[str]

California Chrome is clearly the horse to beat, hard to see him lose, but stranger things have happened. I know what you mean about Union Rags. He always seemed to have a bad trip in races before the Belmont, the same with Palace Malice. Ride on Curlin has had his fair share as well. A horse that's interesting to me is Social Inclusion. His trainer said that he would lead from the start at the Preakness, yet he didn't. He actually had a faster late speed than he did in the Wood Memorial. Should he even run him in the Belmont though? He ran far better than you would have thought after being so stressed out before the race, but isn't the Belmont an awfully big push for such an undeveloped horse? I also question his jockey switch. Did the trainer fire the jockey, because he wasn't happy with his ride? To me, it didn't look that bad - unless I missed something. Social Inclusion looks like a horse with a great future, but it seems like his trainer's expectations are a little too high too soon. Now watch him fool us. Ride on Curlin , Wicked Strong, and Commanding Curve (maybe) look like horses that could challenge California Chrome in the final 1/4 mile. Samraat always puts forth a strong effort. Kid Cruz will probably have too much ground to cover to catch up with the others. Can't get a read on Tonalist. He's a little unproven. This will be a hard race to handicap.

What I was talking about with Union Rags was his breeding allowing him to get the mile and a half according to the chef de race website. Pretty sure he was a total throw off that info.

Palace Malice simply ran off in the Derby and figured IMO to run tons better in the Belmont with blks. off and a soft pace. My buddies and I keyed him in some exotics last year.

Spoke about Social Inclusion after the Preakness and my opinion has not changed. Should he run in the Belmont? Not off what I saw in the Preakness with the nerves and such but easy for me to say from the cheap seats isn't it. Don't know about the rider but IMO he did all he could with what he had in the Preakness. The horse came unglued in the post parade. I would have to assume he will again.

Sometimes when you turn down 8 million dollars for a horse, you let that guide your judgement which is usually a mistake. The horse should always guide your judgement, period. Again, easy for me to say.

It's chrome's ability to do it again and the riders judgement around the odd shaped track that will be the key to winning. He has proven he can beat them twice . It's obviously not as easy as it looks. Typically, nothing is.

[sandyw123]

I finally have a chance to respond to your post, have been watching my grandchildren since school is out for summer - something I couldn't do much before retirement. I understand what you mean about a horse not necessarily doing what his pedigree suggests he should be able to do. What I've done in the past, particularly in the Belmont, is just go over the horses' past performances and try to get a read on how they can handle distance. I've looked at this year's runners past races and plan to eliminate a few. I'm not seeing Social Inclusion, Samraat, and Intense Holiday (if he runs) being able to get the distance. Tonalist, Commissioner, and Kid Cruz will be jumping up in class. I don't like Kid Cruz at all in this race, because he sits back so far and would probably have to close harder than he could handle. I'm not feeling real good about Commanding Curve, since I read that he looked completely exhausted after his strong effort in the Kentucky Derby. It hardly seems that an extra 1/4 mile would be possible for him. Throwing pedigree aside, I'm leaning towards California Chrome, Wicked Strong, Ride on Curlin, and General A Rod to finish in the front of the pack. I'm also considering Commissioner as a dark horse. He's run some subpar races (like Union Rags), but I'm seeing some indication that he can go a good distance under the right circumstances. I'm probably wrong. What are your thoughts? Thanks!

[sandyw123]

I just saw that Intense Holiday will be retired due to injury. Hopefully, he will recover from this. And after looking again at Commisioner's recent races, his worst were against higher classed horses. He may be over matched here.

[str]

I finally have a chance to respond to your post, have been watching my grandchildren since school is out for summer - something I couldn't do much before retirement. I understand what you mean about a horse not necessarily doing what his pedigree suggests he should be able to do. What I've done in the past, particularly in the Belmont, is just go over the horses' past performances and try to get a read on how they can handle distance. I've looked at this year's runners past races and plan to eliminate a few. I'm not seeing Social Inclusion, Samraat, and Intense Holiday (if he runs) being able to get the distance. Tonalist, Commissioner, and Kid Cruz will be jumping up in class. I don't like Kid Cruz at all in this race, because he sits back so far and would probably have to close harder than he could handle. I'm not feeling real good about Commanding Curve, since I read that he looked completely exhausted after his strong effort in the Kentucky Derby. It hardly seems that an extra 1/4 mile would be possible for him. Throwing pedigree aside, I'm leaning towards California Chrome, Wicked Strong, Ride on Curlin, and General A Rod to finish in the front of the pack. I'm also considering Commissioner as a dark horse. He's run some subpar races (like Union Rags), but I'm seeing some indication that he can go a good distance under the right circumstances. I'm probably wrong. What are your thoughts? Thanks!

