[str]

Thank you! I started not doing well with my wagering recently and felt like I had to be overlooking something (maybe the jockeys). I'm looking more closely at that now. I decided to try my luck today on race 6 at Delmar. Based on the trainers, jockeys, and the consistency of the horses; I'm going with Surfcup (Rafael Bejarano), Pure Loyalty (Gary Stevens), and Brother Pete (Joe Talamo) in a $1 trifecta box. Actually the trainer that Gary Stevens is riding for is not as high % as the other 2; but the horse has been running well, and Gary Stevens just seems to always ride his best (no matter what).

I checked the results and although it didn't work out this time, it is a tool that you should use within the total overview. You can't use it alone though. It is a tool. With that said, you ran first and the 3rd horse was 12-1. Steven's horse ran poorly and I did not see the race so I have no clue as to why.
Do remember that while you can consider this at Santa Anita and other major venues, it works best at lesser tracks where the jockey colony is less talented therefore the difference in talent from leading rider to just a rider in greater.
As for Gary Stevens, he is riding like a kid right now. He is old enough to realize that this window will only be open for a short while. I do not know him at all having only met him once and that was ages ago. I can tell you that he is a completely different guy now, more mature about the reality's of life for sure. The Chris Antley ordeal put a lot of things in perspective for him I am sure. He really gets it now and I am always glad to see him do well.
Best of luck and let me know if I can help. Happy to do so.

[cutchemist42]

Thank you ! I hope it has helped you see things more clearly.

I had to laugh when I saw you said that the shippers were from the south only because I would assume that there aren't very many from the north side of Assiniboia. I absolutely know what you mean though.
I would have to ask you , where do the shippers typically come from? Or are they from many different tracks?
I ask because there can be several different answers depending on where most of these shippers come from.

When I was training in Md., every winter a couple of outfits would come down from Woodbine and spend a few months. They would both do the same thing each year. They would aggressively enter their claiming horses and they would claim a few in return to replace the ones they lost via the claim box, but they would also actively try and buy horses privately while there more so than claim. After a year or two, I figured it out. They had run there stock hard during the summer while in Canada and where looking to rotate there stock but more importantly, the dollar exchange was in there favor, so, they were picking up 20-25% value in the money they collected via the claim box. Simply put, they were doing better on paper than it might have looked in the racing form. If indeed that imbalance still exists, that could be why you see new blood from American tracks, especially if there is a trainer and owner change involved. That represents an outright sale.
Because your track runs 2,500 claimers and lower levels, when they just are not good enough to compete at Canterbury or Woodbine, going there makes sense. It is really no different than when a horse could no longer compete in NY., they go to Md. or when they can't do it in Md. they go to Charles Town. The lower levels of n/w of 2 ,n/w of 3 are very easily won by shippers dropping down from 5,000 I would assume. Once they win those two though, at least 1/2 of them are probably finished winning. That would be typical.


Under "any other interesting things to note" , Maybe this will help.

Leading Jockeys at Assiniboia Downs Starting Date: 05/05/2013
Ending Date: 07/20/2013

Name	Starts	1st	2nd	3rd	Earnings
Paul M. Nolan	187	42	38	23	$364,610
Jennifer Reid	204	34	36	35	$316,878
Adolfo A. Morales	127	33	14	20	$293,255
Christopher Husbands	196	31	37	36	$358,260
Tyrone Nelson	151	23	24	16	$232,527
Trevor Simpson	152	22	16	22	$193,825
Adrian B. Ramos	120	19	17	12	$178,540
Renaldo Cumberbatch	85	13	12	10	$94,664
Tori Gandia	124	12	17	19	$113,072
Janine E. Smith	55	10	14	14	$91,087
Skyler Whiteshield	74	7	5	10	$61,002
Chavion Chow	56	4	5	5	$43,663
Clint Magera	49	3	5	5	$32,134
Larry Munoz	38	2	1	4	$18,061
Jordan K. Olesiak	3	2	0	1	$32,220
Marcus Swiontek	44	1	7	13	$28,294
Jerry Pruitt	55	1	7	8	$33,128
Jose M. Rivera, Jr.	45	1	5	7	$26,028
Hilario Estrella	15	0	0	0	$1,254

Here is the jockeys list for that meet. If you bet to win or any exotics within the win structure and IF you had thrown out the bottom 4 jockeys blindly, so far this year you would have tossed out 159 horses from the win slot and only lost 3 times. Now, I have no idea if all 4 of these jocks are always near the bottom but I would assume they are. Also, they are probably not as bad as there record might indicate, or maybe they are, but at this point there mounts are probably only going to decline in ability from here out. However, the jock named Marcus is hitting 3rd at a 30% clip. I will assume that his mounts are typically 10-1 or more, and if so, wouldn't it make sense to eliminate those jocks, and him from a win bet but certainly consider them maybe 2nd and certainly consider Marcus 3rd in a triple or super? I sure would. Little things like that can help construct a ticket that might involve more horses because you have less horses on top. Of course, like anything, it can bite you in the butt doing it that way, but you know that going in and if it helps you hit a triple or super that plays 12-20 times more than the exotic that paid out with one less horse in it within the same race ( like the exacta pays 50.00 but the triple pays 700.00) , it is well worth it.
Do note that I do not discredit this guy Marcus at all. On the contrary, this guy is trying his heart out to get the trainer and owner every penny he can and that speaks volumes in my book. Conversely, look at the leading rider. His 3rd place rate is terrible, and that is not all that uncommon for leading riders. Looks like he is 1,2 or nowhere over 85% of the time. That is another thing to consider if playing exotics. Maybe leave the guy off the ticket in the 3rd spot at 4-5, if you dare. It might just create a bombs away payoff for you.

