[JBEX]

hey mr g n t..hope str doesn't mind me giving an opinion here but zito and lukas are my two least favorite trainers especially the latter..realize each will get a half way decent or really good horse on occasion (last 15 years)
but to me seems their batting average is poor relative to what they get to work with..one of zito's biggest previous clients who has deep pockets (robert lapenta) has most of his horses with rudy and todd now..this is just off the top of my head of course and possibly could be wrong

[mrginandtonic]

hey mr g n t..hope str doesn't mind me giving an opinion here but zito and lukas are my two least favorite trainers especially the latter..realize each will get a half way decent or really good horse on occasion (last 15 years)
but to me seems their batting average is poor relative to what they get to work with..one of zito's biggest previous clients who has deep pockets (robert lapenta) has most of his horses with rudy and todd now..this is just off the top of my head of course and possibly could be wrong

Hey Jbex, I'm with you. Not a fan of either one of them either. I understand they both lost a lot of clients but they still have clients and have horses that are not cheap. But their winning percentage is awful. It is almost an automatic throw out for me when I see them. So I don't understand why they are doing so poorly.

[JBEX]

Hey Jbex, I'm with you. Not a fan of either one of them either. I understand they both lost a lot of clients but they still have clients and have horses that are not cheap. But their winning percentage is awful. It is almost an automatic throw out for me when I see them. So I don't understand why they are doing so poorly.

zito doesn't get the level or depth of good horses as lukas does I'm pretty sure..in general as I said they are way under performers. .as you said low win % and with lukas just seem to be a lot of very expensive horses up for a tag way too often

[JBEX]

hey str..just figured I'd pass on "thebigfundamental" (6-5) is running in R1 @ belmont tomorrow (#6)...I like chad brown's (#7) ..see how he goes 2nd out

posted this 4/27 and he broke his maiden by 8.5 lengths..going for n1x tomorrow in R1 @ belmont ..as you may remember we discussed his debut effort where he finished 2nd by less than a length.. figured I'd let you know just for the heck of it

[str]

Forgive me if this is in the thread somewhere but I was wondering if I could get some info on Run Styles as it relates to Brisnet PP's..

My question is this, On Brisnet running styles are listed as E, E/P,P,S and N/A. I often hear terms like Stalker, Stretch runners and etc. I guess I'm having trouble putting the 2 together to find what is what. So is an E/P considered a stalker or Stretch runner...Maybe I just have to look deeper in the PP's at the call splits.

Page 14 post 469 speaks to this.

There are many others around that time period as well.

As for the brisnet codes, I dont look at it but probably E is early speed e/p is early speed or position, position ( laying 3rd or 4th) s probably stalk like 4th or 5th n/a maybe deep closer ?

I might suggest that you should NEVER rely on others to put a race together for you. Do it yourself. It initially only takes a couple of minutes. From there, as you really get a handle on the race, you can adjust your thinking. Also scratches are KEY to all this. Please read on page 14 about a late scratch that helped me out in a race.

In due time, you will be better at it than the person putting it in print.

Also, please don't fall in love with Beyer numbers.

I always said ( in this thread 4-5 years ago, that Beyer numbers are terribly flawed. They , over time, have shown that over and over with adjustments, etc.
And the bounce stuff is outrageously overrated. IMO the term was invented to mask the flaws of Beyer numbers.
I spoke to that on or around page 14 as well.

About 10% of "bounces" actually occur. All the rest is due to trips, running against better horses, pace, etc.

Honestly, the over use of the term bounce is utter nonsense.

Just an excuse when a short priced horse loses.

And it exonerates the handicapper from fault if they picked that horse.

How convenient.

[str]

Hi Sir STR, something came to mind as I was looking at the form for tomorrow. Why is it that once a well known and well established trainer, such as Mr Lukas and Mr Zito, they are now wining at such low percentage?? The horses that they trained are still expensive yearlings. Another one would be Mr Jack can Berg, but he seemed to be doing better now that he moved out of the Southern California circuit. Is it the way they train??

Well Mr. G and T that is a question without one answer.

No, I don't think it is the way they train. And they have not forgotten HOW to train. But the system they had either no longer works or they themselves have changed. Probably the latter .