I see that Espinosa will be riding at Belmont this week prior to the Belmont. Smart move there. Want to see the draw but will be trying to beat CC with a bomb ticket if I play. That way, I root for me and I root for CC if I am not close.
I would like to say that I am rooting for him, and the sport certainly could use a triple crown winner, but, he has to earn it, and until he can win the Belmont, he has not. So, I hope he wins but only if he can, if that makes sense.

In past Belmonts, everyone knows that horses rarely come from way back in the race. However, if, and it is a big if, CC lays 2,3,4 and moves around the turn and has the lead at the 1/8th pole, he could be vulnerable to a deep closer that is running well late. That's a big if, but if CC runs well, the rider will have to move later than he normally would in conjunction to where he is on the track. If jocks make a mistake in this race, and plenty have, it's that they move as they get into the far turn. Normally that would be the 3/8ths pole. There, it's the 4 1/2 pole. A HUGE , and deadly difference. Just ask Smarty and Bid, as well as others I am sure. If that would happen, a stamina horse might be the way to go, but it is a big if and ultimately, you need to decipher how you feel the race will be run and construct a ticket around that. While that is not how you necessarily handicap a typical race, IMO it's how I would try and look at this one. Use him on top, play him underneath or throw him all together. Maybe with bombs, you use 2 of those scenarios. Whatever you determine. I think it starts there.

[str]

I just saw that Intense Holiday will be retired due to injury. Hopefully, he will recover from this. And after looking again at Commisioner's recent races, his worst were against higher classed horses. He may be over matched here.

When I saw he sustained a condylar fracture and Todd said he would run again, well, that was lip service. A week later, he was retired. A condylar fracture is a vertical fracture , with the grain of the bone, anywhere from the ankle up to the base of the knee in the cannon bone. It's like when a wooden baseball bat breaks. It's with the grain. The only way to fix it is to insert screws into the bone. Over time, it heels very well, but for racing at the level he would, and with all the scrutiny these days, no way would he run again. A claiming horse? Sure, and there are plenty that have done very well and raced for years afterwards. But for a grade 1 horse, and again, all the scrutiny these days, forget it.
Once that bone heels, it is not breaking there again as the area that was fractured actually grows a heavier layer of bone than he had to begin with. So, for stud, and the next 25 years if he stays otherwise healthy, he will have a great life.

[Magnolia Slim]

enjoy reading this thread.

[cutchemist42]

Hey str,

Just wondering what is happening when a trainer enters a horsw who has not won a maiden race yet, into an allowance or claiming race. I imagine this varies from trainer to trainer, but maybe some general insight? Thanks!

[harthebar]

to make it short and sweet...i got my rhymes and reasons .calif. chrome, will not be in the money,,its his time....he had his way ,,,way to easy over his last 6 starts, now comes ,,,his time to pressed.pressured,banged ,and panic....it all happens in new york.....i would love to see a triple crown winner.....i'm going to the belmont.....but sorry mr.chrome .....not that day.........he cant....he is doomed, he will fall apart like a soup sandwich..he will do a smarty jones.......but he will bounce back.......

I see that Espinosa will be riding at Belmont this week prior to the Belmont. Smart move there. Want to see the draw but will be trying to beat CC with a bomb ticket if I play. That way, I root for me and I root for CC if I am not close.
I would like to say that I am rooting for him, and the sport certainly could use a triple crown winner, but, he has to earn it, and until he can win the Belmont, he has not. So, I hope he wins but only if he can, if that makes sense.