I hope these things continue to help you and do answer my question about where the shippers come from. That answer will help me better understand what is going on there in regards to shippers and I will follow up.

Good luck.

Typical ones I see off the top of my head,

-North Dakota
-Marquis Downs
-Fonner Park
-Northlands Park
-Canterbury
-Tampa

[JakeLc]

@ Assiniboia where a horse made it's previous start
since 7/25/12

w/p/s %s and w/p/s ROIs/1.00


Shp Unlisted 00082 00007 09% 22% 32% 0.60 0.73 0.65

Shp ASD 02701 00390 14% 29% 44% 0.72 0.75 0.76

Shp BEU 00001 00000 00% 100 100 0.00 4.15 2.60

Shp CBY 00032 00004 13% 28% 41% 0.85 1.25 0.99

Shp CLS 00005 00000 00% 00% 20% 0.00 0.00 0.72

Shp CNL 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp CRC 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp DED 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp DMR 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp ELP 00001 00000 00% 100 100 0.00 1.20 1.05

Shp EMD 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp FE 00005 00002 40% 80% 80% 3.50 2.98 2.01

Shp FG 00005 00000 00% 20% 20% 0.00 0.40 0.38

Shp FON 00022 00003 14% 32% 41% 0.41 0.79 0.61

Shp GG 00008 00000 00% 13% 13% 0.00 0.36 0.21

Shp GP 00001 00001 100 100 100 2.65 1.50 1.05

Shp HAW 00006 00004 67% 100 100 1.98 1.78 1.16

Shp HOL 00001 00000 00% 00% 100 0.00 0.00 1.30

Shp HST 00009 00000 00% 33% 33% 0.00 0.65 0.57

Shp LS 00002 00001 50% 50% 100 1.33 0.90 1.48

Shp MNR 00005 00000 00% 00% 40% 0.00 0.00 0.63

Shp MTH 00002 00001 50% 100 100 1.08 4.68 3.10

Shp NP 00037 00006 16% 24% 38% 0.55 0.44 0.55

Shp OP 00008 00002 25% 50% 75% 0.43 0.75 0.96

Shp PEN 00007 00002 29% 29% 29% 1.26 0.49 0.44

Shp PLN 00003 00002 67% 67% 67% 2.98 1.13 0.88

Shp PM 00009 00002 22% 33% 44% 0.78 0.55 0.60

Shp PRM 00010 00000 00% 10% 30% 0.00 1.15 0.84

Shp RP 00003 00000 00% 00% 33% 0.00 0.00 0.70

Shp SR 00001 00001 100 100 100 4.90 3.80 1.80

Shp TAM 00005 00000 00% 40% 80% 0.00 0.54 1.11

Shp TP 00003 00001 33% 33% 67% 2.60 0.68 1.38

Shp TUP 00082 00021 26% 48% 66% 1.01 1.09 1.07

Shp WRD 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp WO 00019 00004 21% 32% 63% 0.83 0.76 1.41

[skw12354]

I checked the results and although it didn't work out this time, it is a tool that you should use within the total overview. You can't use it alone though. It is a tool. With that said, you ran first and the 3rd horse was 12-1. Steven's horse ran poorly and I did not see the race so I have no clue as to why.
Do remember that while you can consider this at Santa Anita and other major venues, it works best at lesser tracks where the jockey colony is less talented therefore the difference in talent from leading rider to just a rider in greater.
As for Gary Stevens, he is riding like a kid right now. He is old enough to realize that this window will only be open for a short while. I do not know him at all having only met him once and that was ages ago. I can tell you that he is a completely different guy now, more mature about the reality's of life for sure. The Chris Antley ordeal put a lot of things in perspective for him I am sure. He really gets it now and I am always glad to see him do well.
Best of luck and let me know if I can help. Happy to do so.

I just think I need to look a little more closely at other factors too, such as the horse's post position as opposed to where he might prefer to be. If I remember right, Gary Steven's horse had a post towards the inside, and it looked like he might have had better results more to the outside. Maybe. I'm going to try my luck Saturday on the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga using that strategy, and I'll see how that works. I'm also going to wager more at lesser tracks too, where I can factor the jockeys in more. It really does seem that the jockey's skills are more of a factor at these tracks. Thanks!

[wildrides]

Hey, STR, how does track bias come in when you're handicapping. Do you consider it to be one of the top things you try to figure out. A couple weeks ago I was looking at a track and all "e" type horses won each and every race. Then the next day they didn't hold up. So does track bias change up daily?

