[JakeLc]

You probably already know but in case you didn't Larry Saumell died a couple of days ago

[str]

You probably already know but in case you didn't Larry Saumell died a couple of days ago

Thank you Jake.
I got the call yesterday morning. I was stunned. I went to Laurel and saw a lot of friends last Christmas. First time back in many years. I saw his mom and brother and seemingly missed him by about 1/2 an hour. Had not seen him in years. I was planning on going back around Christmas to see everyone again. When I saw his mom again this spring on Derby day,( she works admissions), I asked about him and his mom said he was doing well but was out of town. I thought that I would just see him soon enough. For that I feel terrible. He had started to settle in as a jocks agent at Laurel. I was really looking forward to seeing him. Got the word last night that there will be a memorial service next Tuesday at Laurel @ 11 AM for him. I will be there for sure.
When I heard the news I was sick. Pretty much ended my day right there. Last night I went through my win pictures( only missing one) and counted up our wins together. I counted 85. Would trade them all for a chance to say good bye.
He was one of my absolute favorite riders. A total team player with brass balls. He fought through many nagging injuries throughout his career. Especially his shoulder. It always seemed to flair up. He was a great judge of pace and if you ever saw him ride, nobody drew out the stick with more flair than he did. He looked like he was pulling a Sabre out of it's case.
When I get one of my kids over here I will get them to help me post a short clip of some video I have of him riding Kindest Cut. It was on the local news and I taped it. Robin Burns making the call. It maybe shows the last 1/8th of a mile but I really want to post it. ( Don't know how but they will help me).
I will find out more in the coming days as to what happened.The guy that called me said he had talked with him on Saturday after the races and he was seemingly fine. For right now though, I am just filled with sadness. He was a dear friend from my past. I will never forget him as long as I live.
Thanks for making sure I knew Jake. I really appreciate it.

[JakeLc]

You're welcome. I was in a hurry when I posted and now when I look back at what I posted it might of come off as sort of callous. My condolences

[Dark Horse]

Sorry to hear you lost a friend, str. Best of luck in the days ahead.

[str]

You're welcome. I was in a hurry when I posted and now when I look back at what I posted it might of come off as sort of callous. My condolences

Did not take it that way at all.

[str]

O.K. here goes.
Sorry that the video is a bit choppy. A 25 year old tape and a lot of editing. For those that really follow along in this thread, the race where we wins by 5 lengths is Jimmy Edwards subbing for Larry. You will notice the similarities in the two riders arm action as well as their seats.
It was really good to go to the memorial service on Tuesday. It really did let me find closure. Larry's brother Frankie did his usual rock solid job of being the glue that holds the family together and his mom and son are hanging in as well as can be expected
So many people were there, it was standing room only. That's a tribute to the kind of guy that Larry was. If you knew him, you had to like him. Everything he did , he did with passion. Generous to a fault. As I said earlier, I will never forget him and consider myself lucky to have known him and luckier still, to be able to say that he was a dear friend.
Please feel free to ask any questions from here on.

[Dark Horse]

Good stuff. What do you remember the most about training Kindest Cut? What made him suddenly unbeatable?

[str]

Good stuff. What do you remember the most about training Kindest Cut? What made him suddenly unbeatable?