In past Belmonts, everyone knows that horses rarely come from way back in the race. However, if, and it is a big if, CC lays 2,3,4 and moves around the turn and has the lead at the 1/8th pole, he could be vulnerable to a deep closer that is running well late. That's a big if, but if CC runs well, the rider will have to move later than he normally would in conjunction to where he is on the track. If jocks make a mistake in this race, and plenty have, it's that they move as they get into the far turn. Normally that would be the 3/8ths pole. There, it's the 4 1/2 pole. A HUGE , and deadly difference. Just ask Smarty and Bid, as well as others I am sure. If that would happen, a stamina horse might be the way to go, but it is a big if and ultimately, you need to decipher how you feel the race will be run and construct a ticket around that. While that is not how you necessarily handicap a typical race, IMO it's how I would try and look at this one. Use him on top, play him underneath or throw him all together. Maybe with bombs, you use 2 of those scenarios. Whatever you determine. I think it starts there.

[TonyP]

If Cali Chrome had an easy time his last several races is because he made it easy on himself getting position, even he does not win the tc he will hit the board.

[JBEX]

If cc moved too early wouldn't it most likely be due to another horse
forcing his hand and moving too soon? You would think Espinoza knows ideally where he'd
like to ask him to go even though Belmont not his home track. Or if he sensed
the other horse was going to early sit chilly and wait to make your move.Do you
think it would be difficult for chrome to let another horse go by him that late in
the race irregardless of what Espinoza wanted to do? Guess even if Chrome is
willing it's gotta be a difficult decision for the jock in the heat of the battle with
what's at stake

[str]

Hey str,

Just wondering what is happening when a trainer enters a horsw who has not won a maiden race yet, into an allowance or claiming race. I imagine this varies from trainer to trainer, but maybe some general insight? Thanks!

Do you mean a first time starter?

And, or, do you mean a state bred stake?

Or is this a first time turf race?

Or is this a maiden that has run a couple of times and never won, and is now in a claiming race, and I assume a small field.

Different answers depending on which one or several you would like to know about.

Let me know please.

[str]

to make it short and sweet...i got my rhymes and reasons .calif. chrome, will not be in the money,,its his time....he had his way ,,,way to easy over his last 6 starts, now comes ,,,his time to pressed.pressured,banged ,and panic....it all happens in new york.....i would love to see a triple crown winner.....i'm going to the belmont.....but sorry mr.chrome .....not that day.........he cant....he is doomed, he will fall apart like a soup sandwich..he will do a smarty jones.......but he will bounce back.......

I don't know why he would be pressed in a race like this. The trip because of his post or circumstances beyond his control might allow that to happen but CC has gotten nice trips for one reason only. It's because he was so superior that the jock put him wherever he wanted him and the horse responded immediately when asked.

For another jock to ride their mount with the sole purpose of pinning or forcing CC's hand early, knowing it would be certain doom for that riders mount would not fly very well in the eyes of the public, to say nothing about what Espinosa would do to the jock when they got back to the jocks room. Whoever did that better be able to defend himself or hope that Espinosa can't fight because old school would have projected an ass kicking of major proportions awaiting to say nothing of the public backlash.

I just do not see that happening . Every rider will be wanting to conserve energy for the 1st 3/4's of the race. I see this horse, unless his post does not allow it, to do what Big Brown and Kent tried to do, that is, get outside, concede some loss of ground if necessary, in order to get a clean trip. But if the field gets strung out, and we will have to see the draw to try and determine that, there might be little if any need to lose much ground around the 1st turn at all.

Let's see the draw and try and analyze that.

[str]

If Cali Chrome had an easy time his last several races is because he made it easy on himself getting position, even he does not win the tc he will hit the board.

Indeed it was CC that enabled those clean trips and hats off to the jock for doing so as well.

Hard to see this horse off the board with any kind of early position and even a just ok break IMO.

But... if it all goes wrong though, like Big Brown, riders have a tendency to allow the horse to drop way back or be last to protect the well being of the horse.

[str]

If cc moved too early wouldn't it most likely be due to another horse
forcing his hand and moving too soon? You would think Espinoza knows ideally where he'd
like to ask him to go even though Belmont not his home track. Or if he sensed
the other horse was going to early sit chilly and wait to make your move.Do you
think it would be difficult for chrome to let another horse go by him that late in
the race irregardless of what Espinoza wanted to do? Guess even if Chrome is
willing it's gotta be a difficult decision for the jock in the heat of the battle with
what's at stake

Yes, but with such a relaxed state of mind for all riders in this race, where that was not the case at Pimlico, it is not a bad thing to just let the other horse go by and try and run YOUR race, not someone else's.

