[odog11]

Bruins at -200 at 5Dimes right now and thinking of making a play on this. Only really makes sense if you think they win game 2 and so I will hold off until Sunday probably.

The teams seem very evenly matched and each game should be close to a toss up. Maybe I am not calculating it right, but if you assume each game is literally a coin-flip (i.e. 50/50) bruins would have a 75% chance of winning the series.

5Dimes has Bruins at +330 to win the East which based on the series prices of -200 implies they will be +186 in the conference finals if they win. Rangers are at +170 for the series and +550 to win the East which implies they will be +141 to win the East.

So, are the Bruins good value to win the East or Rangers to win the East is a sucker bet?

[face]

yes, looked like a coinflip last night. isn't it better to take the dog in a coinflip though? yes the bruins won their home game, but this series could be 2-2 pretty easily.

[odog11]

yes, looked like a coinflip last night. isn't it better to take the dog in a coinflip though? yes the bruins won their home game, but this series could be 2-2 pretty easily.

Yes, it is better to take the dog in a coinflip, but we are talking about a series of flips here and Bruins have one win. If you flip a coin and it comes up heads and you assume the next 4 split it would be heads 3, tails 2. Then for the sixth flip tails has a 50% chance of hitting and if it hits again 50% in the 7th, so you got 50% times 50% = 25% chance that tails(Rangers) win and 75% chance of heads(Bruins) win.

Anyone have thoughts on the discrepancy in the series odds vs the odds to win the conference for Rangers and Bruins?

[hockey216]

rangers +170 for series has value in my opinion. i think rangers have better than 37% chance of beating the bruins in the series (means +170 has + EV)

[hockey216]

i hope i am wrong though as bruins fan, and as i hope bruins win cup so i win 7000 on future bet.

[odog11]

rangers +170 for series has value in my opinion. i think rangers have better than 37% chance of beating the bruins in the series (means +170 has + EV)

If you look at NHL history teams that win game one with home ice advantage win the series 73.9% (88-31) of the of the time in the quarters and 75.9% (289-92) overall. Not the only factor to consider, but the trend here suggest just a little value on the Bruins. I do like the Rangers in game two at plus odds.

[hockey216]

If you look at NHL history teams that win game one with home ice advantage win the series 73.9% (88-31) of the of the time in the quarters and 75.9% (289-92) overall. Not the only factor to consider, but the trend here suggest just a little value on the Bruins. I do like the Rangers in game two at plus odds.

rangers have edge in goaltending, bruins have played terrible for over 2 months, bruins have injuries on D and are playing 2-3 rookies and AHL players (say what you want about rookies, but Bartowski was the D on ice for both nyr goals last night), seguin is non existent (12 games without goal), marchand was non existent except the 1 gift he got from bergeron (1st goal in 11 games), jagr is 41 years old and not well suited for physicality of nhl playoffs, bruins 3rd and 4th lines havent done much, bruins are choke artists in closeout games under julien.

they have been TERRIBLE in closeouts for years. well below .500 in closeout games. they were up 3-1 against toronto and were 1milimeter from epic COLLAPSE to lose the next 3 games and lose series to get eliminated in 1st round again (lucky as hell they got 2 miracle goals in last 2min - they shouldnt even be in 2nd round. if they try that "be down 4-1 in 3rd period and try to come back" strategy again, it is not going to work). bruins are lucky as hell to even be in 2nd round. i am taking the rangers. i have watched every bruins game this season. started off good, then just disappointment after disappointment. rangers have played pretty well over last month or 2. rangers at +170 has + EV. it might win it might lose. bruins got a game up and they should be more than 50%. but i dont think its 63%/37%. i think its 60/40 at best. probably more towards the 55/45 end. Would i lay -200 on bruins? NO WAY. and im a bruins homer. so if i am doubting bruins, everyone else should be doubting them more. i think rangers +170 has + EV. do i think it wins? No. i dont give rangers more than 50% chance of winning series. but even if they have 37%-45% chance, there is + expected value on +170 for series. I think bruins win the series, but the value is on rangers +170 not bruins -200.

rangers +money for game2, rangers +money for series.

[nyplayer33]

think the series line should be a bit higher...but home ice is huge and the NYR are super tough at home..id lean bruins in the series at those odds..not taking NYR at only +170

[odog11]

Gotta go Bruins at +125 for game 3 now, that line should drop a little too. Here are the records of teams up 2-0 on the road for game 3:

Game 3 record, NHL only, all rounds: 128-115 (.527)
Game 3 record, NHL only, Quarterfinals round: 49-29 (.628)

I have seen nothing in the first two games that makes me want to buck that trend.

Also on a side note Vegas really loving Pitt right now. Pitt are up 2-1 and are at -180 to win the East with the Bruins +270 and up 2-0.

[odog11]

Gotta go Bruins at +125 for game 3 now, that line should drop a little too. Here are the records of teams up 2-0 on the road for game 3:

Game 3 record, NHL only, all rounds: 128-115 (.527)
Game 3 record, NHL only, Quarterfinals round: 49-29 (.628)

I have seen nothing in the first two games that makes me want to buck that trend.

Also on a side note Vegas really loving Pitt right now. Pitt are up 2-1 and are at -180 to win the East with the Bruins +270 and up 2-0.

. Greek has Bruins at -140 for game four. Hope I can get -130 at some point. Teams 82-46 (.641) in this situation and Bruins still remember collapse against Philly in 2010.

[PuckIt]

Boston +100 at 5dimes for game 4.

[odog11]

Boston +100 at 5dimes for game 4.

Thanks for the heads up, able to get it at +104 reduced just now. Complete gift.