[mrginandtonic]

Great call Mr. G an T.

I just have to meet you as well as others within this forum someday.

Very well done .

Thank you sir! That was how i envisioned it for the derby as well. I knew Gary Stevens rode the race before the derby wrong and he knew it as well. But no one thought that Palace Malice would set that crazy splits. Of all the early speed in the derby, Oxbow was the only the stuck around. He was also bred to go the distance and take an off track. Those were the main reasons that I stuck with Oxbow. Unfortunately, I had too much respect for Orb, otherwise I woulda made a killing today. All in all, a plus for the day which I will take it any day. Just too bad that we don't have a triple crown again this year.

[mrginandtonic]

Yep gl...I just don't want to see Goldencents steal it.Something about D Oneill just irritates me.

And, yes, Oneill irritates the chit out of me too, also his jock Krigger. Can't stand them.

[aland]

Question for the gurus - How do you find exotic payouts without cashing a ticket? For example - If one were to pick the winner of the Black-Eyed Susan and Preakness what would it pay?

How do you figure winnings at home - with your tickets?

[str]

Question for the gurus - How do you find exotic payouts without cashing a ticket? For example - If one were to pick the winner of the Black-Eyed Susan and Preakness what would it pay?

How do you figure winnings at home - with your tickets?

You have to look around for those type of payouts. They are always posted at some point at the track you are playing , in this case, Pimlico.
I do not know if they had that Daily Double this year or not, but I saw in JoeyP's thread that he had posted the Pimlico Special- Preakness Daily Double payouts .

I copied them for you. They are below.

nt BALTIMORE - With 3-5 favorite Last Gunfighter taking Friday’s Grade 3, $300,000 Pimlico Special, here are the will pays for a $2 ticket in the Pimlico Special-Preakness double.
There was $694,983 wagered in the pool.
Last Gunfighter (No. 7) with:
1. Orb $5.80
2. Goldencents $49.40
3. Titletown Five $344.40
4. Departing $55.20
5. Mylute $75.00
6. Oxbow $100.80
7. Will Take Charge $60.20
8. Govenor Charlie $60.20
9. Itsmyluckyday $45.40



If you watch the feed of the racetrack you are playing from home, it is the same feed that you see when you watch a simulcast. Those type payouts as well as exacta probable payouts before the race and current odds, are always posted.

Google live feeds for your particular track and you have a good chance of locating them.

Here is Maryland's.

Hope that helps.

http://www.livestream.com/marylandracing

[str]

Louisville Kid , I owe you a response and you will get it soon. Really busy at work these days.

Also want to recap the Preakness. I saw several things that are noteworthy. I might not be able to do that at most tracks but I know Pimlico like the back of my hand. Spent too many years there and I will share with you guys/gals as soon as I have some time.

[str]

Whenever you get a chance str,

Down the road I'd love to invest some money in small % ownership in some horses. How does one go about getting into this game, and how much money would I need. What's you're advice to someone with these interests? Im 28 now, So I'm talking about maybe 10 years down the road, but I was just curious to hear you're thoughts and this possible endeavor...

Thanks

Owners have gotten very savvy and creative in the last 10 years or so with putting together partnerships and forming syndicates. Some of these can be very reasonable price wise. Others however can be unfair to the investor.
You have to do your homework, just like with any investment . It's never too early to educate yourself on this subject. Now, several years before doing so, might be the perfect time to look around. The internet will provide you with plenty of info as well as blood-horse magazine as well as others. Next time you visit the track with live racing, go to the information desk usually located near the main clubhouse entrance and ask them where the horseman's office is located ( HBPA, Horseman's Benevolent Protection Assoc.) or in Maryland it's the MTHA, (Md. Thoroughbred Horseman's assoc.). Whatever . It is a place where they probably have magazines, and some literature on ownership. Talk to the person working there and tell them what you are thinking of doing. They should be able to point you in the direction of plenty of info and research.
Many syndicates form on a yearly or bi yearly basis. They often times purchase yearlings or two year olds and work within that type of model for a two year period. Those can be fun, with the dream of a good horse, but I want you to be careful if that route is the one you choose. You should try and find one that has money within the purchase price for ALL bills, like vet, shipping, etc. already structured within it. You should avoid future out of pocket expenses if at all possible.
As fun as those might be, sadly, there are a lot of crooks within those types of syndicates, just like any other business. You REALLY need to be careful Kid. I would be happy to help you figure all this out if you need help.
I assume you live near Louisville. That may be way off. But if you do, there is no substitute for being near the track you have a % interest in and seeing the horses first hand, in the morning, with your trainer, or partners. This is the ultimate experience for a person that loves the game. I would look hard in that direction if it is possible.
If you were able to afford one horse at a time, with say two or three other guys, and claim horses, that is also a great way to get involved. Not as much action, but you don't need to have horses running all the time if you have access to the backside in the AM and the races in the PM. I had many an owner that did it that way and loved it.
You will need to only use money that you consider disposable income. Not that you can't make money, but just like betting games, if you really need it, it seems tougher to win than if you just relax and enjoy it and let it happen. You can estimate vet bills, per diem costs, shipping , etc. prior to claiming the horse so there are no surprises once in it. All that requires is finding an honest trainer to work with. That might be a tall order for most, but you have me, and you can bet your ass I will tell you the proper questions to ask. Because I already know the honest as well as the dishonest answers, it won't be that hard at all. That along with still knowing plenty of people in the game at certain tracks, I will make sure you find a good, honest, trainer. There are plenty of them out there although public perception seems to say otherwise sometimes. And sometimes I can't blame the public for that.
It's like a wise old groom Mr. Berry said when I was green as grass and a hot walker. The games on the level, it some of the people in it that aren't . Lol.
Keep me posted Kid, I think that if you decide to do it, you will be real glad you did.

[str]

A couple of thoughts about the Preakness

Orb: There is no doubt in my mind that Orb was mentally bothered by his trip. As he went down the backside he was fine and he found himself in a traffic jam. His rider was very aware of the slow time being set, thus what some might consider as the early move. It really wasn't an early move, he was there easily. And honestly I do not think that his mental melt down had as much to do with Goldencents on his outside as it did Titletown Five on his inside. It seemed to me that he might have been OK but when Titletown rushed up inside at roughly the 5/8s mile pole, Orb began to get out of sync. It took him another 10 seconds to really lose focus and basically drop the bit. So from roughly the 1/2 mile pole to the 3/8s pole, he had lost his interest in competing. I say that because by the 3/8s pole he had become clear enough to engage the race but still had not. By the 1/4 pole, as he turned for home, he was back in the game mentally and as the rider hit him hard left handed, he took off. Problem was, he was too far back and with the slow pace, he was just not going to make the ground up this time. From the 1/4 pole to the wire he ran fine.
It was not what people want to call a bounce because he was firing at will down the backside until about the 5/8s pole and he fired hard through the lane. A bounce would have had him running flat throughout and that was not what he showed me. I do not think that being on the inside part of the track helped him at all. The outside was clearly better all day and Friday as well, but I don't think it was by any means the sole reason he got beat.