Espinosa wants to wait until they turn for home to let this horse go, and will ride the race trying to achieve that.

I think the horse would be OK with letting another go by him, but the rider does not want to get pinned at any point after the first turn or slightly after they straighten away down the backside.

It's a very difficult decision for the jock. No way of knowing until it's too late no matter what he does. He has to watch for a trip, too slow a pace, no premature move, and a whole lot more. Because the pressure of the moment has built to such a high extent, those things are that much harder to remember and achieve. This TC bid is not only based on the horses ability to get the distance but the riders ability to settle the nerves and keep a cool head.

If he can wait until the 1/4 pole, (red and white at the top of the stretch), that's perfect. If he has to go at the 3/8's pole, normally early in the far turn but not at Belmont) he still might be OK. But if he moves at the 4 1/2 pole, which is going into the final turn, he leaves the backdoor wide open for a stamina type to run by him late.

[str]

enjoy reading this thread.

Thank you.

It's my pleasure.

[Dr.Gonzo]

The clean right eye that I talk about is something that speed horses crave and many must have in order to put forth their best effort. Closers or even horses that we call position horses that will sit 4th or 5th, or so do not need this, although it is optimum if they get it. Speed horses can become very brave late in a race if they have had things their way, or very fainthearted if they have received too much early pressure. So here is what to watch for:

Next time you have some time to watch some races, preferably long races to start out, only because there is more time to see it and things move a bit more deliberately going long, watch where the rider of the horse on the lead wants to get to, and then stay there. This is the same for sprints but long is easier to see sometimes.

Let's say the one goes to the lead and the 2 is in hot pursuit. The one will be a neck in front. That keeps the horses right eye clean. The outside jock will maybe move up slightly to get into that eye as they go down the backside. The inside jock will nudge his horse forward to keep that eye clean. If he cannot, and is hooked down the backside, his horse will probably give way as they go into the turn. The inside jock will want that right eye clean to keep his speed horse semi relaxed. If they go eye to eye, there is no relaxation in most cases for the inside horse and they are more apt to burn up energy quicker and, or, just throw in the towel. So in that case, the outside horse is getting the better trip, not a perfect one, the horse , if there is one, that is laying 3rd by itself behind that duel is getting the best trip but the outside horse in the duel is getting a better trip than the inside horse , who is pressured as well as claustrophobic from being pinned. This is where you see horses that might, not always, simply quit.


Almost all riders will try and either get there frontrunner this clean eye type of trip , or if they are the outside horse, apply the pressure necessary to get the inside horse wanting to surrender. I think you will start to see a common theme as to what the riders near the lead are doing , no matter the track.

Once they hit the far turn , the inside horse MUST be slightly in front or they risk having the outside horse switch leads to the left leg and come over and slam them into the rail. Remember, when horses switch leads, they all move over about 3 or 4 feet. This is why you see horses on the inside of other horses as they go into the turns, get checked if they are only 1/3 or 1/2 way up in that hole. It's because the hole will vanish when the horse switches and therefore moves over. When you see 3 or 4 across the track hit the turn on even terms, that can be 9-12 feet that just vanishes and if the inside horse is not up in there enough, they find themselves all over the rear heels of the other horses that just dropped over. If you are not familiar with switching leads it is in the thread somewhere way back. It is really important to understand for anyone that does not.

This clean right eye game starts being played as they go down the backside and continues around the far turn.

However, if you give that inside horse a clean right eye from the first turn until 1/2 way around the far turn, it is not at all uncommon to see them lose that clean right eye as they turn for home, and battle back or come again with a great effort. They have become game within the race ( if they have it in them) and they have conserved energy for a good part of the race, so they have more left in the tank to battle back. If all you do is watch the riders hands and watch for this position, you will begin to see quite a bit. Remember, the hands usually start back by the riders crotch. As they work their way up the horses neck, it is typically an indication of how much horse they have used or how much they have left. The further back the riders hands, the more horse they generally have. This is also way back in this thread if anyone needs to fully understand it.