Believe it or not, confidence is huge in this business. Having experienced being way up AND way down during my career, I have felt both. When I was way up, I was quite cocky inside, ( not outwardly, that's not my style), but my confidence as to what I could achieve was limitless. I was not reckless however. Always business like in my decisions.That said,I would claim horses that could not or never won . I would do my work and boom, they would win. I was rolling. For many years. I probably would have been accused of using drugs with some of the turn arounds my horse achieved. That was never the case but in today's world everyone has an opinion so I am sure I would have found that frustrating.
But.. when times got tough, everything seemed harder. And of course, because you didn't have all the resources you used to when times were better, there was added pressure to not make a mistake. As a trainer or an athlete, you just can't do that. Like a batter getting into the box and wanting to make sure they don't strike out. With that mind set, you are dead before you start. Same thing with training. Confidence carries over to the horse, jock, employees, etc.
Without it, everything gets very tough. And sometimes a trainer like that is trying so hard to win a big one to shine a light on them that had they trained many more and had others to run in those grade 1's, they might have taken a 30-1 shot from some big name race, and run it in grade 2's or 3's or allowance races and been the favorite and won several times. But they are trying to hit a home run. And the pressure to try and do that in any competitive sport is tremendous.
Another reason can be not wanting to lose the horse in a claiming race. This holds more trainers down than anything. Afraid to lose their horse because they need that small amount of income to keep afloat. But if you are rolling, you win, lose them, and claim two more.
Show me a constantly low % trainer and in most cases, it's where they place their horses in races.

Again, having lived both sides of it, I do not think anything is more difficult then pulling out of a prolonged slump or bad times with slow horses. I was able to do it, but I never got all the way back to where I was when I was the new kid in town.
In hindsight, it was probably a good thing in that, it allowed me to better appreciate what I had before as well as prepare me for later in life, ( now), when things are once again great, but I have that age and experience thing behind me. You can't buy that. You have to live it as I am sure you know. And as you also know, the word experience is code for learning about something because chances are you made plenty of mistakes prior to having that "experience". As long as you don't make the same ones twice you are doing pretty darn good I guess.

Sorry I can't explain better but it is truly an intangible that once it hits, it is very hard to shake. Zito really surprises me. He's a darn good trainer and a really nice, well grounded guy. Van Berg trained hundreds at a time and now has a fraction of that. Never knew Jack at all so it's hard for me to say more. Lukas does not surprise me with all that he created, and the way he did things, and then the tragic accident with his son and his passing recently. Wayne's world( no pun intended) came crashing down. I am amazed he still trains at all but it's that or quit and die I guess so I can't blame him. It's all he knows.

[str]

hey mr g n t..hope str doesn't mind me giving an opinion here but zito and lukas are my two least favorite trainers especially the latter..realize each will get a half way decent or really good horse on occasion (last 15 years)
but to me seems their batting average is poor relative to what they get to work with..one of zito's biggest previous clients who has deep pockets (robert lapenta) has most of his horses with rudy and todd now..this is just off the top of my head of course and possibly could be wrong

With this being the case JBEX, sounds like Zito gets the scrapes after the other two take the best ones, and he probably tries to make them something they are not capable of being, so they rarely win which leads to the low %. Makes sense anyway.
Can't blame the owner, he wants to win. Have to applaud him for at least still supporting Nick at all. Many would just walk away from him.

[str]

Hey Jbex, I'm with you. Not a fan of either one of them either. I understand they both lost a lot of clients but they still have clients and have horses that are not cheap. But their winning percentage is awful. It is almost an automatic throw out for me when I see them. So I don't understand why they are doing so poorly.

Chances are they cost a lot but have since proven to be not worth the purchase price for one reason or another.
So Nick tries to hit a home run with them I guess and his % shows it rarely happens.
I guess that is what is going on.

Can't blame you for that auto throw either. I rarely if ever play real low % trainers. Typically do just what you do, providing they don't land in a perfect set up. Even then, it can be hard to bet real money into that.

[str]

posted this 4/27 and he broke his maiden by 8.5 lengths..going for n1x tomorrow in R1 @ belmont ..as you may remember we discussed his debut effort where he finished 2nd by less than a length.. figured I'd let you know just for the heck of it

Thanks JBEX!

Sounds like they are wanting to run some wins together if he is good enough by sticking to the easiest conditions at least for now.

