[str]

The M/L on No Hesitation is 20-1, and when I looked at the form, these are the questions that I have and I would like to get your input.

This race is optional claimer for $65000 going 6.5f. This horse is one of the two that are trained by Doug O'Neill. The other one is Mensa Heat (M/L 6-1). Mensa Heat is up for claims while No Hesitation is not. Mensa Heat is still an ok horse IMO, but he is not what he used to be. He ran 50 races so far as a 6 yo, and he hasn't won at all this year in 9 races ( placed twice and show 4 times). No Hesitation on the other hand is off of a six months layoff and the last time he raced, he lost by 36 lengths going 1 mile 1/16. The race before that was 6.5f and he lost by 7 lengths. His highest Beyer figure for last two years was 72, while in 2010, he ran a high of 94. Looking at his past performances, he has had multiple long layoffs and the trainers had tried various distances. So to me, I think that there is something physically wrong with the horse. Yet, this horse is not for claims. So, why?? This race is not an easy race for this horse to come back IMO, unless the trainer knows something that is not obvious on the form. Also, when horses have multiple long layoffs, what do you make of that?? Thanks in advance. (sorry if these questions have been asked before).

Q. Looking at his past performances, he has had multiple long layoffs and the trainers had tried various distances. So to me, I think that there is something physically wrong with the horse. Yet, this horse is not for claims. So, why??

A. I do not think that there is anything physically wrong with him. I think I have assumed what is going on in the other responses.

Q.Also, when horses have multiple long layoffs, what do you make of that??

A. Taking the winter off is one thing but when breaks are long and often, the horse has problems that more times than not, are reoccurring. Bowed tendons quickly come to mind. Not so much bone joints because those types will typically drop down along the way, depending on where in the joint and which joint. Because there are methods of trying to continue to run a horse with joint problems, like draining fluid off the area, a short term fix that if done too often really screws the horse up, those types are the ones that you might see dropping down and changing hands often. If a horse hurts a tendon, in most cases you need to stop right away. With upper joints of knees not so much. With lower joints of knees yes. With ankles, it's a gamble to keep going. Not a good idea. Bleeders, nope, they just keep bleeding unless given time to heel. Feet, there is no decision, they can or they can't. Mr.Big John Tammaro told me many years ago " no feet, no horse". He was spot on.
The bottom line is, if they continually have big gaps in their form, they have problems. As a bettor you must see if the horse runs effectively for your bet or not during the comeback. ( 1st of the lay, 2nd off the lay, needs to run fit, like 3rd time is best, or whatever). Lots of those also get scratched when the track is muddy. None of that should matter as far a handicapping the race because you can see how they did when in the same predicament last time( ie. off time and each race forward from that time off.)

Hope that helps.

[str]

About that back end. Any added thought about that, str? I read that Dutrow liked to claim horses that ran poorly because of back end stuff, because he knew he could improve them. I also remember O'Neill gave I'll Have Another some type of electric (shock?) therapy to the back end before the Derby.

Q. I read that Dutrow liked to claim horses that ran poorly because of back end stuff, because he knew he could improve them.

A. Their dad was as good with honest, fair, no illegal drugs , therapy on hind ends as there ever was in the business. He took horses that others could not get to run and made them happy. Nothing illegal was needed nor used. Some guys might have been as good as Dickie Sr. but none better that I ever met or knew of when it came to physical therapy on a horse.

I don't know about O'Neill but it is not a shock therapy that I, as well as others used or Dickie or the sons but there was treatments that were electric in nature that used pulses and magnets to get deep in the muscle tissue. Nothing shock wise but soothing similar to a tenz( hope I spelled that right) unit that humans have for bad backs. There was also a trick in shoeing that helped relieve the hind end pressure. Jogging the wrong way or on the outside fence instead of training the standard way was one of Dickie's big things with all his therapy. Massages actually came into fashion where the girl( all mine were) would work on the hind end for 45 minutes to an hour with deep muscle massage and it was amazing sometimes. Also a trick to teach the rider about their seat when breaking as well as warming up.
Lots of things that added up to success on hind ends for those that understood it. By now, most probably do, but in the 70s and 80s it was things like that that made me look like I had a clue.

