[harthebar]

dark horse and str,the day before the track was fast 1/4 jan.4th it was a sunny day,ill say......i watched a couple of replays of greeley awesome his last two,the last one he looked real good two back ....he was ok.....
but i was thinking about why they S him from saturday.....since Oneil trains both,,,,i was reading that there is some kind of point system in the races for the derby......maybe he didnt want to take a chance with them losing points to each other,...just a thought.but in that race today tiz a minister will be flying late,who i think is a real good horse...
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...oint-standings


any thought guys......str

[harthebar]

http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-...kentucky-derby

[str]

Without a form or any understanding of the horses quality or style ,let me ask a couple of questions first. Is this horse a real stakes horse? Or, is he real speedy and the trainer wanted to have a rabbit to help teach his horse to rate somewhat? Or, was Goldencents also eligible for this race ( doubtful). Also, did they call for an off track by chance last week when Goldencents ran? It came up dry but am wondering. I will explain my thoughts after you respond so you can see my way of looking at this.
Thanks.

Well , here is my thought process on this.

A. He only entered this horse in case he scratched Goldencents.

B. If this horse is speed, he was looking for a rabbit but found one inside of him once the race was drawn.

C. If an off track came up AND if both were eligible for both races, he could pick and choose.

There are several more but it is just stabbing for answers so no point in going on.

Bottom Line. Scratching this horse for a softer spot ( I assume that a starter allow. is indeed softer but do see a 4-5 shot on the program) is not a negative at all IMO. He probably felt this horse could not beat the other one any way. So I would not view the scratch as anything negative at all.

Hope that helps.

[Dark Horse]

Thanks for that str. I was just wondering. Does an owner factor in at all? I had wondered about this before, when Baffert entered four horses in an 8 horse race. Is that just part of the game or something that would annoy owners?

[JakeLc]

Greely Awesome has run a handful of times long and short and lost for maiden tags of between 30 and 62500.
Last race he found a horrible field going long and demolished it running a big number for mdn40.
Today he finds he a field he can handle if he can repeat his last big number.
Maybe ONeil knew the Sham was going to come up light and wanted to see who actually did show up before deciding go or no go.
If he had run he would very very likely ended up no better than 4th.

[Dark Horse]

Greeley Awesome a winner! (At 5/2, but much better odds at Ehorsex exchange; related to Bookmaker)

[Dark Horse]

On the topic of scratched horses that are quickly reentered. Today's race 7 at Santa Anita has three of them, all scratched in the San Pasqual, won by Coil last weekend. They are the #1, #4, and #6 horses.

[str]

Greeley Awesome a winner! (At 5/2, but much better odds at Ehorsex exchange; related to Bookmaker)

I hope you guys had it.

[str]

On the topic of scratched horses that are quickly reentered. Today's race 7 at Santa Anita has three of them, all scratched in the San Pasqual, won by Coil last weekend. They are the #1, #4, and #6 horses.

I would never pay any attention to stakes scratches unless it was a very solid horse that had obviously pointed for the race only to be scratched late.
People will enter hopeful of favorites not entering or running or getting a solo speed draw, great post ,off track, etc.

10-1 shots that scratch from stakes is never a negative. If anything, it is a positive , alerting you to the fact that the horse might be limited in stakes talent, but is currently training very well , and the trainer thought that if the race came up soft, the horse would have a chance.

If the 1,4,7 horses were going to be 10-1 or close, or way more, they are ready to run, and probably in a spot to do well, providing the trainer placed the horse in the right spot.

[str]

Har, I have not forgotten you but the other post was time sensitive. I will get to your questions and PMs as soon as I can.

[str]

Greely Awesome has run a handful of times long and short and lost for maiden tags of between 30 and 62500.
Last race he found a horrible field going long and demolished it running a big number for mdn40.
Today he finds he a field he can handle if he can repeat his last big number.
Maybe ONeil knew the Sham was going to come up light and wanted to see who actually did show up before deciding go or no go.
If he had run he would very very likely ended up no better than 4th.

