[str]

I'm really trying to come to a decision on how to handle from a
Handicapping perspective either an expensive horse up for sale
1st or 2nd start (I'll include homebred with big pedigrees in this
category). While of course some of them will win I would guess
over the long haul these types aren't profitable. When I see them
from here on out, going to bet against them or just pass on the
race.. Thanks again for helping me to see it from a trainers perspective

I doubt that they are profitable at all in the long run. They are typically bet down as you know.

Your play against or pass is probably as good as any.

Do understand that when these horses are bought as yearlings, while plenty of good info is out there, they have never had a saddle on their backs. Just like draft picks, no matter how much homework you do, it is never clear until it is too late. Because a trainer has plenty of time with the horses before they ever race, while they can't know everything about the horse, they DO know an awful lot. It is unreasonable to think that a trainer whose owner paid a lot of money for a horse, and that amount is published for all to see, would try and " steal" a race or risk losing a horse unless there was a very good reason.
It's not always about soundness. Maybe the horse just can't run. Big, strong, good looking, great temperament, no breathing problems, and can't outrun the pony. Just like people, it happens.
Any time JBEX.

[JBEX]

I like POOL PLAY in the BC Marathon for many reasons as I wrote
about in my thread.. Wanted to see if you agree with me or that
it might be a possibility that one of the things PP did in his last race
might benefit him at this oddball 14f on the dirt.. He ran dead last ,
around 20 lengths behind at each call in a listed stakes won by Fort
Larned @8.5f.The winning Beyer in that race was approximately 108
while PP ran a 73..

Considering PP will have to run 70% further in the marathon than he did his
last race could you see running like he did evenly way back of
the pack benefiting him heading towards this race.. Kind of like a crisp mile
work to give him some fitness for the long journey ahead @ Santa Anita

[JBEX]

I like POOL PLAY in the BC Marathon for many reasons as I wrote
about in my thread.. Wanted to see if you agree with me or that
it might be a possibility that one of the things PP did in his last race
might benefit him at this oddball 14f on the dirt.. He ran dead last ,
around 20 lengths behind at each call in a listed stakes won by Fort
Larned @8.5f.The winning Beyer in that race was approximately 108
while PP ran a 73..

Considering PP will have to run 70% further in the marathon than he did his
last race could you see running like he did evenly way back of
the pack benefiting him heading towards this race.. Kind of like a crisp mile
work to give him some fitness for the long journey ahead @ Santa Anita

Just to be accurate the last race he exited was 9f not 8.5

[str]

I like POOL PLAY in the BC Marathon for many reasons as I wrote
about in my thread.. Wanted to see if you agree with me or that
it might be a possibility that one of the things PP did in his last race
might benefit him at this oddball 14f on the dirt.. He ran dead last ,
around 20 lengths behind at each call in a listed stakes won by Fort
Larned @8.5f.The winning Beyer in that race was approximately 108
while PP ran a 73..

Considering PP will have to run 70% further in the marathon than he did his
last race could you see running like he did evenly way back of
the pack benefiting him heading towards this race.. Kind of like a crisp mile
work to give him some fitness for the long journey ahead @ Santa Anita

It will not hurt .

Your theory is correct, almost like sprinting a horse so you can stretch him out. I assume that the horse runs further than 1 1/8th usually?
Also assume that he was a long long shot with no chance last time?

Was the race only 5 or 6 horses?

If so, he could have done the racing office a favor by entering in order to " fill" the race for Fort Larned.

You work with them, they work with you in the way of more stalls possibly, writing a certain race for you, etc. Politics.


If I get a form, I will be able to see his pp's.

[JBEX]

It will not hurt .

Your theory is correct, almost like sprinting a horse so you can stretch him out. I assume that the horse runs further than 1 1/8th usually?
Also assume that he was a long long shot with no chance last time?

Was the race only 5 or 6 horses?

If so, he could have done the racing office a favor by entering in order to " fill" the race for Fort Larned.

You work with them, they work with you in the way of more stalls possibly, writing a certain race for you, etc. Politics.