If you watch CC's run down the backside you will notice that the jock is very content to sit 3rd to a duel and have a clean right eye. Give credit to the jock for doing that but give a ton of credit to the horse for having the motor to be able to establish it, and maintain it until asked, when the horse simply explodes into another gear.

Feel free to follow up after you have seen this take place.

Very interesting read.

Would you want to make any amendments to this for turf races instead of dirt?

[JBEX]

Yes, but with such a relaxed state of mind for all riders in this race, where that was not the case at Pimlico, it is not a bad thing to just let the other horse go by and try and run YOUR race, not someone else's.

Espinosa wants to wait until they turn for home to let this horse go, and will ride the race trying to achieve that.

I think the horse would be OK with letting another go by him, but the rider does not want to get pinned at any point after the first turn or slightly after they straighten away down the backside.

It's a very difficult decision for the jock. No way of knowing until it's too late no matter what he does. He has to watch for a trip, too slow a pace, no premature move, and a whole lot more. Because the pressure of the moment has built to such a high extent, those things are that much harder to remember and achieve. This TC bid is not only based on the horses ability to get the distance but the riders ability to settle the nerves and keep a cool head.

If he can wait until the 1/4 pole, (red and white at the top of the stretch), that's perfect. If he has to go at the 3/8's pole, normally early in the far turn but not at Belmont) he still might be OK. But if he moves at the 4 1/2 pole, which is going into the final turn, he leaves the backdoor wide open for a stamina type to run by him late.

Hopefully his quick turn of foot will keep him in striking position early and the race will be run in
a way where somebody with little chance doesn't ruin it for him. If he loses running his race that'd
be easier to live with. Always appreciate your input.. Thanks

[cutchemist42]

In this case str, here's the PP, the horse that made me ask this was the 4

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=870048

I actually went on the 4 here, who won, based on a really bad trip last race. I was just however wondering about the move. Had two maiden races, and was entered in an Allowance n3L

[sandyw123]

I see that Espinosa will be riding at Belmont this week prior to the Belmont. Smart move there. Want to see the draw but will be trying to beat CC with a bomb ticket if I play. That way, I root for me and I root for CC if I am not close.
I would like to say that I am rooting for him, and the sport certainly could use a triple crown winner, but, he has to earn it, and until he can win the Belmont, he has not. So, I hope he wins but only if he can, if that makes sense.

In past Belmonts, everyone knows that horses rarely come from way back in the race. However, if, and it is a big if, CC lays 2,3,4 and moves around the turn and has the lead at the 1/8th pole, he could be vulnerable to a deep closer that is running well late. That's a big if, but if CC runs well, the rider will have to move later than he normally would in conjunction to where he is on the track. If jocks make a mistake in this race, and plenty have, it's that they move as they get into the far turn. Normally that would be the 3/8ths pole. There, it's the 4 1/2 pole. A HUGE , and deadly difference. Just ask Smarty and Bid, as well as others I am sure. If that would happen, a stamina horse might be the way to go, but it is a big if and ultimately, you need to decipher how you feel the race will be run and construct a ticket around that. While that is not how you necessarily handicap a typical race, IMO it's how I would try and look at this one. Use him on top, play him underneath or throw him all together. Maybe with bombs, you use 2 of those scenarios. Whatever you determine. I think it starts there.

Thank you for your advice on handicapping this race! It will a tough one, with so many horses entered and with several that could use that extra distance to their advantage. Like you, I want to go with different scenarios and horses. Although I'd like to see a Triple Crown winner finally, so much can happen. Kid Cruz, as uninspiring a race as he ran in the Preakness, could be flying going in to the stretch and hit the board. I can't seem to look past the fact that his sire is Lemon Drop Kid, leading me to believe he'll like the distance. He won't have an experienced Belmont rider aboard, which won't do him any favors. Commissioner looks like he could like the distance and the track, with the plus of a good Belmont jockey riding him. It's impossible to narrow the race down to 3 or 4 top finishers. I'll wait for the post position draw, toss a few horses, and look at different scenarios. California Chrome really isn't even a lock to finish on the board, because so much can happen. I agree with that. God forbid, he could be injured or eased up due to fatigue. There could be heavy rain, despite the forecast. It only rains here when it's not supposed to. Best of luck!