Remember most?
How happy he was once he won . Not the first race but after he won for the second or third time he really came alive. He put on weight, his personality came out, it was like he was reborn. He enjoyed winning so much. There are about 8 minutes of tape from those interviews and I could have tried to show more but I quit while I was ahead. Really wanted to get at least something out there.
What made him unbeatable?
All of that started with him. Once he got in to it, he would just bear down . I guess he just refused to lose. On the day that he did lose, Crafty Exchange ( Grey horse that gallops by him well past the wire) basically cooked him and himself. At a 1 1/8th and Crafty inside, they went 46 and change 1:10 4/5 for 3/4s and it was just to much. Larry and I knew Crafty E. very well having claimed him a few times and winning 5 races with him . He was a all or nothing type speed horse. So if he got the lead to the 3/8s pole he would win. If pressured and drawn even in his right eye before the 3/8s pole he would quit. Larry knew that we could not let him go or we could not beat him. If he tried to out run him it was suicide. So he did all he could do , which was to stay within a length and corral him around the far turn. It worked in that Crafty E. quit and Cut got the lead but the hot fractions just cooked him and he did not have enough left to fight off the two closers.
The wear and tear of repeated nice efforts also caught up to Kindest Cut. Realistically, he only had one or two more solid efforts in him before he was going to tale somewhat. I would have had to drop him off wins even further down if it kept going to try and offset any downturn. And of course I would have, but as you know, he was claimed that day.
I am looking to get the PPs for the Breeders Cup races today and might have a few questions for you guys once I see them. I barely followed the big races so I might turn the tables on some of you if you don't mind.
This thread has rekindled an interest for me and to those of you that asked questions and even those that did not but visited the thread, I want to thank you for your interest and kind words.
It inspired me to get off my butt and go to Saratoga this summer to see a close friend and spend a few days on the backside. I proceeded to run in to about 100 more friends that I have not seen in years. Even got in to a win picture with Oil Can Boyd and Mickey Rivers when my friend won with a firster. It was great!
So thanks again to all of you that follow along.
On to the Breeders Cup!

[Dark Horse]

Breeders Cup question for you...

So You Think is coming in without the stats US players are used to. Trying to get a feel for his strengths and weaknesses. What does your trainer's eye tell you about this horse? Is he confident, or is he looking around a bit too much? He's clearly checking out the competition early in the race, but in the stretch he also seems to be looking back to see who might catch up. Creates the impression that his body is going forward, but his mind is looking backward. Would you see that as normal/within acceptable limits or as a sign of being distracted/intimidated by competition (since he didn't really respond to the late challenge)?




FWIW, just noticed he's listed with 'Blinkers On' for the Classic. Main reason for this question is to get a feel for how strong this horse may be mentally, because he'll be facing some stiff competition in the Breeders Cup.

[str]

Breeders Cup question for you...

So You Think is coming in without the stats US players are used to. Trying to get a feel for his strengths and weaknesses. What does your trainer's eye tell you about this horse? Is he confident, or is he looking around a bit too much? He's clearly checking out the competition early in the race, but in the stretch he also seems to be looking back to see who might catch up. Creates the impression that his body is going forward, but his mind is looking backward. Would you see that as normal/within acceptable limits or as a sign of being distracted/intimidated by competition (since he didn't really respond to the late challenge)?




FWIW, just noticed he's listed with 'Blinkers On' for the Classic. Main reason for this question is to get a feel for how strong this horse may be mentally, because he'll be facing some stiff competition in the Breeders Cup.

He is extremely confident. He breaks great, settles eagerly, and explodes when asked. He is a really nice horse! I watched both races in your thread. Two things caught my eye. Yes, he waits on horses once he gets the lead, but... in the race he won, I said to myself at the 1/8th pole when Snow Fairy came to him that they could have gone around again and Snow Fairy was NOT getting by him. He dug in well but got beat in the race you have above. I did not like the fact that he was on the left lead in that race and as he was worn down a switch of leads probably would have helped.
He waits on horses once he makes the lead and the blinkers will probably help allow him to further his gap if he can run to the lead in the Classic once they turn for home before he loafs a bit. But, while blinkers can make for more focus with some horses, sometimes they only slightly help if at all.Others become rank with them. They are not fool proof.
As good as he is, and he is really good, if he starts loafing, chances are someone will nail him. This field is just too talented to screw around and win. Don't know how you throw him off of supers, but at 5-1 I'm not sure he is a win play either. An awful lot of question marks with this one. I just printed out both days of the B.C. and will be reading them all I can. Have no feel at all for the race itself. I will need to set it up before really speaking to it. He IS mentally fine. No problem there. He just loafs a bit on the lead. That is probably due to the fact that in most of his races, he has been so dominant that he could without it being a problem.
Hope that helps for now.
P.S. seems like he will want to lay 4th or 5th if given a choice but again, I have not looked at the others yet.
Let's talk tomorrow.