Oxbow: Stevens rode a masterpiece. He stayed off the fence, walked the dog, and brought him home. He owes an assist to the kid on Goldencents for being so worried about keeping his horse clear of dirt and relaxed that he forgot to consider the fact that they were walking. That's not a knock on that young jock, or maybe just a small one. You can't expect a rookie to go out there and compete with Hall of Famers and not forget something. That's just the way it is. He will learn from that and be a better rider for it. When any trainer brings a young or inexperienced rider to a triple crown race, they better accept the fact that they are probably in for a schooling. O'Neill got away with it last year but this year it bit him. Had he run in the Belmont last year, that could have gotten ugly around the 1/2 mile pole, but.. we will never know for sure.

Mylute: This horse looks like the winner almost every time he turns for home. Then, he hangs. He has a lot of talent but man does he hang from the 1/8th pole. Great horse to use 2nd and 3rd only .

Itsmyluckyday: I was glad to see him run well. I did not know what I had missed a few weeks ago as I really thought he had a big chance along with Orb to win the Derby. In my mind the slop should have been his friend that day but I saw a quote from his connections saying he did not like the slop at Churchill at all. He did like it in Florida. That is true, that a horse can like an off track at one track but not handle it at another. It's not the norm, but it is certainly true. I would venture to say that if he ran on 10 sloppy tracks he would probably like 9 of them but he did not want any parts of Churchill. File that away for a possible Breeders Cup race later if it comes up muddy and they run it at Churchill.

The surface: I spent many a year at Pimlico , every spring for about 27 years. I became aware of biases back in 1978 although it took me several more years to fully understand them. I could count on one hand the guys that I knew where aware of them, and none were trainers, they were gamblers. (There could have been plenty more but I did not know of them and I was not advertising what I knew back then.) In all those years since, I do not recall ever seeing Pimlico as an outside speed track. Not once! I remember seeing it outside and heavily favoring closers, and that was rare for Pimlico, but not outside period, meaning it favored speed ,closers, and basically every horse outside. I can't tell you why it happened. My days of staying after the last race and watching the grader or seeing what the maintenance crew was going to do are long gone. But it was indeed present. did it get Orb beat? I don't think so. Did it help Oxbow win? Absolutely, along with a great ride and help from the other jocks that allowed Stevens to do what he did.
Because the track was uncharacteristically deep it was also somewhat slow. Not terribly slow however. I saw where writers were struggling with the Beyer numbers for the Preakness and wondering why the times were slow. Try not to get too wrapped up in all that. Andy needs to justify his numbers after every marques race. If he doesn't his numbers might lose credibility. This is what irritates me about those numbers so much. They do not take into consideration that on event days like the Preakness, the track can sit idle for almost 2 hours if a race or races are run on the turf. Sun and/or wind can alter the surface from early in the card vs. later in the card. The moisture content in the sand will change and that means the sand itself will change. They don't run on a surface that stays perfectly consistent all the time. It is constantly changing. The other thing to remember is that the jockeys are trying to win the race, not run against a clock. They don't care how fast the race goes. They only care about trying to win it. So when Stevens walks the dog and crawls around to the 3/8s pole, the race is not going to have a flashy final time in most cases. The time is not what this years Preakness was all about. Too me, it was about Orb's trip and Stevens walking the dog.
Just another reason I would pay no attention to Beyers.

[cutchemist42]

Soon the very first page you suggested paying attention to what kind of race conditions exist. Why does it matter?

Thanks, I love the thread!

First of all, READ AND UNDERSTAND THE CONDITIONS of the race.This is so important ! Is it an open claimer , nw/2, nw/3, nw/ last 6 months. Condition allowance, starter handicap, etc. For more clarity, go to the racing secretary's office at your track and ask someone for a current condition book.They are free and probably sitting out for trainers to pick up. They come out every 2-3 weeks. This book will tell you what races are scheduled for days to come. You will start to understand how the races are written.

[str]

Soon the very first page you suggested paying attention to what kind of race conditions exist. Why does it matter?

Thanks, I love the thread!

First of all, READ AND UNDERSTAND THE CONDITIONS of the race.This is so important ! Is it an open claimer , nw/2, nw/3, nw/ last 6 months. Condition allowance, starter handicap, etc. For more clarity, go to the racing secretary's office at your track and ask someone for a current condition book.They are free and probably sitting out for trainers to pick up. They come out every 2-3 weeks. This book will tell you what races are scheduled for days to come. You will start to understand how the races are written.

In many cases, the conditions of the race restrict certain horses from participating, such as a non winners of 3 races lifetime. When you
look through the entries there very well could be 2 or 3 of the 9 horses entered that have not won the non winners of 2 yet. This happens when the racing office needs to fill the race with enough entries to make it part of that days card , and /or when the trainer needs to run the horse and there is no n/w of 2 available at the time. If those horses have been beaten in n/w of 2 and can't win that class, they have a minimal chance in a n/w of 3 where most of the horses have already won the n/w of 2. Same thing goes with "a" other than, 2 other than, 3 other than allowance races as well as n/w in 6 months races. You might see a horse that won 6 months and a day ago running against horses that have not won in over a year. That does not automatically mean a certain horse will win, but it is a pretty good indicator as a starting point when you put the race together.
Another key is " state bred" races. If you have a bunch of state breds that can't win in that category albeit maidens or allowance, and a horse that has been running in open company steps into a state bred race, in almost all cases, the open races are much tougher. So, that horse , while not dropping down in price, is actually dropping way down in caliber of horses it is competing against.

It only takes 30 seconds to read the conditions of a race before you start to handicap it. So start at the top, look at the configuration of the distance of the race( like a 1 mile race at Monmouth is 2 turns but a 1 mile race at Belmont is 1 turn, a night and day difference), then read the conditions, and start handicapping. Over time, you will be very glad you did.

Hope that helps.

[cutchemist42]

In many cases, the conditions of the race restrict certain horses from participating, such as a non winners of 3 races lifetime. When you
look through the entries there very well could be 2 or 3 of the 9 horses entered that have not won the non winners of 2 yet. This happens when the racing office needs to fill the race with enough entries to make it part of that days card , and /or when the trainer needs to run the horse and there is no n/w of 2 available at the time. If those horses have been beaten in n/w of 2 and can't win that class, they have a minimal chance in a n/w of 3 where most of the horses have already won the n/w of 2. Same thing goes with "a" other than, 2 other than, 3 other than allowance races as well as n/w in 6 months races. You might see a horse that won 6 months and a day ago running against horses that have not won in over a year. That does not automatically mean a certain horse will win, but it is a pretty good indicator as a starting point when you put the race together.
Another key is " state bred" races. If you have a bunch of state breds that can't win in that category albeit maidens or allowance, and a horse that has been running in open company steps into a state bred race, in almost all cases, the open races are much tougher. So, that horse , while not dropping down in price, is actually dropping way down in caliber of horses it is competing against.

It only takes 30 seconds to read the conditions of a race before you start to handicap it. So start at the top, look at the configuration of the distance of the race( like a 1 mile race at Monmouth is 2 turns but a 1 mile race at Belmont is 1 turn, a night and day difference), then read the conditions, and start handicapping. Over time, you will be very glad you did.

Hope that helps.

Thank you very much!