Thanks as always Jake.

He did not fit in the stake but the starter was right up his alley.

Trainer did a nice job there.

[harthebar]

i thought he ran a nice race,...speaking of scratches,dont owners or trainers sometimes put a horse in so they can get the race off.....enough entries.....other question...that 7500 claimer ran today,something happened at the start ....and he gave the field 6-8 lengths.....do you think right at that moment a jockey would try to push the horse hard ...or do you think he would make it a nice workout ...what would most jockeys do............

[harthebar]

darkhorse nice job following greely awesome ,he looked good

[harthebar]

i dont follow this.......you wrote....why is this ? if they are 10-1 ,they are ready instead of 3-1 or 4-1 10-1 shots that scratch from stakes is never a negative. If anything, it is a positive , alerting you to the fact that the horse might be limited in stakes talent, but is currently training very well , and the trainer thought that if the race came up soft, the horse would have a chance.

If the 1,4,7 horses were going to be 10-1 or close, or way more, they are ready to run, and probably in a spot to do well, providing the trainer placed the horse in the right spot

[Dark Horse]

Thanks, the 7 race doesn't look to have much value (in my book). The horses I tossed out were the same that were scratched earlier; unrelated to that. lol

[str]

str, in the same race do you see anything that suggests #4 Dry Summer doesn't like the racing surface?

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci.../3/sham-s-gr-3


I'm taking a few steps back to look at the concept of the racing surface. A couple of questions to start with.

If a horse dislikes the racing surface, is that pretty much game over for the race? In other words, could a horse be in great shape and win on that day on almost any surface, yet give a flat performance on a surface he doesn't like? And if it's not that dramatic, roughly how much (in percentage points) can a disliked surface take off the performance?

The other question is about bias. When the track has a rail bias, wouldn't it be more up to the jockey than the horse to take it to the bank? If the jockey has a good read on the race, wouldn't that increase the effect of any type of bias, and vice versa?

One more...
You mentioned previously that a horse may take shorter strides if he doesn't like the mud. Is dislike for other surfaces also expressed through shorter strides, or would you look for something else?

Q. If a horse dislikes the racing surface, is that pretty much game over for the race? In other words, could a horse be in great shape and win on that day on almost any surface, yet give a flat performance on a surface he doesn't like? And if it's not that dramatic, roughly how much (in percentage points) can a disliked surface take off the performance?

A. Yes, it is game over if the horse really does not like the surface. I have had horses win or run well and the jock say that the horse did not really care for the track but that is the exception unless they were tons the best. In most cases they will not extend out fully because they do not trust the footing, similar to people when we walk on what we might worry is ice or something slippery. We take shorter, slower, more deliberate steps and even concentrate and think about each step along the way, thus slowing down. Horses do the same thing.

Q. The other question is about bias. When the track has a rail bias, wouldn't it be more up to the jockey than the horse to take it to the bank? If the jockey has a good read on the race, wouldn't that increase the effect of any type of bias, and vice versa?

A. Yes, it is up to the jockey. That is the problem. Most if not darn near all do not recognize it when it is there. Maybe it is our different view points. I can not say why they do not. In watching Aqueduct racing a couple of weeks ago, it was a GREAT rail and jocks were all over the place. The lack of awareness amazes me . I hear retired jocks and even active jocks talk about the bias but it rarely equates to how they rode or do ride when one exists. Nothing set me off more than having a horse with a great draw on a strong bias of some sort and watching the jock not use it after I told him it was there. Unbelievable.

Q. One more...
You mentioned previously that a horse may take shorter strides if he doesn't like the mud. Is dislike for other surfaces also expressed through shorter strides, or would you look for something else?

A. Yes. Turf horses that only like it firm will simply run slower on yielding turf. Sometimes if the track is very powdery it will be what we call cuppy, or it breaks away from under the horses feet. If that horses foot is not shaped in a way to be able to allow for that, they will not run as fast. That is, a slightly shorter, more thought out, careful stride. That means the horse is slower. Simple as that.
There is no way for a handicapper to look at the horse and determine this prior too. Way to much work. It will show in the form if it exists if they have run over the type of surface before.