Can't say shock in that business or somebody thinks that you are lighting the horses up ( cattle prod or crude imitations). Dickie never stood for that . No way.

[Dark Horse]

If I recall correctly, Dutrow mentioned that the power was in the back end, so that's why a horse could improve dramatically with the right treatment. Seems a great claiming angle.

One more thought about No Hesitation. He really seemed to like to run for Walcott (rider). I know horses can run faster for some jockeys than others (because you mentioned that), but can a horse actually get attached to a rider to the point where he's off his game with someone else on board?

[str]

If I recall correctly, Dutrow mentioned that the power was in the back end, so that's why a horse could improve dramatically with the right treatment.

One more thought about No Hesitation. He really seemed to like to run for Walcott (rider). I know horses can run faster for some jockeys than others (because you mentioned that), but can a horse actually get attached to a rider to the point where he's off his game with someone else on board?

Q. If I recall correctly, Dutrow mentioned that the power was in the back end, so that's why a horse could improve dramatically with the right treatment.

A. Ricky learned from the best. He is 100% correct.

Q. One more thought about No Hesitation. He really seemed to like to run for Walcott (rider). I know horses can run faster for some jockeys than others (because you mentioned that), but can a horse actually get attached to a rider to the point where he's off his game with someone else on board?

A. Only in the rarest of instances. Not here I don't think. He ran well against lesser and when free of any problems. He was happy and winning. He was still trying hard when he lost for awhile. It's only recently and after many defeats that he has lost his confidence.

But... if that jock was at Golden Gate in a race or 2 I would be all over that! Lol.

[mrginandtonic]

Impressive win by Fast Bullet!!

[Dark Horse]

str, do you have any words of wisdom about the pools? In the Hollywood Starlet this past weekend both the 1st and 2nd place finishers paid more to show than to place.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...120812USA9.pdf

[str]

str, do you have any words of wisdom about the pools? In the Hollywood Starlet this past weekend both the 1st and 2nd place finishers paid more to show than to place.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...120812USA9.pdf

Keeping an eye on all the pools is never a total waste of time IMO. I would not do any more than glance at it a couple of times just to make sure they are typical. A lot of large show wagers are placed well before they come out of the paddock though. If you have plenty of time to think about it, that helps.

Big races can obviously attract bridge jumpers. But when a bridge jumper places a huge show bet on a horse that ran on a bias track in it's last start, as a person who keeps track of those things, that is like a dream come true. No, it is not as simple as that, but, if the horse was with and comes into the next race even or vs. that tells you that the bridge jumper does not know something that you do. And while some might say that she was fighting the speed bias in her last start, didn't she drift well off the fence from the 3/16s pole home? And wasn't she on the rail every step until she drifted? Pretty sure she was .The drifting as badly as she did is NEVER a positive, so my thinking would have been that she might be vulnerable in this race, provided I had the time to be able to think about it. Sounds easy after the race, but seriously, bridge jumping on a 2 year old filly, who never would have run if she had won her last race is unbelievable too me. This race was an afterthought. He was only trying to win so as to gain votes for 2 year old filly of the year because he got beat in the B.C. race.

Again, it sounds easy after the fact but if given the time to think about it, and handicapping the race beforehand anyway, placing a show bet on a horse that I liked over the 2-5 shot would have been a no brainer I would think, if of course, you saw the lopsided pool. Especially under those circumstances I mentioned.

Hope that helps.

[Dark Horse]

Thanks. So it was Executiveprivilege that created the big show pool, as well as the value for the rest of the field. A double advantage! Makes sense now.