I've been loving this sport ever since my first live race here in Winnipeg 3 weeks ago. Just came back from Vancouver and loved the Hastings course even more.

[cutchemist42]

I actually had another kind of broad question. Layoffs from racing be it a horse's first race of the year or in 30/50/etc. days. How should these be viewed?

[str]

I actually had another kind of broad question. Layoffs from racing be it a horse's first race of the year or in 30/50/etc. days. How should these be viewed?

The racing form has % stats for the trainer with various times off these days. Before they did, there was a TON of value if you kept such stats. I did, but it was more for claiming than for gambling( although it came in handy for a bet every now and then when I had time to pay attention to it for betting).
With those trainer stats, it has become much more predictable. Certain horses also enjoy running fresh. If the horse has had multiple trainers, also see how the horse did off time with other trainers ( make sure to know those other trainers % off time as well). Sometimes it's the horse more so than the trainer ( maybe 30%). This is especially true in the 30,60 day off category. It's almost the norm these days. Unless a horses pp's or the trainers % can sway me, I almost always view 1st time in a year as a negative, the lone exception being a turf horse that was put away when the turf season ended. Because the turf season is short, most trainers have a turf horse very prepared for it's 1st start on grass no matter the distance up to a mile 1/8th. Further than that, it takes a special horse AND trainer.

Good question. I hope I answered it well enough.

[cutchemist42]

What is meant by speed and closer?

[str]

What is meant by speed and closer?

Within this thread are multiple answers to this question with different flairs. I know the thread it is very long but I would suggest that you skim through the parts that don't pertain and find those that do. It should really help. Write down the thread #'s as some are more complex than others. Once you get through them you can cross reference those #'s and find probably all the answers you need on this subject. Please let me know if you don't. With that said:

Simply put, a speed horse goes to the front. A closer comes from behind.

The horse in my avatar was a speed horse going 2 turns. There is a video in here that explains it and many responses that further explain it.

Horses run varying styles, they don't just all line up and go full out from the start. Wander through and if you can't find enough to help you understand, I will be happy to help further.

[cutchemist42]

Within this thread are multiple answers to this question with different flairs. I know the thread it is very long but I would suggest that you skim through the parts that don't pertain and find those that do. It should really help. Write down the thread #'s as some are more complex than others. Once you get through them you can cross reference those #'s and find probably all the answers you need on this subject. Please let me know if you don't. With that said:

Simply put, a speed horse goes to the front. A closer comes from behind.

The horse in my avatar was a speed horse going 2 turns. There is a video in here that explains it and many responses that further explain it.

Horses run varying styles, they don't just all line up and go full out from the start. Wander through and if you can't find enough to help you understand, I will be happy to help further.

So the horses's style, is that something that's trained or does the horse just have a natural tendency? And how do you personally find out? Video watching? Asking around?

[str]

So the horses's style, is that something that's trained or does the horse just have a natural tendency? And how do you personally find out? Video watching? Asking around?

It is mostly a natural tendency.

For horses that have not yet raced, it is their breeding in most cases. They typically fall in line somewhat with the way their sires ran as to style or preferable distances. Once they have established their own form, you can see the past races that they have run both in the racing form as well as video's and determine their individual likes and dislikes.

[harthebar]

just seeing how you been ..no questions , other ....everything good with you, finished house last week, you helped me out with your wisdom, my handyman skills did improve ,,,,im not afraid of electricity as much as I was I learned to make a home run ....and some other wiring, ....but I still respect it ......lol

[ericc]

A speed vs. closers bias is very tricky and can be caused by a multitude of things. Typically, harder surfaces will favor speed while dry and cuppy surfaces will favor closers. So many different factors can effect a speed bias that it is real hard to pinpoint exactly what it is.
As for Santa Anita, it has long favored speed to some degree, be it a little or a lot. It seemed to be very speed ( or rail) favoring the 1st week but hopefully that will settle back to only somewhat speed favoring ,as usual, in time. In that type of scenario, speed will do very well , no matter where they are positioned on the track, like Ruler On Ice.
So if speed stays longer than it should, especially when duels stay , it is a speed bias. If the inside horses run well from all positions and all the outside trip horses falter, speed and others, it is a rail. Same works in reverse for outside bias or closers bias.
Hope that makes sense.

Is the length of the stretch or the length into the first turn a factor in the "speed vs. closer" bias?

[firsttimewinner]

Hi Str, takes for the advice, I read the first few pages and found it very informative. I also went to drf.com and checked out the beginner videos and those were informative as well. My questions for you are, I'd like to try and build a small bankroll ie. 1000 dollars and try to grind out a higher bank roll through many races what % of my bankroll should I wager on each race. I live in Southern California right near Los Al with Del Mar and Santa Anita in driving distance and I will stick with those tracks as my main. Is it worth buying the drf pp for the day's races? I know you've given out a lot of tips about betting, but what about the mindset of wagering? How long or how much of a loss should I take before I consider that I don't have what it takes to do handicapping horse racing? Thanks in advanced.

[str]

just seeing how you been ..no questions , other ....everything good with you, finished house last week, you helped me out with your wisdom, my handyman skills did improve ,,,,im not afraid of electricity as much as I was I learned to make a home run ....and some other wiring, ....but I still respect it ......lol

I have been very busy building a very large and high end home. All new construction. It's been great but a lot of work. I sub it all out but I oversee everything. Just like training in that respect. So yes, everything is good with me thanks.

Glad you finished working on your house and glad I could help what little I did. Just for the record, I will never trust electricity Lol. I leave that to others. Learning to home run is a nice step. Congrats and thanks for checking in.

[str]

Is the length of the stretch or the length into the first turn a factor in the "speed vs. closer" bias?

Hi Eric,

This answer will have to fall under the category of opinion, not fact. This could well be a great debate amongst players. I posed this question to myself when I was a groom after spending my 1st full summer at Monmouth Park. It really intrigued me. At first, I decided that the answer to that question was yes, but that was in the mid 70's and I had not yet discovered biases. I amended that thought after years of studying why tracks favored certain styles, sometimes very often ( Calif.) and to a lesser extent but still quite speed favoring Monmouth Park, at least back then,not sure about today, and sometimes day to day, ( Md. tracks and many others but when I was first doing this, just Md. tracks).

Monmouth Parks length of stretch was just under 1,000 ft. as were S.A. and Hollywood. So, it seemed reasonable that the shorter length had much to do with it. I am sure plenty of people feel that way today, and maybe they are right, but I do not. Here is why.

Spending virtually my whole career in Md. other than summers or shipping, it was well known that Pimlico was extremely speed favoring back in the 70's and for a time after the tunnel to the infield was constructed near the 3/16's pole. I have spoken about that in this thread, ( really need an index don't we). Pimlico's stretch is 1,152 ft. long. Laurel, which has never been known as a speed track has a length of stretch that is 1,089 ft. long. So why is it that the longer stretch serves speed better than the shorter stretch? The day I realized that was the day I realized that IMO it had little if anything to do with the length of stretch, it was three things. The make up of the dirt and base,( which back in the 70's was night and day. It is more consistent today but there is still more clay at Laurel than Pimlico. It is the natural soil make up at each track that is different as well as the elevation difference, Laurel being one of the lowest spots for miles around and Pimlico being high up( Old Hilltop, right?) ) and the mind set of the riders and trainers. Those two went a long way. But the key ingredient as to why Laurel could change by the day, and after they fixed the tunnel area at Pimlico, it too could change day to day, as well as other venues, was the track maintenance, that is, cushion depth and days they graded the track. Once I figured that out, and again, it is spoken too at length in this thread, I could predict the bias ahead of time on many days. Never always though. So my answer is no, but I wanted everyone to understand why, thus the explanation.