If I get a form, I will be able to see his pp's.

It was a 6 horse field and Fort Larned was less than 1/5 so likely
he was just a field filler. His form has been off this year except for
a 3rd place finish two back in a G3 @ 12f in the mud. Feel he was
running over his head for the most part and this oddball distance
might wake him up. Two years ago he won consecutive races of 13f
and 14f on the poly at WO. He followed up those two races with 3
competitive races (1) 11f and next two 12f vs graded company on the turf .. If you
get a form let me know what you think

[JBEX]

Nothing to do with his chances today. Just like your general opinion of this situation

875k bernardini colt purchased yearling @ Kee September sale
Raced once November as a 2yo

8/8' 7/6' 5/7' 5/14... field size 10.. distance mile Aqueduct
he beyered 56 which would make the winners Beyer around 83
which is not a horrible effort factoring in also he broke slow. Second
was race was about a month ago where he was up for a 35K tag and ran a decent
4th with a 73 Beyer. Horse was claimed by Linda Rice

Would have to think connections are quite confident this horse won't
amount to much. Would you guess he was injured to be
out that long? If this were a filly would this be an even worse sign
cause they'd probably want to try her as a broodmare?

[str]

It was a 6 horse field and Fort Larned was less than 1/5 so likely
he was just a field filler. His form has been off this year except for
a 3rd place finish two back in a G3 @ 12f in the mud. Feel he was
running over his head for the most part and this oddball distance
might wake him up. Two years ago he won consecutive races of 13f
and 14f on the poly at WO. He followed up those two races with 3
competitive races (1) 11f and next two 12f vs graded company on the turf .. If you
get a form let me know what you think

I never got a form for that day.

Sorry I could not help more.

[str]

Nothing to do with his chances today. Just like your general opinion of this situation

875k bernardini colt purchased yearling @ Kee September sale
Raced once November as a 2yo

8/8' 7/6' 5/7' 5/14... field size 10.. distance mile Aqueduct
he beyered 56 which would make the winners Beyer around 83
which is not a horrible effort factoring in also he broke slow. Second
was race was about a month ago where he was up for a 35K tag and ran a decent
4th with a 73 Beyer. Horse was claimed by Linda Rice

Would have to think connections are quite confident this horse won't
amount to much. Would you guess he was injured to be
out that long? If this were a filly would this be an even worse sign
cause they'd probably want to try her as a broodmare?

Q. Would have to think connections are quite confident this horse won't
amount to much.

A. Yes. A flat mile debut in November at Aqueduct is an admission right there that the horse is in all probability slow. As I have said , when a trainer starts a horse out at a mile, the horse is either clumsy because of massive size, not athletic or both . The lone exception is mile and a half sire out of a mile and a quarter mare but how often do you see that. Not very, in the USA.

Q. Would you guess he was injured to be
out that long?

A. Maybe, but I would guess that if he did need time for something, that was probably not the reason he was slow.

Q. If this were a filly would this be an even worse sign
cause they'd probably want to try her as a broodmare?

A. Because it is always a plus to be a winner as a broodmare, and with that kind of price tag and pedigree, if the trainer knew the horse was slow, clumsy, or both, running her ( if he was a she) in a MSW at a lesser venue, thus lesser quality, would be an option but as you know, most MSW races in November or December are not usually all that tough anyway. Waiting for the better horses to ship south for the winter and running her in December when I was sure the race would be weak might have been my plan ( if he was a she). Run, win, breed. Only running once and breeding is not THAT bad but being a winner always looks better in the catalog than "raced once and was unplaced".

So yes, if he was a she, and if they ran her for 35k that would be terrible unless they paid that much purely on looks. I would find that hard to believe. It's one thing to pay 250 or 325k for a yearling. Paying 875k is a another story.

Hope that helps.