Executiveprivilege (6/5 ML) was bet all the way to 1/9 before going off at 2/5. In my opinion she had ran a strong BC race, even though it was her first loss, other than a poor start that placed her a decisive four lengths back at the quarter mile (she finished only a length behind). I didn't expect a strong race out of her this time. But the value for some of the other horses was phenomenal. Wish all races were like that.

So the signature for potential value like this is a big race with a huge favorite?

[str]

Thanks. So it was Executiveprivilege that created the big show pool, as well as the value for the rest of the field. A double advantage! Makes sense now.

Executiveprivilege (6/5 ML) was bet all the way to 1/9 before going off at 2/5. In my opinion she had ran a strong BC race, even though it was her first loss, other than a poor start that placed her a decisive four lengths back at the quarter mile (she finished only a length behind). I didn't expect a strong race out of her this time. But the value for some of the other horses was phenomenal. Wish all races were like that.

So the signature for potential value like this is a big race with a huge favorite?

I am pretty sure that she actually broke well. It just seemed like everyone else broke poorly because the # 1 horse, the eventual winner on a extremely speed favoring track, broke perfectly and easily outran ExecutiveP. to the 1st turn. Because of outside pressure being gunned up to contend for the lead, the rider chose to take back off the duel that seemed to be taking shape, went to the rail, saved ground 3-4 off, fired when asked, although it took her a bit to get her right eye clear of the horse trying to make it tight on her, but once the eye was clear, she fired big time, but then drifted badly. So, she ran very well, and for another race to occur as an afterthought when she was pointed all summer and fall for Nov. 2nd, along with the drifting tells you all you need to know as to why she might not be the proper candidate for a bridge jumping bet.

Hindsight is 20-20, but this one is not really very hard to predict, compared to most.

The signature for potential value is any race where the pool has been altered . Stakes races seem to attract these bets more than other races. Never really understood that except to liken it to when guys make a huge bet on the Super Bowl. I don't get it, especially in today's climate where a jock will ease a horse if they suspect all is not right. Not that they should not, but for a show bettor, it's a nightmare.

[Dark Horse]

Thanks for the accurate read on that race. I was just going by the 'race to the quarter mile' that this BC turned into (for two turn races on the dirt); where the cutoff point for winners was 1.5 lengths.

The same bridge jumper scenario played out in the WV Derby earlier this year, with sky high favorite 'blue tail' Hansen bet to 1/12 before going off at 3/5. http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...try=USA&race=8 The winner Macho Macho paid as much to show as he paid to win, and Bourbon Courage paid about 2.5 times more to show than to place. lol

[str]

Winter is upon us and that means it is bias time at Laurel !

I checked the Laurel charts from yesterday after reading the other thread about dead rails.

Please go to DRF.com and click on results and then PDF Charts to see for yourself.

Here is what I saw briefly:

In 9 races, the longest shot on the board finished in the exacta 3 times.

One winner paid 100.80 to win.

All 3 longest shots on the board got rail trips.

As I have stated , Friday was always a HUGE day for grading the track AND CHUTES at Laurel. Apparently and not at all surprisingly, it still is.

If the night forecast is for temps to get below freezing during the week, the track needs to be worked most of the night. Grading is a must or a very dead rail will show up. Friday's are positively grading days in the winter. More biases occur at Laurel on Fridays than any other day. Many a Saturday will follow up close to the same if not the same in the winter.

It did not get as cold last night as it did on Thursday night but I have to think it was graded again today. Probably not the chutes, which can be big, but if it was not all that cold, the chutes were not worked much so they should stay about the same as yesterday.

I would at least keep an eye on Laurel early today and see whats going on.

Hope that helps .

[str]

Winter is upon us and that means it is bias time at Laurel !

I checked the Laurel charts from yesterday after reading the other thread about dead rails.

Please go to DRF.com and click on results and then PDF Charts to see for yourself.

Here is what I saw briefly:

In 9 races, the longest shot on the board finished in the exacta 3 times.

One winner paid 100.80 to win.