The run to the 1st turn is one of my favorite tools as a handicapper when I get a chance to do so. It is a huge advantage at a mile track to have a short run to the 1st turn , be an inside post, and have speed. Too me, it is all about the makeup of the rest of the field and the 1st 1/4 mile of the race. If the 1 or 2 has solid early speed and can make a lead with minimal effort on a short run to the 1st turn, there chances go WAY up that they will control the tempo of the race and be right there at the finish. That in itself does not create a bias, it falls under the category of a race that shapes up very well for a certain horse that day. If the track is even, (no bias whatsoever), you might as well just give the lone speed with the inside post and short run to the 1st turn(at a mile track or larger) a 2-3 length head start. IMO it means that much. From that point on, it's ALL about the pace of the race. Mix in a solid front end rider at a typical track where the riders are not ALL extremely talented, and you have a real advantage. I would always try and identify pace and solo speed, but when you have the added advantage of inside and a short run to the 1st turn, that is a players dream trip. 24 and change and a 1/2 in 49-50 and in most cases you can start walking to the window at that point providing the other ingredients I spoke to are in place ( jockey, solo, even track, etc.)

Hope that helps.

Very intriguing question.

[JMUplayer]

Anyone a member of any racing partnerships on the east coast?

[str]

Hi Str, takes for the advice, I read the first few pages and found it very informative. I also went to drf.com and checked out the beginner videos and those were informative as well. My questions for you are, I'd like to try and build a small bankroll ie. 1000 dollars and try to grind out a higher bank roll through many races what % of my bankroll should I wager on each race. I live in Southern California right near Los Al with Del Mar and Santa Anita in driving distance and I will stick with those tracks as my main. Is it worth buying the drf pp for the day's races? I know you've given out a lot of tips about betting, but what about the mindset of wagering? How long or how much of a loss should I take before I consider that I don't have what it takes to do handicapping horse racing? Thanks in advanced.

I would never consider betting without the DRF. There are several forms of this these days and honestly I do not know as much about them as many others in this sub forum do. For me it has always been the classic PP's. There are a lot of people in this sub forum that are really great. Very helpful and more up to date than I am about the other styles of the form. Classic's work great for me, so yes, buy a form.

As for a bankroll, being new to the game, I would go very slowly and not bet much early. Like most things, there is a learning curve within handicapping. Also like most things, you will ultimately get out of it what you put into it. In time, the harder you work, the luckier you will get. Sticking with Calif. racing is probably a wise move.

Lastly, if you enjoy the game and are eager to learn, you already have what it takes to be good handicapper in time. Just stay the course, and be willing to learn everyday. Follow some other threads and players in this forum. The "post best bets or follow ups" thread is a good one. Pretty much follow the players in that forum as to there approach or thought process of how they bet or see things and see what they are thinking from day to day. And feel free to ask away if you don't understand something. You don't have to bet what they say unless you agree, but learning how they are approaching certain races and what they are seeing will help. Try your best to avoid favorites. Instead of going for the fav, piece the race together and see if that fav. is vulnerable. Sometimes that will be hard but betting favs regularly is death valley. If it was that easy, everyone would be winning instead of whining. Also, it's ok to pass a race you have spent time on. Hard to believe but I have seen pro gamblers spend all day at the races and not make a bet. Don't feel that you HAVE to bet every race. You don't.
Bet small until you get more comfortable with the game , then increase slowly. Understand that you will be soooooo much smarter about the game this time next year if you follow it. Nothing wrong with 2,4, and 5 dollar bets in the beginning. The key in the beginning is not winning money. It is not getting hurt while learning. Do keep track of wins and loses. Don't be someone that looks up and swears they are probably even when they are not really close to that. Keeping daily logs of + or - an amount only takes 30 seconds. Do yourself a favor and do that from day one. You will be just fine soon enough.


Best of Luck.

[robmpink]

Hands down one of the top 5 informative threads in the history of sbr!

[sandyw123]

I have a question about the jockeys? Is it a positive sign when a horse is switched to a high percent jockey? And does that mean that the jockey accepts riding that particular horse because he thinks the horse can win?

[str]

Anyone a member of any racing partnerships on the east coast?

We used to have a poster named WTT0315 who was part of a syndicate that owned the champion filly Turbulent Descent amongst others. He really enjoyed it so it seemed, as well he should. He was a heck of a nice guy and a quality poster, as are a lot of the racing forum people. He was banned last winter when all the stuff about a book closing shop went down. Real shame as he and others no longer here really contributed quite a bit.
I am not aware of any others and I currently do not own any although I probably will down the road.

[str]

I have a question about the jockeys? Is it a positive sign when a horse is switched to a high percent jockey? And does that mean that the jockey accepts riding that particular horse because he thinks the horse can win?

The quick answer is yes and yes, although it is the agents responsibility to think the horse can win in a certain spot more so than the rider although the rider might have put forth some input. I will answer more thoroughly tomorrow but wanted to answer today in case it affects a race today. I hope the race has not already run. Sorry about that, crazy busy with a custom house these days.
Talk about it at length tomorrow.

Good luck!

[str]

I have a question about the jockeys? Is it a positive sign when a horse is switched to a high percent jockey? And does that mean that the jockey accepts riding that particular horse because he thinks the horse can win?

The short answer was yes but because there are so many circumstances within that question, I need to explain at least somewhat. If it's a stakes race, most jocks want to ride and will seek a mount . You can only read so much into that. But... if we are talking an everyday race albeit allowance , claimer, maiden , whatever, here is how it works.

For starters let's look at the jock in question. An older jock probably does not want to ride every race. It's just too physically demanding. They might say to there agent that they only want to ride 5-6 a day, especially in the heat or cold if that comes into play. So if this is an older jock you are referring to, the yes I answered is a stronger yes like, YES !!

