[no1here]

Just read a couple posts from first page and a couple from last and quite impressed. If I ever get any down time I know where to turn. I hope that posters are sending you lots of points for your time given up here.

I own 3 recreational horses and do bet horses when relaxing using Bovada or betpoints. I use to bet live two tracks daily 1969-1986.

Current problem is I just won $100 twin spires in a poker tourney which is now my thing and can't decide what to do with it. What the chances of building this $100 into an endless amount?

[str]

Just read a couple posts from first page and a couple from last and quite impressed. If I ever get any down time I know where to turn. I hope that posters are sending you lots of points for your time given up here.

I own 3 recreational horses and do bet horses when relaxing using Bovada or betpoints. I use to bet live two tracks daily 1969-1986.

Current problem is I just won $100 twin spires in a poker tourney which is now my thing and can't decide what to do with it. What the chances of building this $100 into an endless amount?

Thanks for the kind words. There is a video somewhere in the middle of all this that speaks to my avatar and it is basically a tribute to a really dear friend that was the jockey in the avatar.

As you read on, please don't hesitate to ask any follow ups.

[str]

Track is sloppy. Churchill drys out as well as any track around but lets go with what it currently is:

I won't comment on all the horses but will talk about a few, starting with some I can not use.

Black Onyx is scratched.

4. Golden Soul: He just does not do it for me. I don't see it.

7. Giant Finish: Trained by one of my very best friends. A class act trainer that I have known most of my life. I will root for him with all I have but he will not be on my ticket. Beat me Tony. You can pay me back with dinner .

8. Goldencents : The trainer has really worked hard to get this horse to relax with mixed results. His last race has many people thinking he is the winner and he could be. But... The S.A. Derby win was a perfect trip and the comment says " between" leading people to believe he had a tough trip or was in traffic. His right eye never was covered up. Too me, I can not bet on him because I do not think he can be fortunate enough to get that clean a trip in this race. If he does, his raw talent could get him home, or close, but at his price, there are too many ifs for me. He will have to show me that he can be pinned and still relax enough to kick on. So far, I have not seen anything close to that. If he wins, I will lose.

9. Overanalyze: Every win has been followed with a poor effort. The best of those poor efforts was off a layoff, somewhat negating that scenario for that race. He comes off a win in here. Should love the off track but I have to toss him. I hate chasing every other race type runners.

10. Palace Malice: Blinkers On is the closest thing to stealing as there is in the game if they really make a difference. He worked in company with Overanalyze with those blinkers on on the 27th. He broke a length in front off the pole and they finished on even terms. He seemed relaxed in doing so. That is not a typical response when adding blinkers if indeed they are to make a huge difference. Because of that, which is limited info, I will pass. Hope I am not sorry.

11. Lines Of Battle: If this horse can come from around the world and run big, that will be one of the big story's of this Derby. That would be HUGE. But until I see it, I can't believe it. I will pass.

13. Falling Sky: Everybody sees this horse as the speed and most feel he will stop. Should love the off track but unless I see speed dominating on this off surface from now until post time my thought is to pass.

17. Will Take Charge: Saw his workout and Migliore was on the pony when he was galloping out and said he was making a raspy noise pulling up. That is never good to hear. His every other race form is a turn off. Pass.

18. Frac Daddy: A win and a second in two starts at Churchill is a positive. I just do not care for his overall form though. I will pass.

More to come in a few minutes.

[harthebar]

Nice work there. Str. Now I want some credit here ...going back to last Sept. I posted goldenscents will be there in the Derby.....give me some credit now.....I need it......my heart says goldenscents....but my head says no ......maybe a 3-4 place.....but still undecided......as undiceded as i can be ......I was looking at normady invasion .....oxbow is out and will take charge out. They were both dead tired after there last race . And showing it.....I want that horse who ran around the starting gTe at pimlico ....3 weeks ago....lol.....as you more to come

[harthebar]

Anyway after watching the races the wet track....I think the speed is doing ok......but I see the horse trying to go to fast.......here.....as I said .Str goldenscents wins .I will feel like a superstar with my friends for my predicttion....lol........anyway .mylute...look back on the race on 11/17 goldenscents..He has been lightly raced this year 2 races..so my picks are 6/5/8/10

[str]

2.Oxbow: He is just about as well bred for an off track as a horse can be.He has shown a liking for Churchill with a win and a 3rd in two starts . At 22-1 I feel I need to keep him in .