[Dark Horse]

Thanks for the insight. Wish I knew more of his speed, but those overseas records aren't much help. My impression was that he explodes when asked, but only once. Like you say, maybe he's won so easy that he never needed a second burst.

[str]

After looking through the Classic for the first time, I do not see anyone inside of So You Think that should outrun him. Looks like Game on Dude,Uncle Mo, and To Honor and Serve should show early speed. That has So You Think on the rail behind those 3 horses. The question then becomes, is there a break back to Stay Thirsty and Havre de Grace? I realize that Stay Thirsty could be closer up early but why would Pletcher draw up a plan that would have Thirsty and Uncle Mo so close so early? Doesn't make sense does it?
But the real question and probably the most important question is: Will Uncle Mo blow to the front and outrun or duel with Game On Dude or will he be content to sit quietly early on and give Mo the chance to get the 1 1/4 by slowing it down , even if it means letting Game On Dude set the lead by a length or so.
The answer to the pace question dictates which direction a gambler goes. If you think the pace will be hot, one should consider the deeper closers that also come with a nice price such as Flat Out, ( although he could run very well with moderate early fractions),Drosslemeyer, Ice Box and Headache. If you think the pace might be reasonable early, you probably look mid pack towards Flat Out( again), and the stalkers,So You Think, Stay Thirsty and Havre de Grace
The pace will dictate the outcome, but no shock there, it almost always does.

Something to think about: If Uncle Mo is not quite fit enough and/or if the distance is an issue, don't you think it would be wise to not gun early and instead try to get comfortable towards the front but not going all out to get the front so as to have a legit chance from the 3/8s pole? I would think yes.
If indeed the answer IS yes, doesn't this give Game On Dude a chance to turn for home with a laboring Uncle Mo near him and others coming but not on him yet?
Or does Bill Mott send To Honor And Serve to assure a hot pace and give Drosselmeyer his best shot?

[str]

The Juvenile Filly on Friday:

The whole world is on My Miss Aurelia. And while she is certainly a very nice filly, I don't get it.
8/14 she runs 6 1/2 at the Spa.
Last 1/16th in 7 . Beyer = 91
Grace Hall runs (9/4 at the Spa.
Last 1/8th in 12 3/5s. Beyer = 85
She runs 1mile 87-13 track variant Beyer = 96
Grace Hall runs 1 70yds. 89-14 track variant Beyer = 78

This means that Grace Hall would have had to break the track record to earn the same Beyer as My Miss Aurelia did going wire to wire on the rail in a ONE TURN race.
Even the 4 horse Miss Netta earned a higher Beyer than Grace Hall and she got left and well beaten.

This is why I put NO stock in Andy,s #s.

[Dark Horse]

Edit - Had a question if the dusk hour, when nature quiets down and the activity of day makes way for the stillness of night, is 'programmed' into horses to the point where they may not give their best performance. But then I saw the whip of the jockey riding Havre de Grace almost hitting Flat Out in the head, and I realized I was on the wrong track. lol

[str]

Edit - Had a question if the dusk hour, when nature quiets down and the activity of day makes way for the stillness of night, is 'programmed' into horses to the point where they may not give their best performance. But then I saw the whip of the jockey riding Havre de Grace almost hitting Flat Out in the head, and I realized I was on the wrong track. lol