[str]

Typical ones I see off the top of my head,

-North Dakota
-Marquis Downs
-Fonner Park
-Northlands Park
-Canterbury
-Tampa

Jake was kind enough to post a list of shippers for your track. What you should do is to analyze each track as to the quality of horse that is shipping in while at the same time watching how these various tracks horses perform. That should help identify which tracks send horses that are maybe the same claiming price but are simply better than those that have competed at your home track OR maybe the track in question is worse in quality than your home track.

So , where you are playing , the bottom is always the bottom, 2500 I think. But your bottom horses might be superior to PRN's bottom horses. Same goes with maidens. PRN is 0 for 10 winning with ship ins. Where they bad slow maidens or bottom horses? If so, there is your answer for that track. That is what you want to figure out. Once you know which track has better bottom horses and maidens than you OR worse bottom horses and maidens, things will become clearer.
I hope that helps. Feel free to keep me posted.

[str]

@ Assiniboia where a horse made it's previous start
since 7/25/12

w/p/s %s and w/p/s ROIs/1.00


Shp Unlisted 00082 00007 09% 22% 32% 0.60 0.73 0.65

Shp ASD 02701 00390 14% 29% 44% 0.72 0.75 0.76

Shp BEU 00001 00000 00% 100 100 0.00 4.15 2.60

Shp CBY 00032 00004 13% 28% 41% 0.85 1.25 0.99

Shp CLS 00005 00000 00% 00% 20% 0.00 0.00 0.72

Shp CNL 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp CRC 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp DED 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp DMR 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp ELP 00001 00000 00% 100 100 0.00 1.20 1.05

Shp EMD 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp FE 00005 00002 40% 80% 80% 3.50 2.98 2.01

Shp FG 00005 00000 00% 20% 20% 0.00 0.40 0.38

Shp FON 00022 00003 14% 32% 41% 0.41 0.79 0.61

Shp GG 00008 00000 00% 13% 13% 0.00 0.36 0.21

Shp GP 00001 00001 100 100 100 2.65 1.50 1.05

Shp HAW 00006 00004 67% 100 100 1.98 1.78 1.16

Shp HOL 00001 00000 00% 00% 100 0.00 0.00 1.30

Shp HST 00009 00000 00% 33% 33% 0.00 0.65 0.57

Shp LS 00002 00001 50% 50% 100 1.33 0.90 1.48

Shp MNR 00005 00000 00% 00% 40% 0.00 0.00 0.63

Shp MTH 00002 00001 50% 100 100 1.08 4.68 3.10

Shp NP 00037 00006 16% 24% 38% 0.55 0.44 0.55

Shp OP 00008 00002 25% 50% 75% 0.43 0.75 0.96

Shp PEN 00007 00002 29% 29% 29% 1.26 0.49 0.44

Shp PLN 00003 00002 67% 67% 67% 2.98 1.13 0.88

Shp PM 00009 00002 22% 33% 44% 0.78 0.55 0.60

Shp PRM 00010 00000 00% 10% 30% 0.00 1.15 0.84

Shp RP 00003 00000 00% 00% 33% 0.00 0.00 0.70

Shp SR 00001 00001 100 100 100 4.90 3.80 1.80

Shp TAM 00005 00000 00% 40% 80% 0.00 0.54 1.11

Shp TP 00003 00001 33% 33% 67% 2.60 0.68 1.38

Shp TUP 00082 00021 26% 48% 66% 1.01 1.09 1.07

Shp WRD 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp WO 00019 00004 21% 32% 63% 0.83 0.76 1.41

Thanks Jake.

Always a pleasure to hear from you.

[str]

I just think I need to look a little more closely at other factors too, such as the horse's post position as opposed to where he might prefer to be. If I remember right, Gary Steven's horse had a post towards the inside, and it looked like he might have had better results more to the outside. Maybe. I'm going to try my luck Saturday on the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga using that strategy, and I'll see how that works. I'm also going to wager more at lesser tracks too, where I can factor the jockeys in more. It really does seem that the jockey's skills are more of a factor at these tracks. Thanks!

Post position is certainly a factor when a horse has speed or needs an early position but if the horse is a closer, it doesn't make any difference because they will settle back and in many cases be wherever they want to be.
Saratoga's jockey colony is super strong. A great place to wager. Just a super meet. I am hopeful I can look at the Saturday card at Saratoga as well. Haven't been able to yet but I will try to.

As for lesser tracks, try and find one you become comfortable with. Learning who's who won't take as long as you think. Follow up if necessary.