[trytrytry]

Kid Cruz is out of the Belmont

[str]

Very interesting read.

Would you want to make any amendments to this for turf races instead of dirt?

Yes, I probably would.

Because there are so many speed crazy dirt horses in the U.S. , when these speed types try and go long, or even shorter, but have one dimensional breeding and or a lack of heart unless they get exactly what they want, that prohibits them from trying under anything but favorable circumstances, you will see this play out a lot.

Not nearly as much on turf. Why? IMO it is because if a horse is bred for the turf, there is a great chance that it's bloodlines are such that relax is all through it. Turf horses have always been taught to relax and run on late. Even the speed horses are much more willing to rate and relax, much more so than the dirt horses. As a result, less horses will be turf one dimensional types than dirt horses. You will still see some, but not nearly as many. Turf trainers and trainers from Europe generally train differently than trainers in the U.S.
They really stress relax. More often than not, especially at lesser tracks, U.S. trainers do not . It's all about speed.

Rate and relax is a turf theme and always has been. Dirt speed horses, especially U.S. dirt horses, have a tendency to want to run like there hair is on fire. This is a byproduct of there breeding in most cases. And with speed such a key in winning in the U.S. nowadays, it only becomes more prevalent as time goes on.

Andy Beyer, not one of my favorites by any stretch, going back to the late 60's when he was with the Washington Post, pointed out that a lot of races in the U.S. over the last thirty years have been scaled back in distance because of the lack of stamina bred into horses here these days. The Jockey Club Gold Cup, The Woodward, just to name a couple. These were key races back in the day before the Breeders Cup was founded.

That is why, these days, the Belmont is so much tougher to win for horses trying for the triple crown. IMO I don't think it is the 3 races in 5 weeks . Too me, it's the emphasis on speed as well as the training style that is the problem along with the fact that the colony of stallions and mares became quite deluded with horses that raced on lasix and other anti bleeding medications and would not have never reached the breeding shed if they had not raced on them. Because flaws are readily passed down to offspring's in horse racing, it seems like everybody has a wind problem or would bleed if not on lasix. In turf racing, the relax has stayed in the forefront so there is less of that.

Guess I got off topic for a bit. Sorry about that.

Very good question. Thanks.

[str]

In this case str, here's the PP, the horse that made me ask this was the 4

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=870048

I actually went on the 4 here, who won, based on a really bad trip last race. I was just however wondering about the move. Had two maiden races, and was entered in an Allowance n3L

My best guess is that the racing secretary's office called the trainer up and hustled him into the race. What that means is that the secretary needed this race to fill and it was sitting with 5 horses. This horse might have entered in a race that did not fill the day before or hit the AE's or something. Once they explained that the race had come up very light in that there were no real tough horses in it and some that the maiden was clearly as good as or better even though it had not yet won, the trainer did them a favor and filled the race for them. Not only did it work out well for the trainer but he did the office and management a favor. That favor will be repaid by writing a perfect race for one of his horses if he needs one or giving him a few more stalls if he needs them or whatever. He will be repaid though, I promise you.

It's politics , that's all. Happens all the time. And this time it was a win, win for the trainer. It was basically a NW of 2 except for a BC bred horse . 30-1 morning line was absurd but I have spoke about morning lines before in here. Hope you got a nice price.

[str]

Hopefully his quick turn of foot will keep him in striking position early and the race will be run in
a way where somebody with little chance doesn't ruin it for him. If he loses running his race that'd
be easier to live with. Always appreciate your input.. Thanks

That will be easier to live with. And by saying that the jock hopes to wait until the 1/4 pole to make his final move, I am assuming that he will run his race and be a length or two at most off the lead with a faltering horse in front of him.

[str]

Thank you for your advice on handicapping this race! It will a tough one, with so many horses entered and with several that could use that extra distance to their advantage. Like you, I want to go with different scenarios and horses. Although I'd like to see a Triple Crown winner finally, so much can happen. Kid Cruz, as uninspiring a race as he ran in the Preakness, could be flying going in to the stretch and hit the board. I can't seem to look past the fact that his sire is Lemon Drop Kid, leading me to believe he'll like the distance. He won't have an experienced Belmont rider aboard, which won't do him any favors. Commissioner looks like he could like the distance and the track, with the plus of a good Belmont jockey riding him. It's impossible to narrow the race down to 3 or 4 top finishers. I'll wait for the post position draw, toss a few horses, and look at different scenarios. California Chrome really isn't even a lock to finish on the board, because so much can happen. I agree with that. God forbid, he could be injured or eased up due to fatigue. There could be heavy rain, despite the forecast. It only rains here when it's not supposed to. Best of luck!

