A handicapping tool that I have always used in betting or claiming horses is when I see a horse run in what I have always called an " accordion race". That is a race where somewhere in the middle calls on the chart or past performance a horse will make up lengths but fall back in running order or pass horses and move up from 7th to 4th but actually drop back in lengths from the leader. If this happens and the leader is drawing away from all others, that is excusable because it is happening to everyone. But when the leader is not really moving away from all others or is starting to quit and it happens , it is like the race is shrinking in lengths of difference but the horses gaining in lengths are not doing anything to make that happen, it is just happening. Either of those scenarios gives handicappers the illusion that the horse is moving forward when indeed they are not. Horses like that get a false value placed on them. And further, when it happens and most of the field does this, the few that actually made up lengths in the call split and passed horses while doing so DO NOT get the full credit deserved by most. This has been a huge positive for me while picking and choosing how good a horse might be for a long time.
( Hope that makes sense.) This is what happened in this years Derby. Traffic or trouble can absolutely cause this sometimes so it is important to check for that but rarely will traffic affect the whole field. If you look at the PP's of all the Derby runners you will see what I am talking about. With that said and not going into a full length analysis, I see that Master of Hounds did not lose lengths between call 3 and 4. I also see that Animal Kingdom did not.They both made up 1/2 to 1 1/4 lengths respectively. Many others lost 3-4 lengths between these calls.( Nehro lost 1/2 a length).That alone leads me straight towards those two. The leader , Shackleford, opened up 1/2 a length during that call. This means that Master of Hounds was staying even with Shackleford and Animal Kingdom was 3/4 of one length superior within that call.
From my previous post , more than any of the other triple crown races, pedigree bites more horses in the ass in the Belmont than any of the other races. Because Nehro and Shackleford are so weak in the stamina department, there is no way I would ever select either of those horses.They could win, but all logic says no and that is good enough for me.
I am a big "pace makes the race" guy. The reason for that is that it does. Simple.
As I put the race together it seems to me that if Prime Cut wants the early lead , it is right there for him.And if allowed, he can steal this race. Shackleford looks like he will get a perfect stalking position on the outside very similar to his position in the Preakness or , if Prime Cut does not want the lead and no other horse tries to change form drastically and gun for it, the pace should be quite slow early and suit a front runner or a horse with a stalking 5-6 length off the lead position. I would say that the race looks like it is taylor made for Shackleford to win. It has the potential to set up perfectly for him. I think it will. I just cannot think that he will win, perfect trip or not , because of his pedigree. ( I love perfect trips and love finding horses that will get one but the Belmont distance wipes that away for me).
Master of Hounds has that Lemon Drop Kid angle working for him( bloodline angle) and I think that it is a very solid thought process within that angle. His trainer is one of the worlds finest.
I have a huge rooting interest in Animal Kingdom because of Graham and Anita Motion. I have stated that I knew those two when they first started out together and two nicer, classier, honest and hard working a couple along with there assistant Adrian , one could never find. I sure hope they win!
So my exacta will be a Animal Kingdom and Master of Hounds box with enough on Animal Kingdom on top of Master of Hounds so the payouts are the same( 3.00 or 4.00 with AK on top, 2.00 with MOH on top, something like that). I do think either horse can win. Might also stick Prime Cut in there as well.
Best of Luck everyone!