[JBEX]

bottom line a terrible tragedy..would love to have seen her pass on the bloodlines and who knows how good her offspring might have been..Being a paternal granddaughter of Bold Ruler she couldn't have been bred to Secretariat .Believe 1975 or 76 was his first year at stud and I know 1975 was Mr Prospector's..Of course Mr P didn't go in with the fanfare of Secretariat but wound up being one of the all time greats . Northern Dancer who was well into his stallion career shared the same dam sire as Ruffian (Native Dancer) so that would have excluded him..Guessing maybe Damascus or In Reality would be good choices as I believe they were complete out crosses. .Sorry if I've strayed too far off the path with this but find this stuff fascinating..sure a lot of thought would have been put into this by the connections if she had retired in good order

[harthebar]

Hey str. How you been. Talked to aunt nance the other day. She is doing great out in cal. I got a question. I order some gift cards with points .......how long does it take to get them ...any idea .i remember you said you ordered some. Before. Thanks.

[str]

Hey str. How you been. Talked to aunt nance the other day. She is doing great out in cal. I got a question. I order some gift cards with points .......how long does it take to get them ...any idea .i remember you said you ordered some. Before. Thanks.

Usually one day, maybe two.

They will email you .

Glad for Nancy.

Great to hear from you .

[harthebar]

They e mailed me saying ok. But never got the Target gift. It's not a e card .....

[cutchemist42]

Any thoughts leading up to the Derby str?

[str]

Any thoughts leading up to the Derby str?

I always like to see the draw first, which I now have. I will work through it and talk about it some more soon but I do think that Upstart at 15-1 is very interesting. Breeding might be light on the distance end of things but there is plenty to like at first glance.
More later.

[cutchemist42]

I always like to see the draw first, which I now have. I will work through it and talk about it some more soon but I do think that Upstart at 15-1 is very interesting. Breeding might be light on the distance end of things but there is plenty to like at first glance.
More later.

Yeah when I saw 15-1 with Upstart, I automatically liked it.

[str]

Tossing all the chalk, for me it will be an exacta and triple box of:

9 Bolo
10 Firing Line
15 Frosted
19 Upstart

Of those I like Frosted to win.

Good Luck everyone.

[cutchemist42]

Playing a $1 exacta on 3,6,8,19/3,6,8,18,19

Placed a win start for my sister on Bolo cause she liked the name haha.

[JBEX]

hey str

Christophe Clement has a firster going 8.5f at Delaware tomorrow..Big pedigree 3yo filly Bernardini out of a Storm Cat mare..
the owner/breeder is Robert Evans whose a big time player in this game as far as breeding and I believe buying expensive horses.You think it's not necessarily a bad sign that a horse like this is sent to Delaware rather than debut in NY ? I realize it could be but also feel a guy like Evans isn't as concerned about an extra 15k winners share vs giving the horse an easier first out assignment to hopefully move forward off..the filly had steady Payson Park workouts from mid February to mid April (mostly 4f) and one 4f work on the Saratoga training track exactly one week ago..the workouts were decent as a whole rankings wise

[str]

hey str

Christophe Clement has a firster going 8.5f at Delaware tomorrow..Big pedigree 3yo filly Bernardini out of a Storm Cat mare..
the owner/breeder is Robert Evans whose a big time player in this game as far as breeding and I believe buying expensive horses.You think it's not necessarily a bad sign that a horse like this is sent to Delaware rather than debut in NY ? I realize it could be but also feel a guy like Evans isn't as concerned about an extra 15k winners share vs giving the horse an easier first out assignment to hopefully move forward off..the filly had steady Payson Park workouts from mid February to mid April (mostly 4f) and one 4f work on the Saratoga training track exactly one week ago..the workouts were decent as a whole rankings wise

