[bernardoGui]

bernardoGui PLAYOFF record: 15 - 12 (+4.73)


I have also been looking at the Fleury prop. as I think Pens @ Jacks is going to be a game with a 65ish total shots-on-goal record . Also considering the OT play, which should generate even more shots on goal.. But which one? The SOG stats from the last five games actually suggest both.

Also, 4/5 went over in this series (7 goals total pr game). I don't think that both teams (or even one of them) will score 7 or 8 goals tonight, so the Total saves in game play (in both ends) makes a lot of sense, as this series has been a forechecking and a physical one, in which You'll have to bring a shooting strategy to be able to loosen up the defense of your opponent..

Bobrovsky has an average of 35 saves pr game in the previous 5 in this series! I know the over 31½ saves is a little risky as One could ague that the Penguins will play 'as defensive as possible' because they lead the series, but I don't think that. If they can, they'll close this one just like the Ducks did yesterday and then the question is: how?

SHOOT!

04-28-14 - FIRST PICK: Total saves in the game - Sergei Bobrovsky (CLB), OVER 31½ (-113) x 0.73 unit.

04-28-14 - SECOND PICK: Pens @ Jacks, OVER 5½ goals (+105) x 1 unit.

..and let's bring her over shall We ;-)

[bernardoGui]

Wow. What a choke. Told my friend, Tony Romo must have been at this game. One of the biggest chokes in sports that I can remember in a game.

BTW r u an Eagles phan or a Cowboys fan? Either way (or none..), I take it that You're referring to the resemblance between the now two Dallas Blow outs this season; meaning the Cowboys vs. Eagles in the notorious 'finale' (without Romo) and the Dallas Stars' chokey ckoke yesterday..

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like you got the right goalie prop and my shit streaks continues.

Shoulda kept with the Over I guess.

[bernardoGui]

PMA, my friend - PMA! Come Miller time, I have a feeling that Fleury's gonna be thirsty.. I needed 4 more saves than You to begin with and I definitely expect the Blue balls-to-the-wall'ers to roll off some aggressive offense in the 2nd. 7 shots in the first, over 12½ in 2nd?

[bernardoGui]

..but the Bobrovsky prop. looks bright..

[bernardoGui]

.and now a sloppy penalty for Pens.. Seems they're parking the bus a little in their own zone here in 2nd. 'Only' 6 SOB's so far for Pens..

[EaglesPhan36]

Damn we're both up against it. I gotta hope CLB just goes balls to the wall in the 3rd and throws everything at Fleury. Not sure either of us is gonna win.

[bernardoGui]

WTF!! Are they pulling Bobby ?

[bernardoGui]

Phew!

[bernardoGui]

But I'm afraid that Pens are gonna score one or two more and then he'll get pulled.. If Pens don't score, I'm afraid I'm gonna loose the over.. F@ck!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah you're in a Catch 22. If you get the Over, it's probably because the Bob prop failed. Don't know that they would pull him unless he just gets absolutely lit up, but who knows.

[bernardoGui]

I guess Romo showed up.. Again: wrong game, man!

[bernardoGui]

..but the Bobrovsky prop. looks bright..

..might have jinx'ed it right there.. We're joking about the possibility of another 4-3 game :-)

[EaglesPhan36]

4.28.14: Game 6 LA-SJ Over 5 [-115]

Going back to the well on this one. SJ malfunctioned for the first time on offense, but they are still dangerous and I think LA has been in a groove this entire series - scoring at least three goals in 4/5. Sharks had been unstoppable before Game 5. They may not burn Quick for as many as they did earlier in the series, but they should still be looking to get some tonight and trying to finish the series.The four meetings this season in LA have all hit for at least five.

[bernardoGui]

..might have jinx'ed it right there.. We're joking about the possibility of another 4-3 game :-)

..very high, all of a sudden. and there's the over! Man, I love this game.

[EaglesPhan36]

I should have just taken it. Screwed my goalie prop pretty much 100% barring a flurry of shots in the final minutes without one getting through ... or maybe hoping one does and get OT ... but pretty much banking on a loss.

[bernardoGui]

I don't think Pens will get 8 or more SOG in 2.11 mins. either, but the over did good..

Bobby's out..

[EaglesPhan36]

I continue to suck

[bernardoGui]

4.28.14: Game 6 LA-SJ Over 5 [-115]

During regular season, these teams played 2 games @ Staples and 3 games @ the Tank. LA won the first game 3-4 in OT and lost the second (2-3) in shootout, on the road. LA won the third 1-4 @ home and the fourth game 1-0 on the road. Sharks won the fifth game 1-2 in regular at home. 1/5 went over..