[str]

i thought he ran a nice race,...speaking of scratches,dont owners or trainers sometimes put a horse in so they can get the race off.....enough entries.....other question...that 7500 claimer ran today,something happened at the start ....and he gave the field 6-8 lengths.....do you think right at that moment a jockey would try to push the horse hard ...or do you think he would make it a nice workout ...what would most jockeys do............

Q. speaking of scratches,dont owners or trainers sometimes put a horse in so they can get the race off.....enough entries..

A. Yes, it is called filling the race. When the racing secretary needs to fill the card and only has 5 horses for a race let's say, they will get on the phone and call trainers who have participated in the race before and ask them to run in the race to get the entries up to say 7 or 8 horses. That is called hustling a race or from the trainers point of view, getting hustled. If you never say yes, good luck requesting a race down the road or more stalls if you need them. This is where it becomes a little political. You scratch there back, they scratch yours in the way of getting a certain race and distance written for a certain horse or getting a few more stalls at the next meet. Funny, you should ask as I got fired by an owner because I filled a stake race with 2 horses to make a 5 horse field ( rules called for a minimum of 5 horses in order to card a stake in Md.) for the track owner at Laurel. They had heavily advertised the race to come see whoever the hell it was, can't remember, some 3 year old filly in January or February that was really nice. I filled the race with two horses uncoupled with different owners . One owner I called before entering, the other owner was on a cruise and unable to be reached. Your aunt was the owner on the cruise. Neither horse had any real chance of beating the 1-5 shot but both had some chance to be 2nd or 3rd thus becoming stakes placed . Both were home breds so becoming stakes placed was a big deal being as both horses were really only worth about 20K each, if that. So after the entries come out but before the race, the other owner demands that I scratch your aunts horse so the race will only be a 4 horse race thus giving that horse a better chance to run 3rd. again, that would be huge for either owner. I said no way, it was unfair to the Westlands to do that even though they have no idea they are in the race. So I run both, and finish 3rd and 4th. The Westlands horse runs 3rd and becomes stakes placed, the jerk that wanted me to screw the Westlands runs last. I get fired for that but it was fine with me. Guy was in arrears 15K( decent money 30 years ago) and had to pay in full before he could take the horse, and his home breds were slow any way. Ask her, she will tell you.

Q. that 7500 claimer ran today,something happened at the start ....and he gave the field 6-8 lengths.....do you think right at that moment a jockey would try to push the horse hard ...or do you think he would make it a nice workout ...what would most jockeys do............


A. Most jocks will allow the horse to collect themselves and settle and once their feet are under them , try and make a run. If they are pure speed, most will rush up as it is probably the only way they have a chance. Either way, to do nothing and call it a workout is not their choice. Most know that they must put forth some effort to run well. Sometimes if the horse runs badly, it might look to the bettor that the jock did not try but the trainer is watching and so are the stewards. A jock can get fired for that, at least mine would have, unless I saw and understood what was being attempted. The Stewards can and do fine jocks if this happens. I do not see it very often, but I have seen it.

[str]

i dont follow this.......you wrote....why is this ? if they are 10-1 ,they are ready instead of 3-1 or 4-1 10-1 shots that scratch from stakes is never a negative. If anything, it is a positive , alerting you to the fact that the horse might be limited in stakes talent, but is currently training very well , and the trainer thought that if the race came up soft, the horse would have a chance.

If the 1,4,7 horses were going to be 10-1 or close, or way more, they are ready to run, and probably in a spot to do well, providing the trainer placed the horse in the right spot

What I am trying to say is if a 3-1 shot is scratched from a Stake race, there is a physical reason for doing so, or track condition. But if a 10 or 20-1 shot is scratched from a stake to run in a softer race, it is because the trainer felt the horse had very little or basically no chance to run well. But... because he was willing to enter in the stake to begin with, this tells you that the horse is doing very well and certainly is not fighting any current problems that might not let it run to it's peak performance. You know by the fact that it was even thought of to maybe run in an ambitious spot, that the horse is currently doing very well and the trainer is expecting a solid performance.
Hope that explains it better.