[JBEX]

Interesting... I'm aware you've mentioned before that starting
horses in route races generally speaking not a good sign.. even
if that's what they're bred to do down the road.. I had always figured
it to be neither good or bad so that's nice to know.. Never thought in
terms of running late in the year to catch a weaker field but can understand
the importance of getting a win on her resume to go along with the big
pedigree and price tag if it was a filly.



While I've got your attention I just saw something in the first race at AQU
that I'd like your thoughts (nothing to do with betting it).. 2yo first time
starter by Bernardini (coincidence) and is a half to Banshee Breeze who won
2.78 million. The horse is a gelding which you think would be something
that they wouldn't want to do right away with those bloodlines considering
his sire potential down the road. Horse ran a big race finishing 2nd by a half
length to a Chad Brown expensive well bred firster who won @ 1/2..Sure there's
a good reason for this but like to hear what you have to say


One other thing.. El oh El is scheduled to run next Wednesday in
the 2nd race at AQU same condition as last race where he won but
was disqualified (rightly so) for bearing out in the stretch.. He ran a
gutty race last time fighting back on the inside after he was passed

[str]

Interesting... I'm aware you've mentioned before that starting
horses in route races generally speaking not a good sign.. even
if that's what they're bred to do down the road.. I had always figured
it to be neither good or bad so that's nice to know.. Never thought in
terms of running late in the year to catch a weaker field but can understand
the importance of getting a win on her resume to go along with the big
pedigree and price tag if it was a filly.



While I've got your attention I just saw something in the first race at AQU
that I'd like your thoughts (nothing to do with betting it).. 2yo first time
starter by Bernardini (coincidence) and is a half to Banshee Breeze who won
2.78 million. The horse is a gelding which you think would be something
that they wouldn't want to do right away with those bloodlines considering
his sire potential down the road. Horse ran a big race finishing 2nd by a half
length to a Chad Brown expensive well bred firster who won @ 1/2..Sure there's
a good reason for this but like to hear what you have to say


One other thing.. El oh El is scheduled to run next Wednesday in
the 2nd race at AQU same condition as last race where he won but
was disqualified (rightly so) for bearing out in the stretch.. He ran a
gutty race last time fighting back on the inside after he was passed

Q. . I'm aware you've mentioned before that starting
horses in route races generally speaking not a good sign.. even
if that's what they're bred to do down the road.. I had always figured
it to be neither good or bad so that's nice to know..

A. After thinking about it, I speak to 95% or more of trainers when I say that. European style trainers like Sheppard, Motion, Clement, etc. can be an exception. It's always best to know the trainers tendencies. They really do speak volumes .

Q. . 2yo first time
starter by Bernardini (coincidence) and is a half to Banshee Breeze who won
2.78 million. The horse is a gelding which you think would be something
that they wouldn't want to do right away with those bloodlines considering
his sire potential down the road. Horse ran a big race finishing 2nd by a half
length to a Chad Brown expensive well bred firster who won @ 1/2..Sure there's
a good reason for this but like to hear what you have to say

A. While you are right in that they probably preferred to NOT cut/geld him, the horse probably left them little choice. Just like people, a good % of young horses can compete without being gelded but... just like people, you have your certain types that are just roguish or so wrapped up in trying to hurt someone or lay all over the other horse when running in company or whatever the case, they can't at all concentrate on what they are there to do, that is, compete. Now and then, it's the fact that the horse won't extend fully because it hurts him to run full out but that is a very small % of horses. Whatever the case, and for whatever reason, the horse needed it in order to have a chance to be all he could be. I say that because of his bloodlines. The vast majority of cheaper horses that are geldings are simply gelded because of there back end value or lack of it. It's just easier on the horse and trainer if you geld them as two year olds.
FYI: If you geld a horse too young, it can really stunt their growth and, or muscle mass. Just like larger dogs.