It is the agents job to try and make that happen. It is also the agents job to keep as many trainers and owners happy as possible. It is a balancing act with some political overtones in some cases. Kind of depends on the trainer's stance in regards to letting a certain rider pick and choose. My take was to try and keep the riders as happy as I could. Many jocks but by no means all, can be prima donna's if they are the leading rider. Too me, if you kept them happy, you usually got a solid effort associated with a team work concept. If you draw a hard line, and plenty of trainers will do that, the relationship can sour and it shows in subtle ways over a period of time . That hard stance blew up in many a trainers AND jocks face over the years. I witnessed plenty and like I said, I decided to kill em with kindness. Worked well for me.
In Maryland, guys like Ramon, Edgar, Kent, etc. rode the card everyday or darn near it. Young , gun ho ,wanting to climb the ladder type attitudes worked very well for each of them. What they did was try and ride for everyone. In doing so, most trainers would actively seek there services when they were spotting there horse in a what seemed like a perfect spot.
For instance, I run a maiden 25,000 six times and he runs a bad 4th or an ok 5th or 6th every time and I decide I want to win a race so I am thinking about running back for 14,500. I have been riding a jock that has been say the 7th -10th leading rider or worse each race. I approach Kent's, Edgars, Ramon's agent,( but remember, they were there one at a time pretty much , not all three there at the same time, so each was dominate in there own time frame. Yes, some overlapped but not in dominance) and tell them I plan on running for 14,500. The agent, if they are worth a damn,( Steve R. , Edgars and Ramon's agent was terrific) should immediately know my horse and realize I would be 2-1 without him and even money with him. Unless he has already committed to another horse for a guy he rides a lot for, he should be open to ride my horse, especially with plenty of notice. If he does have a call and it is just on a mediocre horse, he can usually get released by the other trainer to ride mine. If he can't , the rider will probably get pissed and that is the keep em happy deal I was talking about. Therefore, the high % jock ends up on a low % trainers horse( not that I was,Lol).
So you can see that a low % trainer that does not typically get the services of the leading rider can indeed get the jock, but the horse needs to be in a good spot. In many cases a low % trainer is indeed low % because they do not run their horses where they should be running. Fear of losing the horse via the claim box keeps many trainers broke. I never understood that but that is the way it is with those trainers.
Another factor is that a low % trainer dropping a horse down with the leading rider is probably dropping down to win NOT because of a problem the horse might be developing. You are not going to ask for the high % jock and put him on a limper. No way! So chances are, they are sound , ready to run well and in most cases they do very well.
The jockey accepts the mount because he knows he can win in that spot although the entries have not yet been drawn but barring another surprise entrant, he , along with his agent have determined that the horse should run very well in that spot.

This theory will hold true certainly at minor tracks and medium tracks. When you are in NY or Calif. the difference in talent lessens so the dramatic difference in quality of rider is not as great but should still be part of the discussion.
Understanding a particular high % riders tendencies of who they ride for typically and who they don't is very helpful. That , along with a bunch of other reasons is why I have always said you should pay close attention to just one, two or three tracks. That is not to say that you can't look at more tracks in certain situations but these players that stand in front of the TV at the track and bet 5 different tracks using the program junk type form that only goes back 5 races is very unfortunate to witness. Quite frankly, they might as well just play Keno or some other terrible play. They have NO CHANCE in the long run.

I hope I have answered well enough for you. If you need more explanation, fire away but do include the track or tracks that you are talking about so I can speak more specifically.

Great question !

Let's cash some tickets!

[ericc]

What is the best way to analyze pace? [if this has already been addressed could you give me an approximate time and or date to go back and search the thread?]

[str]

What is the best way to analyze pace? [if this has already been addressed could you give me an approximate time and or date to go back and search the thread?]

I know I have spoken on this subject many, many times. It is without a doubt the single most important factor in handicapping a race IMO. Because each race sets up differently, understanding it is a key ingredient when looking at a race.

This thread is really big and I did go back and find some answers that matched this question but after about 350, I started to see double. So be sure and read # 3, 101, 104, 172, 277, 322 for starters. I might have missed a few in between. You then take the next 350 and you will be 2/3s of the way through. Please post them and we can start out index with pace questions.
Those should help quite a bit.

Feel free to follow up.

[ericc]

Thanks str. I went back to look at the posts you suggested regarding pace. I put the following up in quotes for your reference and because it gets into what I am trying to fine out. I have a few questions that I will ask after the quote. [it is kind of long]

First things first... Thank you for the kind words in the previous post. It is great that you and hopefully some of the others are having a better understanding of the game.

Speed , stalk, close:
Here is the more complex answer: You identify the PURE speed first. That is horses that can only run one way.

Then, identify horses that would enjoy being the speed but have shown you that they can lay off a few( 1-3) lengths. With these horses, make sure that before accepting that each horse can actually do this , they have proven it to you. By that I mean they have had a non perfect trip and been able to accomplish it. Any horse with some ability can lay third to a duel outside and no horse ever close to it's outside eye and run well. Although getting a great right eye clear / left alone trip is not the fault of the horse it is certainly NOT of equal merit to the horse that sat off while in between horses with it's right eye covered up by the outside horse down the backside, then was able to move when asked to get clear of the outside pressure and secure a nice trip from that point on. One horse inherits a great trip and the other horse EARNS the nice trip from the 3/8s pole home. That is a night and day difference. Now, the horse that gets a great trip might be able to also accomplish dealing with a tougher trip, and there is no way to know this if they have not had to previously. More won't than will , so scrutinize the trip if possible.

Next is mid pack runners. These horses seem to always find themselves right in the middle of the field. In 10 horse fields , they would usually be 5-6 . There should only be few of these , even in the Derby. Problem with these horses is in the Derby, they will be probably laying 6th-12th depending on how much speed is in the race. If they do not have the ability to fire whenever the jockey needs them and the pedigree to have the stamina required, they will fail. Some of these horses might give you a hint from previous races but some will not and for those types, a good amount of guess work will be required.

Next is typical closers. They consistently close for each race from near the rear. Most of these types are horses that have learned at an early age to relax. These are typically horses( not always) that have been pointed towards the Derby for the last 6-8 months at least. The most viable of these are horses that have been able to show some ability to either be closer or move sooner depending on how the race shapes up.

Last is the deep closers. They get to the rear of the pack no matter how many are in the race and no matter how slow or fast the fractions are. Simply put, they like to come from last.

So the answer is 5 categories if you are working on a race like the Derby(18-20 horses).
If not such a cluttered group and for most races , 4 categories. Eliminate the mid pack group and move them forward or back depending on what they have showed. This is simply because it is damn near impossible to figure out which 10-12 stalkers will be where. By using a 5th category, it helps split that large group for hopefully more clarity. At least it has for me.

Again, for 99% of the races, use 4 categories.

Do not think that the deep closer category must have a horse in it. Some years it just does not. It takes time to develop running habits and styles and some years by Derby time, no horse has developed that style yet. Usually by Classic time or certainly when the horse turns 4, that style will usually have started to develop if it is going to. Remember, that style is not always developed by choice . Sometimes it is developed by a horse being weak behind ( a slight muscle soreness or weak hind end muscles, maybe a confirmation flaw, but a muscle tightness or a lack of muscle, that needs to get moving and get in to motion to loosen up. One of many reasons that you might see certain horses warming up more than others. Jogging will help the shoulders where jogging and then galloping quite a bit, will help the hind end. When horses have a stiffness in one area they will sometimes over compensate , thus creating a new stiffness or soreness somewhere else, but now I am rambling.
Anyway, with these categories, you should be able to identify where most horses will plan to be if things go right. And because in the Derby, things might not go right, you need to have identified those that have created there own good fortune during not so perfect circumstances if you can.
Also , remember that the Derby gets very strung out , so the lengths off the pace will most times be many more for all the horses than what they were accustomed too. That's O.K. though because they all have to deal with it at the same time. This goes back to earning a trip instead of inheriting one. Chances are, in the Derby, it will need to be earned.
The other problem with the Derby is that if most of the horses have run 5-6 times, many have not found there true comfort spot yet. Sure, the speed has, and the deep closers have but for many it is a work in progress. That is what makes it so great and of course, very profitable if you can figure it out.
Again, just for the Derby type events, I try to eliminate somewhat by category instead of bunching 20 together and picking a few. If I can find a solid few horses that have overcome tougher trips, or finished faster through doing math within fractions than others, or something like that, I think it goes a long way.