You answered your own question accurately. Adrenaline kicks in to all involved. I will never forget driving up to the Meadowlands or Penn. Nat. for a 9:30 pm race after starting the day at 5:30 AM. If you won ,it was a nice ride home, but running poorly and getting back home in time for 2-3 hours of sleep and another day of work was tough.
The video replay of Flat Out will allow plenty of you to identify something that happens more often than you would think but is not noticed by most. You saw the horse/rider duck or avoid Ramon's stick on Havre de Grace and yes , that was correct, but... the reason Flat Out found himself in that position is because Flat Out's rider had to shift his weight aggressively to get him to switch to his right lead. You will notice Flat Out's rider do this about one second before he reacts to Ramon's whip on Havre de Grace. The over shifting of weight DOES get Flat Out to switch leads to his right leg, but it makes Flat Out lose balance momentarily and as a result, instead of moving slightly out when switching, he moves in a few feet. With Flat Out's rider riding left handed ( nothing wrong with that) at the time , it left him no stick room for himself and it put him in harms way of Ramon's stick. As a result, if there was a culprit within that( and there really was not), it would have been Flat Out not Ramon( riding Havre de Grace).
This subtlety can be used as an excuse if people choose to , but honestly, what I saw was a group of horses trying to sustain a last burst and the only two that could were Drosselmeyer and Game On Dude.
Flat Out ran ok and boy did he get a perfect trip to the 1/4 pole. I did not see any viable excuse IMO.
Hope you can see what I saw on the replay. If you have trouble , please let me know.
The race is in the next post.
1:57 of the video is when the jock shifts his weight to get Flat Out to switch leads.

[str]

[Dark Horse]

I hadn't seen that shifting of weight by Solis to make Flat Out shift his lead leg. Didn't know they did this in the stretch as well. Good to have the correct reason for the mishap. Not to be used as excuse. The correct interpretation is important with an eye on future races. Now it makes sense going forward. Thanks.

[str]

I hadn't seen that shifting of weight by Solis to make Flat Out shift his lead leg. Didn't know they did this in the stretch as well. Good to have the correct reason for the mishap. Not to be used as excuse. The correct interpretation is important with an eye on future races. Now it makes sense going forward. Thanks.

The optimum scenario is when the horse starts off on there right lead from the gate, switches to it's left going into the turn , then switches back to there right once they straighten away for home.This holds true for one turn races as well as two or more, turn races. That is how they are taught as babies and it gives them the best chance to display there peak performance.

[unusialsusp5]

str overanalyzing everything again. check the wind at pimlico, check to see how the jockey rides a horse, check this, check that, you are a hack str and know nothing about betting horses.

[Dark Horse]

@ unusialsups5. Go Away Dude is a sure winner for you.

[unusialsusp5]

go ahead and listen to this washed up groom from the 70's who probably thinks they're going to re-open bowie. his info is useless to the modern day bettor. no one could go through all the manifestations that he suggests to pick winners. whether you are a horizontal or vertical bettor or both, learn how to structure your wagers according to value rather that listen to this crap about wind, rain or how a jockey holds his reins or check for bowed tendons in the post parade. insipid waste of time to pay any attention to this clown.

[str]

go ahead and listen to this washed up groom from the 70's who probably thinks they're going to re-open bowie. his info is useless to the modern day bettor. no one could go through all the manifestations that he suggests to pick winners. whether you are a horizontal or vertical bettor or both, learn how to structure your wagers according to value rather that listen to this crap about wind, rain or how a jockey holds his reins or check for bowed tendons in the post parade. insipid waste of time to pay any attention to this clown.

SBR created this sub forum to share ideas and strategies along with information pertaining to horse racing.
Instead of posting empty baseless insults towards myself, Dark Horse, Cecil, Jake, as well as countless others , why don't you start your own thread. By doing so,we can all be enlightened as to the ins and outs of how you approach handicapping as well as what your take is on how races unfold. Sharing insights is what helps all of us to become not only smarter bettors but also makes us more aware of what really happened in any given situation.
The purpose of this thread as listed in #1 within it, is to answer any questions pertaining to horse racing.
Having other threads to digest can only enhance the amount of information available to those that seek it.
I think that you sharing your experiences and knowledge through your own thread will be a welcome addition to SBR.
The game is so ever changing and complex that we all crave a better understanding of it. I sure do hope that you consider doing so.