Q. El oh El is scheduled to run next Wednesday in
the 2nd race at AQU same condition as last race where he won but
was disqualified (rightly so) for bearing out in the stretch.. He ran a
gutty race last time fighting back on the inside after he was passed

A. Thanks for the heads up. I actually was home and was able to watch his last race. Yes, he probably should have come down but not for the 1st bump IMO. That was mild and he was being hit left handed. It was the 2nd bump when he came out into the right handed stick that sealed it, I think. Stewards will allow a mild bump if the rider can switch sticks and the problem is corrected with that. Not always, each set of Stewards is different, like baseball umps having slightly different strike zones, but more often than not.
He did run gutty, as most horses with problems do. I would expect a repeat effort this time, assuming the others in the race are ordinary and his post/trip is decent.

[JBEX]

Seems like the common theme is the horse can only do what he's capable
of doing.. If you paid 200k and he only has the ability of a 50k claimer that's
where you run him. Obviously the owners had higher expectations but they also
understand the realities and risks of the game . From my perspective a horse
like that could be well meant to run at a 50k tag and doesn't necessarily have to be
completely washed up (talking starts 1-3). You can't just toss them automatically.
Gelding the bernardini was a good example of you have to do what the situation
requires. A horse like that compiles a great record and is not gelded has a chance
to make a killing as a sire however if the horse has behavioral issues that aren't
correctable the connections have little choice in the matter. Not what they wanted
but that's the best return they'll get out of their investment with the horse the way
he is.

Appreciate all the detailed answers and you have definitely improved my
understanding on these things. Definitely will be asking you a few more
questions in the coming weeks but will give it a rest for a little while.. Thanks again

[harthebar]

Hello, str ... Hey i was wondering , remember about 9 months ago i was all over goldenscents, and you were telling me he was having atroble being rated, do you think that is why they put him in the mile classic, it looked to me he just fired out and just kept going, , i did here his name in one of the horses for horse of the year , for one of the awards, whats your thought on that...i just thpought out of all the races ,,,his win was one of the most impressive

[str]

Seems like the common theme is the horse can only do what he's capable
of doing.. If you paid 200k and he only has the ability of a 50k claimer that's
where you run him. Obviously the owners had higher expectations but they also
understand the realities and risks of the game . From my perspective a horse
like that could be well meant to run at a 50k tag and doesn't necessarily have to be
completely washed up (talking starts 1-3). You can't just toss them automatically.
Gelding the bernardini was a good example of you have to do what the situation
requires. A horse like that compiles a great record and is not gelded has a chance
to make a killing as a sire however if the horse has behavioral issues that aren't
correctable the connections have little choice in the matter. Not what they wanted
but that's the best return they'll get out of their investment with the horse the way
he is.

Appreciate all the detailed answers and you have definitely improved my
understanding on these things. Definitely will be asking you a few more
questions in the coming weeks but will give it a rest for a little while.. Thanks again

Anytime JBEX.

I am happy to help any way I can.

Best of Luck.

[str]

Hello, str ... Hey i was wondering , remember about 9 months ago i was all over goldenscents, and you were telling me he was having atroble being rated, do you think that is why they put him in the mile classic, it looked to me he just fired out and just kept going, , i did here his name in one of the horses for horse of the year , for one of the awards, whats your thought on that...i just thpought out of all the races ,,,his win was one of the most impressive

Try as they might, he would not fully adapt to relaxing with dirt tossed back at him. Many horses are that way so as a trainer, you try and make him adjust but when he wants no part of it you do the next best thing, which is to put him in situations where he can thrive doing what he wants to do. So, the 1 1/4 stuff is probably out the window and at this point they are trying to win a one mile race. It is basically a long sprint. So they will try that , hopeful of winning the Cigar mile and getting considered for 3 yr. old sprinter or 3 yr. old male of the year.
It's all about money and the award would help his breeding stock quite a bit. So it's worth a shot.
Once he becomes a sire, look for his offspring to be 7/8ths type horses or maybe milers. That probably it. Some, make that plenty, will be faint hearted one dimensional speed balls, but he could throw some talent because he sure does have some, it's just the all or nothing style talent, which is OK I guess. Just not optimal.

You made a great call on him early in his career. He was very talented and was close to being really good.

Good eye Harthebar.

Tell your aunt Nancy I said hello if you talk to her over the holidays.