[cutchemist42]

@ Assiniboia where a horse made it's previous start
since 7/25/12

w/p/s %s and w/p/s ROIs/1.00


Shp Unlisted 00082 00007 09% 22% 32% 0.60 0.73 0.65

Shp ASD 02701 00390 14% 29% 44% 0.72 0.75 0.76

Shp BEU 00001 00000 00% 100 100 0.00 4.15 2.60

Shp CBY 00032 00004 13% 28% 41% 0.85 1.25 0.99

Shp CLS 00005 00000 00% 00% 20% 0.00 0.00 0.72

Shp CNL 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp CRC 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp DED 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp DMR 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp ELP 00001 00000 00% 100 100 0.00 1.20 1.05

Shp EMD 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp FE 00005 00002 40% 80% 80% 3.50 2.98 2.01

Shp FG 00005 00000 00% 20% 20% 0.00 0.40 0.38

Shp FON 00022 00003 14% 32% 41% 0.41 0.79 0.61

Shp GG 00008 00000 00% 13% 13% 0.00 0.36 0.21

Shp GP 00001 00001 100 100 100 2.65 1.50 1.05

Shp HAW 00006 00004 67% 100 100 1.98 1.78 1.16

Shp HOL 00001 00000 00% 00% 100 0.00 0.00 1.30

Shp HST 00009 00000 00% 33% 33% 0.00 0.65 0.57

Shp LS 00002 00001 50% 50% 100 1.33 0.90 1.48

Shp MNR 00005 00000 00% 00% 40% 0.00 0.00 0.63

Shp MTH 00002 00001 50% 100 100 1.08 4.68 3.10

Shp NP 00037 00006 16% 24% 38% 0.55 0.44 0.55

Shp OP 00008 00002 25% 50% 75% 0.43 0.75 0.96

Shp PEN 00007 00002 29% 29% 29% 1.26 0.49 0.44

Shp PLN 00003 00002 67% 67% 67% 2.98 1.13 0.88

Shp PM 00009 00002 22% 33% 44% 0.78 0.55 0.60

Shp PRM 00010 00000 00% 10% 30% 0.00 1.15 0.84

Shp RP 00003 00000 00% 00% 33% 0.00 0.00 0.70

Shp SR 00001 00001 100 100 100 4.90 3.80 1.80

Shp TAM 00005 00000 00% 40% 80% 0.00 0.54 1.11

Shp TP 00003 00001 33% 33% 67% 2.60 0.68 1.38

Shp TUP 00082 00021 26% 48% 66% 1.01 1.09 1.07

Shp WRD 00001 00000 00% 00% 00% 0.00 0.00 0.00

Shp WO 00019 00004 21% 32% 63% 0.83 0.76 1.41

I'm just curious where this was pulled from??

[chaka]

wouldnt put much thought into shippers from north dakota... fargo horsepark season was 3 days last weekend. work kept me from going for the live races and $1 pounders but the quality of races is poor with small fields to boot

[sandyw123]

Post position is certainly a factor when a horse has speed or needs an early position but if the horse is a closer, it doesn't make any difference because they will settle back and in many cases be wherever they want to be.
Saratoga's jockey colony is super strong. A great place to wager. Just a super meet. I am hopeful I can look at the Saturday card at Saratoga as well. Haven't been able to yet but I will try to.

As for lesser tracks, try and find one you become comfortable with. Learning who's who won't take as long as you think. Follow up if necessary.

I actually had a little luck with Indiana Downs. I need to experiment with other tracks too. My best luck by far has been with Belmont. Saratoga may be worth a try. Is there any similarity between the Saratoga and Belmont tracks (other than the jockeys)?

[JakeLc]

I'm just curious where this was pulled from??

from my database

[str]

Hey, STR, how does track bias come in when you're handicapping. Do you consider it to be one of the top things you try to figure out. A couple weeks ago I was looking at a track and all "e" type horses won each and every race. Then the next day they didn't hold up. So does track bias change up daily?

Sorry this took several days. Crazy busy .

Yes I do make it a top priority. Quite frankly, I hope there is no bias. It really does stop your prior handicapping in its tracks.

When you go through the card you must assume that the track will be fair, unless that particular track is rarely fair. So too me, playing a typically fair track is important.

The difficulty is spotting it early and more importantly, being sure what you saw. What I mean is, a horse that figures goes wire to wire in the 1st and the favorite goes to the front in the 2nd and wins. Most people would figure it is a great rail and or speed bias. That could be totally an illusion OR absolutely correct. What you need to watch for is not always the winner, which is what everybody sees, but the not so talented horse that was on the rail the entire trip , never made the lead although it tried to, and still finished 3rd behind the speed. That horse probably should have backed up and been nowhere, but didn't. Then see if the closer that was a 2nd or 3rd choice was in the 3-4 path the whole race but never fired. If those 2 things took place, it is probably a rail and maybe a speed bias. Conversely, if an inferior inside speed horse gets slightly outrun early by a superior speed horse to it's outside, therefore not getting a good early trip, but still turns the tables on the outside horse and draws away while the horse that closes the best of the field runs up the rail and no horse outside does much ( and some figured to do so) ,that would be a great rail in the makings.
No one race can ice a bias in my mind unless I witness the absurd. You need to see it at least twice in a row in the 1st two races on the card. Biases do not show up in the middle of the card unless they are weather related.
Biases are created by human error, necessity to combat impending weather, very high wind, rain and even a major holiday that effects the track employees not being around to protect the track from the elements or amount of races that will be run over the track before the people are back to work.
Some biases are only the 1st race of the day, especially in the summer when the track has been graded, rolled, watered multiple times and is very tight. Once the 1st race runs and it is harrowed, and therefore loosened up a bit, it is more of a fair surface.
Lastly, don't force a bias call. I see soooo many people stating bias, bias, bias these days. It's the trendy thing to say and if you speak to it, well, it makes you look smart in some peoples eyes, so people have a tendency to want to talk about it, especially writers and the talking heads on TV. Don't lean on them for advice. It won't take too much effort to be on a par with a lot of those folks. Some are quite good, but more are full of it IMO.