[str]

Har, I will get to your PM soon.

I think I am caught up but if I missed anyone's question please let me know.

[harthebar]

that was a great response,as i said your the nile river..........for those who dont get that ....its a compliment...the nile braches out in so many different ways....

What I am trying to say is if a 3-1 shot is scratched from a Stake race, there is a physical reason for doing so, or track condition. But if a 10 or 20-1 shot is scratched from a stake to run in a softer race, it is because the trainer felt the horse had very little or basically no chance to run well. But... because he was willing to enter in the stake to begin with, this tells you that the horse is doing very well and certainly is not fighting any current problems that might not let it run to it's peak performance. You know by the fact that it was even thought of to maybe run in an ambitious spot, that the horse is currently doing very well and the trainer is expecting a solid performance.
Hope that explains it better.

[Dark Horse]

Thanks for another textbook answer, str. A big help for me.

[harthebar]

you forget about me lo

[harthebar]

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...132&registry=T
memory lane

[str]

Here is a recent question I received.

Q. have a good friend who owns a few horses, ** ***** .....they are trained by ***** **** ..at philly,i know he is one of the better trainers there,.....so question is ,,,how much hands on time would you think he spends with the horses ,...i feel that he has so many horses why worry about a 7500 -10000 claimer ,i told him to find a hungry trainer with less horses.

A. He sees every horse each day he is at that stable in all probability. That is certainly how I was taught.
When you train a large number of horses, getting results is a must. People with only a horse or two that are your owners all think the same way. They will always wonder if they might get more of something from a smaller trainer. Trainers of big stables are fully aware of this.
Horses in smaller stables might get more direct trainer contact than those in larger stables but those larger stables have asst. trainers and foremen that are probably capable of being trainers as well. Larger stables will typically have an in with getting better riders for their horses, have better access to blacksmiths and vets as well. While this is not absolute, it does exist.
Owners need to figure out what it is they really want. If it is a lot of one on one contact with the trainer, they are best served to find a trainer with 12-20 horses. If they want to treat it like a business and buy and sell and win or move on, they might be better served finding someone that manages their stable that way. For claimers, the best advise I can give anyone is , and because it is so vitally important to their pocket book I will capitalize it, DON'T BE AFRAID TO HAVE YOUR CLAIMING HORSE CLAIMED . Protecting your horse and being satisfied with 3rds , 4ths, and the occasional 2nd and a once a year win, is death valley to an owner. People fall in what they call love with their claiming horses and don't want to lose them. My way of looking at it is if you love them so much, why don't you give them a chance to win the fight that they live and die for, and try their hearts out everyday in training and especially on race day. You wouldn't put your kid in a position to constantly fail because you love them but constantly put your horse in a position to fail because you love them? Someone needs to explain that logic too me because I don't get it.
Find a trainer that excels in what you perceive to be the arena you will be playing in. Babies? Fine, get a trainer that does well with them. Grass horses? Fine, find a good grass trainer. Wheeling and dealing in the claiming game? You know what to do. Find one and maximize YOUR chances of success.
Completely lost and don't know who to ask? Walk up to the gate crew when a race is going to be run that starts in front of the grandstand. Ask them what they think. Then, ask the track vet who gets in and out of the car driving the officials around each race. Ask the outrider on the pony. Ask the clocker at 10 AM just when he is finishing his morning routine. There are a ton of people to ask, and if you conjure up the courage to talk to them, you would be amazed at how nice many of them are. Horse people at the track like to help people more so than not. They are a great group. Not all of them, but enough that you will get opinions in which to formulate your own.