[unusialsusp5]

ok, i get it. but every race is different and there is no time to overanalyze for the novice bettor. all this, well this happened because so and so did this, and this jockey did that, and the temperature wasn't condusive today, and my horse cut off by another, and the wind was blowing after the 7th race. what this has to do with a race that's being run today when none of the same factors prevail is hard to understand. all this is in the drf pp's and this dark horse guy (who is broke by the way) wants to create his own speed ratings and keep records on 50 horses. i'm sure you know the average t-bred horse only has 13 races in him. that's the median average, some run more, but many run less. see uncle mo(that stiff only ran 5 times). i don't know if you ever watched harvey pack about 25 years ago on his nyra show. at the end of the show he threw the program away on air, because he knew it didn't matter what happened today, only a fresh start tomorrow mattered. all you need is a fresh copy of the drf and pockets full of money. you were a trainer chasing purses and all that knowledge pertaining to keeping a horse fit and ready is why i came down so hard on you. it really doesn't translate into betting which is what this forum is. not re-hashing prior races.

[str]

ok, i get it. but every race is different and there is no time to overanalyze for the novice bettor. all this, well this happened because so and so did this, and this jockey did that, and the temperature wasn't condusive today, and my horse cut off by another, and the wind was blowing after the 7th race. what this has to do with a race that's being run today when none of the same factors prevail is hard to understand. all this is in the drf pp's and this dark horse guy (who is broke by the way) wants to create his own speed ratings and keep records on 50 horses. i'm sure you know the average t-bred horse only has 13 races in him. that's the median average, some run more, but many run less. see uncle mo(that stiff only ran 5 times). i don't know if you ever watched harvey pack about 25 years ago on his nyra show. at the end of the show he threw the program away on air, because he knew it didn't matter what happened today, only a fresh start tomorrow mattered. all you need is a fresh copy of the drf and pockets full of money. you were a trainer chasing purses and all that knowledge pertaining to keeping a horse fit and ready is why i came down so hard on you. it really doesn't translate into betting which is what this forum is. not re-hashing prior races.

What I have done is what I said that I would be happy to do from the beginning which was to answer any questions that anyone had.
You have called me about every name in the book. Fraud, hack, unemployed, clown, idiot, etc.and still do. Honestly, having seen some of the posts in other forums from guys like Lemart and such, I wasn't all that surprised at first, but you have continued to bash me as well as others and put words in my mouth to make your argument that you admit is unjustified , sound all the better. All I ever said about the wind is that if it is a very high wind and the flag was standing straight out( post 211), it is worth noting and why. You have taken that and reworked it many times over. That's not fair. Obviously, this would not be for the novice bettor but at the same time, it might help a novice understand that there is a little more to the game than picking the leading rider.
You also said that any trainer worth his salt would not be betting on races all the time. Other than King Leatherbury who never saw a race he didn't want to bet, I was in agreement with you. If trainers are betting every race every day, chances are they are ignoring part of what they should be doing. But it is hard to agree and converse with someone that is smashing you to bits with every post.
As for Dark Horse( and you don't know if he is broke or filthy rich and that doesn't matter either way does it?), I really appreciate his questions as well as his enthusiasm towards the game. He wants to learn parts of the game that help him better understand what he is watching. He can then realize that there was no excuse for Flat Out instead of thinking that there was an excuse and therefore having bad info. You cant fault anyone for wanting to learn can you?
As I said recently, I owe many thanks to those that have allowed me to talk about racing after leaving the game 10 years ago. I have really enjoyed it and I think others have as well.
So listen, no more insults and let's try to help some of these guys and please, if I ever say something that you don't agree with, I welcome your response albeit without the spice. I am not beyond learning anything from anyone.
Oh and by the way and only because you brought it up, when I retired from racing I started up a custom home building business. And although there are days that I wish that I was unemployed, I am not. Do love weekends off after 30 years of never having them. I think that alone would keep me from ever going back.
Thanks for listening.