What was your type "e" horse that won every race? If it indeed did not hold up the next day, was the day you saw it the 1st day back after a dark day? Or was heavy rain in the forecast? I assume it was speed with those questions. If it was all outside closers was it the last day before a dark day?
Let me know those questions and the track in question and I will be glad to follow up with some advice on how to understand why it took place, and more importantly, will it take place again in the same situation.
Let me know, and I hope I have made at least some sense of this.

[str]

wouldnt put much thought into shippers from north dakota... fargo horsepark season was 3 days last weekend. work kept me from going for the live races and $1 pounders but the quality of races is poor with small fields to boot

This is a very good point. Only 3 days means everyone shipped in . So where they shipped from to run there would help unlock any mystery.

[str]

I actually had a little luck with Indiana Downs. I need to experiment with other tracks too. My best luck by far has been with Belmont. Saratoga may be worth a try. Is there any similarity between the Saratoga and Belmont tracks (other than the jockeys)?

They are probably the best two meets of the year. I won't speak to Delmar but there is no doubt that certain trainers point some of their horses to be at there best at Saratoga. And it makes perfect sense. If I am wanting to have owners give me money to buy yearlings each year, I want to show off what I can do at Saratoga, where anyone with solid money to put into yearlings is watching. It is a showcase for trainers looking to gather clientele.
Following certain trainers patterns for that meet is a solid angle to look for.

For anyone who follows this thread closely, you know that one of my best friends trains at Saratoga each year. If you don't know who he is, it is in here. I expect that he will have a very solid meet with 2 year olds this year up there as well as into the fall and next spring. He had a real solid year last year at the sales. Do keep an eye on his babies and for that matter, all his horses up there. He does not run anything up there that doesn't merit consideration.

[harthebar]

hey str,
how have you been...real busy summer, went to the Haskell yesterday .fun time.....took some great pictures .thought you would enjoy..........go to the thread best bet of the day......or follow up ..I posted there ....you can really see the difference in a great horse.

[mrginandtonic]

Good Morning Sir,

I have a question regarding Oxbow in the Haskell Invitation. I was wondering why a trainer such as Lukas would give Oxbow only one workout from the time he finished the Belmont till last Sunday. And that workout was early July, it just seems strange to me that a horse who gets regular workouts leading to a race, then this time he has nothing for two weeks. What is reasoning behind that?? (I hope that this question wasn't asked before, if it has, I apologize in advance.)

[str]

Good Morning Sir,

I have a question regarding Oxbow in the Haskell Invitation. I was wondering why a trainer such as Lukas would give Oxbow only one workout from the time he finished the Belmont till last Sunday. And that workout was early July, it just seems strange to me that a horse who gets regular workouts leading to a race, then this time he has nothing for two weeks. What is reasoning behind that?? (I hope that this question wasn't asked before, if it has, I apologize in advance.)

Great question Mr G and T.

While I can not say for sure , I noticed that as well when it was reported that the horse was jogging the wrong way every morning the last few days before the race.
My thoughts in no particular order:

The Haskell is by invitation only. It would be a political nightmare to accept an invite and pull out a week before unless the horse was sore or unable to run. He was not at all that way, but, you can bet that something had Wayne's attention after that one workout. Maybe the horse did not finish up in that work like he normally would. Maybe he started leaving some grain when normally he would eat up. I am sure that it was not a soundness problem. It was subtle IMO. Maybe no spark coming off the track after training. Maybe that ankle had a little filling but x-rayed clean and he was sound on it , but it carried a little heat and Wayne wanted time to work on it. (That would be perfectly acceptable by the way). Whatever, the exact case, it was something along those lines in all probability. It could be any of those things but certainly something caught Wayne's eye. Having gone through the ringer in the triple crown races as well as leading up to them, Wayne tried to "back off" a little and maybe give the horse some energy. Fitness was certainly not a problem . So I think that he was just trying to fine tune by giving the horse an AM break without giving the horse a PM break like Shug has chosen to do with Orb.
There are soooo many decisions that have to be made and back in the day, it seemed kind of rare to have a triple crown horse that ran in all 3 legs run again in July. Billy Turner caught all sorts of heat for running Slew back that fast when he lost in the Swaps but do know that the decision was ALL the owners. Billy was dead against running.
So the thing to do is to closely monitor any horse that ran in all 3 legs as to where they finish if they run back in July. No matter the price , I would bet that more than 1/2 of them lose. Remember what we talked about in the early spring where certain races are nice to win but the main objective either just passed or is on the horizon. Well, that's where we are now with those triple crown horses. It would be wonderful if they can win the Haskell, Travers, whatever but not as wonderful as it would be to win the Classic. For a horse like Verrazano, it was just the opposite. He regrouped after a disappointing Derby and his next out was key to getting back to where he hoped to be. Todd's sites where on nothing but the Haskell. Without running big in it, the horse was an afterthought for the Classic. Now, after that monster performance, the thought process changes in a blink. Todd has to be thinking, it would be great to win the Travers but.... the Classic would be the bomb. Meanwhile, for Oxbow, his next race is key to being able to run in the Classic. You can bet that he will have several typical works for his next race and Wayne will mean business wherever he runs. Hopefully the wrenched ankle is not more than that. Time will tell but if he is back jogging in a week , he will probably be OK.

