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great to know thunderground and str..will pay more attention to her in the future...love the idea of having trainer intention knowledge .had a hunch you were aware of gabby's gig str..she interviewed barclay tagg after he won the feature today..another who she's probably known since she was a kid if her dad was friendly with him..how about him str ? another name who goes back a long way on the md circuit
Last edited by JBEX; 08-20-17 at 10:12 PM.
'Almost unfair advantage' is right, and holds true across the board in any field. When you breathe it in from an early age it runs through your veins and becomes part of you. I didn't know what it was, until I read about her here (right after my jaw dropped to the floor watching that show...), but that is exactly what stood out as she was sitting next to Andy Serling, on his show, and picked winner after winner with an inside knowledge that he clearly could not match. The info she shared was all tied together and integrated. It flowed naturally, intuitively. She just 'knew'.Originally Posted by str
I would guess even or up a little plus the value of the horse.
Obviously just a guess. No idea if the horse was hurt, and how bad, and when this might have taken place. A total guess.
Because I have no idea of timing and injury and when gelded, a guess as to an amount would be a total guess.
But I will say 50k.
Of course. If they were around Md. in my time frame, I know them and they know me.
Barclay must of gotten a kick out of being interviewed by her. He too has known her all her life.
Eddie was always a Bowie guy , training there until it recently closed for all horses.
Barclay was a Laurel guy or Pimlico, whichever was running.
Barclay is a Whiteley raised guy. No nonsense, horses first, all business.
He learned from the guy in your avatar. Strictly business. All horses all the time. That's it.
I was never close to Barclay but we were certainly friendly.
Never walked past him without saying hello. And we would stop and talk sometimes. Usually in the morning though. Maybe while grazing horses or something like that. He was in the next barn over from me towards my last years.
Yep.
That is why I said what I said to JBEX about making money handicapping especially in Md.
It is not that I am some great handicapper .
It is that I know the instincts of everyone there, although as time goes by, it is changing.
And I see things that horses do and how they act that a pure handicapper cannot see in all probability.
When I say I, and other racetrackers spent their time at the track, I mean darn near every minute.
It was our life.
Reading horses became a sixth sense to a degree.
yeah I thought about that watching the interview.. seemed to be
good chemistry between them..
interesting he's a disciple of frank whiteley.. I'm pretty sure shug also came up under him.. sure there's others but those are two very good ones
ok this was great.. learned a lot about some maryland trainers
and brought back some memories for you.. it's all good
It sounds like the stuff that movies are made of.
Do you ever regret walking away? (have you ever thought of going back? - don't you know the guys here could team up, buy a horse, and win the KY Derby with you as trainer?)
only 2 dirt sprints at saratoga
.1=fifth of a second
race 4... 23.2 /46.3 /1:10.4 /123.1/.. clm 16k open fm.. wire job
race 9... 21.2/ 44.1 /1:10. 2 /1:17.2/.. statebred mdn 25k.. wire job R10
track record 1:13.3 .. if grade 1 male sprinters ran in the 9th today probably track record or close to it.. what do you think of the last race str.. you'd think open clm 16k f+m would be faster than statebred mdn clm 25k males.. what happened to that track during the day? the mdn race margin to 2nd was just under 4 lengths
Q. Do you ever regret walking away?It sounds like the stuff that movies are made of.
Do you ever regret walking away? (have you ever thought of going back? - don't you know the guys here could team up, buy a horse, and win the KY Derby with you as trainer?
A. No. And in hindsight, it was the 2nd best decision I ever made in my life.
Q. have you ever thought of going back?
A. Yes. But only in the sense of " I wonder what would have happened had I stayed."
I am deep into the Wash D.C. real estate market ( just another form of gambling, something I have done since I was about 10 or 11 years old when I would putt against my father for nickles on the practice green, which in the 60's and at that age, was a serious bet. It was the cost of a pack of baseball cards, or candy bar. Important stuff for me at that age.)
Q. don't you know the guys here could team up, buy a horse, and win the KY Derby with you as trainer?)
A. If I knew that would happen, I would go back. And not so much for me to win that race, but for all you people to win it and all of us to be a part of it. Now THAT, would be a helluva story. Talk about a movie.
Well, a couple things.
The forth race went the final 1/8th in 12 2/5ths.
The ninth went the last 16th in :07
Half of 12 2/5ths is 6 1/5th.
So if you added 6 1/5th to the 1:10 4/5ths three quarter time you get 1:17 flat.