[JBEX]

El oh El

15kb clm aqu 11/13 @ 1 mile
running line...

4-3 *2-1 *2-2'* 3-2'* 5-7'

entered...

5kn2l clm lrl 11/21 R5 @ 1 mile

they've made about 5k with him since the
claim for 35k four starts back.. Winners share
at lrl 8.4k(14k purse).. Without seeing the rest of the field
I'm guessing he's live and be about 4/5 if he doesn't
scratch him

[JBEX]

El oh El

15kb clm aqu 11/13 @ 1 mile
running line...

4-3 *2-1 *2-2'* 3-2'* 5-7'

entered...

5kn2l clm lrl 11/21 R5 @ 1 mile

they've made about 5k with him since the
claim for 35k four starts back.. Winners share
at lrl 8.4k(14k purse).. Without seeing the rest of the field
I'm guessing he's live and be about 4/5 if he doesn't
scratch him

He ran a similar running line for 35k before they dropped
him in for 15k where he won but was disqualified for
bearing out in the stretch

[str]

El oh El

15kb clm aqu 11/13 @ 1 mile
running line...

4-3 *2-1 *2-2'* 3-2'* 5-7'

entered...

5kn2l clm lrl 11/21 R5 @ 1 mile

they've made about 5k with him since the
claim for 35k four starts back.. Winners share
at lrl 8.4k(14k purse).. Without seeing the rest of the field
I'm guessing he's live and be about 4/5 if he doesn't
scratch him

He did not run well at all off that solid effort did he?

So he lays him in for a nickle @ Laurel. Well, I guess we will see who his go to trainer is in Laurel. Can't imagine he will be allowed back on the NY grounds. Typically, when you run for less than a track offers, you are not allowed back on the grounds. So it's usually a one way trip. He will probably leave him in Md. with someone.

In hindsight, the C.T route I spoke too would have probably been a better fit but...hindsight is 20/20 and if he doesn't drift out, he gets that purse at least.

[str]

He ran a similar running line for 35k before they dropped
him in for 15k where he won but was disqualified for
bearing out in the stretch

Not being able to run 2 efforts in a row is not good at all.

Being unsound should not be the problem unless he is done and this or his next race will be his last race for a long time. I did not see his last race to see the horse and compare outings so I just don't know.

[harthebar]

i will tell her , and thanks a lot , , i remember the day i saw that horse he was warming for his first race out in calif. he just so good, placed a little bet on him and he just looked special, and also it was a little over a year , since Sandy hit my home, you gave me some solid pointers , thank you for that also

Try as they might, he would not fully adapt to relaxing with dirt tossed back at him. Many horses are that way so as a trainer, you try and make him adjust but when he wants no part of it you do the next best thing, which is to put him in situations where he can thrive doing what he wants to do. So, the 1 1/4 stuff is probably out the window and at this point they are trying to win a one mile race. It is basically a long sprint. So they will try that , hopeful of winning the Cigar mile and getting considered for 3 yr. old sprinter or 3 yr. old male of the year.
It's all about money and the award would help his breeding stock quite a bit. So it's worth a shot.
Once he becomes a sire, look for his offspring to be 7/8ths type horses or maybe milers. That probably it. Some, make that plenty, will be faint hearted one dimensional speed balls, but he could throw some talent because he sure does have some, it's just the all or nothing style talent, which is OK I guess. Just not optimal.

You made a great call on him early in his career. He was very talented and was close to being really good.

Good eye Harthebar.

Tell your aunt Nancy I said hello if you talk to her over the holidays.

[JBEX]

El oh El will fit a lot of conditions at Lrl and of course for lower tags..
n2L/n3L and as a 3yo will be able to race in the "clm B" races assuming he
runs well in the others... Drew the 12 post for Thursday's race which
certainly is not gonna help his cause

[str]

El oh El will fit a lot of conditions at Lrl and of course for lower tags..
n2L/n3L and as a 3yo will be able to race in the "clm B" races assuming he
runs well in the others... Drew the 12 post for Thursday's race which
certainly is not gonna help his cause

The horse was scratched yesterday but I found out from a friend of mine that Jacobson leaves all his Md. horses with a trainer named
Assimakopoulos. He is a Boston guy (Suffolk I guess) in the summer but comes to Laurel in the winter. So, I would think that both horses shipped down yesterday, the horse that ran and the scratch and are now with this guy.