I don't mean to dizz Your pick, as it is very likely to go over when You look at the stats from this series. I just have a feeling, and I think I saw it in G5, that LA found the right groove and as such they've found themselves and their well known defensive composure..

I'll watch the 1st period and maybe come up with a live bet in the 1st intermission.

[bernardoGui]

..and now a fight! First in the playoffs? LA player dropped gloves first? They're wearing those fishes down..

[bernardoGui]

ok.. I feel like I'm pushing it and I'll leave it at two picks today.

bernardoGui PLAYOFF record: 16 - 13 / +5.05

For good luck and continuity!

[bernardoGui]

...

[bernardoGui]

04-29-14; SECOND PICK: Rangers @ Flyers - 1st Intermission

Rangers to score over 0.5 goal in the 2nd period (-135) x 2 units.

Rangers have produced more shots than I anticipated and I think they'll pass Mason in the 2nd. The prop. is still tippin'..

[EaglesPhan36]

Good luck to ya. Sitting it out today. Waiting for the two Game 7s.

[bernardoGui]

Good luck to ya. Sitting it out today. Waiting for the two Game 7s.

Thanks man; I'm gonna need it tonight.

Interesting games tomorrow as well.. Disappointed by the Avs yesterday though. Don't know what to make of it!?

[bernardoGui]

Well, that was that. Mason will easily make over 5 saves in the 3rd. Tried to save the loss as I saw it coming, but our boy has simply been outstanding tonight. Which is more, than You can say about those NY Rags!

-3.25 units on the day is already too much - I'm out.

Catch up tomorrow.


bernardoGui PLAYOFF record: 16 - 15 / +1.80

[odog11]

Good luck to ya. Sitting it out today. Waiting for the two Game 7s.

Three now, can't see an angle yet, though one of the west dogs probably the play. Haven't put any thought into Rangers-Philly yet.

EP or anyone have thoughts on which west dog more likely?

[EaglesPhan36]

I would go Kings. Sharks have the choke label and look defeated thoroughly on the last two games. MIN-COL has been a home dominated series although COL needed OT to win twice.

[EaglesPhan36]

4.30.14: PHI-NYR G7 Over 5 [-110]
The series has been decidedly overish with 5/6 hitting for at least five. @ MSG, 2/3 have seen at least six goals and the other one finished on five.

[bernardoGui]

I'm with You on the over, though I took the 'over 4.5' at -152.

In total, I have four picks in the two following parlays:

1. Flyers @ Rangers, over 4.5 goals (-152)

2. Wild @ Avalanche; Avalanche to score over 0.5 goal in the 1st period (-133)

// +147 x 0.5 units.


3. Flyers @ Rangers; Rangers to score over 0.5 goal in the 1st period (-138)

4. Wild @ Avalanche, over 4.5 goals (-150)

// +143 x 0.5 units.

From what I've seen and as the stats from the two series in question are confirming, the majority of 1st period goals have been scored by the home team. Both games are G7's (as everybody knows) and I feel rather confident that the home teams are frustrated enough to arrive at the net with the puck in ill humor, to put it in the words of former philly coach, Fred Shero.
This should also be more than sufficient in the hunt for the total of 5 or more goals in each game.

GL.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gonna be lucky to see a push in this NYR-PHI game. Only plus is the 3rd period has been good for goals in this series a few times.

[bernardoGui]

First six games had goals in the 1st period; today there wasn't even one! Seems everything is upside down except for the Rangers continueing their streak of missed chances. Also 0/21 on the PP! WTF!?

I was tempted to bet the Rangers to score in the 2nd and now, in the 2nd intermission, again I am watching the live lines develop. But, I think I'll wait the rest of my pending plays out and hopefully end the day with a little +.

Won't be surprised if Simmonds scores another hattrick ;-)

[EaglesPhan36]

Not gonna happen

[bernardoGui]

Not gonna happen

Unfortunately not.. It will take a good nights sleep to get over these last couple of days' losses.. Not the points, as much as the way things played out. Some frustrating experiences..

My two parlays fell with the result in NY, but I guess I still have a couple of picks pending and a little luck left 'cause it seems it was a good goal in Denver. Let's get those goals folks!

I have written some stuff on the Canadiéns vs. Bruins game tomorrow. Hopefully I'll be able to finish and post it in time to get some feedback.

Have a good evening!

[EaglesPhan36]

4.30.14: 2nd Period MIN-COL Over 1.5 [+100]