All 3 longest shots on the board got rail trips.

As I have stated , Friday was always a HUGE day for grading the track AND CHUTES at Laurel. Apparently and not at all surprisingly, it still is.

If the night forecast is for temps to get below freezing during the week, the track needs to be worked most of the night. Grading is a must or a very dead rail will show up. Friday's are positively grading days in the winter. More biases occur at Laurel on Fridays than any other day. Many a Saturday will follow up close to the same if not the same in the winter.

It did not get as cold last night as it did on Thursday night but I have to think it was graded again today. Probably not the chutes, which can be big, but if it was not all that cold, the chutes were not worked much so they should stay about the same as yesterday.

I would at least keep an eye on Laurel early today and see whats going on.

Hope that helps .

Today's rail at Laurel is very very good.

[Dark Horse]

Thanks for the heads up. Missed it this time, but next week it's on. (winter is here as well. I got a big driveway with a snow bias that could turn to ice if I don't go out there).

[str]

Here's wishing a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all the people that this thread reaches.

May all your photos be winning ones.

[str]

A couple of quick notes:

I mentioned earlier that when the 1st race at Laurel is a 5 1/2 F race, bet the speed. I have seen 3 races carded as the 1st race( might be more) in the last 4 weeks and all 3 have been wire to wire winners. This really does happen often. Happened again today. Hope you are keeping an eye out for that.

The rail at Aqueduct looks great today. Remember, the worse the horses are, the more the track wil help or hinder them. Stay inside with your plays unless it changes drastically which is doubtful.

Over graded for the fast approaching storm in all probability.

One of the perks to winter racing.

Good luck guys.

[Dark Horse]

Happy New Year to you, str.

Had been planning to study the winter-based track biases, but realized I'm mostly a West Coaster. Santa Anita (+Del Mar) covers so much of the year that I'd be crazy not to build my calendar around that. I don't want to spread myself too thin over the different tracks (and am not really attracted to NY). Goal is to set up a two or three track approach, year-round, where I look daily for 'big' value at track 1 first. If nothing there, move to track 2; if nothing there, move to track 3. (big value is the stuff that jumps off the page). For example, the overlapping winter meets at Santa Anita, Gulfstream, and Laurel. Or the summer meets at Del Mar and Saratoga. Anyway, if you have any pointers or tips about setting up a practical year round calendar, I'm all ears.

[str]

Happy New Year to you, str.

Had been planning to study the winter-based track biases, but realized I'm mostly a West Coaster. Santa Anita (+Del Mar) covers so much of the year that I'd be crazy not to build my calendar around that. I don't want to spread myself too thin over the different tracks (and am not really attracted to NY). Goal is to set up a two or three track approach, year-round, where I look daily for 'big' value at track 1 first. If nothing there, move to track 2; if nothing there, move to track 3. (big value is the stuff that jumps off the page). For example, the overlapping winter meets at Santa Anita, Gulfstream, and Laurel. Or the summer meets at Del Mar and Saratoga. Anyway, if you have any pointers or tips about setting up a practical year round calendar, I'm all ears.

I understand your logic. Seems to make sense. I do like the fact that you will pay attention to the same circuit or circuits all year.

I really can not speak to the west coast races because , as I have stated before, I never really paid much attention to them. I am sure that some biases will exist . Hopefully more so than the speed ,speed, speed that I typically see. That's probably unfair but my disdain for California racing goes waaaaay back. Kind of like a grudge. Not sure anymore why I don't like it. I'll have to work on that. Lol.

Yes, you will give up some winter time biases at Aqueduct and Laurel but if you don't really care for a certain place for whatever reason, trying to play there is difficult. So much of playing the horses is mental. The last thing that you want to do is to fight the vibes if you know what I mean.

