[nicktran808]

Hope these A bets all close out tonight because if even two of the 3 go to C its going to be expensive.

[alexknyc]

5Dimes has the NJ game as even (both -105 on the reduced juice line). I'm waiting until later to place the bet as NJ may become the favorite.

[slohar]

Thanks

[slohar]

Wallco I have been studying your posts, this system is ridiculously powerful, congrats on building it. I will be jumping on board next season in a big way, I'm very impressed.

Why wait until next season to join? There is no reason why you can't start playing the system now.

[alexknyc]

Why wait until next season to join? There is no reason why you can't start playing the system now.

Other than the fact that those of us who started at the beginning now have a 40-unit cushion against a future loss that he doesn't have.

[jonny2k4]

new to the boards... found this thread. looks great! started last night with a win with blue jackets.. today's odds look heavy hope it wins. good luck fellas, and thanks wallco99 for the thread!

[DustyDiamond]

Hope most of you found New Jersey at +1.5. All I could get was ML

[slohar]

Other than the fact that those of us who started at the beginning now have a 40-unit cushion against a future loss that he doesn't have.

But you didn't have that cushion when you started the season either. And he won't have that cushion if we waits until the beginning of next season.

The only way it would make sense to wait is if you can somehow demonstrate that we are more likely to lose a 3 game chase starting now than we are to lose a 3 game chase starting at the beginning of next season. I don't think that is true.

[slohar]

NJ Devils are now a favorite on 5dimes. NJ ML is -125. Just to be clear, I should take NJ on the ML instead of NJ +1.5 goals, correct?

[Grinder12000]

NJ Devils are now a favorite on 5dimes. NJ ML is -125. Just to be clear, I should take NJ on the ML instead of NJ +1.5 goals, correct?

Correct - although as Wallco says ScoresanOdds.com are the real line he goes but (which is the same)

I took NJ 1 1/2 -310 earlier today - didn't know it was going to be that close

[Andy3568]

The official line is the final on Scores and Odds, which is the ML. If you got it at +1.5, you'll either come out on top of the system (if NJ loses by one goal and the series ends up losing) or you'll come out behind (if NJ loses by 2 or more goals and the series ends up losing). Otherwise, it's a wash.

[Wallco99]

That New Jersey game is expensive. HOWEVER - last year games -300 or greater were 11-4 - a little under-performing but that is why this system works.

It ended up a money line play, since they closed as a favorite. I bought in before work at +1 1/2, so hopefully they win outright for everyone.

[nicktran808]

Other than the fact that those of us who started at the beginning now have a 40-unit cushion against a future loss that he doesn't have.

I joined in when the system was up 27 units and I'm loving it.

Good thing I made my bets early, gotta get into the habit of placing my bets early so I avoid dogs becoming favorites and so I don't miss out on early games (didn't realize all 3 games were early ones until I checked scores after the Creighton game)

[cadetduke]

Good thing I made my bets early, gotta get into the habit of placing my bets early so I avoid dogs becoming favorites and so I don't miss out on early games (didn't realize all 3 games were early ones until I checked scores after the Creighton game)

Made my bets at 6AM CST because I woke up at 4AM with sinus issues (may have an ear infection from a flight I took for my wedding, ears bled and still haven't fully "popped"). Glad I won all three though.

I only do small bets ($15 or so for A bets) as I'm just getting started though.

[nicktran808]

I originally got started by depositing $50 and betting to win $5 as a unit. Then a few days ago I had to throw in another $100 to afford all of the bets, but now I'm sitting on a very nice stack. Thinking about upping it to $10 a unit after a few more wins.

[alexknyc]

But you didn't have that cushion when you started the season either. And he won't have that cushion if we waits until the beginning of next season.

The only way it would make sense to wait is if you can somehow demonstrate that we are more likely to lose a 3 game chase starting now than we are to lose a 3 game chase starting at the beginning of next season. I don't think that is true.

Obviously, you assume the rest of the season will be undefeated as well.

If there's a loss, it'll be costly. A 40-unit loss for us brings us back to even. A 40-unit loss for him could cost him half his bankroll.

It's entirely his call but it would be foolish to assume the system will remain undefeated.

[jonny2k4]

One loss could be that many units?

[jonny2k4]

Obviously, you assume the rest of the season will be undefeated as well.

If there's a loss, it'll be costly. A 40-unit loss for us brings us back to even. A 40-unit loss for him could cost him half his bankroll.

It's entirely his call but it would be foolish to assume the system will remain undefeated.

one loss can be that many units?

[Sacrelicious]

Other than the fact that those of us who started at the beginning now have a 40-unit cushion against a future loss that he doesn't have.

Thats the exact reason, lower sample size and higher variance for the remainder of the season. That being said, I am jumping along except with much smaller units then I would have used from the beginning, just to test it out and get the feel for the system. Best of luck to all of us.

[Sacrelicious]

Obviously, you assume the rest of the season will be undefeated as well.

If there's a loss, it'll be costly. A 40-unit loss for us brings us back to even. A 40-unit loss for him could cost him half his bankroll.

It's entirely his call but it would be foolish to assume the system will remain undefeated.

Precisely my thoughts, the only thing that seems to be constant about any system like this is a large sample size is needed to eliminate variance, and without it the swings can be massive in either direction. I'm jumping on with very very small unit sizes to give it a try and get a feel for it though, with any luck I will be able to get on board for the full season when the next one begins.