Oh how quickly the view can change in this game.

[mrginandtonic]

Tks so much for the input. At this point, my guess for running is most likely owners decision. If so, wonder how they feel feel about that wrenched ankle now?!

[str]

Tks so much for the input. At this point, my guess for running is most likely owners decision. If so, wonder how they feel feel about that wrenched ankle now?!

It would make sense that the owners wanted to push forward. But if Wayne can't control them, who can?

But... because we do not know the future plans of this horse, we can only speculate.

Maybe he is going to retire after his 3 year old year. Who knows. Without knowing more detail, it's hard to say.

Have not seen any reports as to Oxbow training yet but it's early. He would have gotten 3 days off anyway in all probability.

[str]

hey str,
how have you been...real busy summer, went to the Haskell yesterday .fun time.....took some great pictures .thought you would enjoy..........go to the thread best bet of the day......or follow up ..I posted there ....you can really see the difference in a great horse.

Great pics Har ! Some very nice horses in that group. I have a lot of fond memories in and around the Monmouth paddock. What a great place to race for the summer. Thanks for sharing.

[str]

They are probably the best two meets of the year. I won't speak to Delmar but there is no doubt that certain trainers point some of their horses to be at there best at Saratoga. And it makes perfect sense. If I am wanting to have owners give me money to buy yearlings each year, I want to show off what I can do at Saratoga, where anyone with solid money to put into yearlings is watching. It is a showcase for trainers looking to gather clientele.
Following certain trainers patterns for that meet is a solid angle to look for.

For anyone who follows this thread closely, you know that one of my best friends trains at Saratoga each year. If you don't know who he is, it is in here. I expect that he will have a very solid meet with 2 year olds this year up there as well as into the fall and next spring. He had a real solid year last year at the sales. Do keep an eye on his babies and for that matter, all his horses up there. He does not run anything up there that doesn't merit consideration.

I hope this helped if you are following Saratoga today.

[JBEX]

Hey str

Can an expensive first time starter (say 250k) who runs
first time out for a 50k tag be well meant... can a trainer
really tell before a horse hits the track that it's not going
to live up to its high price tag.. If that horse does win.
impressively was it a mistake to risk losing it for 50k or
whatever the claiming tag was?

[str]

Hey str

Can an expensive first time starter (say 250k) who runs
first time out for a 50k tag be well meant... can a trainer
really tell before a horse hits the track that it's not going
to live up to its high price tag.. If that horse does win.
impressively was it a mistake to risk losing it for 50k or
whatever the claiming tag was?

Hi JBEX,

Short answers.

1. Yes.
2. Yes. 90+% of the time.
3. No it was not a mistake unless of course the horse is claimed and ends up being worth more. In that case, it surely was.

Longer explanation:

Let me 1st assume that the horse in question is a colt/gelding and is at least 3 if not 4 years old. I can't imagine why someone would run a 2 year old in a race like that in August, after paying that 250K as a yearling or later. If it was a filly, the pedigree would probably have her worth that as a broodmare I would assume but I have to say , I've seen some that went for 250K that were simply unable to explain. Not many though.
So... assuming this is a 3 year old, this horse either has a bowed tendon or from a pedigree that suggests that the chips already removed from it's knees will reoccur if not already. That does not mean that the horse can't win 1st out. Sure it can. But it's long term availability to run is suspect without breaks in the 6 -9 month range or worse.

If the horse is a 4 year old, colt or gelding, the horse has probably had problems but even more so, the horse probably just can't run in the morning to the level that it will take to win a MSW. The real value of maidens running for 50k is about 25-30K tops. Kind of depends on exactly where though. If this is a 4 year old, they have tried everything to have the horse show talent and it has not worked, however, winning for maiden 50K isn't all that, so even if they have marginal talent, winning is not out of the equation.

Either way, from a betting perspective, I would not pay full attention to the sale cost( unless this is a 2 year old) ( be shocked if it was). If it is a 2 year old, I would not play the horse. But 3 or older, I would look at the horse in the paddock or warming up. Is the horse fat? If so, the horse is too sore to put the type of pressure on it's legs to get fit enough to win. Next question is, who is the trainer. Does the trainer have a solid record with firsters? Big key there. Is the race long or short? Short, Hmmm, in a scary way. Long, the horse is slow and can't beat anyone in the morning and it's so slow that it's only chance to win will be with slower fractions, thus they run it long.



Can you post the firsters form ? And track it's entered? That would help. I have just enough info to be dangerous so far.
Give me a little more including the jockey and workout patterns and I think we can solve this mystery.

Hope this helps.