Like I said, every trainer has a go to guy out of town when horses need a lesser venue and for Jacobson , this guy is it.

[JBEX]

El oh El entered to run weds 11/27 aqu race 2 in a
16k n2L @ 7.5f. Really thought he was dropping him
too far based on his performance last out. The race
was 5 lengths faster on the Beyer scale than the previous
race he won at the same level and was disqualified from.
Would also think losing the half furlong wouldn't hurt
his cause either the way he runs. I think if he wins
here he'll try to get him through the next condition (n3l)
and then try to get him in another clm B condition which
he's still eligible for as a 3yo. Might be an effective inner
track horse with his early speed

By the way.. If you have had enough of following this horse
let me know.No hard feelings

[jennywilsonhrs]

With all of your past experience with horse racing, have you come across a virtual horse racing game that you recommend? In online horse games, we can become a horse breeder, owner, trainer or jockey, and of course, we can place bets too.

[str]

El oh El entered to run weds 11/27 aqu race 2 in a
16k n2L @ 7.5f. Really thought he was dropping him
too far based on his performance last out. The race
was 5 lengths faster on the Beyer scale than the previous
race he won at the same level and was disqualified from.
Would also think losing the half furlong wouldn't hurt
his cause either the way he runs. I think if he wins
here he'll try to get him through the next condition (n3l)
and then try to get him in another clm B condition which
he's still eligible for as a 3yo. Might be an effective inner
track horse with his early speed

By the way.. If you have had enough of following this horse
let me know.No hard feelings

Keep me posted JBEX

I will never get tired of talking about horses.

[str]

With all of your past experience with horse racing, have you come across a virtual horse racing game that you recommend? In online horse games, we can become a horse breeder, owner, trainer or jockey, and of course, we can place bets too.

I had no idea that existed. That sounds great. I might look into that. What are some sites you have seen?

I have only seen the lottery style races that businesses have running. I get a kick out of the names of some of the horses. Many former champions names are used. I would never bet on those though. Can't deal with lottery odds.

Welcome to the horse sub forum Jenny.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody.

[JBEX]

R9 aqu clm12.5n2L @ 6f on Sunday .... guess who ;-)
Don't think the shorter distance will bother him with
the early zip he's shown at a mile.. Think it might actually
be a better fit. Think he lays waste to this field at around
even money(3-1 ml) .. I'd play 10/68 in exactas

[str]

R9 aqu clm12.5n2L @ 6f on Sunday .... guess who ;-)
Don't think the shorter distance will bother him with
the early zip he's shown at a mile.. Think it might actually
be a better fit. Think he lays waste to this field at around
even money(3-1 ml) .. I'd play 10/68 in exactas

Typically, horses coming off of a one turn flat mile (not a 2 turn mile) will be about 4 lengths, maybe 4 1/2, further back early than where they would probably be going a flat one turn mile in a 6F race if off of a mile race. If it was 7 1/2 F a little less in lengths back early. That is a rule of thumb but a solid one. Factoring in any drop in class as well as how much speed is actually in the race can give you a sense of where he should be early, assuming normal breaking habits, etc. Then, it's simply a matter of " do you think he can close X amount of lengths and beat this field". Do make sure the track is playing at least somewhat to that scenario though, that is, closers and outside, which is where you would assume he would be unless that jock, I assume a bug boy, is a rail hugging rider. Some bug boys are .