JBEX,

Nice to hear from you. C. Clement is a very very solid trainer with grass horses as you well know. Robert Evans is huge in the business. You know that also. While only a best guess, if the filly is ready to run, she needs to run. The purse means nothing in this case, so dismiss that. It is about her career. Clement could and probably has several others that will be ready for those long on the grass maiden races by the time they come around. When you have more than 2 horses for a race on plenty on deck, you have to decide what to do.
When I was in that spot, and this is just me, maybe not him, I would never have chosen to ship my best or 2nd best option out of town to make a slot for my 3rd, 4th or 5th option at home. No way. So, because of that, I would tend to guess that she has not shown brilliance in her training. Of course, she does not have to , to win at Delaware Park with that pedigree. Delaware Park is no slouch, but it's not Belmont in late May or June either.
So, because she has never been handled by that gate crew before ( bigger than you think for a firster). Because it is a surface and surroundings, more so surroundings as everything will be foreign to her that she has never seen before. Because she will in all probability be WAY over bet and I assume has a rider on her that has never sat on her before, for me, she would be a bet against.
Where the other horses here might be an easier assignment for her, overcoming everything above and a van ride through N.Y. city and down the Jersey turnpike ( a ride that is tougher than normal more often than not), everything else is harder. I would hope as a player that she is 4-5 and throw her out , knowing that yes, she is probably the best horse by far, but has many reasons to not be best today.
That is by take.
Thanks for checking in.

[JBEX]

JBEX,

Nice to hear from you. C. Clement is a very very solid trainer with grass horses as you well know. Robert Evans is huge in the business. You know that also. While only a best guess, if the filly is ready to run, she needs to run. The purse means nothing in this case, so dismiss that. It is about her career. Clement could and probably has several others that will be ready for those long on the grass maiden races by the time they come around. When you have more than 2 horses for a race on plenty on deck, you have to decide what to do.
When I was in that spot, and this is just me, maybe not him, I would never have chosen to ship my best or 2nd best option out of town to make a slot for my 3rd, 4th or 5th option at home. No way. So, because of that, I would tend to guess that she has not shown brilliance in her training. Of course, she does not have to , to win at Delaware Park with that pedigree. Delaware Park is no slouch, but it's not Belmont in late May or June either.
So, because she has never been handled by that gate crew before ( bigger than you think for a firster). Because it is a surface and surroundings, more so surroundings as everything will be foreign to her that she has never seen before. Because she will in all probability be WAY over bet and I assume has a rider on her that has never sat on her before, for me, she would be a bet against.
Where the other horses here might be an easier assignment for her, overcoming everything above and a van ride through N.Y. city and down the Jersey turnpike ( a ride that is tougher than normal more often than not), everything else is harder. I would hope as a player that she is 4-5 and throw her out , knowing that yes, she is probably the best horse by far, but has many reasons to not be best today.
That is by take.
Thanks for checking in.

she will be an underlay more than likely and if not good chance something probably not right anyway.according to Beyer pars a Belmont msw is 8-9 lengths faster than the same race at Delaware...kind of surprised me it is that much..a high to mid level maiden claimer in NY probably as fast as a msw at Delaware..Maybe that's what it is..Getting a chance to run a horse that your a little discouraged about going in without the risk of losing it to a claim..can understand the obvious disadvantage of having to van from Saratoga and of course wouldn't have thought about the unfamiliarity of the gate crew with the horse..It's the 7th race
#4 tidal surge (3-1)..we'll see and thanks for the great response

[Heppy10]

How easy did she win?

[JBEX]

How easy did she win?

little over a length and sat a perfect trip off the two speed horses... $7.20 win

[Heppy10]

Nice

[str]

I got home at 4 pm and caught the race on TV. Who was even money over her?
She was perfect in the post parade, perfect going into the gate, rated like a lady, responded when asked and was very professional throughout.
Regal breeding helps with that but Clement did his typical outstanding job. She did get a perfect trip but she was always in control and tons the best. 5-2 blows me away. Unreal too me.
Don't get me wrong, she was a firster. After Secretariat got beat, firsters are a throw in my book 99% of the time. Only the price would ever make me chase any firster, and not 5-2.But she got no respect at all at 5-2 IMO.

[JBEX]

I got home at 4 pm and caught the race on TV. Who was even money over her?
She was perfect in the post parade, perfect going into the gate, rated like a lady, responded when asked and was very professional throughout.
Regal breeding helps with that but Clement did his typical outstanding job. She did get a perfect trip but she was always in control and tons the best. 5-2 blows me away. Unreal too me.
Don't get me wrong, she was a firster. After Secretariat got beat, firsters are a throw in my book 99% of the time. Only the price would ever make me chase any firster, and not 5-2.But she got no respect at all at 5-2 IMO.