3. Revolutionary: Also bred to LOVE the off going. That is simply a plus though . I would find it hard to not include him on any surface. He looks solid.

5. Normandy Invasion: Also should love the slop . He seems to always show up. He could very well find himself further back than he wanted to be however. He is on the edges for me .8-1 and on the edges usually spells pass but I am not quite there yet.

6.Mylute: Last time Rosy rode this guy, he ran right out of the T.V. Another gut feeling here. Again, hope it's not just gas. Stays in for now.

12.Itsmyluckyday: If the trainer was really serious when he stated that he backed way off this horse after the Holy Bull , this guy could win . I learned long time ago that in this race, horses that make solid middle moves and come up short in the prep for this race, find that extra lung capacity the next time out. That theory, as well as the off track fits like a glove. Again, if the trainer was not posturing, this horse should run big.

14. Verrazano: What you see is what you get with this horse. He is a model of consistency. Yes, he did not run as a 2 year old. He missed by 13 1/2 hours. He should have the speed to get away with the lack of experience and find a decent spot.I can not toss him.

15. Charming Kitten: 29-1 and still in.Just can't cross him out .

16. Orb: Watching this horse train was unreal. Simply put, in the morning as well as his last 2 races, he has looked like a monster. Shug really takes his time with young horses. I don't think it has been much different here, I think that the horse is just that good. His running style could cause him problems in this race with all the mud flying. He is another one that is bred to love it. I think the trip is all that keeps him from running well.

19. Java War: Also bred to love the surface. He needs a hot pace , as does Revolutionary, to have his best chance. Not sure that happens here which means he has to be THAT much better. Leaning towards tossing him, but he is still in. Still want to see a off track race today.

20. Vyjack: Watched him work and he switched leads through the lane several times, which made him look uncomfortable. That is not good at all. However, more times than not, it's a horses feet that make them do that. If they were at all pinchy on the fast track, they should not be today in the slop. 30-1 makes me keep him in .

More soon.

[str]

Nice work there. Str. Now I want some credit here ...going back to last Sept. I posted goldenscents will be there in the Derby.....give me some credit now.....I need it......my heart says goldenscents....but my head says no ......maybe a 3-4 place.....but still undecided......as undiceded as i can be ......I was looking at normady invasion .....oxbow is out and will take charge out. They were both dead tired after there last race . And showing it.....I want that horse who ran around the starting gTe at pimlico ....3 weeks ago....lol.....as you more to come

You absolutely called this horse 6 months ago. You deserve all the credit for that. He has a ton of talent.

Well done !

[str]

The old saying that " pace makes the race" was in play as usual in the Derby. The blinkers on Palace Malice basically ran off in the slop and set the torrid pace. After the fact, it is understandable that he did so. The outrageous crowd noise and the loud sounds of 20 horses running in slop probably had him running for his life, in his mind. That set the tone for most of what happened yesterday. I guess the Mike Smith bashing will again be in full force after setting those fast fractions. It will be wrong, but ...Whatever.
Orb got a nice trip and ran as advertized. Golden Soul ran very well but no way I could see it. Revolutionary ran very well as did Normandy Invasion. Mylute also ran well. Oxbow ran VERY well being the only horse that was in the top 10 early and finish in the top twelve. I was surprised that Itsmyluckyday ran so poorly. Going off what the trainer said, I was convinced he would run very well. Goldencents finally had his right eye covered up and as almost all horses with his style and temperament do, he hardly ran. That takes me to the Beyer numbers. One of the reasons I pay no attention whatsoever to them is because without understanding HOW the horse ran a number, the number is meaningless. That is why understanding the charts, trips, and a horses wants and needs within those trips is huge. The box, the pace, the right eye, a bias, etc. almost always tells the story.

I am sorry that I was unable to throw out a few more horses and set a ticket. That was my intention but something came up( life happens) and I was not able to.
I was able to scramble and make a token play. I played Orb and Itsmyluckyday 1st and 2nd in an exacta with Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion, Oxbow, Mylute, Verrazano, Javas War, and Vyjack. It was not very well thought out but the distraction screwed me up. I ran out of time.

My first thought about Orb in looking at the Preakness is that Shug is probably the perfect trainer in today's game to try and win the triple crown. He put no pressure on Orb to run in the Derby. Orb took him there. If he can get by the Preakness he goes home for a home game in the Belmont. A race he is tailor made for. Should be fun to watch. I hope he makes it. It would be great for the game.