[JBEX]

Thanks JBEX!

Sounds like they are wanting to run some wins together if he is good enough by sticking to the easiest conditions at least for now.

np..purse today for this race upped to 90K so close to listed stakes money

[JBEX]

With this being the case JBEX, sounds like Zito gets the scrapes after the other two take the best ones, and he probably tries to make them something they are not capable of being, so they rarely win which leads to the low %. Makes sense anyway.
Can't blame the owner, he wants to win. Have to applaud him for at least still supporting Nick at all. Many would just walk away from him.

No I didn't explain it well..zito has none of lapenta's horses..the two i mentioned above and also saw chad brown has one of his today .. pretty nice to have those 3 tending to your horses..this guy tends to buy in the 150-500k range so nice to get his business

[Buckandadime]

Mr str: you sir, are a stud!! Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts, memories and wealth of knowledge to us less fortunate.. Hope one day I can pay back what you have given...

[mrginandtonic]

Well Mr. G and T that is a question without one answer.

No, I don't think it is the way they train. And they have not forgotten HOW to train. But the system they had either no longer works or they themselves have changed. Probably the latter .

Believe it or not, confidence is huge in this business. Having experienced being way up AND way down during my career, I have felt both. When I was way up, I was quite cocky inside, ( not outwardly, that's not my style), but my confidence as to what I could achieve was limitless. I was not reckless however. Always business like in my decisions.That said,I would claim horses that could not or never won . I would do my work and boom, they would win. I was rolling. For many years. I probably would have been accused of using drugs with some of the turn arounds my horse achieved. That was never the case but in today's world everyone has an opinion so I am sure I would have found that frustrating.
But.. when times got tough, everything seemed harder. And of course, because you didn't have all the resources you used to when times were better, there was added pressure to not make a mistake. As a trainer or an athlete, you just can't do that. Like a batter getting into the box and wanting to make sure they don't strike out. With that mind set, you are dead before you start. Same thing with training. Confidence carries over to the horse, jock, employees, etc.
Without it, everything gets very tough. And sometimes a trainer like that is trying so hard to win a big one to shine a light on them that had they trained many more and had others to run in those grade 1's, they might have taken a 30-1 shot from some big name race, and run it in grade 2's or 3's or allowance races and been the favorite and won several times. But they are trying to hit a home run. And the pressure to try and do that in any competitive sport is tremendous.
Another reason can be not wanting to lose the horse in a claiming race. This holds more trainers down than anything. Afraid to lose their horse because they need that small amount of income to keep afloat. But if you are rolling, you win, lose them, and claim two more.
Show me a constantly low % trainer and in most cases, it's where they place their horses in races.

Again, having lived both sides of it, I do not think anything is more difficult then pulling out of a prolonged slump or bad times with slow horses. I was able to do it, but I never got all the way back to where I was when I was the new kid in town.
In hindsight, it was probably a good thing in that, it allowed me to better appreciate what I had before as well as prepare me for later in life, ( now), when things are once again great, but I have that age and experience thing behind me. You can't buy that. You have to live it as I am sure you know. And as you also know, the word experience is code for learning about something because chances are you made plenty of mistakes prior to having that "experience". As long as you don't make the same ones twice you are doing pretty darn good I guess.

Sorry I can't explain better but it is truly an intangible that once it hits, it is very hard to shake. Zito really surprises me. He's a darn good trainer and a really nice, well grounded guy. Van Berg trained hundreds at a time and now has a fraction of that. Never knew Jack at all so it's hard for me to say more. Lukas does not surprise me with all that he created, and the way he did things, and then the tragic accident with his son and his passing recently. Wayne's world( no pun intended) came crashing down. I am amazed he still trains at all but it's that or quit and die I guess so I can't blame him. It's all he knows.

Thank you very much for your insight. I guess I can understand that they are still trying to get that "home run" and they don't want to risk losing horses in their stable in claiming races. In a way, I feel bad for them because it is almost like a former heavy weight champ trying to come back, but never happens....

So, what are your thoughts on the Belmont today?? From what I have read, a lot of people think it is going to be some crazy long shot, but personally, I think it comes down to Tapwrit, Patch (the two Pletcher horses) and Irish War Cry. I like them cuz them because of their tactical speed running style and from their breeding, they should be able to take the distance. I think Tapwrit or IWC has the best shot. Their odds will actually be good for being one of the favorites.