[unusialsusp5]

ok, i've had my fun. no more bashing you. you have legitimate insights for students of the sport. i am really sorry. i guess i don't like people especially myself. when someone ridiculed me because i said the kentucky derby was a bad betting race because it had too many horses and they were all shippers with good form, i lost it. i feel that the breeders cup races, although entertaining is not necessarily a good betting proposition and after last saturday betting turmoil (i don't know anyone who cashed) seemed to bear that out. i am a harvey pack believer and implement many of his theories which go against the grain of most. (especially in regards to the pik6 carryover). unfortunately, i do not have the patience and discipline to follow my own system (which is sound but i'm sure no one is interested in). no more posting for me. if someone wants my insight pm me, i can help.

[str]

ok, i've had my fun. no more bashing you. you have legitimate insights for students of the sport. i am really sorry. i guess i don't like people especially myself. when someone ridiculed me because i said the kentucky derby was a bad betting race because it had too many horses and they were all shippers with good form, i lost it. i feel that the breeders cup races, although entertaining is not necessarily a good betting proposition and after last saturday betting turmoil (i don't know anyone who cashed) seemed to bear that out. i am a harvey pack believer and implement many of his theories which go against the grain of most. (especially in regards to the pik6 carryover). unfortunately, i do not have the patience and discipline to follow my own system (which is sound but i'm sure no one is interested in). no more posting for me. if someone wants my insight pm me, i can help.

I do not know Harvey Pack's theories and did not see his show but I do know that he was a legend within the game. If you ever feel like posting some of his stuff and/or the things you use I know I would read it. I hope you do.
Your Derby and Breeders Cup betting comments I think are valid. And while some may not agree because of the huge potential payouts and the large handle, I think I see your point. There is no " only one way" to do this stuff and who's to say which is right or wrong. Too me, right or wrong is whatever works for each of us, until it doesn't anymore.
Think about posting it sometime.
Best of Luck.

[unusialsusp5]

i find it hard to believe your are so civil to me after the abuse i heaped upon you. i had no reason to be so mean spirited. naturally everyone wants to bet the derby and breeders cup and everyone should. there is value galore, but zeroing in on it is difficult and that's all i meant. it was misconstrued by some that i said it shouldn't be played, but of course we all do. sometimes you have to read between the lines on people's threads. at the risk of being controversial (i can't help it) players, remember gulfstream in dec-jan. is not much more than a glorified calder. (tread carefully) until the good horses come out in feb.

[zebra58]

ok, i've had my fun. no more bashing you. you have legitimate insights for students of the sport. i am really sorry. i guess i don't like people especially myself. when someone ridiculed me because i said the kentucky derby was a bad betting race because it had too many horses and they were all shippers with good form, i lost it. i feel that the breeders cup races, although entertaining is not necessarily a good betting proposition and after last saturday betting turmoil (i don't know anyone who cashed) seemed to bear that out. i am a harvey pack believer and implement many of his theories which go against the grain of most. (especially in regards to the pik6 carryover). unfortunately, i do not have the patience and discipline to follow my own system (which is sound but i'm sure no one is interested in). no more posting for me. if someone wants my insight pm me, i can help.

i got lucky & cashed on 2 big prices afleetagain & perfect shirl

i would like to hear your methods & insights you can post them or send p.m

[zebra58]

I do not know Harvey Pack's theories and did not see his show but I do know that he was a legend within the game. If you ever feel like posting some of his stuff and/or the things you use I know I would read it. I hope you do.
Your Derby and Breeders Cup betting comments I think are valid. And while some may not agree because of the huge potential payouts and the large handle, I think I see your point. There is no " only one way" to do this stuff and who's to say which is right or wrong. Too me, right or wrong is whatever works for each of us, until it doesn't anymore.
Think about posting it sometime.
Best of Luck.