[Easy-Rider 66]

^Good Post STR. Enjoy reading your insights. I also hope ORB wins the Preakness and continues on to the Belmont in good shape. Probably will try and Beat ORB if he is running in the Belmont, but it would be great for the game to have Shug and ORB in play for the Triple Crown.

[harthebar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=St_k...ature=youtu.be hey str , got a question for you, I bought this at a garage sale for 25 its about 4 feet by 4 feet made of silk its a banner that commerates 100 years of travers winner and all connections of the horse........do you think it has any value, im really curious about......I put it on youtube slide show. let me know ,,,anyone let me know

[str]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=St_k...ature=youtu.be hey str , got a question for you, I bought this at a garage sale for 25 its about 4 feet by 4 feet made of silk its a banner that commerates 100 years of travers winner and all connections of the horse........do you think it has any value, im really curious about......I put it on youtube slide show. let me know ,,,anyone let me know

A collectible is worth whatever someone will pay for it. So far, 25.00

I think that if you put it on ebay now and especially if Orb wins the Preakness, you might fetch 3-4 X that. Or you could put it up on Travers week and probably do the same. Sell it at Saratoga on Travers day and a coupe of hundred would be likely.

Why not contact Saratoga and see if they have any interest? Have to think they would. Maybe donate it and take a 1K write off or whatever they would value it at for you. You can bet that someone, or someplace like Saratoga, or a sports bar IN Saratoga would love to have it.

Nice find !

[harthebar]

never have been to satatoga . was always a dream to go . all my friends go and they say its the greatest .do you every year ? went to the Belmont last year, how is the pimlico, do you go every year, ever come close to going to the winners circle............my house, third floor done, all I hace left is the counter top and a few minor touch ups down stairs, and I hope this nightmare will be over....lol I did learn a lot

A collectible is worth whatever someone will pay for it. So far, 25.00

I think that if you put it on ebay now and especially if Orb wins the Preakness, you might fetch 3-4 X that. Or you could put it up on Travers week and probably do the same. Sell it at Saratoga on Travers day and a coupe of hundred would be likely.

Why not contact Saratoga and see if they have any interest? Have to think they would. Maybe donate it and take a 1K write off or whatever they would value it at for you. You can bet that someone, or someplace like Saratoga, or a sports bar IN Saratoga would love to have it.

Nice find !

[str]

never have been to satatoga . was always a dream to go . all my friends go and they say its the greatest .do you every year ? went to the Belmont last year, how is the pimlico, do you go every year, ever come close to going to the winners circle............my house, third floor done, all I hace left is the counter top and a few minor touch ups down stairs, and I hope this nightmare will be over....lol I did learn a lot

Not every year but when I do, I see so many old friends. The place is surreal .

Don't go to Pimlico. Did not care for it when I trained. Some fond memories there but I have yet to go back.

I would rather sit in the Bowie parking lot and look at where the grandstand used to be, and see my old barns; seriously. I have done it twice over the years. The memories just flood back. I learned soooo much there and accomplished plenty as well. A lot of fond memories for me at that place.

Happy to hear about your house, job well done. Nice work.

[harthebar]

lol..ok thanks, I already booked the Pocono breeders cup day harness, in oct. always wanted to see that track and the beauty, ill go to Hambo day at meadowlands , then try Saratoga, , ive deprived myself a lot over the years by not going to places, I learned this year with the flood kicking the shit to my house and other things ,,,,, go while you can.....ive got 300 sick at work ,,,,,never use therm

Not every year but when I do, I see so many old friends. The place is surreal .

Don't go to Pimlico. Did not care for it when I trained. Some fond memories there but I have yet to go back.

I would rather sit in the Bowie parking lot and look at where the grandstand used to be, and see my old barns; seriously. I have done it twice over the years. The memories just flood back. I learned soooo much there and accomplished plenty as well. A lot of fond memories for me at that place.

Happy to hear about your house, job well done. Nice work.

[TonyP]

Went to Hollywood park on 9th. and watched the races live

[str]

I just saw that the Rollicking Stakes is now a 2 year old race .Always used to be a 3 year old race.

Running 2 year olds on Preakness Day is a bold move.

A scary proposition.

I would be very concerned.

[str]

I just saw that the Rollicking Stakes is now a 2 year old race .Always used to be a 3 year old race.

Running 2 year olds on Preakness Day is a bold move.

A scary proposition.

I would be very concerned.

Wow.

Jerry has a really nice horse there.

Can't win any easier than that.