When looking at the PPs how many lengths determines each category? :
I never went by lengths other than just off the lead. Pace of each race as well as surface , speed of various tracks, where and when the timer starts at each track( Pimlico 6F virtually no run up, Monmouth 6F a big run up, for instance), etc. can skew that too much. I went by a general overview of each PP taking speed , surface, and what I just mentioned in to account. Start with each horses most recent win or best effort and work around that. Also, following the Derby trail will allow you to know from closely monitoring the races along the way that, for instance, the Florida Derby had a ton of speed, while the Wood had solo speed and the pace setter walked the dog so laying 3rd with a first quarter in 24 1/5 is not near the same as laying 3rd in the Fountain of Youth in 22 4/5. It might seem like that would take forever, but it really takes about a minute per horse to categorize as long as you understand and have followed the races leading up to it.
With the Derby being such a unique race, so much work can go into one race and then some faint hearted horse gets a perfect trip and it seems like it is all for naught. That's how it will be some years, but I will tell you this. You do this for the months leading up to the Derby and you will be so much better off than if you don't. Why? Because you will have force fed yourself the breaking down of a bunch of races and began to understand how to do it. In the long run( 8 months from now) you will be able to look at some typical everyday races and start to be able to see things that you never saw before. At that point, having a firm grasp on how 2 or 3 races on a card will probably play out will allow you to skip or bet drastically less on the others. Because ordinary races during any given card consist of horses that have run many more times and at the same track or distance much more often than the Derby horses had, the entire challenge of breaking down a race can only become easier than the most complex race each year in which we try to figure everything out with horses that have never run at the distance that we are trying too decipher. All this will make you a smarter handicapper, better at money management, and most of all , you will have developed an understanding of what is actually taking place on the track instead of just following the pack around the track hoping your numbers come in and not knowing why they did or did not. Don't get me wrong, some people just want to bet a few bucks and if they win, great. If not, oh well. That is fine, but if you really want to understand the game, doing what you are doing is a huge step in the right direction.
Great question. Keep me posted.

You mention that there are 3 styles; Speed, Stalk, and Close.
Then you mention that there is a 4 category and a 5 category.
Is there 2 speed features (pure speed and earned speed), a stalk feature and 2 closer features (typical closer and deep closer) for the 5 category type?
Then with the 4 type are there 2 speed, 1 stalk and 1 close features?
Or, are you eliminating the mid-pack into 2 speed and 2 close?
Also, could you give a little more detail in moving the mid-pack horses forward and backward?

[str]

Thanks str. I went back to look at the posts you suggested regarding pace. I put the following up in quotes for your reference and because it gets into what I am trying to fine out. I have a few questions that I will ask after the quote. [it is kind of long]


You mention that there are 3 styles; Speed, Stalk, and Close.
Then you mention that there is a 4 category and a 5 category.
Is there 2 speed features (pure speed and earned speed), a stalk feature and 2 closer features (typical closer and deep closer) for the 5 category type?
Then with the 4 type are there 2 speed, 1 stalk and 1 close features?
Or, are you eliminating the mid-pack into 2 speed and 2 close?
Also, could you give a little more detail in moving the mid-pack horses forward and backward?

Sorry for the delayed response.

With 5 categories, which I feel is only needed in races like the Derby with 20 horse or maybe the Classic if it has 14 horses, you have it correct, that is, 2 speed features, one pure and one , a horse that WANTS to be in front but has shown the ability to run very well if it is outrun early ( not just with a perfect trip), one stalk, and closer and deep closer.

With the 4 type , I would let the particular race drive that decision. In a 9 horse race for instance, if there is one horse that ALWAYS comes from last, no matter the size of the field, you know where that horse is going to be already, so don't worry about it. Incorporate that horse into a closer and concentrate more on the pure speed, and tactical early speed. In many cases, THAT is where the race winner will be determined depending on those horses actions. If they chase the pure speed hard, the pace will be in favor of one of the closers and will lend a hand to that deep , lay last early horse we talked about. If they choose to sit just off until the 3 1/2 pole and then start to try and engage, they have probably allowed the pure speed to set more practical fractions, thus giving the pure speed and themselves the best chance to finish. That very well could have greatly compromised the chances for the horse sitting last early and might have affected the chances of the other closers as well. It all depends on the pace , and by that I mean the 1st 1/4 time and the 1/2 mile time ( the first two fractions posted on the board).
I would never eliminate the mid pack. Those types CAN overcome pace more readily than the horses behind them, so always take them into account.
I would not move the mid pack types forward or back. Only in huge fields where there position can fluctuate because of the amount of horses. What I mean is, if 5 horses all want to lay 5th, somebody is going to be laying 9th , like it or not, in those large fields. That will not happen in most typical 9 or 10 horse or less fields.

Bottom line: Find the speed, stalk and closers. Then find the speed of the speed either by what the horse demands or it will not compete, or by the post position with a short run to the 1st turn ( remember, an outside horse must be able to outrun an inside horse by at least a length and a 1/2 minimum before it can cut in front of the inside horse. So if the outside horse is only marginally faster in the 1st 1/4, chances are it will not be able to clear the inside speed in that short run to the 1st turn without catching a flyer( breaking exactly in sync with the doors opening, in most cases, luck, or having the inside speed break just OK at best, again, luck) or using more energy than typically which usually comes back to haunt them turning for home.

So for most races of nine horse fields or less, speed , stalk, and close is all you really need. Call it 3 or 4 categories because you will dive into the speed category and further break it down anyway. Three categories really become 4 categories by the time you finish the race anyway. Stalks are typically horses that will never be any closer early than say 3 lengths and probably more like 4 or 5 lengths. Closers will be at least 5 lengths and probably 6-8 lengths back. The speed can have many faces, pure one dimensional only , those that really prefer the lead but CAN lay just off but only with the box or a perfect trip, and those that can overcome some adversity up near the lead ( those types are kind of rare and almost too good to be true).

Once you have determined who is who, put the race together and try and figure out how the race unfolds. Take into consideration the track bias , if any, the jocks and there tendencies and strengths, especially at lesser venues, the horses wants and needs and there you have it. When it's as easy as 7 speeds and one closer, play the closer, seven closers and one speed, play the speed. Two raw speeds, one that is happy to sit 3rd, and 5 that will be at least several lengths of the 3rd horse, sign me up for the horse that lays 3rd, by itself, behind a duel.