The one thing that I always hated about scenarios that this horse finds himself in when I was doing it, is that he has now been entered at least 3 times over 2-3 weeks it seems, to run. That means he has no training schedule whatsoever. No pointing him towards anything. He just does his light work but there is no purpose to his training schedule. Don't get me wrong, he can win, but, if he does, the reasoning will be that he loved the turn back in distance and the drop and the added time was no problem. If he losses we can blame the distance, having no training plan at all, just entering wherever and whenever the condition book tells us too, and whatever else comes along.
I have no idea if he will run well today and would never try and dissuade you from a play but with the screw ups in his training program, cancellations, etc. however good or bad he runs today, I would look closely at him next race. That is because if he comes off of a good race today, he did not mind any of it and is simply much better than the others. If he runs evenly today, he will probably stretch him back out somewhat and fairly quickly and that is a very solid betting angle, that is, running back in 10 days or less and stretching out off a sprint. He will be 2-3 lengths closer than he typically would be in a flat mile type race off a sprint. Often times, when coming off a sprint and returning inside of 2 weeks, the horse will also break much sharper than typical in that race. The downside , if there would be one, would be the next race after that stretch out. Many people will call that a bounce. It really isn't but that word sells sheets and Beyer numbers so whatever someone wants to call it is fine I guess. I just want to be sure that the readers of this thread understand the difference and then they can make their own mind up.
Good luck today JBEX.

[JBEX]

Can understand the training schedule being thrown off by
being scratched twice before. Jacobson never seems to work
his horses fast but I'm sure pointing towards a race he has
some sort of jogging, galloping schedule for all his horses as
all trainers do. Great commentary as always.. Like 4 - micromanage
in the previous race for a DD

[str]

Can understand the training schedule being thrown off by
being scratched twice before. Jacobson never seems to work
his horses fast but I'm sure pointing towards a race he has
some sort of jogging, galloping schedule for all his horses as
all trainers do. Great commentary as always.. Like 4 - micromanage
in the previous race for a DD

No question he has a jog, gallop schedule . You might walk 3 days, jog a day , then gallop a week but when you get close to a race, you typically do a little something different to get the horse where you want them, such as, let them pick it up through the lane 3 days out, then walk, then jog then run the next day. Just a little something to get them on their toes. The problem is, if that is what he had on his mind, he has done it 3 different times now in 3 weeks. In hindsight, had he set a 3 week schedule in the beginning, it would have read completely different than how it reads now. That was my point. It's not what he wanted at the end of 3 weeks but he did not know it would be 3 weeks. See what I mean? Not his fault at all. Circumstances caused it but win or lose, he would have loved to train him differently with the benefit of hindsight. That scenario used to drive me crazy but it's what you deal with in the winter and with extra races that are written 2 days ahead of time and not in the book for weeks in advance to point towards or just having to scratch multiple times.

Good luck with your DD if you play it.

[str]

Doug O'Neill was fined 1,500 for treating a horse one hour before it was scheduled to run. He said it was an honest mistake made by his foreman and he meant to give the amino acid paste to another horse that was scheduled to run the next day.

Great excuse except for the fact that NO horse can be treated "period" within 48 hours of racing except for Lasix from a licensed vet.

Well said Doug.

On a side note, I know exactly what he was giving and it's not a potent drug . With that said, the only guys I ever knew of that gave that just before racing were trainers with multiple drug positives and constant infractions.

Without full knowledge it is difficult to make an absolute stand on this IMO but... if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, well, you get the picture.

[JBEX]

Hey str

Long time since we last communicated and a belated Happy New Year
to you.. Assimakopoulos has a Jacobson horse going in
the 1st @ Lrl tomorrow. Realize with the weather they might
not run at all but even if they don't, think this 5yo gelding will do
some damage down there when he does run. If they do run and
the other two main contenders (5,6)don't scratch, think he'll be about
his ml odds (3-1) at post.. Lincoln Flyer and it's a mdn 8k

[str]

Hey str

Long time since we last communicated and a belated Happy New Year
to you.. Assimakopoulos has a Jacobson horse going in
the 1st @ Lrl tomorrow. Realize with the weather they might
not run at all but even if they don't, think this 5yo gelding will do
some damage down there when he does run. If they do run and
the other two main contenders (5,6)don't scratch, think he'll be about
his ml odds (3-1) at post.. Lincoln Flyer and it's a mdn 8k

Thanks JBEX. Same to you.

