So we should wait on #10 and #11 as #10 Minnesota is +105 (Vancouver -125) and LA Kings are +100 (Nashville -120) correct?
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02-07-13 07:17 AM #1436
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02-07-13 07:25 AM #1437
I'm waiting until closer to game time.
Originally Posted by Grinder12000
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02-07-13 07:46 AM #1438
I think more often line movements have more to do with the amount of money bet on the two sides than on events affecting the team. The books want the amount of money bet on each side to be close to equal. That minimizes their risk. If it gets too lopsided, they move the odds to encourage bets on the other team. Colorado switching from favorite to dog simply means too much money was being bet on Anaheim.
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02-07-13 07:49 AM #1439
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02-07-13 08:35 AM #1440
Originally Posted by Wallco99
LA Kings not fav's or dogs. -110 line now at Bet365 and offline at Pinnacle.
No play?
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02-07-13 08:42 AM #1441
Just say'in. If the team you are betting on is even money, or a favorite on ScoresandOdds.com, play the M/L.
I hope they stay at least even as I don't want to pay -340
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02-07-13 08:59 AM #1442
Wallco,
you probably have the numbers all correct at the infinitival point, can you please tell me what's the average odd of the A bets (on both systems)?
The reason I'm asking this is because I been crunching your system numbers (btw awesome record for the past 7 years, great system) and I've found that we can also benefit from just flat betting the fav's on the -1.5!
V1&V2 System - [A bets]
2011/12 59% hit; odds have to be (average) better than 1.69 (-145) on the +1.5 to make a profit flat betting them
2010/11 62% hit; odds have to be (average) better than 1.61 (-164) on the +1.5 to make a profit flat betting them
2009/10 66% hit; odds have to be (average) better than 1.51 (-196) on the +1.5 to make a profit flat betting them
2008/09 65% hit; odds have to be (average) better than 1.53 (-188) on the +1.5 to make a profit flat betting them
2007/08 63% hit; odds have to be (average) better than 1.57 (-175) on the +1.5 to make a profit flat betting them
2006/07 65% hit; odds have to be (average) better than 1.55 (-182) on the +1.5 to make a profit flat betting them
2005/06 62% hit; odds have to be (average) better than 1.60 (-166) on the +1.5 to make a profit flat betting them
Since the average odds for +1.5 bets don't even reach 1.55 (-182) you could make an easy +20 to +40 units more per season by just playing (flat betting, no chase) the opposites of your bet (A) selections!!
I'm probably being too simplistic (in my math calculations), but have you also made this kind of assumptions before? Have you worked the numbers this way?
Thx for your feedback
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02-07-13 08:59 AM #1443
thx Originally Posted by Grinder12000
my bad!
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02-07-13 10:57 AM #1444
+1.5 at -145 is rare imo !
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02-07-13 11:06 AM #1445
A) 3u to win 1u
B) 12u to win 4u
C) 48u to win 16u
63units on a series playing some of the high juice Wallco uses. Hope you all are prepared. Yesterday Fantastic winning percentage record, but no where near makes up for the juice you have to pay.
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02-07-13 11:14 AM #1446
What's your deal, bro? Why show up in a thread, not follow the prescribed methods, dog the guy who came up with it when it was you who screwed up, and then clog the thread with more inaccurate posts? Just don't use it if you don't like the system. No need to waste the space. We're all adults and have (hopefully) read the first post and understand what we're getting into.
Points Awarded:
Wallco99 gave Nakazilla 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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02-07-13 11:20 AM #1447
The biggest lost in 6 years was (-32.32) Originally Posted by J.M. Disciple
63 units is exagerate
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02-07-13 11:26 AM #1448
What is your deal man? Haven't been on this site long. But from what I've seen, you come in every one of Wallco's threads, try to pick apart his systems or the way they're being run and basically start shit with him. You have arguments in 2 separate threads going on right now. If you don't like him or systems, either don't follow or start your own threads and run things the way you want to. Originally Posted by J.M. Disciple
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02-07-13 11:51 AM #1449
He actually had a thread but only had around 2 followers. Originally Posted by bigtymer56
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02-07-13 03:17 PM #1450
The biggest loss only 32 units, but i remember last season there was a huge C bet that won, but had to risk like 30 some thing units on the C bet a lone. Just tired of people worshiping wallco for his high juice systems. Might as well play No OT in hockey, much higher winning percentage with the same juice. Here is a system, wait for a team to go to OT, bet the next 3 games that they do not go to OT. Originally Posted by John Deere
Some of you follow blindly and its sad. You see a high winning percentage and do not realize what it takes to in terms of units to win that 1 unit. I'll leave it at that.
And yes I talk to wallco a lot, because he is the biggest douche on SBR. You may not have been on sBR long, but keep following wallco and you will see why people talk crap about him.
This will be my last post for this thread.
Good Luck to all of you.