[Grinder12000]

The largest one game loss is about 20 units. Don't think of the 3 game chase as one game. People who think that way are more afraid of losing then winning.Each game stands on its own and you up your bets accordingly.


Sac - I charted every game last year to get a feel for the swings and I'm more confidant now then before. You don't need a 40 unit cushion because you are always filling in with many little wins.

[samrock67]

Looking back at the first post in this thread, the largest unit loss on a series based on the backtested results is 32.32, and that was back in 2005-06. All you have to do is take one glance to see that the losses average out to around 20 units/loss. So, while chasing can be expensive, it really doesn't average out to be that much more expensive than a Wallco chase or Stifler loss.

I think there are a few people following this system(including myself) who, due to the shortened NHL season, have decreased our unit size to .5% just because we weren't sure what to expect. Needless to say the results have been fantastic and I personally can't thank Wallco enough for the work he puts in.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2012-13 System to date: 42-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +42.00 unitsL(fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.30 units)

(3/2/13):
#41 Tampa Bay (+1½) v2 (A) - Win
#42 New Jersey (M/L) v2 (A) - Loss
#43 Washington (+1½) v1 (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 14-16
(B) 11-5
(C) 5-0

v2 Plays
(A) 6-7
(B) 3-3
(C) 3-0


Games for (3/3/13):
#42 Resumes v2 (B) on 3/4/13
#44 Ottawa @ N.Y. Islanders (M/L) v2 (A) (3:05 pm EST)
#45 Montreal (+1½) @ Boston v1 (A) (7:35 pm EST)
#46 Buffalo @ N.Y. Rangers (M/L) v1 (A) (7:35 pm EST)


Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. You may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2.

[OFS]

Looking back at the first post in this thread, the largest unit loss on a series based on the backtested results is 32.32, and that was back in 2005-06. All you have to do is take one glance to see that the losses average out to around 20 units/loss. So, while chasing can be expensive, it really doesn't average out to be that much more expensive than a Wallco chase or Stifler loss.

I think there are a few people following this system(including myself) who, due to the shortened NHL season, have decreased our unit size to .5% just because we weren't sure what to expect. Needless to say the results have been fantastic and I personally can't thank Wallco enough for the work he puts in.

I feel that, and this is certainly just my opinion, the shortened season is helping because the teams are playing more games without rest, resulting in more 1 goal games.

[Wallco99]

Thanks guys.

[rustie]

I feel that, and this is certainly just my opinion, the shortened season is helping because the teams are playing more games without rest, resulting in more 1 goal games.

There may be something to that theory OFS, good thinking.

[Blannewk]

Hi guys, just starting to tail. Sorry for the question as I'm sure it is a redundant one but I just want to double check before I make a substantial wager.

I understand the m/l and p/l part but as far as what team to take for each version I could use some clarification.

Today we take New York islanders, Boston, and buffalo?

Thanks for the help!!

[jonny2k4]

Hi guys, just starting to tail. Sorry for the question as I'm sure it is a redundant one but I just want to double check before I make a substantial wager.

I understand the m/l and p/l part but as far as what team to take for each version I could use some clarification.

Today we take New York islanders, Boston, and buffalo?

Thanks for the help!!

no you take the highlighted teams. becarefull with the p/l bets you lay alot.

[Sacrelicious]

The largest one game loss is about 20 units. Don't think of the 3 game chase as one game. People who think that way are more afraid of losing then winning.Each game stands on its own and you up your bets accordingly.


Sac - I charted every game last year to get a feel for the swings and I'm more confidant now then before. You don't need a 40 unit cushion because you are always filling in with many little wins.

I'm certainly willing to give it a try, very small unit sizes as I tend to be a bit risk adverse, you really cant argue with the systems performance..

[jonny2k4]

Love the Rangers tonight!

[Wallco99]

Hi guys, just starting to tail. Sorry for the question as I'm sure it is a redundant one but I just want to double check before I make a substantial wager.

I understand the m/l and p/l part but as far as what team to take for each version I could use some clarification.

Today we take New York islanders, Boston, and buffalo?

Thanks for the help!!

The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play.

[Grinder12000]

Sacrelicious - I started this year (my 1st) with 1/2 of a unit. Then FREAKED out because there was one night when I had 65 units in play (a record for this system). When that night ended at +24 units I decided aI needed to get a feel for the system and looked at every game last year charting on a spreadsheet to get a feel for the system and now I'm playing .6 of a unit and maybe in a week or two might go to .7.

It's good to start small as sports wagering is NOT about how much you win this year, it's about how much you win in your lifetime. Longevity is the key, not instant riches.

[Blannewk]

Thanks for the clarification!!

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2012-13 System to date: 42-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +42.00 unitsL(fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.30 units)

(3/2/13):
#41 Tampa Bay (+1½) v2 (A) - Win
#42 New Jersey (M/L) v2 (A) - Loss
#43 Washington (+1½) v1 (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 14-16
(B) 11-5
(C) 5-0

v2 Plays
(A) 6-7
(B) 3-3
(C) 3-0



Games for (3/3/13):
#42 Resumes v2 (B) on 3/4/13
#44 Ottawa @ N.Y. Islanders (M/L) v2 (A) (3:05 pm EST)
#45 Montreal (+1½) @ Boston v1 (A) (7:35 pm EST)
#46 Buffalo @ N.Y. Rangers (M/L) v1 (A) (7:35 pm EST)


Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. You may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2.

[nicktran808]

If we already won the NJ bet by taking it on the puck line early, is it advisable to continue to bet on the series to try and get another unit from it?