[str]

No I didn't explain it well..zito has none of lapenta's horses..the two i mentioned above and also saw chad brown has one of his today .. pretty nice to have those 3 tending to your horses..this guy tends to buy in the 150-500k range so nice to get his business

Oh.

Well that makes his comeback attempts even harder doesn't it.

Darn nice guy but seems to have lost his edge.

[str]

Thank you very much for your insight. I guess I can understand that they are still trying to get that "home run" and they don't want to risk losing horses in their stable in claiming races. In a way, I feel bad for them because it is almost like a former heavy weight champ trying to come back, but never happens....

So, what are your thoughts on the Belmont today?? From what I have read, a lot of people think it is going to be some crazy long shot, but personally, I think it comes down to Tapwrit, Patch (the two Pletcher horses) and Irish War Cry. I like them cuz them because of their tactical speed running style and from their breeding, they should be able to take the distance. I think Tapwrit or IWC has the best shot. Their odds will actually be good for being one of the favorites.

Q. So, what are your thoughts on the Belmont today?? From what I have read, a lot of people think it is going to be some crazy long shot, but personally, I think it comes down to Tapwrit, Patch (the two Pletcher horses) and Irish War Cry. I like them cuz them because of their tactical speed running style and from their breeding, they should be able to take the distance. I think Tapwrit or IWC has the best shot. Their odds will actually be good for being one of the favorites.[/QUOTE]

A. The Belmont is my favorite race to bet on of the 3 triple crown races.

This year, I do not see one horse that I can really like, especially the favorites, so I am chasing the prices with J Boys Echo and Patch on top of tri's and supers with Gormley, Hollywood Handsome,Irish War Cry and the other top horse.
So a tri and super key of 4-3,5,7,12 and 12-3,4,5,7,. Maybe use them both keyed second as well. Just need to figure out the costs involved. Wanted to use the one but saw he is currently 7-1. Unreal. He should be 27-1 so I tossed him because of the bad price.
Will throw some at exacta's as well depending on the payouts with those horses mentioned.
I won't go crazy because this too me is a shot race. Put up 2 figures, and if you win you get back 3 and 4 figures. Like Palace Malice a few years ago. Don't have to hit many when you play like that.
I had to leave several off the ticket including Tapwrit. Can he win. sure. I just cant handle his Blue Grass race. I don't get it. But in a race like this, and looking to hit a bomb, you have to take stands against most less than 8-1. Had to use Irish War Cry because of Graham and his family. I shared a barn with him back in the day . He is a friend I always root for. And I am a bit of a sucker for the every other good race line that his form shows. Last 4 were good, bad, good, bad, so ?? good??.

GL sir. All the best.

[mrginandtonic]

Q. So, what are your thoughts on the Belmont today?? From what I have read, a lot of people think it is going to be some crazy long shot, but personally, I think it comes down to Tapwrit, Patch (the two Pletcher horses) and Irish War Cry. I like them cuz them because of their tactical speed running style and from their breeding, they should be able to take the distance. I think Tapwrit or IWC has the best shot. Their odds will actually be good for being one of the favorites.

A. The Belmont is my favorite race to bet on of the 3 triple crown races.

This year, I do not see one horse that I can really like, especially the favorites, so I am chasing the prices with J Boys Echo and Patch on top of tri's and supers with Gormley, Hollywood Handsome,Irish War Cry and the other top horse.
So a tri and super key of 4-3,5,7,12 and 12-3,4,5,7,. Maybe use them both keyed second as well. Just need to figure out the costs involved. Wanted to use the one but saw he is currently 7-1. Unreal. He should be 27-1 so I tossed him because of the bad price.
Will throw some at exacta's as well depending on the payouts with those horses mentioned.
I won't go crazy because this too me is a shot race. Put up 2 figures, and if you win you get back 3 and 4 figures. Like Palace Malice a few years ago. Don't have to hit many when you play like that.
I had to leave several off the ticket including Tapwrit. Can he win. sure. I just cant handle his Blue Grass race. I don't get it. But in a race like this, and looking to hit a bomb, you have to take stands against most less than 8-1. Had to use Irish War Cry because of Graham and his family. I shared a barn with him back in the day . He is a friend I always root for. And I am a bit of a sucker for the every other good race line that his form shows. Last 4 were good, bad, good, bad, so ?? good??.