As to setting it up, my suggestion is to make it what YOU are comfortable with. I have written in here how important it is to watch replays and take notes. Well, all successful players don't do it all the same way. I have found what works for me. Others, such as Mike for instance, says he doesn't watch replays much and relies on figures to help with that. So who is right? We both are. That works for him, and my style worked for me when I was active in it. Still others, and there are plenty of them in this sub forum, do it there way and are successful as well. It's each persons style, and it works for them.

So the bottom line is, there is more than one correct way to do this. Find your niche and comfort level and trust it. That is not to say don't tweak it if necessary. Times change, information changes, and we change. Know that going in and keep an open mind and things will be fine.

My best advice to you and anyone else other than what I just said, is to never, ever, think you know it all or there is nothing left to learn. Having worked in horse racing for as long as I did I met many really high profile owners from all over the world and just about all walks of life as well as many very successful trainers and of course, track owners or operators. Wanting to engage in conversation with these people any time I could, I would always leave the door open for them to expound on their experiences when the opportunity arose. And I can't begin to tell you how many of these people , many that you would recognize the name if I mentioned them, would all pretty much say the same thing. Things like, never stop learning, you are either going up the mountain or you are going down the mountain, if you stand still long enough, the noise you hear is everyone else rushing past you, and many more , all with the same basic themes, that being , work hard and never stop learning.

I feel so blessed that I have met so many different people over the years. Some filthy rich, others not so much, but none the less intelligent, kind, outgoing, and most of all, successful at whatever it was they did.

I hope that helps. Keep me posted.

Happy New Year everybody.

[Dark Horse]

Great advice. Yeah, it's a comfort level with the tracks (and jockeys). Santa Anita and Del Mar work well for me. Hollywood not so much. No idea why. I would like to fit in one or two tracks for the bad weather biases, but -strangely- am somewhat hesitant to step outside of the tracks that are starting to feel like home. Then again, it would be stupid not to take advantage of your Laurel expertise. That answers that. lol I'll start by watching races and get a feel for Laurel.

http://www.laurelpark.com/race-info/streaming-video

[harthebar]

STR ,HOW WAS YOUR HOLIDAYS ........DOUBLE BOUNCTIOUS HERE..........HA HA THAT MAKES US 3RD COUSINS TWICE REMOVED...LOL REMEMBER THAT 2 YEAR OLD I THOUGHT HE WOULD BE A SUPER HORSE ..BEFORE HE EVEN RAN THE RACE ....,HIS FIRST RACE.....THEN AFTER I THOUGHT HE WAS A SOLID 2 YEAR OLD.....WELL HE IS RUNNING AGAIN THIS SATURDAY ,IF YOU DONT MIND ,,,,GIVE ME YOUR THOUGHTS AFTER THE RACE......
I DONT THINK HE
CAN RUN IN THE DERBY IF IT DID GET TO THAT.......BUT IT WOULD BE NICE TO SAY I SAW HIM WHEN HE RAN HIS FIRST RACE...HE DID GET 2ND TO SHANGHAI BOBBY.....,

Goldencents is entered to run on January 5, 2013, at SANTA ANITA PARK.

Your comments for this horse were:monsterkrigger delmar

Full Entries for Race

Overnight

Race: 3 - 1:31 PM

STAKES

Sham S. - Grade: 3

Purse: $ 100,000. For Three-year-olds . By Subscription Of $100 Each To Accompany The Nomination Closed With 0. $1,500 Additional To Start, With $100,000 Guaranteed. The Winner To Receive $60,000 Plus 10 Kentucky Derby Points, $20,000 To Second, $12,000 To Third, $6,000 To fourth and $2,000 to fifth. 123 lbs. Non-winners of a Graded I or Grade II Stakes at One Mile or Over, allowed 3 lbs. Non-winners of a Graded Stake at One Mile or Over , 5 lbs. *Early Bird nominees to the 2013 Santa Anita Derby (Closing Date: December 22, 2012) are automatically eligible to the Sham Stakes with all fees waived. A trophy will be presented to the owner of the winner. One Mile.

PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer
2	Goldencents	3/C	L	Kevin Krigger	120	Doug F. O'Neill

[harthebar]

I always read everything you write,,your knowlege is like the nile river ...always branches out ...in many directions filling us with it.............i.ve learned so much from you......i see why my aunt and you were friends......get it.....anyway i was just reading your post about pools ....i understand them .....but last saturday......if you look at my post on best play of the day ...you will see a ticket.......but anyway......the 10 in my ticket won paid 18.60 next race the 4 won paid 101.60 the double paid 300.60........i just need your thought on that......dont brreak my wagons when you see the ticket.........i never played the double .....the pay out got my attention..

[harthebar]

Str ,my horse won .goldenscents today......
Just talking with the guys....question....how old are horses when they first run on a track ... To see how good they are....or to try to sell them.this horse is born in march and was purchased for 34000 .and was charged 7500 for stud fee...what would you look for when. Buying a horse ..besides breeding...its like a shot in the dark....and i mmean working out by there real age...when can they handle the track with rider.

Off the subject .did you ever see a movie called boots Malone.

[str]

STR ,HOW WAS YOUR HOLIDAYS ........DOUBLE BOUNCTIOUS HERE..........HA HA THAT MAKES US 3RD COUSINS TWICE REMOVED...LOL REMEMBER THAT 2 YEAR OLD I THOUGHT HE WOULD BE A SUPER HORSE ..BEFORE HE EVEN RAN THE RACE ....,HIS FIRST RACE.....THEN AFTER I THOUGHT HE WAS A SOLID 2 YEAR OLD.....WELL HE IS RUNNING AGAIN THIS SATURDAY ,IF YOU DONT MIND ,,,,GIVE ME YOUR THOUGHTS AFTER THE RACE......
I DONT THINK HE
CAN RUN IN THE DERBY IF IT DID GET TO THAT.......BUT IT WOULD BE NICE TO SAY I SAW HIM WHEN HE RAN HIS FIRST RACE...HE DID GET 2ND TO SHANGHAI BOBBY.....,

Goldencents is entered to run on January 5, 2013, at SANTA ANITA PARK.

Your comments for this horse were:monsterkrigger delmar

Full Entries for Race

Overnight

Race: 3 - 1:31 PM

STAKES

Sham S. - Grade: 3

Purse: $ 100,000. For Three-year-olds . By Subscription Of $100 Each To Accompany The Nomination Closed With 0. $1,500 Additional To Start, With $100,000 Guaranteed. The Winner To Receive $60,000 Plus 10 Kentucky Derby Points, $20,000 To Second, $12,000 To Third, $6,000 To fourth and $2,000 to fifth. 123 lbs. Non-winners of a Graded I or Grade II Stakes at One Mile or Over, allowed 3 lbs. Non-winners of a Graded Stake at One Mile or Over , 5 lbs. *Early Bird nominees to the 2013 Santa Anita Derby (Closing Date: December 22, 2012) are automatically eligible to the Sham Stakes with all fees waived. A trophy will be presented to the owner of the winner. One Mile.

PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer
2	Goldencents	3/C	L	Kevin Krigger	120	Doug F. O'Neill

Sorry for the delayed response. I will indeed take a look at the replay and tell you what I see. This is the same horse that I talked to you about in this thread a month or 2 ago right. I remember saying that he had a ton of ability to run the way he did and still finish 2nd to Shanghai Bobby. He was not willing to rate at the time and simply ran as fast and as hard as he could in that race, for as long as he could. Typically, a horse that runs in that fashion falters and finishes off the board. Him running 2nd that day was a solid performance IMO. All in all, it was a great effort to basically run off and still finish 2nd. Hopefully, he is starting to relax as he matures.

I will take a look and let you know.

[Dark Horse]

str, if possible could you also comment on the level of competition in that race?