#3 who finished 2nd was even money..definetly had some merit IMO ..finished 2nd last out at GP going 7f..had to deal with extreme posts 2 and 3 starts back.showed some talent for sure in her 4 starts..was a 140k yearling purchase. .#1 who went off 7/2 was a Larry Jones trained, bred and owned by him along with one other individual..Hard Spun out of a Street Cry mare which is also big bloodlines.In his 4 starts had to deal with extreme posts also , an off track , wide trips always at the FG..First time on a fast track for her..Of course hindsight is always 20/20 but there were definite positives for these two and don't think the winner going off 5/2 was really a signal she wasn't played well..Think if I had looked at it more carefully would have reached that conclusion going instead of automatically (vaguely) assuming she'd be an underlay

[str]

Going with Frosted .

My ticket would be a triple putting Frosted 1st , 2nd and 3rd.

6 - 3,5,7,8, - 3,5,7,8 = 12.00 for a 1.00 triple

3,7,8 - 6 - 3,5,7,8 = 9.00 for a 1.00 triple

3,7,8 - 3,5,7,8 - 6 = 9.00 for a triple

I just can't use AM on top. Hard for me to believe that he is that great and can win at 1 1/2 having never raced over the Belmont surface. It is sooooo tricky. If he does, good for him, but no way I bet on it.

Good luck everyone.

[cutchemist42]

Going with Frosted .

My ticket would be a triple putting Frosted 1st , 2nd and 3rd.

6 - 3,5,7,8, - 3,5,7,8 = 12.00 for a 1.00 triple

3,7,8 - 6 - 3,5,7,8 = 9.00 for a 1.00 triple

3,7,8 - 3,5,7,8 - 6 = 9.00 for a triple

I just can't use AM on top. Hard for me to believe that he is that great and can win at 1 1/2 having never raced over the Belmont surface. It is sooooo tricky. If he does, good for him, but no way I bet on it.

Good luck everyone.

I like this post!

[JBEX]

hey str

too good a thread to lay dormant.. a horse who typically stays 1-3 lengths off the pace and now drops a level or two..do you think a horse in this situation senses that this thing he normally does seems easier this time and is this psychologically a lift for the horse to perform better under these circumstances ?

[str]

hey str

too good a thread to lay dormant.. a horse who typically stays 1-3 lengths off the pace and now drops a level or two..do you think a horse in this situation senses that this thing he normally does seems easier this time and is this psychologically a lift for the horse to perform better under these circumstances ?

Thanks !

As for the question:
Absolutely. After 20 seconds of the race, the horse will have realized that they are in all probability in their spot with ease and ready acceleration. It can be a huge mental lift going forward. I mean, so can speed, but they can still be pinned by some cheap rabbit early and make things uncomfortable for a while and the deeper closer , no matter how good, can be bothered by very slow early fractions and have more to overcome than originally thought. But that type you explained, would attend a quicker pace with less work, or be crawling all over a slower pace just waiting to blow by.
Of all the various types of trips, when it comes to dropping down and getting a horses head back into the game, the one you suggested has the highest % by far of winning easily and regaining confidence allowing the horse to step back up and be a better horse than before.
Hope that helps and great to hear from you JBEX.

[JBEX]

I've always felt that this type of situation went beyond just being physically easier for the horse but also mentally uplifting and a confidence builder..of course I meant under favorable conditions like I described above and not waiting off a slow pace even at the level he's currently running at..can see how a good effort under these circumstances could carry forward to possibly more solid performances...thanks as always for the great answer

[JBEX]

would a first time 2yo going 8.5f on the turf with no works beyond 4f make you question the trainers intention of trying to win the debut.. Like other things about a horse with this setup in the 2nd at saratoga today.. even if you get to this afterwards like to know your thoughts.. could long gallops get her ready for this with no 5 or 6f works ? she has regular 4f works

[str]

would a first time 2yo going 8.5f on the turf with no works beyond 4f make you question the trainers intention of trying to win the debut.. Like other things about a horse with this setup in the 2nd at saratoga today.. even if you get to this afterwards like to know your thoughts.. could long gallops get her ready for this with no 5 or 6f works ? she has regular 4f works

Who is the trainer and where did those works take place? were they every 5-7 days and usually spaced the same amount of days apart except maybe the last one?