So from that math, the 4th race did run a bit faster.
And if you do the math the other way and add another 7 seconds it ends up 1:24 2/5ths.
That is 1 and 1/5th slower.
You can do the math adding but that includes the final seconds which can be skewed by easing up so because I did not see the races in question, I won't do that. Maybe I should, but would need to see both replays to get a feel for it.
Also,the first fraction was two full seconds slower. The second fraction was 2 and 2/5ths slower. So too me, the lack of an early hot pace slowed the race down a bit. Not a lot, but it seems to have had an effect on the time.
So if you take those two things into consideration, it might allow something that on the surface makes no sense, to indeed make sense.
The knee jerk thought is to bet back on the state bred winner for sure. It will be interesting to see how that winner runs next out. (But I am not thrilled with the final 1/16th in 7 at all. Kind of a red flag. Really need to see what was happening there. )
Also, I wonder how the others in that race run back. It could be a key race situation. ( Maybe, but that 7 bugs me).
Let's keep an eye on that. ( Let's, meaning let us, meaning let you. Lol.)
If you can do that, it would be fun and maybe profitable as well.
Thanks JBEX. Always enjoy questions like that .
Mainly because it reminds me of my claiming years. I claimed a lot of horses out of situations like that. Don't know all the exact numbers but I remember claiming a few really nice horses with stuff like that. Of course, you only remember the good ones after a while right?
yeah ..true with handicapping too (last thing you said)
although I've learned to be more grounded when i'm
doing well and recall the bad times too but that's more of an "in general" thing
the stunning thing to me was the fast early fractions of the mdn race ..would have to think fillies at that level are a half to a full second faster than very bottom of the heap males..it's not like we're talking a small difference either
so I figure maybe the surface was much quicker for the 9th than the 4th..the slower half furlong (adjusted for 6.5f)
has to be explained by the lightning quick fractions..I would think 4/5th's slower not even that bad considering..as I said it was more the pace than the final time that caught my eye
Are the run ups the same amount of feet for both distances?
Maybe the 6 1/2 starts closer to the timer than the 7/8ths does ?
Just a guess.
Take a look and see if that might have something to do with it.
have a hunch that through observation I'd have a tough time figuring that out..if I remember correctly didn't you once say that the typical difference in times would be about 1 or 2/5th's of a second ?? if that's the case it wouldn't explain the big difference here..no big deal if I don't get to the bottom of this..maybe it's just as simple as the maiden was freaky fast
We'll put it on the back burner, as unlikely but not entirely impossible.
I have to say, though, that the KY Derby has lost some of its appeal since the new point system selects the field. Ever since then the favorite has won the race. Part of the charm of that stampede was that the greatest longshot had a chance.
So it may have to be the BC Classic instead.
hey str
I realized I've asked a lot of questions so if I'm going overboard i apologize lol.. how do you feel you'd do with something like pinhooking or just an advisor at the auctions (maybe you've done the latter on occasion).. seems that would be a good overlap for a long time trainer.. sure there's a lot of hard work that goes along with that also and even someone with a good eye and feel for things can get it wrong often enough.(not including injuries).. do you know of any trainers who've gotten involved with pinhooking after they've stopped training? who would advise big spending buyers on who to purchase at the auctions besides the trainer.. have a hunch I may have asked something like this, but not exactly the same question before but some of it I believe is new.. not good at using the search feature myself
It depends on the severity or lack thereof of the run up. The difference between a 6F. first quarter from Laurel to Pimlico can be 3/5ths or 4/5ths of a second.
That is true. I used to like the owners that just wanted to see their colors in front for a photo op go the first half in 45.
That allowed for some very nice prices before the change.
Q. I realized I've asked a lot of questions so if I'm going overboard i apologize lol.
A. Keep them coming. It's my pleasure.
Q. how do you feel you'd do with something like pinhooking or just an advisor at the auctions (maybe you've done the latter on occasion).. seems that would be a good overlap for a long time trainer.. sure there's a lot of hard work that goes along with that also and even someone with a good eye and feel for things can get it wrong often enough.(not including injuries).
A. It is a job that could fit well for former trainers. But like anything , and especially in this game, you better be ready to work your ass off.
The thing that stood out to me when I went and bought at Keenland, Ocala, Timonium, etc.was the inside info and clicks that were obvious. There was a ton of information about these horses that only select people had full access to. I was around long enough to have plenty of that info funneled too me but certainly not as much as others that were more baby oriented and winning with a first time starter oriented.
