Wow! That's a huge difference! How much are you betting per play?Originally Posted by justin81
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11-02-13 09:06 AM #2836
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11-02-13 09:19 AM #2837
It's not just that they don't agree, but while doing my backtests I noticed that on a majority of the occasions that they differed, when I would cross reference the lines with other reputable sites, the favorite was almost always the same team that the scoresandodds main screen had and not necessarily the team pages. Since there are differences on occasion, then obviously I had to pick one to OFFICIALLY use for my backtest and to determine ALL future system plays. So I decided that thel main screen lines is what we would use, which as I said, seemed to be more consistent. Originally Posted by Andy3568
I really hope everybody on here reads these two posts so these same questions won't be asked everytime there is a close line game. The info is there, you just have to dig a little. Or better yet, I know this system pretty well and I am already doing the digging, so just trust that what I post is accurate. I have been running this for three years and backtested numerous seasons before that. So believe me when I say, I know where to look for my official lines, and I won't read it wrong. I am in no way saying that I will never make a mistake, but almost every day since we started, someone has questioned my posts. I know I'm not making that many errors.Last edited by Wallco99; 11-02-13 at 09:35 AM.
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11-02-13 09:57 AM #2838
to win 30, runnig the labby though. Safety first. Pretty sure regression is around the corner... Originally Posted by bisturis
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11-02-13 10:05 AM #2839
First, I want to thank you Wallco99 for all the work you have been doing. I've been following this thread since the beginning of the season and I was just hoping someone can confirm if I am doing the B and C level bets correctly. For example, if my unit bets are $10 and on a level A bet I was expecting $5 profit. So on a B level bet I would be wagering $15? Consequently, if I was expecting $10 profit on the B level I would end end up wagering $40 on the C level bet?
I apologize for the simple question but I just wanted to confirm for my my my own sake.
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11-02-13 10:14 AM #2840
Go to my NBA thread and look up post #45. The chase bet structure is listed there and is the same principle for all chase systems. The only difference is NBA Chase 110 is a 4 game chase and NHL Gold is a 3 game chase, but you would just stop 1 bet earlier in this system. Here is the link: Originally Posted by ad19
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...ba-thread.htmlLast edited by Wallco99; 11-02-13 at 10:18 AM.
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11-02-13 10:16 AM #2841
You are also confusing terms, if you are expecting a $5 profit, then your units are $5. If you risk $10 to win $5, you are risking 2 units to win 1. Always looking to "win" units not "risk" units. All my updates use this logic. Originally Posted by ad19
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11-02-13 10:23 AM #2842
Thank you. Originally Posted by Wallco99
So just to confirm, assuming $10 units:
- A level: Bet $10, expected profit $5 - loss
- B level: Bet $25 (A level loss [$15] + 1u [$10]), expected profit $10 - loss
- C level: Bet $60 (A level loss [$15] + B level loss [$35] + 1u[$10])
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11-02-13 10:43 AM #2843
Wrong, read #2841 Originally Posted by ad19
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11-02-13 10:46 AM #2844
If your (A) bet was a $10 unit (WIN) and lost @ -200 odds, your loss would be $20. Next bet is to "WIN" 30,a loss would be 30 x odds. Originally Posted by ad19
The post I sent you to in NBA thread is very, very clearly written.
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11-02-13 11:35 AM #2845
OK, I get it now. Thank you.
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11-02-13 02:43 PM #2846
LOL. Very clearly written. Obviously you are an systems analyst and not an spec writer. Trying to squeeze blood out of a termite.
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11-02-13 07:17 PM #2847
Bloody mofos Carolina, they are on a mission to screw us real good. We already need them to score to avoid bet C, and they score less than a goal per game lately and now earn penalties for fun.
Last edited by ridersonthestorm; 11-02-13 at 07:30 PM.
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11-02-13 07:22 PM #2848
no worries, plenty of time left and C bet vs the flyers.
-bonhammer
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11-02-13 07:33 PM #2849
Those farkers are done today already and given how pisspoor they play and HAVE NOT SCORED for 7 periods now, I am worried. Originally Posted by bonhammer
STOP THE PRESS. Carolina have scored a goal. I repeat, Carolina have scored a goal.Last edited by ridersonthestorm; 11-02-13 at 07:40 PM.
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11-02-13 07:50 PM #2850
You may need Xanax for the (C) bet if you are this anxious during the midpoint of the (B) bet. I will tell you this, there are over 250 plays on average per season and many of them go to a (C) bet, some with much higher odds. This system will really test your patience. Originally Posted by ridersonthestorm
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11-02-13 07:55 PM #2851
i need xanax even for the (B) bet
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11-02-13 08:08 PM #2852
You are right, I am not the calmest oke around. For some weird reason I have no big problems to lose 10 or more in a row in 50-50 games, hell, I managed to lose in space of week or something 3 MLB games, when my team was up by 6 runs or more. Originally Posted by Wallco99
This series so far were great, that's the sole consolation and that's why I have decided to quit independent loss making tampering and just let things go on a proved path here and hope for the best.