[JBEX]

Thanks for the great answer str.. I was not referring to a specific
horse and just making up an example. A general understanding
of this situation is sufficient for me and feel I have it now.,

One other handicapping angle I use in maidens I'd like your feedback
on... If for example a horse cost 200k at auction and is by a 10k stallion
and the dam was 0/3 and this is her first foal to race can I assume that
this horse must be a physical specimen for them to have spent this much
at auction? Guess only other reasons would be success further back in the
female family or a quick work at the sales??

[chaka]

This is a little long but for someone fairly new to horse racing like myself it was pretty interesting to see the various shoeing methods and seeing pictures of the real injuries (& treatments)trainers have to work with to get the horses sound again

[str]

Thanks for the great answer str.. I was not referring to a specific
horse and just making up an example. A general understanding
of this situation is sufficient for me and feel I have it now.,

One other handicapping angle I use in maidens I'd like your feedback
on... If for example a horse cost 200k at auction and is by a 10k stallion
and the dam was 0/3 and this is her first foal to race can I assume that
this horse must be a physical specimen for them to have spent this much
at auction? Guess only other reasons would be success further back in the
female family or a quick work at the sales??

Don't get to wrapped up in the dam being 0-3 racing. In more cases than not, with the dam, it's all about bloodlines and what the dam was made to be. Many a really nice horse came out of a mare that under achieved or just could not run, as a race horse. What almost all of them have in common though is they were decently bred and for whatever reason, they just could not put it together.

Other than that, yes, the horse is probably an excellent specimen conformation wise and of course, was well touted by those that watched the horse when turned out in the field with others. If the horse has already been broken ( can be ridden) the horse is probably an excellent mover. If the horse was sold at the Ocala March 2 year old sale, it probably had a blistering 1/8th or 1/4 mile workout . Yes, being a 1/2 sibling or full can also pump up the price obviously.

Hope that helps enough.Let me know.

Very astute question. You must really enjoy betting the babies. I do, and it does have it's rewards doesn't it.

[JBEX]

Enjoy betting maiden races. Used to buy the Maiden Stats
from BRIS in the late 90's but decided that was more than
I wanted to know. It gave really specific information on the
dam like whether she was a stakes winner, did her progeny
win as a 2yo,best sibling, average winning distance. Also gave
information on the sire but a little vague on the specifics on
that. Back then this stuff wasn't written about in the drf and
like it is now in the "closer look" next to the horses past per-
formances. They give extremely detailed information now in
the drf especially for the Saratoga meet.

Generally like to bet firsters with average steady works with
early win tendencies from the dam like she won early or as
a fts or the same information for the siblings or full or half
siblings to the dam. An average to above average sire's a plus
along with a trainer who is at least average at it. Obviously no
value betting Todd Pletcher but you can see why he wins so often
with the kind of 2yo's he regularly gets to train

I read about the idea (forget where) of playing maidens that seem
expensive relative to the stallions stud fee, what the dam did or in
these cases didn't do on the track and with no siblings who did anything
special or first foal to race.. They don't come up all that often but I'm
usually on them when they do. While I don't keep records I'm sure it et
is a profitable angle over time

[JBEX]

Also a I would highly recommend "Sire Ratings" which is put
out by Progressive Handicapping on a yearly basis. Believe it
costs about $40 and gives sire information relative to factors
like class, fts, distance, surface, age bias all based on stallion
statistics that he manipulates to come up with the ratings

[Timmay]

Who does everyone like this weekend?

[str]

This is a little long but for someone fairly new to horse racing like myself it was pretty interesting to see the various shoeing methods and seeing pictures of the real injuries (& treatments)trainers have to work with to get the horses sound again

So I watched about 15 minutes of this and I will eventually get through it all but ...

OH MY ! I'll Have Another had thrush in both front feet so bad it takes months to get out as a two year old?

UNBELIEVABLE !!

Thrush is caused from not properly cleaning, packing, drying, and maintaining the horses feet.

Guess it's unfair to point fingers without knowing the whole story but to the person responsible, whoever that is, that is disgraceful.

On a lighter note, I always kept the detailed info myself. I met with the farrier at least every other day and we went over every horse. The old adage " No feet, no horse" is very true.

[str]

Also a I would highly recommend "Sire Ratings" which is put
out by Progressive Handicapping on a yearly basis. Believe it
costs about $40 and gives sire information relative to factors
like class, fts, distance, surface, age bias all based on stallion
statistics that he manipulates to come up with the ratings

So much info out there these days. Without a doubt, knowing the scoop on the dam is worth its weight in gold when it comes to firsters. Some mares that won 1st time, go on to throw babies that follow that pattern. When you identify a mare and her offspring that have won 1st time, when subsequent siblings show up 1st time, and in the hands of a trainer that gets it done with firsters, it is a very solid betting proposition, as you know well .

[str]

Enjoy betting maiden races. Used to buy the Maiden Stats
from BRIS in the late 90's but decided that was more than
I wanted to know. It gave really specific information on the
dam like whether she was a stakes winner, did her progeny
win as a 2yo,best sibling, average winning distance. Also gave
information on the sire but a little vague on the specifics on
that. Back then this stuff wasn't written about in the drf and
like it is now in the "closer look" next to the horses past per-
formances. They give extremely detailed information now in
the drf especially for the Saratoga meet.

