Originally Posted by
str
Without knowing the exact problem, but there is little doubt one exists, it would be a pure guess at this point.
I am not sure how much lower NY racing goes for a 3 year old this time of year. I also do not follow the trainer well enough to know if he has a string at another track or not. If he did, that would be the logical move . Hard to imagine that anyone would claim a 3 year old this time of year with bad recent form , the obvious gap for necessity, the lack of works, fronts on, etc. If they watched the replay of the race the other day, they would see the same thing I did, that is, a horse hitting the ground real hard.
Giving him time to heal could be an option but some injuries clean up great while others is a 50-50 prop and time is money. Along with the typical 20% price devaluation that hits many 3 year olds of claiming value when they turn 4 years old, time is no bargain.
Every trainer has a "go to" trainer at a lesser track if they only stable and race at one track( don't know if that's the case). Someone that follows NY racing must know who this go to trainer is. You can sell them to that trainer, send them to that trainer and the owners continue to own and try and get out that way, or a few other options.
With a horse like this, he is a n/w of 2 lifetime. If for instance this horse went to Charles Town, he would in all probability dominate a n/w of 2 allowance field going 1 1/16th. He nets about 11K after everything. Do it again in a n/w of 3 with the same result.
Then run n/w of 4 lifetime for 12,500. Probably net 9K . If claimed, you have 43K and probably lose 5 k total for the deal. Of course, that is easier said than done but because he has those conditions, he still have value.
It just all depends on what is wrong, can he run with it, can it be fixed or only managed, etc. But as long as he has those n/w conditions, he carries a value.
There is always the slim chance that he has always hit the ground hard and he merely tired from not being fit. While that is a stretch, it could indeed be true. Again, without knowing the horse at all and not being able to spend any time around him, it's a best guess. One thing is for sure, the trainer knows how to get it done. He wins at a high rate and runs them in winning spots. What ever he comes up with, he will have given it a lot of thought. That, I know for sure. Been there, done that.
Keep an eye on the horse and let me know if and when he runs back.