If you sit the race out, try and pick the winner at the 1/2 mile pole, that is, after a 1/4 of a mile of a 6 F race or at the 5/8ths pole, that is, half way down the backside of a 2 turn race. This is a great way to start to understand trips. What you will see is the horse that lays 3rd to a duel by themselves, or , the horse that lays 5th behind 2 separate duels of the first two and then,the 3rd and 4th horse, and that horse laying 5th is free of any horse within a length or two from all sides, especially it's right eye, that horse laying 3rd alone or 5th alone stalking duels will run big every time. No matter the odds. If they do not, unless a drastic change occurs, or it was drastically affected by something that day , that horse is has very little, if any, ability. Sometimes just watching TVG or whatever and getting multiple feeds so you have a race to watch every couple of minutes will sharply enhance your understanding of duels, pace, and horses position as well as that right eye I always talk about. That exercise is a GREAT tool to seeing things you never noticed before.

Hope that makes sense.

[cutchemist42]

Sorry for the delayed response.

With 5 categories, which I feel is only needed in races like the Derby with 20 horse or maybe the Classic if it has 14 horses, you have it correct, that is, 2 speed features, one pure and one , a horse that WANTS to be in front but has shown the ability to run very well if it is outrun early ( not just with a perfect trip), one stalk, and closer and deep closer.

With the 4 type , I would let the particular race drive that decision. In a 9 horse race for instance, if there is one horse that ALWAYS comes from last, no matter the size of the field, you know where that horse is going to be already, so don't worry about it. Incorporate that horse into a closer and concentrate more on the pure speed, and tactical early speed. In many cases, THAT is where the race winner will be determined depending on those horses actions. If they chase the pure speed hard, the pace will be in favor of one of the closers and will lend a hand to that deep , lay last early horse we talked about. If they choose to sit just off until the 3 1/2 pole and then start to try and engage, they have probably allowed the pure speed to set more practical fractions, thus giving the pure speed and themselves the best chance to finish. That very well could have greatly compromised the chances for the horse sitting last early and might have affected the chances of the other closers as well. It all depends on the pace , and by that I mean the 1st 1/4 time and the 1/2 mile time ( the first two fractions posted on the board).
I would never eliminate the mid pack. Those types CAN overcome pace more readily than the horses behind them, so always take them into account.
I would not move the mid pack types forward or back. Only in huge fields where there position can fluctuate because of the amount of horses. What I mean is, if 5 horses all want to lay 5th, somebody is going to be laying 9th , like it or not, in those large fields. That will not happen in most typical 9 or 10 horse or less fields.

Bottom line: Find the speed, stalk and closers. Then find the speed of the speed either by what the horse demands or it will not compete, or by the post position with a short run to the 1st turn ( remember, an outside horse must be able to outrun an inside horse by at least a length and a 1/2 minimum before it can cut in front of the inside horse. So if the outside horse is only marginally faster in the 1st 1/4, chances are it will not be able to clear the inside speed in that short run to the 1st turn without catching a flyer( breaking exactly in sync with the doors opening, in most cases, luck, or having the inside speed break just OK at best, again, luck) or using more energy than typically which usually comes back to haunt them turning for home.

So for most races of nine horse fields or less, speed , stalk, and close is all you really need. Call it 3 or 4 categories because you will dive into the speed category and further break it down anyway. Three categories really become 4 categories by the time you finish the race anyway. Stalks are typically horses that will never be any closer early than say 3 lengths and probably more like 4 or 5 lengths. Closers will be at least 5 lengths and probably 6-8 lengths back. The speed can have many faces, pure one dimensional only , those that really prefer the lead but CAN lay just off but only with the box or a perfect trip, and those that can overcome some adversity up near the lead ( those types are kind of rare and almost too good to be true).

Once you have determined who is who, put the race together and try and figure out how the race unfolds. Take into consideration the track bias , if any, the jocks and there tendencies and strengths, especially at lesser venues, the horses wants and needs and there you have it. When it's as easy as 7 speeds and one closer, play the closer, seven closers and one speed, play the speed. Two raw speeds, one that is happy to sit 3rd, and 5 that will be at least several lengths of the 3rd horse, sign me up for the horse that lays 3rd, by itself, behind a duel.

If you sit the race out, try and pick the winner at the 1/2 mile pole, that is, after a 1/4 of a mile of a 6 F race or at the 5/8ths pole, that is, half way down the backside of a 2 turn race. This is a great way to start to understand trips. What you will see is the horse that lays 3rd to a duel by themselves, or , the horse that lays 5th behind 2 separate duels of the first two and then,the 3rd and 4th horse, and that horse laying 5th is free of any horse within a length or two from all sides, especially it's right eye, that horse laying 3rd alone or 5th alone stalking duels will run big every time. No matter the odds. If they do not, unless a drastic change occurs, or it was drastically affected by something that day , that horse is has very little, if any, ability. Sometimes just watching TVG or whatever and getting multiple feeds so you have a race to watch every couple of minutes will sharply enhance your understanding of duels, pace, and horses position as well as that right eye I always talk about. That exercise is a GREAT tool to seeing things you never noticed before.

Hope that makes sense.

I didn't ask the question, but loved the answer. You sir are awesome.

I've been following Assiniboia now for a month, buying the programs and watching on tv after some handicapping. I've noticed some horses coming up from the South. I was just wondering if you could explain the whole shipping process? Why do horses ship or any other interesting things to note.

Thanks!

[skw12354]

The short answer was yes but because there are so many circumstances within that question, I need to explain at least somewhat. If it's a stakes race, most jocks want to ride and will seek a mount . You can only read so much into that. But... if we are talking an everyday race albeit allowance , claimer, maiden , whatever, here is how it works.

For starters let's look at the jock in question. An older jock probably does not want to ride every race. It's just too physically demanding. They might say to there agent that they only want to ride 5-6 a day, especially in the heat or cold if that comes into play. So if this is an older jock you are referring to, the yes I answered is a stronger yes like, YES !!

It is the agents job to try and make that happen. It is also the agents job to keep as many trainers and owners happy as possible. It is a balancing act with some political overtones in some cases. Kind of depends on the trainer's stance in regards to letting a certain rider pick and choose. My take was to try and keep the riders as happy as I could. Many jocks but by no means all, can be prima donna's if they are the leading rider. Too me, if you kept them happy, you usually got a solid effort associated with a team work concept. If you draw a hard line, and plenty of trainers will do that, the relationship can sour and it shows in subtle ways over a period of time . That hard stance blew up in many a trainers AND jocks face over the years. I witnessed plenty and like I said, I decided to kill em with kindness. Worked well for me.
In Maryland, guys like Ramon, Edgar, Kent, etc. rode the card everyday or darn near it. Young , gun ho ,wanting to climb the ladder type attitudes worked very well for each of them. What they did was try and ride for everyone. In doing so, most trainers would actively seek there services when they were spotting there horse in a what seemed like a perfect spot.
For instance, I run a maiden 25,000 six times and he runs a bad 4th or an ok 5th or 6th every time and I decide I want to win a race so I am thinking about running back for 14,500. I have been riding a jock that has been say the 7th -10th leading rider or worse each race. I approach Kent's, Edgars, Ramon's agent,( but remember, they were there one at a time pretty much , not all three there at the same time, so each was dominate in there own time frame. Yes, some overlapped but not in dominance) and tell them I plan on running for 14,500. The agent, if they are worth a damn,( Steve R. , Edgars and Ramon's agent was terrific) should immediately know my horse and realize I would be 2-1 without him and even money with him. Unless he has already committed to another horse for a guy he rides a lot for, he should be open to ride my horse, especially with plenty of notice. If he does have a call and it is just on a mediocre horse, he can usually get released by the other trainer to ride mine. If he can't , the rider will probably get pissed and that is the keep em happy deal I was talking about. Therefore, the high % jock ends up on a low % trainers horse( not that I was,Lol).
So you can see that a low % trainer that does not typically get the services of the leading rider can indeed get the jock, but the horse needs to be in a good spot. In many cases a low % trainer is indeed low % because they do not run their horses where they should be running. Fear of losing the horse via the claim box keeps many trainers broke. I never understood that but that is the way it is with those trainers.
Another factor is that a low % trainer dropping a horse down with the leading rider is probably dropping down to win NOT because of a problem the horse might be developing. You are not going to ask for the high % jock and put him on a limper. No way! So chances are, they are sound , ready to run well and in most cases they do very well.
The jockey accepts the mount because he knows he can win in that spot although the entries have not yet been drawn but barring another surprise entrant, he , along with his agent have determined that the horse should run very well in that spot.