GL sir. All the best.[/QUOTE]

As always, thank you for your inputs. I will be rooting for Irish War Cry as well. I like Graham and I love Smart Strike as the grand sire.

[JBEX]

Thank you very much for your insight. I guess I can understand that they are still trying to get that "home run" and they don't want to risk losing horses in their stable in claiming races. In a way, I feel bad for them because it is almost like a former heavy weight champ trying to come back, but never happens....

So, what are your thoughts on the Belmont today?? From what I have read, a lot of people think it is going to be some crazy long shot, but personally, I think it comes down to Tapwrit, Patch (the two Pletcher horses) and Irish War Cry. I like them cuz them because of their tactical speed running style and from their breeding, they should be able to take the distance. I think Tapwrit or IWC has the best shot. Their odds will actually be good for being one of the favorites.

nice job mr g n t

[mrginandtonic]

nice job mr g n t

Haha thanks JBex, but only if I wasn't so convinced that IWC would win, I would have made a killing today. Instead, it is one of the worst days in recent memory.

[JBEX]

Haha thanks JBex, but only if I wasn't so convinced that IWC would win, I would have made a killing today. Instead, it is one of the worst days in recent memory.

i can see taking a heavier position with iwc on top of the other two but you gotta walk away doing well with what you said..too bad !!

[JBEX]

Thanks JBEX!

Sounds like they are wanting to run some wins together if he is good enough by sticking to the easiest conditions at least for now.

hey str..if you happened to miss it tbf won by 3 lengths..stalked the lone front runner, moved alongside approaching the stretch and pulled away comfortably..there were 6 weeks between starts 1 and 2 and the same amount of time between starts 2 and 3..assuming he came out of race in good shape and with saratoga exactly 6 weeks away would you prefer he attempts n2x at belmont vs heading up north ?? ..guess a listed stakes wouldn't be a bad choice if one came up 4-6 weeks away ..looked closely again and man he's a massive horse as you said..it'd be wrong if big wasn't used somewhere in his name lol

[JBEX]

hey str..if you happened to miss it tbf won by 3 lengths..stalked the lone front runner, moved alongside approaching the stretch and pulled away comfortably..there were 6 weeks between starts 1 and 2 and the same amount of time between starts 2 and 3..assuming he came out of race in good shape and with saratoga exactly 6 weeks away would you prefer he attempts n2x at belmont vs heading up north ?? ..guess a listed stakes wouldn't be a bad choice if one came up 4-6 weeks away ..looked closely again and man he's a massive horse as you said..it'd be wrong if big wasn't used somewhere in his name lol

my description of the race was a little off..here's from the chart..

THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL broke well and remained forwardly placed, pursued the leader from the three path on the turn, closed the gap after three-quarters
had been run, issued a confident challenge spinning into the stretch, was almost a half in front when asked for more travelling in the furlong grounds, gave it willingly and kicked clear

[str]

Thank you very much for your insight. I guess I can understand that they are still trying to get that "home run" and they don't want to risk losing horses in their stable in claiming races. In a way, I feel bad for them because it is almost like a former heavy weight champ trying to come back, but never happens....

So, what are your thoughts on the Belmont today?? From what I have read, a lot of people think it is going to be some crazy long shot, but personally, I think it comes down to Tapwrit, Patch (the two Pletcher horses) and Irish War Cry. I like them cuz them because of their tactical speed running style and from their breeding, they should be able to take the distance. I think Tapwrit or IWC has the best shot. Their odds will actually be good for being one of the favorites.

Great call Mr. G and T !!