I was not that guy.
A lot of consignors wanted their horses to go to people that won races early. That helped shine a good light on their operation. It was all a game within a game.
As for me and how well I would do ? As a pinhooker, probably just average. As an advisor, yes I have done that before while I still trained and I would be ok at that and probably get better as time went on. But my strengths were always at the race track itself. Not as much with yearlings . I was not that rapped up in conformation and scope, etc. which is how weanlings and yearlings are dissected. I was more, analysis of inner talent that had not yet been exposed in the race horse that was racing. Or the opposite . Finding a horse that was thought more of than it should be. And understanding a true value of a horse when it was time to raise that horse up in class or stay the same in price and have it claimed away.
I think all this is true because I never worked on a farm or with yearlings. I always worked at the track, with running horses, and learned not only the horses tendencies but the jocks and the other trainers strengths , weaknesses and tendencies.
And as far as tendencies go, there was no trainer that I ever competed against, and that is a lot of trainers, that masked tendencies, which is crucial to having long term success in the claiming game, than King Leatherbury. That alone should have put him in the Hall.
Q. do you know of any trainers who've gotten involved with pinhooking after they've stopped training?
A. Absolutely. Mark Reid and Jeff Kirk were two excellent trainers and good friends (more Mark than Jeff but only because Mark worked right next to me as a groom back in the day) with lots of success and went on to do that. Mark has since left and I think he went back to training. I last saw him at Saratoga when I was up there visiting Tony D. several years ago. Jeff still does this in Ocala. There are plenty more, but those two guys came to mind right away.
Mark is a great guy and Jeff, lol, what a piece of work he is. He too is great to be around.
Q.who would advise big spending buyers on who to purchase at the auctions besides the trainer..
A. The trainer has a relationship with the consignors, pinhookers and advisors. And if they don't and the consignor has a horse that will bring big money, that consignor will seek out the high end trainers that have the high spending owners. The consignor, more than anyone wants Baffert, Pletcher, or a big name to buy THEIR horse. Because once you are in with someone like that, your business will take off.
I could go on and on about this but I do want to point out that just like any business with a ton of money flying around you have your honest people and your dishonest people. And the dishonest ones will pull some unbelievable stuff on unsuspecting owners, especially if the trainer is compensated some way. It can get pretty ugly if you are not careful. Again, just like any money business, a fool and his money ...
It's a serious case of buyer beware.
And an owner better know that their trainer is honest and actually taking a "owners first" approach, which many trainers do, but some do not, or they will be taken advantage of , and that's putting it mildly.
Making sure that everyone understands, the game is great. But... when you show up with cash you better damn sight know what you are doing and more so than that, have trust in the person you are doing it with.
If you answered this before its fine.
Excuse the writing Im middle of studying.. (Travers day)
What do you make of optional Claiming's..
I don't have the #;s but seems like the ones in for the tag when more often than not...
I know a lot of good horse players that like the angle , backing the horses for the tag
but the firesale angle just doesn't fit for me...
Ty sir
Good Samartian is the winner of travers and I also like my derby horse gunnevera
important to me having a win over the track
Post 2336. Will save you the time for handicapping.
Good luck LKID !!
Over the years, with entries becoming harder and harder to come by, the racing secretary's have been forced to change the condition book.
What they have done is combine a 2 other than or 3 other than or something like that, with a 40k claiming race by re righting the conditions to accommodate both levels or declensions as I call them. It was becoming harder and harder to fill the open 40k spot or 30k or 25k or whatever on it's own. This is especially true on the dirt. Not so much on turf. They tried to keep the level of allowance fairly "on a par" with the level of claiming price. By combining the races, it helped the claimers have a spot to run. It was getting to the point that those races just could not fill on there own. The claimers just could not run as often as they wanted to.
I have to think that most horses in for a tag are horses that actually won that condition ( like 2 allowance races or whatever) at some point earlier in their career but are not stakes grade horses or 4 other than or condition allowance types, so they need a claiming level. When they first started doing this, IMO the claimer had an edge over the allowance horses because ( especially in the spring of each year) they were older and had already won that condition.
It seems to me that at places like Belmont or NY tracks and probably Cal. as well, the allowance horses, many of which still have solid chances of becoming stakes horses, have somewhat of an edge. But in places like Md. or NJ for instance, the older claimers probably have an edge. This is all rule of thumb of course. Each race will dictate how soft or tough a spot it is. That said, I tend to give the horses in for a tag a longer look if I do not see lots of quality in the allowance horses. Usually you can get a decent price on them. Keep an eye on that.