Races were cancelled to we will wait and see but you are probably correct .

Due watch out on days when snow is removed and/or it is bitterly cold out at Laurel for a severe bias to show up.

Not always and it can be in several forms of speed, rail, or outside closers. This is due to how much cushion is removed with the snow blower on the inside and were they able to grade the track after the removal. Without being there to watch around 11AM , it's a guess . Looking under the inside rail can give you a heads up though, as I have explained before. Happy to explain again, if someone never read it.

On days when it is so cold they cannot water the surface, it gets very powdery and typically favors closers. You just have to watch to be sure which makes the 1st race tricky. As long as you don't over play the 1st race, it's no big deal but heavy betting on the 1st can be a crap shoot.

Let's wait for this one to re enter and see what happens.

What ever happened to the LOL horse?

[JBEX]

I should have made this clear in my previous posts that I don't
play due to my finances. I love the challenge of capping the races
and don't really miss the betting anyway. Have been in control
of myself for well over a decade but have gotten in trouble a few
times in my lifetime.. not worth it to me

I just thought this recent one looked like a good wake up candidate
at a slightly lower level. The bias stuff is beyond what I ca keep
track of but I must admit the knowledge that you have of it is certainly
valuable.Do you think this would apply to the inner track at Aqueduct
also?


Don't really keep a close watch on lol anymore although
I do get the notifications.. He got through n2L in a sprint
on the inner and also cleared n3L and think it was in a route
race but not 100% sure. Now he'll have to tackle the opens
so we'll see if he's up to it

[str]

I should have made this clear in my previous posts that I don't
play due to my finances. I love the challenge of capping the races
and don't really miss the betting anyway. Have been in control
of myself for well over a decade but have gotten in trouble a few
times in my lifetime.. not worth it to me

I just thought this recent one looked like a good wake up candidate
at a slightly lower level. The bias stuff is beyond what I ca keep
track of but I must admit the knowledge that you have of it is certainly
valuable.Do you think this would apply to the inner track at Aqueduct
also?


Don't really keep a close watch on lol anymore although
I do get the notifications.. He got through n2L in a sprint
on the inner and also cleared n3L and think it was in a route
race but not 100% sure. Now he'll have to tackle the opens
so we'll see if he's up to it

Q. Do you think this would apply to the inner track at Aqueduct
also?

A. Absolutely.

Any winter track with cold weather must be graded many many more times, and plenty of times all night, to keep the dirt from freezing if it has any moisture in it which almost all do on the east coast this time of year. As a result, due to the pitch of the track, the dirt moves down hill slightly with each pass of the harrow. Multiply those passes by 50 or more passes per day because of the cold, and you have tracks that need to be graded every day. If they can not get on the track it is a very dead rail because of excess cushion. If they get on the track every day with the road grader, human error is almost certain every 4 or 5 days. Controlling the blade to an exact position is impossible day to day. The result is too much off the rail or not enough off the rail. Not every day, but often enough. THAT, is how a bias is created.
This will hold true for every winter venue over time.

Yes, it's plenty of work and plenty of patience but if you enjoy huge edges in pari mutual betting, this is certainly one of them.

Not to say biases are everyday and everywhere. I am not a conspiracy theory guy by any means, but having watched this 1st hand for years, and being able to take advantage of what I learned while I was there, to not understand that it can exist but more importantly, WHY and HOW it exists, is foolish.

I spelled all this out at great length but it is buried in this thread now.

I never followed NY in the winter but I know for a fact that the inner track used to be a bias haven. Not positive about now, some of the guys in here that play the big A could help out I am sure.

[JBEX]

So if I understand this correctly the track needs to be harrowed much
more frequently in the cold weather so the dirt tdoesn't freeze. This means
the track will need to be graded (guessing these are different things) more often
to compensate for the track being harrowed more often?