As try try try said, Kid Cruz is out.

You are right about CC is no lock. He has a helluva chance but there are no locks in that game.

Seeing the draw will help a lot. CC needs Soc. Inclusion to be inside of him. That will help a bunch IMO.

[TonyP]

CC is gong to win a triple crown. The only thing stopping him is a breakdown

[cutchemist42]

My best guess is that the racing secretary's office called the trainer up and hustled him into the race. What that means is that the secretary needed this race to fill and it was sitting with 5 horses. This horse might have entered in a race that did not fill the day before or hit the AE's or something. Once they explained that the race had come up very light in that there were no real tough horses in it and some that the maiden was clearly as good as or better even though it had not yet won, the trainer did them a favor and filled the race for them. Not only did it work out well for the trainer but he did the office and management a favor. That favor will be repaid by writing a perfect race for one of his horses if he needs one or giving him a few more stalls if he needs them or whatever. He will be repaid though, I promise you.

It's politics , that's all. Happens all the time. And this time it was a win, win for the trainer. It was basically a NW of 2 except for a BC bred horse . 30-1 morning line was absurd but I have spoke about morning lines before in here. Hope you got a nice price.

Very cool explanation, thanks for that. Interesting and good to know what kind of things can lead to these horses being entered.

On that note though, he definitely did not stay anywhere close to that morning line, went off 6/1 but still satisfied.

[TonyP]

How can you tell if horses are entered as a filler?

[str]

CC is gong to win a triple crown. The only thing stopping him is a breakdown

If he is good enough, I sure hope he does.

I want him to prove it though.

[str]

Very cool explanation, thanks for that. Interesting and good to know what kind of things can lead to these horses being entered.

On that note though, he definitely did not stay anywhere close to that morning line, went off 6/1 but still satisfied.

6-1 sounds about what he should have been.

[str]

How can you tell if horses are entered as a filler?

Unfortunately, you can't.

But, if you know the trainer's typical thought process because you closely follow that circuit, when you see something like that , that does not make sense based on what the trainer usually does, that is a solid guess as to what's going on.

Do know that I did this more than I had wished sometimes to gain stalls and acceptance being so young at the time early in my career , and I won my share with horses that I never would have entered otherwise. ( If you are at the track, and a weird horse wins, and you hear over the loud speaker right after the race, the winning trainer being asked to come to the racing secretary's office, it's probably so the secretary can gloat. Lol. True story.)
So, if the horse just does not fit in the race, you at least know that this option exists which can make it easier to understand at least sometimes. But whatever you do, do not read too much into this angle. Most bettors will be better off not knowing this even happens. It can confuse your normal thought process as a gambler and that would not be good.

[cutchemist42]

Thought I'd post this here for everyone, but Belmont post draw is complete.

1 Medal Count 20-1
2 California Chrome 3-5
3 Matterhorn 30-1
4 Commanding Curve 15-1
5 Ride on Curlin 12-1
6 Matuzak 30-1
7 Samraat 20-1
8 Commissioner 20-1
9 Wicked Strong 6-1
10 General a Rod 20-1
11 Tonalist 8-1

[sandyw123]

[QUOTE=str;21985387]As try try try said, Kid Cruz is out.

You are right about CC is no lock. He has a helluva chance but there are no locks in that game.

I saw earlier today that Kid Cruz and Social Inclusion were both out when looking at the post draw. I have a question about post position in the Belmont. Could an inside post in such a long race with wide turns be an advantage? Could a horse save some ground by being a little inside? It seems like it would take a horse with a great deal of speed and stamina to win from the outside with those wide turns at a mile and a half. Would the #2 position possibly be a good draw for California Chrome? He's done pretty well so far running from inside posts.

[cutchemist42]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1462164

Thought I'd also post the PP in here.

[str]

[QUOTE=sandyw123;21990535]

As try try try said, Kid Cruz is out.

