str, in the same race do you see anything that suggests #4 Dry Summer doesn't like the racing surface?
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci.../3/sham-s-gr-3
I'm taking a few steps back to look at the concept of the racing surface. A couple of questions to start with.
If a horse dislikes the racing surface, is that pretty much game over for the race? In other words, could a horse be in great shape and win on that day on almost any surface, yet give a flat performance on a surface he doesn't like? And if it's not that dramatic, roughly how much (in percentage points) can a disliked surface take off the performance?
The other question is about bias. When the track has a rail bias, wouldn't it be more up to the jockey than the horse to take it to the bank? If the jockey has a good read on the race, wouldn't that increase the effect of any type of bias, and vice versa?
One more...
You mentioned previously that a horse may take shorter strides if he doesn't like the mud. Is dislike for other surfaces also expressed through shorter strides, or would you look for something else?