Generally like to bet firsters with average steady works with
early win tendencies from the dam like she won early or as
a fts or the same information for the siblings or full or half
siblings to the dam. An average to above average sire's a plus
along with a trainer who is at least average at it. Obviously no
value betting Todd Pletcher but you can see why he wins so often
with the kind of 2yo's he regularly gets to train

I read about the idea (forget where) of playing maidens that seem
expensive relative to the stallions stud fee, what the dam did or in
these cases didn't do on the track and with no siblings who did anything
special or first foal to race.. They don't come up all that often but I'm
usually on them when they do. While I don't keep records I'm sure it et
is a profitable angle over time

Sorry, I meant to post the last response with this .

[cutchemist42]

Any opinion on how to view class drops that look suspicious? Say, from Clm15000 to Clm5000 after losing your last race by a length or closer? Is this the trainer trying to grab a quick purse?

[str]

Any opinion on how to view class drops that look suspicious? Say, from Clm15000 to Clm5000 after losing your last race by a length or closer? Is this the trainer trying to grab a quick purse?

Now and then, yes, but mostly no. Here is what you need to do :

I could go all into this topic from a trainers point of view but for you, the bettor, all that matters is will the horse run well today? Happy to do so if someone is interested, just let me know, but let's go with the " from the bettors point of view" for now.

Some claiming trainers, usually with larger stables, will routinely do this and if they do, not all of the horses are actually that bad off physically. Many reasons for this. Others, and I would venture to say the majority of trainers, rarely do this, and in most cases, the horse does have a problem that in time will need time off to heel. And because time is money, with no guarantee of ever coming back to prior form, they opt for the claiming price + the 60% of the purse if they win. Most figure that if they don't win, they were well sold.

So rule # 1 is :Get to know the trainers tendencies. Most all trainers have tendencies. King Leatherbury made his living for 40 + years understanding this . The guy was great at reading trainers minds and tendencies. The guy should absolutely be in the Hall of Fame as should other claiming geniuses but, I digress.

Understanding through statistics that I am sure are available these days,( Jake, can you provide everyone with a place to find these? If so, thanks in advance as always.) who excels and who stinks at dropping down certain a type of horse, albeit, a 2 year old, an older horse, etc.will help quite a bit. Also, look at HOW OFTEN, a trainer does this. Bigger outfits might choose to do this for a variety of reasons, none of which have much to do with the actual soundness of the horse. Smaller outfits normally rarely do this, unless it is a trend that stats will show is a tendency. If a small trainer does this and has a solid record of winning doing so, that is a huge positive for you.

What to look for on the track:

Fronts "ON" is huge. It is a BIG negative if this is the case. Of course, if the stats show a trainer has a high success rate, don't pay attention to the fronts. That trainer might very well have those fronts on just to deter other trainers from claiming the horse. ( Remember, it is a game within a game for claiming trainers. Nothing they are doing has to do with betting that day believe it or not. It has everything to do with possibly getting a horses confidence back,( See Kindest Cut Video within this thread), or, having 4 horses for the same exact race and distance and trying to alleviate a log jam within the barn and condition book, or, trying to get a horse eligible for starter handicap races by running for a certain price. The list goes on and on but again, I digress.

Has the regular rider been taken off and a bug boy put on. Careful there. Bugs are more apt to let a choppy type horse run while the older vet might not. Not to say the horse is lame, but... maybe the horse is hitting the ground harder than it was a month or two ago.

Don't look to hard at the workout pattern or lack of works for answers. Maybe at the top tracks and even then, not with much conviction IMO but certainly not at any secondary tracks. It will mislead you the majority of the time.

Has the horse been scratched at the gate recently? If so, question answered that the horse is not right, but will it win today? Hard to say, so again, trust the trainers pattern and those stats.

Did the horse run for 15K at a major track and now runs for 5K at Penn. Nat with a trainer and owner change? That one is not so bad, because if the horse was sold, and a new owner has bought it, they probably only paid 5K for it or less or "on the cuff" meaning they will pay a % of what the horse earns in the future, up to a certain number of races. But... who sells a 15K horse for 5K? Better question is who buys damaged goods unless they feel the horse has several races left in it? Again, follow the stats of that new trainer and trust them.

If you can see them warm up, are they short and choppy striding of stretching out. Stretching out is good, choppy is not. Are they all wet and anxious? Not a very good sign unless that is who they are. ( It never hurt Seattle Slew did it?) Are they reluctant to load? Another negative. A little late for a bet or not this time by then, but certainly something to consider if there is a next time.

Big drop and blinkers on or off ? This speaks in almost all cases to the horses lack of effort or poor demeanor NOT to the soundness in most cases.

The bottom line is, because there are sooo many negatives to betting these types and typically the odds are very low, why not try and beat them? My advise would be, go ahead and try beating them. I would not bet a ton, but I would always try unless the stats told me not to. If they told me not to, that does not mean I would bet on them either. Might be a good race to pass or chase in pick 3s without the drop down on the ticket, especially if you have opinions on the other races involved. Just be sure and make the ticket to be a small loss or a very big gain. In the long run, it will work out just fine.

Hope that helps. If I missed anything, please feel free to follow up on any particular instance or situation.