You are right about CC is no lock. He has a helluva chance but there are no locks in that game.

I saw earlier today that Kid Cruz and Social Inclusion were both out when looking at the post draw. I have a question about post position in the Belmont. Could an inside post in such a long race with wide turns be an advantage? Could a horse save some ground by being a little inside? It seems like it would take a horse with a great deal of speed and stamina to win from the outside with those wide turns at a mile and a half. Would the #2 position possibly be a good draw for California Chrome? He's done pretty well so far running from inside posts.

Yes. An inside post will usually be advantageous when breaking just before a turn. At Belmont though, because the turns are so sweeping, losing some ground is not as detrimental as it would be if the turns were sharper.

In this case, we assume that because CC's recent trips have been about a clean right eye and not being pinned inside and we assume that they will want to do that again if they can. That makes perfect sense. So, while the 2 post might cause a problem, CC got a break IMO when the speeds, Tonalist and you would think, General A Rod, drew way outside and well away from CC. That's good because it will take some time to pin CC and that time will leave Espinosa with options. Samraat has position speed and might want to make it a little tight on CC. That would be the plan if it could happen I assume, but things have to break a certain way. We don't know if CC breaks clean, although he seems to be better in the gate these days than he was in March and April. And getting pinned by one horse around the 1st turn isn't necessarily terrible. You just don't want to be pinned from the beginning of the clubhouse turn all the way to the far turn. The horse has a ton of tactical speed and with only 4 other horses that want to be anywhere close early ( Medal Count really doesn't matter because he is inside of CC early) I would have to think that getting where the jock wants to be will not be a big problem. You never know for sure but he has a very decent chance of being wherever he wants too be by the time 1/2 the race has been run. As long as that is the case, the 2 hole should be fine although a trainer is never comfortable with any post. Most trainers will look at what might go wrong with a post before they look at what might go right with a post. Pessimism always seems to creep in before optimism finally takes over. Lol.

Yes he has done very well with inside posts so far and this one looks like the least amount of horses that could irritate him early on, but you never know for sure.

[sandyw123]

[QUOTE=str;21991953]

Yes. An inside post will usually be advantageous when breaking just before a turn. At Belmont though, because the turns are so sweeping, losing some ground is not as detrimental as it would be if the turns were sharper.

In this case, we assume that because CC's recent trips have been about a clean right eye and not being pinned inside and we assume that they will want to do that again if they can. That makes perfect sense. So, while the 2 post might cause a problem, CC got a break IMO when the speeds, Tonalist and you would think, General A Rod, drew way outside and well away from CC. That's good because it will take some time to pin CC and that time will leave Espinosa with options. Samraat has position speed and might want to make it a little tight on CC. That would be the plan if it could happen I assume, but things have to break a certain way. We don't know if CC breaks clean, although he seems to be better in the gate these days than he was in March and April. And getting pinned by one horse around the 1st turn isn't necessarily terrible. You just don't want to be pinned from the beginning of the clubhouse turn all the way to the far turn. The horse has a ton of tactical speed and with only 4 other horses that want to be anywhere close early ( Medal Count really doesn't matter because he is inside of CC early) I would have to think that getting where the jock wants to be will not be a big problem. You never know for sure but he has a very decent chance of being wherever he wants too be by the time 1/2 the race has been run. As long as that is the case, the 2 hole should be fine although a trainer is never comfortable with any post. Most trainers will look at what might go wrong with a post before they look at what might go right with a post. Pessimism always seems to creep in before optimism finally takes over. Lol.

Yes he has done very well with inside posts so far and this one looks like the least amount of horses that could irritate him early on, but you never know for sure.

I'm really not seeing the horses that you mentioned being close to the lead early as being a problem to California Chrome either. I am now a little worried about Commanding Curve, where as I wasn't before. If he was fatigued after the Kentucky Derby, he certainly looks fit now after a 47.1 4 furlong workout on the Belmont track. His trainer reported that he was in stronger physical condition now than he was before the Kentucky Derby. Although he closed from the clouds in that race, he doesn't appear to be a pure closer and has run well just off the lead in some of his earlier races. If California Chrome has another perfect trip (hope), we should finally see a Triple Crown winner. It would be nice to see a horse of the middle class, working man win it all.