[str]

hey str..if you happened to miss it tbf won by 3 lengths..stalked the lone front runner, moved alongside approaching the stretch and pulled away comfortably..there were 6 weeks between starts 1 and 2 and the same amount of time between starts 2 and 3..assuming he came out of race in good shape and with saratoga exactly 6 weeks away would you prefer he attempts n2x at belmont vs heading up north ?? ..guess a listed stakes wouldn't be a bad choice if one came up 4-6 weeks away ..looked closely again and man he's a massive horse as you said..it'd be wrong if big wasn't used somewhere in his name lol

Being a 4 year old, it is obvious that he had physical problems as a 3 year old. Probably due to his size , action or just bad luck. Whatever the case, a 2 other than going long would be the easiest place for him to continue .
He would be 8-5 and have a nice shot at continuing forward.
The Alydar Stakes on Aug. 6th is the easiest Stake for him to try but the timing is such that he would need to run in 4 weeks and back in that in 4 weeks. Or wait 8 weeks for that. Also, that race will be ( should be) much tougher than a 2 other than ( usually about 6-10 lengths depending who shows up). Not sure why he would want to do that.
Being a gelding, there is little point in hurrying him into anything. So if he stays on script, the 2 other than fits like a glove while at Saratoga in about 6 weeks.
Just run once, probably win, and find a 3 other than the first two weeks of the Belmont fall meet . Win that, and find a Stake in mid to late October that is not too ambitious and he is 8-5 again. That will take patience . But again, what's the hurry to make him run so hard.
Time will tell.
All this kind of speaks to what we talked about yesterday with placing horses in correct spots and higher % vs. lower % trainers.
I think there is little doubt that D. Wayne would have him in a stake at Saratoga. Don't know why Todd would want to. Take the win, he might need it to get leading trainer up there this year.

[JBEX]

Being a 4 year old, it is obvious that he had physical problems as a 3 year old. Probably due to his size , action or just bad luck. Whatever the case, a 2 other than going long would be the easiest place for him to continue .
He would be 8-5 and have a nice shot at continuing forward.
The Alydar Stakes on Aug. 6th is the easiest Stake for him to try but the timing is such that he would need to run in 4 weeks and back in that in 4 weeks. Or wait 8 weeks for that. Also, that race will be ( should be) much tougher than a 2 other than ( usually about 6-10 lengths depending who shows up). Not sure why he would want to do that.
Being a gelding, there is little point in hurrying him into anything. So if he stays on script, the 2 other than fits like a glove while at Saratoga in about 6 weeks.
Just run once, probably win, and find a 3 other than the first two weeks of the Belmont fall meet . Win that, and find a Stake in mid to late October that is not too ambitious and he is 8-5 again. That will take patience . But again, what's the hurry to make him run so hard.
Time will tell.
All this kind of speaks to what we talked about yesterday with placing horses in correct spots and higher % vs. lower % trainers.
I think there is little doubt that D. Wayne would have him in a stake at Saratoga. Don't know why Todd would want to. Take the win, he might need it to get leading trainer up there this year.

I agree with you one notch at a time and as you said lukas would probably have her in the alydar..heck maybe the whitney lol..have a few other questions relating to this..

I tried looking yesterday but couldn't find..are all races for saratoga planned out already or just the stakes ?

you think this horse might be better suited for belmont..seems to me that he's more of a grinder which may have to do with his size..is this something pletcher
or any good trainer would be thinking about at this point ?

saw saratoga also has a 7f listed stakes on Aug 3 I believe..if you decided to go the stakes path
I'm guessing you'd prefer 9f rather than 7f..my thought was he was going one turn mile at belmont so maybe the longer sprint wouldn't be a bad fit ?

[str]

I agree with you one notch at a time and as you said lukas would probably have her in the alydar..heck maybe the whitney lol..have a few other questions relating to this..

I tried looking yesterday but couldn't find..are all races for saratoga planned out already or just the stakes ?

you think this horse might be better suited for belmont..seems to me that he's more of a grinder which may have to do with his size..is this something pletcher
or any good trainer would be thinking about at this point ?

saw saratoga also has a 7f listed stakes on Aug 3 I believe..if you decided to go the stakes path
I'm guessing you'd prefer 9f rather than 7f..my thought was he was going one turn mile at belmont so maybe the longer sprint wouldn't be a bad fit ?

Q. .are all races for saratoga planned out already or just the stakes ?

A. The book usually comes out about 4 weeks before a new meet.

Q. you think this horse might be better suited for belmont..seems to me that he's more of a grinder which may have to do with his size..is this something pletcher
or any good trainer would be thinking about at this point ?

A. Absolutely
A very large horse loves wider turns. But he should be ok for Saratoga around 2 if he is the best horse in the race.