[str]

would a first time 2yo going 8.5f on the turf with no works beyond 4f make you question the trainers intention of trying to win the debut.. Like other things about a horse with this setup in the 2nd at saratoga today.. even if you get to this afterwards like to know your thoughts.. could long gallops get her ready for this with no 5 or 6f works ? she has regular 4f works

1st off. No trainer wants to run an unfit horse at Saratoga. No trainer wants to be humiliated on that grand stage.

so, the horse is fit. Reason I asked who the trainer was has to do with that trainers style. But forget that. Here is almost assuredly what happened.
The workout was NOT just a 1/2 mile off the pole like a sprinter would work. It was more like a horse starting to pick up the pace to about 15's per 1/8th of a mile starting about the finish line or where the gate will be sitting at the 1/8th or 1/16th pole. The horse 2 minute licks, or, gallops quicker than normal at 15's early, maybe for 3/8ths. Then, the horse goes to 14's. Still too slow to time but picking it up. Does that for 2 or 3 1/8's and picks it up enough so that the clocker sees the horse moving well enough to put a watch on him or her. Thus, the final 1/2 mile time.
So it was not really a 1/2 mile work at all. It was more like a slow mile and finishing up well. That along with 2 mile daily slow gallops is plenty of bottom for a horse to go long 1st out on the turf.
I can assume the horse, if it breaks and cooperates, meaning relaxes early with a ton of people in the stands instead of the handful it is used too, will settle in and , just like in the morning, try to kick on the last 1/2 mile.
Horse is fit. No worries there IMO. Does not matter if it runs 1st or last, that has to do with handling the paddock, the noise, the newness, and it's ability. The horse IS 99% assuredly fit.

[JBEX]

had a hunch that's what your answer would be as we've touched on this subject before.. bobby ribaudo is the trainer
and have seen his name around for decades.. he always had seemed like a middle of the road guy over the years.. realize you're only as good as the horses you train..you think to low volume less stocked guys like him winning with a horse like this means more than the big 8 (or more) guys up here who could literally have dozens of horses like this? this horse cost 210k as a yearling and factoring in stud fee and lack of production on the dams side must have been a specimen. It is the horse in the 2nd race today I did a small write-up on..finished 5th at 30-1 after stalking the pace setter till top of the stretch where she gave it up

[str]

had a hunch that's what your answer would be as we've touched on this subject before.. bobby ribaudo is the trainer
and have seen his name around for decades.. he always had seemed like a middle of the road guy over the years.. realize you're only as good as the horses you train..you think to low volume less stocked guys like him winning with a horse like this means more than the big 8 (or more) guys up here who could literally have dozens of horses like this? this horse cost 210k as a yearling and factoring in stud fee and lack of production on the dams side must have been a specimen. It is the horse in the 2nd race today I did a small write-up on..finished 5th at 30-1 after stalking the pace setter till top of the stretch where she gave it up

The horse was trained to relax and close. Did not see the race so I don't know if the horse broke well and got excited or what. Don't know if the horse is bred to show early speed. Maybe it did try and relax but you better be tons the best to stalk and go on when trained that way.
Keep an eye on this one and lets see where it lands next.

[JBEX]

2/1 2/half 2/half 3/1.5 5/5.5

not a bad tuneup for better things down the road..she's bred to run all day top and bottom according to my sire stats book.. If she came out of the race OK could see her improving nicely
next out at belmont.. her name is laquesta and I'll put her in the stable to follow..keep you posted and thanks for the feedback

[Heppy10]

Private zone worked 4f in 45 and 4 Breezing at saratoga, thats the fastest ive ever seen, has anyone seen faster?

[str]

Private zone worked 4f in 45 and 4 Breezing at saratoga, thats the fastest ive ever seen, has anyone seen faster?

Yes, there have been plenty of faster works, but a 1/2 in 45/45ths is moving right along.

I have never been caught up in works. I have several detailed comments in here as to why.

Certainly as often as not, the work can be TOO QUICK, and not what the trainer or rider was hopeful of achieving.

Let the form talk you into betting this guy or any horse, not workouts. Without seeing the where, how ,why, when, etc. it is just enough info to get you into trouble.

Hope that helps.

[cutchemist42]

Whatd you think of the Travers Str? Did you like this spot for AP?

[str]

Whatd you think of the Travers Str? Did you like this spot for AP?

Well,we are all experts after the fact. We all sound so smart. But with all honesty, no.

It was a spot chosen by the owners and the extreme pressure the sport put on the decision not by Baffart training a horse and finding the right spot.