[harthebar]

yes indeed that is the same horse......his first start he was listed as 10-1 i saw his odds at 2-1 it got my attention,i watched him warm up and he just looked like a great horse to me.....after the race ...i was really really impressed,

Sorry for the delayed response. I will indeed take a look at the replay and tell you what I see. This is the same horse that I talked to you about in this thread a month or 2 ago right. I remember saying that he had a ton of ability to run the way he did and still finish 2nd to Shanghai Bobby. He was not willing to rate at the time and simply ran as fast and as hard as he could in that race, for as long as he could. Typically, a horse that runs in that fashion falters and finishes off the board. Him running 2nd that day was a solid performance IMO. All in all, it was a great effort to basically run off and still finish 2nd. Hopefully, he is starting to relax as he matures.

I will take a look and let you know.

[str]

I always read everything you write,,your knowlege is like the nile river ...always branches out ...in many directions filling us with it.............i.ve learned so much from you......i see why my aunt and you were friends......get it.....anyway i was just reading your post about pools ....i understand them .....but last saturday......if you look at my post on best play of the day ...you will see a ticket.......but anyway......the 10 in my ticket won paid 18.60 next race the 4 won paid 101.60 the double paid 300.60........i just need your thought on that......dont brreak my wagons when you see the ticket.........i never played the double .....the pay out got my attention..

Thanks so much. It is my pleasure.

As for the crazy payoff, I just don't know . Being a Gulfstream double, the pool I assume was large enough to not be the problem. So maybe the horse that paid 18.00 or the horse that paid 100.00 were program picks, popular jocks or trainers of some sort?? I don't have any answers but do rest assured that the track security that monitors payouts checked the whereabouts and time stamps of winning tickets purchased and looked into any possible corruption. That part of it is never announced to the public unless inconsistencies in betting patterns are noticed but it is investigated any time something like this happens. If there was anything to it , it will be further investigated. At the end of the day, it is not rocket science to uncover that for instance, 18 out of 20 tickets were sold at the same time and at the same window or something like that. If there is anything to it, we will find out. Having said that, if I hit that double and that is all it paid, I would have been really upset.
On another note, seeing possible payoffs in the double pool where a 50 - 1 shot is lets say the 4th lowest payoff in the double pool lets players know that the combination was over bet. Too me, that is something that every player should at least glance at when the info is available. It takes less than a minute but you might find a huge discrepancy, like this one, that could put you on a 100.00 horse, at least as a small saver.

[str]

str, if possible could you also comment on the level of competition in that race?

I did not see the PPs but did see that he was 4-5 in the program. I also saw 2 Baffert horses were 3-1 and the others much higher. I am assuming from the morning line that there was not that much in the race.

[str]

yes indeed that is the same horse......his first start he was listed as 10-1 i saw his odds at 2-1 it got my attention,i watched him warm up and he just looked like a great horse to me.....after the race ...i was really really impressed,

As a huge favorite and getting an absolutely perfect trip, I was not very impressed with the way he ran through the stretch. Too me, if you are 2-5 and get a dream trip, you are supposed to be able to win easily. That was not the case in this race. The jock rode him left handed ( I have explained that way back in this thread) and got after him pretty good . Once he switched to right handed , the horse did pull away late but it was a driving win. He did indeed rate with at least a thought of relaxing , so it is better than when he ran 2nd to Shanghai Bobby from a relax point of view but he will need to do much more than that from hear out in that department . As for the exact effort, he clearly ran harder and exerted more effort running 2nd than he did in this one. Maybe he is gaining a tendency to loaf when he makes the lead, I am not sure, but there was no authority to the way he won. He has much to learn to improve enough at this point. That is not at all impossible, but he does have plenty of work to do.

[str]

Str ,my horse won .goldenscents today......
Just talking with the guys....question....how old are horses when they first run on a track ... To see how good they are....or to try to sell them.this horse is born in march and was purchased for 34000 .and was charged 7500 for stud fee...what would you look for when. Buying a horse ..besides breeding...its like a shot in the dark....and i mmean working out by there real age...when can they handle the track with rider.