well said str

to quote harvey pack...may the horse be with you

[Dark Horse]

str, when a horse truly gives his all for a jockey, how much of a difference can that make? Game On Dude gives Sutherland a lot, and Drosselmeyer goes all in for Smith. They're much better race horses with those jockeys. I'm just trying to get an idea of how much better. If a horse gives a jockey 2 or 3% percent more that alone could be a huge difference at the wire. Also, related, is a horse's tank empty at the end of the race, or is there a type of energy distribution that leaves something in the tank?

[str]

str, when a horse truly gives his all for a jockey, how much of a difference can that make? Game On Dude gives Sutherland a lot, and Drosselmeyer goes all in for Smith. They're much better race horses with those jockeys. I'm just trying to get an idea of how much better. If a horse gives a jockey 2 or 3% percent more that alone could be a huge difference at the wire. Also, related, is a horse's tank empty at the end of the race, or is there a type of energy distribution that leaves something in the tank?

When a horse and jockey have a bond that is working, the horse will the give maximum effort that it can, if needed, every time. That can make all the difference in the world.
Drosselmeyer seems to be a little quirky where something like this can make a lot more difference than with most horses. I only say this because his form is kind of all over the place.
Game on Dude seems like a hard trying horse that will pretty much give you all he has every time providing you ride him correctly ( let him do his thing on the lead or right with it).
I would not know how to quantify a percentage within that, but if I tried, I would have to think it would be much more than 2-3 %. I mean, win or run your eyeballs out vs. run evenly. Too me, that difference is huge.
If it is a bounce theory or regression off of a huge effort that you might be wondering about , I would not be very concerned with that. More than plenty of time between races for them to rebound unless of course your owned by the Taylor's (post 206) and you are Seattle Slew. Unbelievable!
As for the empty tank thing, it's easy to see. If the horse runs fully extended it will have given it's all. Most all of the horses that lose will have done this(but not all of them as some gave up willingly) as well as winners that were all out. Safe to say that most of those horses have " emptied their tank" in the race.
The energy distribution is simple, if allowed to run their own race, albeit a speed horse, stalker or closer, if they can run a race where they can relax at some point, and by that I mean, be comfortable and bide their time, they should be able to reserve energy during that time and have something left when called upon. If they had to burn all there energy to gain a position or maintain that position, they will in all probability be out of gas come crunch time.

[Dark Horse]

I would not know how to quantify a percentage within that, but if I tried, I would have to think it would be much more than 2-3 %. I mean, win or run your eyeballs out vs. run evenly. Too me, that difference is huge.

Thanks for the analogy. 'Eyeballs out' is a great way to put it in perspective. I didn't know that a horse would be willing to dig that deep, so the idea that they would do it for certain jockeys only is certainly helpful.

This is not about bounce or anything like that. Purely about jockey and horse, as part of the method I'm working on. I still don't know what race conditions allowed this to take over the Classic to the extent that it did, but I now know that it did. If I can find that other half of the mystery, I'll be one happy camper.

[str]

Thanks for the analogy. 'Eyeballs out' is a great way to put it in perspective. I didn't know that a horse would be willing to dig that deep, so the idea that they would do it for certain jockeys only is certainly helpful.

This is not about bounce or anything like that. Purely about jockey and horse, as part of the method I'm working on. I still don't know what race conditions allowed this to take over the Classic to the extent that it did, but I now know that it did. If I can find that other half of the mystery, I'll be one happy camper.