But by golly, no way I can be calm like buddhist, knowing my luck and seeing things turning sharply again, when I get involved. I can only hope collective luck of others will prevail.
Last edited by ridersonthestorm; 11-02-13 at 08:42 PM.
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11-02-13 10:27 PM #2853
If you need chemical help for anxiety on a (B) bet in November, this may not be the system for you.
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11-03-13 12:29 AM #2854
Wow damn such a bad day. Hope it'll be better tomorrow
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11-03-13 01:01 AM #2855
What happens if Carolina is favored in next game? Is it a ML play for the cbet then? Since books wouldn't offer +1.5 ...
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11-03-13 01:02 AM #2856
Post #2447 Originally Posted by Greg242
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11-03-13 07:49 AM #2857
I need chemical help for "A" bets!!
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11-03-13 08:50 AM #2858
All chases can get pretty stressful. You have to leave emotion out of it. Earlier this year in the JM NFL system, there was a "C" bet on Jacksonville over Denver. Talk about a temptation to skip a "C" bet! Jacksonville lost the game SU, of course, but they ended up covering the huge spread. Lesson: Leave emotion out of it and follow the system.
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11-03-13 09:11 AM #2859
Well - but don't ignore common sense when it comes to your bankroll. IF it does get too stressful re-evaluate how big your starting bets are. I'm hope some of you are making adjustments. I started out small as I know the start of the NHL GOLD season is not a smooth ride. At least the last 2 years.Leave emotion out of it and follow the system.
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11-03-13 09:17 AM #2860
Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 27-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +27.00 units (fin.series)
Current open series: 3 (-13.49 units)
(11/2/13):
#26 Carolina (+1½) v2 (B) - Loss
#27 San Jose (M/L) v1 (A) - Loss
#28 Tampa Bay (+1½) v1 (A) - Win
#29 Columbus (+1½) v1 (A) - Loss
#30 Vancouver (M/L) v1 (A) - Win
v1 Fades
(A) 18-5
(B) 3-0
(C) 0-0
Losses: None
v2 Plays
(A) 6-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 0-0
Losses: None
Games for (11/3/13):
#26 Resumes v2 (C) on 11/5/13
#27 Resumes v1 (B) on 11/5/13
#29 Resumes v1 (B) on 11/6/13
#31 Calgary (+1½) @ Chicago v1 (A) (7:35 pm EDT)
Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #2446 & #2447.
Last edited by Wallco99; 11-03-13 at 01:45 PM.
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Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: sod77
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11-03-13 01:37 PM #2861
****
Last edited by Wallco99; 11-03-13 at 01:50 PM.
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11-03-13 11:58 PM #2862
I was wondering if you backtested this playing ALL moneylines instead of instead of playing the pucklines on underdogs, and what were your results?
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11-04-13 06:51 AM #2863
I believe Alexknyc monitored it that way for a while and it wasn't as nearly as effective. Originally Posted by dinnydan
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11-04-13 07:24 AM #2864
^^^
Last edited by Wallco99; 11-04-13 at 07:41 AM.
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11-04-13 07:36 AM #2865
Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 28-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +28.00 units (fin.series)
Current open series: 3 (-13.49 units)
(11/3/13):
#31 Calgary (+1½) v1 (A) - Win
v1 Fades
(A) 19-5
(B) 3-0
(C) 0-0
Losses: None
v2 Plays
(A) 6-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 0-0
Losses: None
Games for (11/4/13):
#26 Resumes v2 (C) on 11/5/13
#27 Resumes v1 (B) on 11/5/13
#29 Resumes v1 (B) on 11/6/13
#32 Anaheim (+1½) @ N.Y. Rangers v1 (A) (7:35 pm EST)
#33 Detroit @ Winnipeg (+1½) v1 (A) (8:05 pm EST)
Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in post #2446 & #2447Last edited by Wallco99; 11-04-13 at 03:55 PM.
Points Awarded:
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analyzer gave Wallco99 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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11-04-13 01:43 PM #2866
Anaheim looks like the underdog right now.
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11-04-13 03:37 PM #2867
Anaheim is +111 underdog, so the play #32 should be a PL instead of ML (4:30PM EST).
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11-04-13 03:41 PM #2868
...unless it changes again in the 3 hours between now and game time. Originally Posted by oldshoebox72
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11-04-13 10:18 PM #2869
People who can't read and took ML for both games must be super happy now.
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11-04-13 10:24 PM #2870
Not likely, they probably bet to win only 1 unit as usual. Originally Posted by miss_sbets
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