[Louisvillekid1]

Whenever you get a chance str,

Down the road I'd love to invest some money in small % ownership in some horses. How does one go about getting into this game, and how much money would I need. What's you're advice to someone with these interests? Im 28 now, So I'm talking about maybe 10 years down the road, but I was just curious to hear you're thoughts and this possible endeavor...

Thanks

[mrginandtonic]

Who do you like in the Preakness, sir?? There was an interview that I saw with Bob Baffert. He thinks Orb is a really nice horse and that the Preakness is easiest of the three races to repeat. What's your take??

[str]

Who do you like in the Preakness, sir?? There was an interview that I saw with Bob Baffert. He thinks Orb is a really nice horse and that the Preakness is easiest of the three races to repeat. What's your take??

Hi Mr. G and T.

I would have to agree that if you win the Ky. Derby, the Preakness is typically an easier race than the Belmont. Plenty of reasons like 3 races in five weeks + all the prep before the Derby, 1 1/2 miles is not a typical distance to ride and many a rider have screwed up the timing with a premature move trying to win the triple crown, as well as if you are not familiar with the very wide turns at Belmont, you can get antsy , and plenty of other reasons if I were to think about it. Could go into more detail if you like.

As for the race today, I really do hope that Orb wins , goes home to Belmont and wins the triple crown. I think that in this day of trying to get horses to the Derby, this is the perfect storm for a triple crown to occur. Shug , as we all know, lets the horse point him to the race, not the other way around. Training for the Phipps family can give you that luxury. But take nothing away from him, that is who Shug is. Orb's workout at Belmont several days ago was breathtaking. He did it , and everything, with such ease. It really seems that he is growing up before our eyes. He has a great chance in front of him, and I hope he can win today.

But... because we all look for that price, let's take a swing in another direction.

If someone was to beat him today, I do not think it would be a closer out closing him. If that happened, he would probably be running poorly and I just don't see it. But if he would only fire somewhat, or have a terrible trip where he did not kick on, a horse near the pace would probably win.

So I might chase the 6,7,8,9 and look for box car payoffs.

I just don't see Goldencents being pinned in his right eye and doing much, assuming that happens. I am not sure how it can't happen but you never know. Titletown looks like he could be caught between Golden and Gov. Charlie. Mylute would have to out close Orb and that does not make sense if Orb fires. Departing steps way up to meet these and while he could be this good, I usually let horses show me they are that good first. That leaves Oxbow, who ran best of the speeds in the Derby and is outside today , which looks to be a nice place to be, Will Take Charge who had trouble in the Derby but what I really see is the every other race is excellent on his form, Gov. Charlie who could certainly run well, and Itsmyluckyday who I thought would run well in the Derby and had no visible excuse.
Yes, it's half the field but I guess my ticket would be Key Orb with the others 2nd and 3rd in a triple and pay a small box leaving Orb off just in case something crazy happens. For a few bucks, leaving him off certainly beats kicking yourself for weeks if you don't and those 4 outside horses complete the triple. That should pay telephone numbers if it hits. Hope it doesn't though. I really hope Orb wins.
Who do you like G and T?

[mikemca]

Think I agree with you STR except for Itsmyluckyday.While he and Goldencents are the horses that scare me I'm just presuming they are over the top.I don't see hardly any scenario where Orb finishes out of the money so just keying him 1/5,6,7 in some boxes.

[mrginandtonic]

Thanks for the input. I see the race pretty much the same way you saw it. I still think (as I did in the Derby) that the only horse that has a small chance is Oxbow. I will most like just do an exacta box with the two O's (Orb with Oxbow). May be do a trif with 1/6/all. And just and enjoy watching Orb. I think he is legit for the Crown cuz everything is relative. And this year, so far he has shown that he is the best of this year's graduating class. Thanks again.

[str]

Think I agree with you STR except for Itsmyluckyday.While he and Goldencents are the horses that scare me I'm just presuming they are over the top.I don't see hardly any scenario where Orb finishes out of the money so just keying him 1/5,6,7 in some boxes.

What gets me Mike is that if one hair was out of place and the horse was not totally full of himself, there is no way the trainer would run him. That and I just can't believe I missed by that much in my assumption that he had a chance in the Derby.

[mikemca]

What gets me Mike is that if one hair was out of place and the horse was not totally full of himself, there is no way the trainer would run him. That and I just can't believe I missed by that much in my assumption that he had a chance in the Derby.