Q. saw saratoga also has a 7f listed stakes on Aug 3 I believe..if you decided to go the stakes path
I'm guessing you'd prefer 9f rather than 7f..my thought was he was going one turn mile at belmont so maybe the longer sprint wouldn't be a bad fit ?

A. Think that one is fillies and mares.

But to the 2nd question.

I do not know this horse at all so I am assuming quite a bit but if he is that big, and it took that long to get him to the races, tighter turns and a shorter distance against much better company is throwing 3 road blocks at him that do not need to exist. (IMO).
Try 2 turns at Saratoga ( unless there is some type of breathing restriction that he is dealing with and if so, 1 1/16th which was yesterdays distance), keep him comfortable, as well as probably the best horse and get him back to Belmont for the fall. As he tries better company, try and give him things to lean on, like wider turns, slower early splits and a track you know he likes, as the task will constantly get tougher. Give him as much help as you can and there are no regrets. That was always the way I tried to play it.

[JBEX]

Q. .are all races for saratoga planned out already or just the stakes ?

A. The book usually comes out about 4 weeks before a new meet.

Q. you think this horse might be better suited for belmont..seems to me that he's more of a grinder which may have to do with his size..is this something pletcher
or any good trainer would be thinking about at this point ?

A. Absolutely
A very large horse loves wider turns. But he should be ok for Saratoga around 2 if he is the best horse in the race.

Q. saw saratoga also has a 7f listed stakes on Aug 3 I believe..if you decided to go the stakes path
I'm guessing you'd prefer 9f rather than 7f..my thought was he was going one turn mile at belmont so maybe the longer sprint wouldn't be a bad fit ?

A. Think that one is fillies and mares.

But to the 2nd question.

I do not know this horse at all so I am assuming quite a bit but if he is that big, and it took that long to get him to the races, tighter turns and a shorter distance against much better company is throwing 3 road blocks at him that do not need to exist. (IMO).
Try 2 turns at Saratoga ( unless there is some type of breathing restriction that he is dealing with and if so, 1 1/16th which was yesterdays distance), keep him comfortable, as well as probably the best horse and get him back to Belmont for the fall. As he tries better company, try and give him things to lean on, like wider turns, slower early splits and a track you know he likes, as the task will constantly get tougher. Give him as much help as you can and there are no regrets. That was always the way I tried to play it.

yes you are right about that 8/3 stakes being for fillies..from what you've said I'd avoid 7f at saratoga even if it were a n2x..only way I'd consider that condition would be at 1 1/8 miles..can see best idea is keep horse in his comfort zone as far as distance,track and company..no rush be patient and the good spots will come his way..appreciate your insights str and of course he's in my stable. .keep you posted when he goes next time

[mrginandtonic]

Great call Mr. G and T !!

Thank you sir.

[Favova]

hi guys new here just a quick questioni had the vertical oak on belmont 9th race and he was supposed to be scrached , my guys marked it up as a loss is this right? plus i had him in 3 - 3 horse boxes isnt that supposed to be canceled? thanks for your time

2017/06/11 05:30 PM

236032

Belmont Park Race 9 - (Loss) $100.00 To Win $100.00 To Place - Horse 1 Total cost $200.00

Straight

200.00

0.00

-200.00

2017/06/11 05:30 PM	236033	Belmont Park Race 9 - (Win) $100.00 To Win $100.00 To Place - Horse 7 Total cost $200.00	Straight	200.00	5.00	5.00
	2017/06/11 05:31 PM	236034	Belmont Park Race 9 - (Loss) $33.00 Exacta Box - Horses 1,3,7 6 Combinations - Total cost $198.00	Exacta Box 33.00	198.00	0.00	-198.00
	2017/06/11 05:32 PM	236035	Belmont Park Race 9 - (Loss) $17.00 Exacta Box - Horses 3,5,7 6 Combinations - Total cost $102.00	Exacta Box 17.00	102.00	0.00	-102.00
	2017/06/11 05:36 PM	236036	Belmont Park Race 9 - (Loss) $23.00 Exacta Box - Horses 1,5,7 6 Combinations - Total cost $138.00	Exacta Box 23.00	138.00	0.00	-138.00
	2017/06/11 05:43 PM	236042	Belmont Park Race 9 - (Loss) $10.00 Exacta Box - Horses 3,4,7 6 Combinations - Total cost $60.00	Exacta Box 10.00	60.00	0.00	-60.00
	2017/06/11 05:44 PM	236044	Belmont Park Race 9 - (Loss) $10.00 Exacta Box - Horses 1,4,7 6 Combinations - Total cost $60.00	Exacta Box 10.00	60.00	0.00	-60.00
	2017/06/11 06:09 PM	236060	Belmont Park Race 10 - (Loss) $200.00 To Win $200.00 To Place - Horse 11 Total cost $400.00	Straight	400.00	0.00	-400.00
	2017/06/11 06:12 PM	236062	Belmont Park Race 10 - (Loss) $20.00 Exacta Box - Horses 9,10,11 6 Combinations - Total cost $120.00	Exacta Box 20.00	120.00	0.00	-120.00