Off the subject .did you ever see a movie called boots Malone.

.question....how old are horses when they first run on a track ... To see how good they are....or to try to sell them.

A. Depending on when the 1st baby race is carded at each track, the track usually allows 2 year olds on the grounds about 90 days prior. Horses are broken to the saddle and learn how to be ridden late in there one year old year or just when they turn two. If you wait to long, they can be much harder to break and teach due to strength and size. Can't start too early though. So around September or October of their yearling year, or at about 18 months old. This is done at a farm preferably with a track and rails. They need to learn virtually everything. Just like people. Although not fail proof, a lot can be learned by watching the horse prior to that. Again, just like people. Who is the leader of the pack? Who is the timid one? Who is the screw off, who is the quick learner. All of this can be seen somewhere between birth and 18 months.
Pedigree is obviously huge, but conformation flaws such as crooked legs, toes in, toes out, too straight legged, club feet, sway back, sickle hocked, scrawny neck, no shoulder, no ass, etc. all can help determine a horses future as well. But you can gain all this info and still be wrong. Again, just like people. That is why very expensive horses can sometimes be duds and cheap ones can become legends. It is all a guessing game, yes an educated one, but still a guess.
The price info tells you which sale the horse was purchased out of. Keenland, Timonium, Ocala, Saratoga, etc. There are a ton of them. The date of sale tells you if the horse was sold as a weanling, yearling, or 2 year old. The older they are, the more they typically cost.

Trainers and owners go to these sales and tire kick and try to find all the info they can about these horses. I could go on forever explaining all that goes into that. Believe me, it is a game within a game at the sales rings and you better wear your big boy pants when you walk in there. I will leave it at that. Lol.

Hope I answered all the questions.

[harthebar]

yes indeed ,the Nile has spoken,thank you,i will think of some more...just think of me as a yearling....lol

[harthebar]

mr.Nile ,,,,,,,there is a cheap little claimer ive been following over the last few months......running in your turf tomorrow laurel race 8 billy chapel.....

[harthebar]

str, i sent you a pm

[Dark Horse]

str, in the same race do you see anything that suggests #4 Dry Summer doesn't like the racing surface?

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci.../3/sham-s-gr-3


I'm taking a few steps back to look at the concept of the racing surface. A couple of questions to start with.

If a horse dislikes the racing surface, is that pretty much game over for the race? In other words, could a horse be in great shape and win on that day on almost any surface, yet give a flat performance on a surface he doesn't like? And if it's not that dramatic, roughly how much (in percentage points) can a disliked surface take off the performance?

The other question is about bias. When the track has a rail bias, wouldn't it be more up to the jockey than the horse to take it to the bank? If the jockey has a good read on the race, wouldn't that increase the effect of any type of bias, and vice versa?

One more...
You mentioned previously that a horse may take shorter strides if he doesn't like the mud. Is dislike for other surfaces also expressed through shorter strides, or would you look for something else?

[harthebar]

str you can explain it.

[Dark Horse]

Sorry to add it on here, but this race is off tomorrow so ...

Greeley Awesome was entered in the Sham Stakes this last weekend (won by Goldencents), but was scratched and is now entered in the first race on Thursday. What is the thought pattern behind that?

[str]

Sorry to add it on here, but this race is off tomorrow so ...

Greeley Awesome was entered in the Sham Stakes this last weekend (won by Goldencents), but was scratched and is now entered in the first race on Thursday. What is the thought pattern behind that?

Without a form or any understanding of the horses quality or style ,let me ask a couple of questions first. Is this horse a real stakes horse? Or, is he real speedy and the trainer wanted to have a rabbit to help teach his horse to rate somewhat? Or, was Goldencents also eligible for this race ( doubtful). Also, did they call for an off track by chance last week when Goldencents ran? It came up dry but am wondering. I will explain my thoughts after you respond so you can see my way of looking at this.
Thanks.