So I think that what you are seeing is pretty much what I described. I don't see any benefit to running a 2 other than in an optional 2 other than for a tag, unless there is a weight break of some sort. But if a trainer would do that, it seems to me that they do not feel the horse can do much more winning after that condition in allowance company.
Let me know if this is not the case.
Hope this helps.
The only horses that are in for a tag are those that have already won that condition without a tag.
It is rare when a true 2OT or whatever is in for a tag.
THAT would be a fire sale suspicion mainly because unless there is a significant weight break AND the trainer thinks the horse can't win further allowance races, it would make no sense to do that.
wow..all interesting stuff. .definitely a bit of an insiders game buying expensive yearlings and makes sense that getting the big name trainers to buy good for the cosigner's business. .remember seeing mark reid's name a lot over the years in the drf..at parx if I remember correctly..also think I read that he was involved in other areas of the business a few times..
can understand there's a difference between recognizing good conformation in a yearling vs trying to get the most out of an older horse. .some overlap but different skill set..
kind of like the difference between a baseball scout and manager..former more to do with spotting the talent and latter working with it..although in the claiming game guessing the trainer does have a lot to do with acquisitions and how he might improve or maintain that horses potential ..appreciate your response as always
Yes. The trainer usually has a lot to do with claiming a horse. I sure did.Probably 98% of my claims were my choice.
As for the rest of what you said, I couldn't have said it any better myself.
On a side note from yesterdays Travers in Saratoga, Always Dreaming, our Ky. Derby winner ran a terrible, no make that awful race. He was a beaten horse and out of gas 1/2 way down the backside.
Not being around him, I cannot say what the problem is, but unless it is something that is an easy fix ( like he lost his front shoes early in the race), something really out there, I would await the announcement of his retirement in the coming days or weeks.
He still has stallion value at this point being the Derby winner but another race or two like that and his value will plummet.
Very little upside and a ton of downside. If they throw in the old injured in the Travers trick( maybe he was but I doubt it), his accomplishments still hold water. At this point it is strictly a monetary decision.
what do you think about trying him as a sprinter.. theses are the things I find interesting about his pedigree..
cost 350k as a yearling and dam has 7 winners from as many starters including 2 stakes winners.. the dam production index is an off the charts 14.03 so he has to have at least one sibling who's a major runner.. he was able to break his maiden 2nd time out at saratoga as a 2yo at 6f.. the biggest reason though is the dam sire "in excess".. I would say of any sire I have ever seen I have never seen one who has as high a sire production index and yet has an average winning distance as low as 6.1f..very rare and he's been around a long time ... you think they might consider this?
let me make a correction..he was 2nd by a neck in his 2nd career start at saratoga earning a solid 88 beyer..maiden breaker was following start at tampa bay..the pace in the preakness was ridiculously fast according to brisnet
..over a second to the 1st call and close to 2 seconds to the 6f mark..I realize you're not a fan of figures but just thought I'd mention..It just seems to me with the way he runs in routes and that "in excess" blood on the bottom
that maybe he'd be a decent one turn horse..it would be rare to switch a derby winner back to sprints that's for sure..I wouldn't even think this way if it were any other dam sire..as I said he's the only one I can think of with low 6's awd and a high spi ..all the others are at least mid 6's
as a frame of reference most of the elites (tapit,war front,curlin, medaglia de oro,distored humor,giant's causeway,bernardini)
average in the mid 7's
speightstown is 6.5f at 100k stud which is low for sires in this category. .big sample with him
Last edited by JBEX; 08-28-17 at 07:04 AM.
Q. .I realize you're not a fan of figures but just thought I'd mention.
A. Actually I am OK with most figures. It's Beyer figs that I do not like, especially at smaller tracks. And Beyer lingo like bounce.
Q. .It just seems to me with the way he runs in routes and that "in excess" blood on the bottom
that maybe he'd be a decent one turn horse.