I just want to be sure everyone understands that a horse running MUCH better for one jockey and not the rest of them is NOT typical. Yes, it happens but probably 8 out of 10 horses will give all that they have to give for any rider providing they get even a "just ok" trip. It's getting the horse to a comfortable spot, one that the horse wants to be in if it had a choice, that is what determines how well the horse will run. At least in most cases.
When I went on and on about finding the right jock for Kindest Cut, when Larry was out, it was because the horse was running great and IF it was a horse/jockey connection of some sort, I was going to match that up as well as I possibly could. I was not positive that indeed that existed but was not about to find out after the fact that it did.
So I guess what I am saying is be careful with holding to much against a horse if it does not have the rider that it had when it ran it's best races. That MIGHT be a big thing BUT in more cases than not, it WON'T be that big a deal. If I consider that angle, I think that I would be giving a horse a plus if it had the optimum rider on it that day, but I am not so sure I would give it a minus if it did not. Not unless it had proved in the past that there was a problem within that scenario.
This type of thing can be quite evident when you see a large outfit use a stable rider for ALL of their horses. I tried that for a while having seen my mentor do this and it does have an upside to it but it also has a down side and part of that down side is that ultimately, there will be a couple of horses that under achieve due to the rider. That is just the way it is.
As I have said before in regards to Chris McCarron, he taught me many things about riding when he was in Maryland and this was one of those things he talked about. I remember him riding one of my horses a couple of times and finishing 4th or 5th or whatever and he says to me to maybe try John Adams on the horse and see what happens. Now as nice a guy a J.K. was, that was a HUGE difference in talent. But I tried it and sure enough , the horse won it's next start and paid something like 20 or 30 dollars and yes , I bet a few bucks to win, and the horse went on to run pretty well until it was claimed. He definitely got much more out of the horse than Chris did.
So to put this in perspective, no one trainer can train all of them and get the most out of them. No rider can ride all of them and get the most out of them either. Every now and then, you will see a weaker trainer claim a horse off of a very good trainer and do really well. Same with a jockey change. One style just does not work for every horse. It might for 8 out of 10 but there will always be those couple that need something different.
Lastly, do remember that Bill Mott pointed Drosselmeyer towards the most major of major races two different times. He was primed to run his best race on those two days. Mike Smith was the rider for both of those races and we all know that he won both times. So the question must be asked, was it just the rider? Or was it a brilliant job by the trainer as well? I'm really not being prejudice hear because that was my end of it. I think that it was a combination of both. I don't think that Mott " just had a good couple of days" by accident. His barn exploded those two days and he deserves a ton of credit for what his horses accomplished IMO.
Best of Luck.

[Dark Horse]

About trainers and racing stables. Other than here obviously, what's the best way to have a chat with them? Could one go to Santa Anita, where someone like Baffert has his stables and just walk up to him, or would it be easier to go to Lexington and visit some farms? Just trying to get a feel for their general accessibility.

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About trainers and racing stables. Other than here obviously, what's the best way to have a chat with them? Could one go to Santa Anita, where someone like Baffert has his stables and just walk up to him, or would it be easier to go to Lexington and visit some farms? Just trying to get a feel for their general accessibility.

No easy answer to this one.
The farms are so far removed from the track it is night and day. I can't imagine of anything you would want to ask someone on a farm in Lexington that was race related that could be properly answered. Maybe a handful of people could speak to it but probably not very many.
I don't know Baffert but some friends of mine that have been around him all say the same thing about him. He's a putz.
Regulars at the track used to come up to me all the time and ask questions. Usually it was just " do you like your horse in here"? as I left the paddock towards my box. I never had a problem with that but that is not any help.
They used to have a weekly guest trainer and or jockey that would field questions for an hour on Saturdays about an hour and a half before the 1st race in Maryland. They also had a call in radio show on Friday nights. I did a few of both of those back in the day .I don't know if they still do that or not and don't know about other states either. I would think that some places do.
Obviously, owning a small piece like WTT does would give you a chance but I am not sure of any sure fire way to talk to them. And, just like with any job your going to have your nicer guys and your share of jerks.
With this one , I just don't have a real good answer.