This theory will hold true certainly at minor tracks and medium tracks. When you are in NY or Calif. the difference in talent lessens so the dramatic difference in quality of rider is not as great but should still be part of the discussion.
Understanding a particular high % riders tendencies of who they ride for typically and who they don't is very helpful. That , along with a bunch of other reasons is why I have always said you should pay close attention to just one, two or three tracks. That is not to say that you can't look at more tracks in certain situations but these players that stand in front of the TV at the track and bet 5 different tracks using the program junk type form that only goes back 5 races is very unfortunate to witness. Quite frankly, they might as well just play Keno or some other terrible play. They have NO CHANCE in the long run.

I hope I have answered well enough for you. If you need more explanation, fire away but do include the track or tracks that you are talking about so I can speak more specifically.

Great question !

Let's cash some tickets!

Thank you! I started not doing well with my wagering recently and felt like I had to be overlooking something (maybe the jockeys). I'm looking more closely at that now. I decided to try my luck today on race 6 at Delmar. Based on the trainers, jockeys, and the consistency of the horses; I'm going with Surfcup (Rafael Bejarano), Pure Loyalty (Gary Stevens), and Brother Pete (Joe Talamo) in a $1 trifecta box. Actually the trainer that Gary Stevens is riding for is not as high % as the other 2; but the horse has been running well, and Gary Stevens just seems to always ride his best (no matter what).

[str]

I didn't ask the question, but loved the answer. You sir are awesome.

I've been following Assiniboia now for a month, buying the programs and watching on tv after some handicapping. I've noticed some horses coming up from the South. I was just wondering if you could explain the whole shipping process? Why do horses ship or any other interesting things to note.

Thanks!

Thank you ! I hope it has helped you see things more clearly.

I had to laugh when I saw you said that the shippers were from the south only because I would assume that there aren't very many from the north side of Assiniboia. I absolutely know what you mean though.
I would have to ask you , where do the shippers typically come from? Or are they from many different tracks?
I ask because there can be several different answers depending on where most of these shippers come from.

When I was training in Md., every winter a couple of outfits would come down from Woodbine and spend a few months. They would both do the same thing each year. They would aggressively enter their claiming horses and they would claim a few in return to replace the ones they lost via the claim box, but they would also actively try and buy horses privately while there more so than claim. After a year or two, I figured it out. They had run there stock hard during the summer while in Canada and where looking to rotate there stock but more importantly, the dollar exchange was in there favor, so, they were picking up 20-25% value in the money they collected via the claim box. Simply put, they were doing better on paper than it might have looked in the racing form. If indeed that imbalance still exists, that could be why you see new blood from American tracks, especially if there is a trainer and owner change involved. That represents an outright sale.
Because your track runs 2,500 claimers and lower levels, when they just are not good enough to compete at Canterbury or Woodbine, going there makes sense. It is really no different than when a horse could no longer compete in NY., they go to Md. or when they can't do it in Md. they go to Charles Town. The lower levels of n/w of 2 ,n/w of 3 are very easily won by shippers dropping down from 5,000 I would assume. Once they win those two though, at least 1/2 of them are probably finished winning. That would be typical.


Under "any other interesting things to note" , Maybe this will help.

Leading Jockeys at Assiniboia Downs Starting Date: 05/05/2013
Ending Date: 07/20/2013

Name	Starts	1st	2nd	3rd	Earnings
Paul M. Nolan	187	42	38	23	$364,610
Jennifer Reid	204	34	36	35	$316,878
Adolfo A. Morales	127	33	14	20	$293,255
Christopher Husbands	196	31	37	36	$358,260
Tyrone Nelson	151	23	24	16	$232,527
Trevor Simpson	152	22	16	22	$193,825
Adrian B. Ramos	120	19	17	12	$178,540
Renaldo Cumberbatch	85	13	12	10	$94,664
Tori Gandia	124	12	17	19	$113,072
Janine E. Smith	55	10	14	14	$91,087
Skyler Whiteshield	74	7	5	10	$61,002
Chavion Chow	56	4	5	5	$43,663
Clint Magera	49	3	5	5	$32,134
Larry Munoz	38	2	1	4	$18,061
Jordan K. Olesiak	3	2	0	1	$32,220
Marcus Swiontek	44	1	7	13	$28,294
Jerry Pruitt	55	1	7	8	$33,128
Jose M. Rivera, Jr.	45	1	5	7	$26,028
Hilario Estrella	15	0	0	0	$1,254

Here is the jockeys list for that meet. If you bet to win or any exotics within the win structure and IF you had thrown out the bottom 4 jockeys blindly, so far this year you would have tossed out 159 horses from the win slot and only lost 3 times. Now, I have no idea if all 4 of these jocks are always near the bottom but I would assume they are. Also, they are probably not as bad as there record might indicate, or maybe they are, but at this point there mounts are probably only going to decline in ability from here out. However, the jock named Marcus is hitting 3rd at a 30% clip. I will assume that his mounts are typically 10-1 or more, and if so, wouldn't it make sense to eliminate those jocks, and him from a win bet but certainly consider them maybe 2nd and certainly consider Marcus 3rd in a triple or super? I sure would. Little things like that can help construct a ticket that might involve more horses because you have less horses on top. Of course, like anything, it can bite you in the butt doing it that way, but you know that going in and if it helps you hit a triple or super that plays 12-20 times more than the exotic that paid out with one less horse in it within the same race ( like the exacta pays 50.00 but the triple pays 700.00) , it is well worth it.
Do note that I do not discredit this guy Marcus at all. On the contrary, this guy is trying his heart out to get the trainer and owner every penny he can and that speaks volumes in my book. Conversely, look at the leading rider. His 3rd place rate is terrible, and that is not all that uncommon for leading riders. Looks like he is 1,2 or nowhere over 85% of the time. That is another thing to consider if playing exotics. Maybe leave the guy off the ticket in the 3rd spot at 4-5, if you dare. It might just create a bombs away payoff for you.

I hope these things continue to help you and do answer my question about where the shippers come from. That answer will help me better understand what is going on there in regards to shippers and I will follow up.

Good luck.