A. I think if it was anyone but a Triple Crown race winner it would be worth a try.Winning the Derby is a status that few ever get. Winning sprint stakes afterward doesn't seem to do anything but confuse the legacy that one win gave him IMO. I would be afraid he would never be part of a Derby conversation again. But he probably won't be anyway right?
honestly wasn't thinking about status before but now that you bring it up I don't think that win is going to give him "a lot" of stallion value.. the way he did it and the kind of track it was.. then bombing out twice
in the jim dandy and travers.. obviously not an expert in this area but that's just the feeling I get.. heard they were sending him to rood and riddle to get looked at.. I also read, and this goes along with the speedy dam sire, that the dam was an exceptional sprinter out in california.... if he comes out of that exam sound I'm gonna take a shot and say they are going to try him around one turn.. belmont has the grade 3 bold ruler on 10/28 @ 7f and aqueduct has the grade 3 fall highweight around thanksgiving @ 6f
.. or maybe they could put in an alw nc race for him to test the waters.. they do that sometimes in a situation like this correct? be interesting to see what they do if he comes up physically sound
a few more questions relating to this.. just want to say that I'm just having a little fun with this and don't mean to come off as a know it all.. think it's an interesting set of circumstances with this horse and would be cool if I guessed right.. that's it
according to brisnet the pace in the maiden breaker at tampa and the n1xot win at GP were extremely
slow paces.. you think that could've helped him in the florida derby win as not a lot taken out of him in those but at the same time he got enough out of them to be useful tighteners? maybe he came up to the florida derby just right for a peak effort
is it possible that besides him getting into good position in the derby and being on the right part of the track that he also took to the churchill slop better than some of the others?
with the name of the horse and the ownership being a bunch of friends from brooklyn you think they may have pushed todd into trying for the glory in triple crown races rather than going a sprinter/miler path? obviously not a mistake with what he did but maybe over the long haul he would be a better short horse.. takes some talent to just miss by a neck in your 2nd start at saratoga at 6f as a 2yo
hey guys, quickly, how creative can you get with writing off losses? If I hit a big multirace do I usually just write off other multirace wagers that lost during the year, or depending on the amount, do you try to write off 50-60% of your win typically? Just wondering if you all ever had to do this. I don't declare as a pro
From Bloodhorse: Always Dreaming to Stand at WinStar Farm after retirement.
yes easy but it's still undecided whether he'll race again..
I did a little more research into who his top half sibling is ..
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Dixie_Chick
Last edited by JBEX; 08-31-17 at 09:39 AM.
Q. a few more questions relating to this.. just want to say that I'm just having a little fun with this and don't mean to come off as a know it all.. think it's an interesting set of circumstances with this horse and would be cool if I guessed right.. that's it
A. I totally get that.
Q. according to brisnet the pace in the maiden breaker at tampa and the n1xot win at GP were extremely
slow paces.. you think that could've helped him in the florida derby win as not a lot taken out of him in those but at the same time he got enough out of them to be useful tighteners? maybe he came up to the florida derby just right for a peak effort
A. It certainly could have.
Q. is it possible that besides him getting into good position in the derby and being on the right part of the track that he also took to the churchill slop better than some of the others?
A. Absolutely.
Q. with the name of the horse and the ownership being a bunch of friends from brooklyn you think they may have pushed todd into trying for the glory in triple crown races rather than going a sprinter/miler path? obviously not a mistake with what he did but maybe over the long haul he would be a better short horse.. takes some talent to just miss by a neck in your 2nd start at saratoga at 6f as a 2yo
A. Probably not. It is very hard to not try a horse like that early in the 3 year old year to go longer. Long is where the gravy is. And it worked out very well, at least for a while.
I think my problem with this horse is that I have seen an all or nothing effort that seemingly has to do with position and pressure to his right or a lack thereof. That too me, is a horse that runs with very little heart. That might be unfair, but I have seen very little to think otherwise. I will say that his run through the lane with Cloud Computing when he was 3rd , two races back was at least an effort. But that's it.
Usually money dictates these decisions and while it might very well be a solid decision to try and convert him, I am not sure that decision has more value than finding something subtle that was wrong with him , that has probably been with him since early May ( wink, wink) that caused him to falter. That is usually what happens.
Now if he was a gelding, I'm all over your theory. I think it's a great idea.
In order to try and show loses, you will need to keep pretty good records. Don't show just losses. That makes it look like you won with one ticket and lost every other race you played. Show what days you went to the track, your wins and losses for that day, and every other day, and hopefully you can get that taxable number down. Pretty sure you can show cost of racing form, parking, program, etc. as well as saving losing tickets. It's a good bit of work but it can be worth it.
Hope that helps.
That will put more pressure on the connections to retire him which is typical. Again, it's all about money and pros and cons of earnings with whatever decision is made. Kind of a shame for race fans and the game, but I understand why it happens.
Thanks for the reply.
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