Back to the question, he spends enough time with that horse to know what he needs to do. And finding a "hungry trainer" might work but it might also blow up in your face. Hungry trainers probably have inferior riders, inferior vets, inferior, dentists, inferior blacksmiths, etc. Not all of them, that would be unfair, but you need to be very careful if you are going to make a move.

Bottom line. If this 7500 claimer was winning we would not be having this discussion. My best guess is that the horse needs a drop in class, or a change in venue, like Penn. Nat. or Charles Town. The old race track adage is : "No hop like the drop". Run them where they can win, and the owner will be content to stay put in all probability and unless it is a beaten race and the true ability of the horse is very low, the horses will to win will rise and it will be a better horse for it in it's next race. Winning makes it all better. Even for the horse.

Hope that helps.

[harthebar]

str here is example of what were talking about tomorrow at laurel there is a horse tru greek ,ive been following .....anyway he was do to run on 1-16 race 6 at laurel but was S he was listed at 12-1 ...here are the top finishers in that race

1st	10	INTREPID CITIZEN	$16.20	$7.00	$3.80
2nd	7	ARRIVE		$5.00	$3.80
3rd	2	ETHELRED			$2.80
4th	8	REBEL EXCHANGE

....anyway his last start he raced agaist tomorrows even money choice game effort ....which he lost to by 4-5 on 12-31-12 but tru greek stumbled out of the gate badly ....game off the rail and went 5 wide............and is listed as 12-1 .....valid won that race...i feel the 1-16 -13 field is a stronger field...........this brings me back to one of yor comments about...you rather come back with a long shot S the a favorite......watch the replay if you can 12-31 let me know what you think ......i like the spot here

1st	10	INTREPID CITIZEN	$16.20	$7.00	$3.80
2nd	7	ARRIVE		$5.00	$3.80
3rd	2	ETHELRED			$2.80
4th	8	REBEL EXCHANGE

Tru Greek is entered on January 31, 2013 at LAUREL PARK.

Your comments for this horse were:retrieve

Full Entries for Race

Race: 2 - 1:03 PM EXACTA & TRIFECTA / 2nd HALF OF THE DAILY DOUBLE 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse: $ 38,000. (Plus $8,790 - MBF - Maryland Bred Fund)For Maidens, Three Years Old. Weight, 122 Lbs. One Mile.

PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer
3	Tru Greek	3/G	LA	Richard Monterrey	122	Robin L. Graham

[str]

str here is example of what were talking about tomorrow at laurel there is a horse tru greek ,ive been following .....anyway he was do to run on 1-16 race 6 at laurel but was S he was listed at 12-1 ...here are the top finishers in that race

1st	10	INTREPID CITIZEN	$16.20	$7.00	$3.80
2nd	7	ARRIVE		$5.00	$3.80
3rd	2	ETHELRED			$2.80
4th	8	REBEL EXCHANGE

....anyway his last start he raced agaist tomorrows even money choice game effort ....which he lost to by 4-5 on 12-31-12 but tru greek stumbled out of the gate badly ....game off the rail and went 5 wide............and is listed as 12-1 .....valid won that race...i feel the 1-16 -13 field is a stronger field...........this brings me back to one of yor comments about...you rather come back with a long shot S the a favorite......watch the replay if you can 12-31 let me know what you think ......i like the spot here

1st	10	INTREPID CITIZEN	$16.20	$7.00	$3.80
2nd	7	ARRIVE		$5.00	$3.80
3rd	2	ETHELRED			$2.80
4th	8	REBEL EXCHANGE

Tru Greek is entered on January 31, 2013 at LAUREL PARK.

Your comments for this horse were:retrieve

Full Entries for Race

Race: 2 - 1:03 PM EXACTA & TRIFECTA / 2nd HALF OF THE DAILY DOUBLE 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse: $ 38,000. (Plus $8,790 - MBF - Maryland Bred Fund)For Maidens, Three Years Old. Weight, 122 Lbs. One Mile.

PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer
3	Tru Greek	3/G	LA	Richard Monterrey	122	Robin L. Graham

Do remember that I was referring to STAKES RACE scratches , not scratches from maiden or other races. That said, I did not have a chance to see the replay and must leave for meetings . If I make it back in time, I will try and see a replay.

So going into this totally blind of form , Robin Graham when going Blinkers On is certainly something to look twice at. Also, this race is one mile which should be a ONE TURN race and the 2nd wire at Laurel, meaning a very long stretch.

The 1 1/16th race at Laurel is a 2 turn race that starts extremely close to the turn . As a result, these are 2 completely different types of races.

Lastly, it is VERY windy here today( gusting to 35-40 mph) and if it keeps up, the wind will have a lot to say about the stretch run in all probability.

Wind blowing from the wire towards the 1/4 pole will favor speed through the lane, impeding closers . Wind from the 1/4 pole towards the wire will favor closers through the lane. As of now, it is wire to 1/4 pole so a horse on or very near the lead should have a solid advantage if it stays like this.

If this horse shows improved speed or motor with Blinkers On , as it should, see if he can be in that good position at the 1/4 pole. If so, give it a shot. I will try and get back in time but it will be close.

Good luck.

[harthebar]

tru greek ran a nice race got 2nd at 20-1 you are right the wind hurt ...not to mention the winner drifted into him.....he lost by neck......good race

1st	7	ARRIVE	$9.00	$5.20	$2.10
2nd	3	TRU GREEK		$18.40	$3.60
3rd	4	GAME EFFORT			$2.10
4th	5	TAKE THE OFFER

Other Payouts

$2 EX (7/3) paid $82.60

$2 TRI (7/3/4) paid $196.20

[DaColts]

I thought he was going win easy till the horse drifted into him. Great call thou

[harthebar]

Santa Anita Park - Thursday, January 31, 2013 Race 3 - 2:02 PM $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 3-4-5) $2 Pick Six Starts (Races 3-8) / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT Purse $56,000. For California Bred Or California Sired Maidens, Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward. Weight, 122 Lbs. (Non-Starters for a claiming price of $40,000 or less in the last 3 starts preferred). . About Six And One Half Furlongs. (Downhill turf)

P# PP Horse Virtual Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1 Little Unusual (CA) 5/M L J J Hernandez 122 B Abrams 15/1 2 2 Sidepocket Run (CA) 4/F L T Baze 122 D Warren 6/1 3 3 Unbridled Ambition (CA) 4/F L R Bejarano 122 M F Jones 3/1 4 4 Hanserella (CA) 4/F L E Hernandez 1157 J Mendoza 30/1 5 5 Marcyjane (CA) 4/F L G K Gomez 122 M F Jones 5/2 6 6 Puff Pastry (CA) 4/F L M Gutierrez 122 E R Freeman 8/1 7 7 My Cinsation (CA) 4/F L E A Maldonado 122 J Bonde 4/1 8 8 Commander Cloud (CA) 5/M L S Arias 122 S Waterman 30/1 9 9 Lethal Miss (CA) 4/F L B Blanc 122 F Meza 20/1 10 10 Fabulous Fashion (CA) 4/F L C S Nakatani 122 C Gaines 4/1

[harthebar]

yea you saw that too, i got the exacta good,,,but i keyed him in my pick 4 ....that hurt....he drifted into to hi twice,,,,

[harthebar]

6

6

Puff Pastry (CA)

4/F

L

M Gutierrez

122

E R Freeman

8/1 santa anita race 3 ,same type of play as tru greek .... racing some tough horses

[DaColts]

Yeah got some of the exacta and tri money here as well.

[DaColts]

I'll def be watching the 3rd at SA after your great call there

[harthebar]

str ..thanks for the answer ....very good mr. nile. lol
3rd race at santa anita same type of deal puff pastry
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...012013USA4.pdf watch this replay ...of this race.....
and once again ...thank you

[harthebar]

its more of a follow up type ...he has been racing real good horses.....soooooo its horse racing.......

I'll def be watching the 3rd at SA after your great call there