Well in the derby he only had 1 off race so you could throw it out but now with 2 in a row its harder for me to excuse it.Plus he handled a wet track before so not buying that.You may be right about the one hair out of place but even for guys like E Plesa they don't get these TC horses every year like Pletcher and Baffert so I could see wanting to have a horse in the race and some wishful thinking.

I liked IMLD too in the derby btw.

[str]

Well in the derby he only had 1 off race so you could throw it out but now with 2 in a row its harder for me to excuse it.Plus he handled a wet track before so not buying that.You may be right about the one hair out of place but even for guys like E Plesa they don't get these TC horses every year like Pletcher and Baffert so I could see wanting to have a horse in the race and some wishful thinking.

I liked IMLD too in the derby btw.

The off track was a big reason I did like him. He did handle it before, he was bred to love it and had showed that and he just ran poorly. I don't get it.
You are right about the opportunity angle. Sometimes with an, he seems perfect let's do it, instead of, he seems perfect but whats the hurry there is always next year with the monsters I bought at Keenland last Sept. , it can blur the vision.
We shall see.

[mikemca]

Yep gl...I just don't want to see Goldencents steal it.Something about D Oneill just irritates me.

[str]

Yep gl...I just don't want to see Goldencents steal it.Something about D Oneill just irritates me.

Think I know what that might be, and he irritates me too.

From what I have read , not my kind of guy. Might be unfair, but having never met him while in the game, that's all I have to go on.

Guys In respect have said hes OK but at this point he would have to show me first hand.

As for stealing it, I would be shocked if someone did not get to his right eye.

[mikemca]

nice call...D Wayne still kicking

[str]

Thanks for the input. I see the race pretty much the same way you saw it. I still think (as I did in the Derby) that the only horse that has a small chance is Oxbow. I will most like just do an exacta box with the two O's (Orb with Oxbow). May be do a trif with 1/6/all. And just and enjoy watching Orb. I think he is legit for the Crown cuz everything is relative. And this year, so far he has shown that he is the best of this year's graduating class. Thanks again.

Great call Mr. G an T.

I just have to meet you as well as others within this forum someday.

Very well done .

[str]

nice call...D Wayne still kicking

Man, he is still kicking.

Good for Gary Stevens too.

He walked the dog.

Pace, once again, makes the race.

[mikemca]

Man, he is still kicking.

Good for Gary Stevens too.

He walked the dog.

Pace, once again, makes the race.

Exactly...Polar opposite of derby where pace collapsed and further back the better...today glacial pace and no chance if not in contention turning for home.

[MDRTYson]

Very nicely done fellas. I was going to tail you but couldn't get bovada to accept. Kept saying "not enough funds". After a 15 minute call to India to solve the problem, I was left with 2 mins to place the bets. I only got one Trifecta in. Oh well!

Any thoughts on race 13?

[str]

Exactly...Polar opposite of derby where pace collapsed and further back the better...today glacial pace and no chance if not in contention turning for home.

Mike, I have to admit that I just do not watch all the replays like I used too. Just too busy with my second life , which is new construction of houses in key parts of Md.

With that said, I think I just heard that Orb has NEVER been inside and pinned like he was today?

Is that true?

Did he get a clean right eyed run in the Fla. Derby and prior?

[str]

Very nicely done fellas. I was going to tail you but couldn't get bovada to accept. Kept saying "not enough funds". After a 15 minute call to India to solve the problem, I was left with 2 mins to place the bets. I only got one Trifecta in. Oh well!

Any thoughts on race 13?

Was typing when I heard they were off.

The best I could have done was to recommend the winner as a place bet.

I hate horses that make a habit of running second.

Might have recommended Leatherbury's horse but saw it was scratched while they were running.

A 1-5 shot to place is not my cup of tea.

Hope you did OK in the race.

Used to be an hour between the Preakness and the last.

Sat through it twice but once, it was worth the wait.

Probably need to tell that story someday.

[mikemca]

Mike, I have to admit that I just do not watch all the replays like I used too. Just too busy with my second life , which is new construction of houses in key parts of Md.

With that said, I think I just heard that Orb has NEVER been inside and pinned like he was today?

Is that true?

Did he get a clean right eyed run in the Fla. Derby and prior?

Yeah that was the first time he has ever been pinned in.In the FOY he got a pretty clear trip from rail draw as the speed opened a gap and he rallied wide.Maybe that was part of it today but I would think he just reacted to so many big efforts in a row.It very rare for horses to run as fast as he did over and over as not many horses can sustain those big efforts.The only one I know of that did was Smarty Jones.