[Favova]

thats a big swing

[harthebar]

thats a big swing

its a not a bet ...no play... a refund....just on him.......if you had him boxed in there with lets say 3 horses..........you should get charged as a 2 horse box.............your not playing into a live pari mutual right..are you .......your playing it with a book.....what might of happenend your box just saw he wasnt a winner.........without knowing he got scrached...i just looked again didnt see the other part of screen...you should of got charged as a 2 horse combo not 3 which cuts the loss by a lot

Belmont Park Race 9 - (Loss) $33.00 Exacta Box - Horses 1,3,7 6 Combinations - Total cost $198.00

Exacta Box 33.00

198.00

0.00

-198.00

should only cost you 66 not 198 call your guy or the book they should square it away....

[str]

Sounds like Har is right.

Any horse that is a scratch is a refund.

You still lost on some plays but all monies on that horses number should be a no play and cancelled .

Hopefully the computer did not pick it up and once you talk to someone it will get straightened out.

Good luck.

[Dr.Gonzo]

What are some books, if any, that I should read? I've only read Andrew Beyer's stuff.

I've read alot of racing stuff but not much from the American perspective, maybe I can learn something.

[str]

What are some books, if any, that I should read? I've only read Andrew Beyer's stuff.

I've read alot of racing stuff but not much from the American perspective, maybe I can learn something.

Not sure what you want to exactly learn. If it is money management, there are plenty of books to choose from.

If it is systems, I would avoid them as they don't work.

If it is WHY certain things happen on the track in a race, or the jockey's mind set or why they react when they do and how they react or a trainers mindset on why they drop a horse down, raise a horse up, or otherwise manage a horse in training, film study, or a slew of other things like that, I urge you to read this thread. It's free, it's the truth and it's accurate.

You can bypass the parts about people if you choose and I know it is long at this point ( 6 years +) but plenty of people , as you will see, have said that they have never been able to find this type of information anywhere else.

Best of all, if you read something here and have a follow up question, fire away. I am happy to help if I can.

This seems self serving but I ask you to give it a shot.

I am pretty sure you will be satisfied with it's context.

Feel free to let me know.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Not sure what you want to exactly learn. If it is money management, there are plenty of books to choose from.

If it is systems, I would avoid them as they don't work.

If it is WHY certain things happen on the track in a race, or the jockey's mind set or why they react when they do and how they react or a trainers mindset on why they drop a horse down, raise a horse up, or otherwise manage a horse in training, film study, or a slew of other things like that, I urge you to read this thread. It's free, it's the truth and it's accurate.

You can bypass the parts about people if you choose and I know it is long at this point ( 6 years +) but plenty of people , as you will see, have said that they have never been able to find this type of information anywhere else.

Best of all, if you read something here and have a follow up question, fire away. I am happy to help if I can.

This seems self serving but I ask you to give it a shot.

I am pretty sure you will be satisfied with it's context.

Feel free to let me know.

Thanks for the response.

I'm a professional gambler outside the US and I bet almost exclusively on horse racing. I'm not looking for anything specific, I'll have a shot at reading the thread and see if there's anything I can ask.

Cheers.

[str]

Thanks for the response.

I'm a professional gambler outside the US and I bet almost exclusively on horse racing. I'm not looking for anything specific, I'll have a shot at reading the thread and see if there's anything I can ask.

Cheers.

Having known two professional gamblers well during my days , I think that some of what is talked about will either reaffirm what you already know or enlighten you especially when it comes to trips , and why a horse did whatever it did, be it good or bad.
Hope it helps.