Do I understand why Baffart did it? Absolutely. But the horse I saw yesterday warming up was a horse that had lost a decent amount of weight since the Belmont. Ribs were there for all to see. My bet is that left totally up to Baffart with no outside influence, the spot he would have chosen for AP yesterday would have been his stall in Calif. But the game isn't played like that and decisions of that magnitude are never easy ones.
With that said, the horse ran very well. Frosted went into a suicidal duel around the 5/8s pole and they cut back to back 23's. And this is Saratoga we are talking about not Santa Anita or some other highway. They were flying around the far turn. Frosted got right into AP's right eye and he fought back and finally put Frosted away. Great effort there. But it left him little resistance for the solid closer late.
All in all, he ran very well.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Well,we are all experts after the fact. We all sound so smart. But with all honesty, no.

It was a spot chosen by the owners and the extreme pressure the sport put on the decision not by Baffart training a horse and finding the right spot.

Do I understand why Baffart did it? Absolutely. But the horse I saw yesterday warming up was a horse that had lost a decent amount of weight since the Belmont. Ribs were there for all to see. My bet is that left totally up to Baffart with no outside influence, the spot he would have chosen for AP yesterday would have been his stall in Calif. But the game isn't played like that and decisions of that magnitude are never easy ones.
With that said, the horse ran very well. Frosted went into a suicidal duel around the 5/8s pole and they cut back to back 23's. And this is Saratoga we are talking about not Santa Anita or some other highway. They were flying around the far turn. Frosted got right into AP's right eye and he fought back and finally put Frosted away. Great effort there. But it left him little resistance for the solid closer late.
All in all, he ran very well.

Thx for the analysis. That right eye factor that you educated us on has really changed my thought process in handicapping a race. It has generated much better results for me in the game. I think AP proved what a great horse he is in the duel with Frosted.

[Thunderground]

Hi Str. Excellent thread!

My question is about the closing two weeks, or so, of a summer meet like Saratoga or Del Mar. Could it be that some trainers may start to look ahead at the next meet, where others, who perhaps didn't have such a good meet, are focused on finishing strong (possibly with a little pharmaceutical help)? I suppose the general underlying question is about the constancy of a trainer's interest in a meet. Is it constant or are there possible fluctuations?

[str]

Hi Str. Excellent thread!

My question is about the closing two weeks, or so, of a summer meet like Saratoga or Del Mar. Could it be that some trainers may start to look ahead at the next meet, where others, who perhaps didn't have such a good meet, are focused on finishing strong (possibly with a little pharmaceutical help)? I suppose the general underlying question is about the constancy of a trainer's interest in a meet. Is it constant or are there possible fluctuations?

I do not know if Delmar is the same as Saratoga. No experience there and don't follow Cal. racing.

Saratoga is like no other meet I have ever seen. So it might be a lesser example than most meets.But let's start with Saratoga.

Everyone and I mean everyone wants to win at Saratoga. Again, like no other place. So because of that and the fact that it is a short meet leads me to believe that nobody takes a day off or a breather if they can run there. I mean, try and tell the owner you have a race at Saratoga the last week of the meet but let's save him for Belmont because the same race runs there in 2 weeks. The owner would throw up IMO.

As for the little pharmaceutical help, no. I never recall seeing that or feeling as though that was the case in any meet I raced at and especially any meet where I was vying for leading trainer or leading % trainer at that meet.
In my case, I was banging heads with Dutrow, Delp, Leatherbury , Tammaro, or Alfano and illegal drugs was not the game those guys played. I knew who the crooks were. Is was not any of them. Now, lay one in ( drop down in class) to win a race and leave you guessing if they were stealing or dumping to get claimed? Absolutely. That WAS the game. They all played that as did I.
That said, your question still has an answer that will help you I think. When it is a typical meet, about any except Saratoga, and the next meet in that state starts right away, if a contending leading trainer is not going to win the meet with a couple of weeks left AND they will be trying to win the next meet which starts right away, then yes, they will indeed consider holding an everyday horse out and skipping a spot for either the same spot in 2 weeks at the new meet OR a slightly lesser spot where they feel they have as good or a better chance to win and start the meet off well. Big outfits that vie for leading trainer from meet to meet certainly consider that with some of there horses. They will never admit it, and even swear I am crazy, but... been there, done that, and while I would have danced around that question back in the day, I don't need to anymore. So I won't.
I cannot name names, but I think I have given enough insight so as for you to take it from there.
Lastly, the only way to see if this is a solid lead over time is to have the current condition book as well as the new book for the next meet available to see what might be the trainers thought process. Those should be available online.
Hope that helps.

Very insightful question .

Welcome to SBR and the horse forum.