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02-07-13 04:00 PM #1451
What is your point? You are paying -300 so 48 to win 16 is totally understandable.A) 3u to win 1u
B) 12u to win 4u
C) 48u to win 16u
Who really gives a crap about previous games - if you do then perhaps you should not be betting chases. Once you lose an "A" or a "B" game that money is gone - vanished! Move on. If you get hit by a truck can your spouse say - "well, the chase was not over so can I have that money back?".
When I bet the final game of a chase I'm not betting to win back the previous games, I'm betting to win THAT game. Yea - I'm betting a lot more then the last 2 games but I want to win THAT game, not the previous games, I lost those already.
The thing about a chase is that you are constantly adding to your bankroll with the smaller wins. If we played one chase at a time then it would be different but in a chase you are always recouping previous losses so that final game you might lose 48 units but at the same time hopefully you have added to your bank with many small wins.
I think what you are complaining about is the amount of risk compared to the amount or reward. That is something you have to factor in when you start a chase.
If you don't like the risk, don't play it. simple as that. I love chases BECAUSE of the risk/reward. It''s the price you pay for entertainment. If losing "63" units as you say is to much of a risk lower your units but you never actually lose 63. All you lose is that one bet.
People who tie these chases into one mammoth 9 period game are only putting added and unneeded stress on themselves.
and BTW - Wallco and I have had our . . . . differences but big deal. I don't see people worshipping. Putting out free picks is freaking stressful and I applaud anybody for doing it. I have a NFL system that is pretty good (60% over 20 years) and I hate knowing people are playing it - THAT is stressful. I would rather lose MY money then others lose theirs.
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02-07-13 04:08 PM #1452
I assume kings should be moneyline if our book is showing them at -105 and predators at -115?
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02-07-13 04:14 PM #1453
Yeah buddy ! Originally Posted by MLefty
We are going to pay a lot of juice on the Wild imo.
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02-07-13 04:25 PM #1454
shhhhhh! don't tell JMD :-)
JOHN - I can't take my eyes off your breasts!!
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02-07-13 04:29 PM #1455
Haha google : Vanessa Blouion ! Originally Posted by Grinder12000
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02-07-13 04:37 PM #1456
Sadly my 3 books have the LA Kings either as a dog, a fav OR a toss up.
-115 -105 5 Dimes
-105 -115 Bovada
-110 -110 Intertops
hmmmmmmM!
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02-07-13 04:39 PM #1457
Bet Kings ML.
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02-07-13 04:45 PM #1458
nah take the Wild moneyline... I am cause I am showing them as even right now. Originally Posted by John Deere
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02-07-13 04:48 PM #1459
I highly doubt that the win% is "much higher" for the same price. Originally Posted by J.M. Disciple
You realize that this is a 3 game chase, so the losses are extremely comparable to Stifler's system which you have so much praise for, right?
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02-07-13 05:53 PM #1460
Wallco NHL GOLD
2012-13 System to date: 8-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +8.00 unitsL(fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-2.20 units)
Games for (2/6/13):
#10 Colorado (+1½)Lv1 (A) -
v1 Plays
(A) 3-3
(B) 2-0
(C) 0-0
v2 Plays
(A) 2-1
(B) 1-0
(C) 0-0
Games for (2/7/13):
#9 Washington (+1½) @ Pittsburgh v1 (B) (7:05 pm EST)
#10 Resumes v1 (B) on 2/8/13
#11 Vancouver @ Minnesota (+1½) v1 (A) (8:05 pm EST)
#12 L.A. Kings (M/L) @ Nashville v1 (A) (8:05 pm EST)
Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. You may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2.
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02-07-13 05:54 PM #1461
At the moment, the L.A. Kings are a M/L play tonight. Keep an eye on this one until just before game time.
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02-07-13 06:25 PM #1462
ALL rules and system backtests can be found in post #1 and #2. Last year the system ended at +65 units, that one is not found in post #2. Originally Posted by EasyPicks
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02-07-13 06:29 PM #1463
I've been saying this in EVERY thread he regularly trolls. Yes, troll. He is jealous of anyone who shows any winning seasons with their systems because the fly-by -the-pants systems he constantly comes up with FAIL 100% of the time. He is just a youngster trying to be a leader, but no one will listen because he has no clue. Originally Posted by Nakazilla
Last edited by Wallco99; 02-07-13 at 06:32 PM.
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02-07-13 06:36 PM #1464
Not PEOPLE, just you and your two other troll buddies. All three trolls offer nothing useful whatsoever, but have a lot to say about EVERYONE else. I highly doubt this will be your last post, because you are a liar and an SBR splinter that just won't go away, and many people in several threads wish you would. Originally Posted by J.M. Disciple
JMD = Just More Drivel. That is all you ever offer with your marathon size useless posts. If the above sentence in his quote, which I have bolded for your viewing pleasure , is not the epitome of the jealousy I mentioned earlier, than I don't know what is, and I am yet to see this "worship" this fool mentions. I post the plays, then some people play them, and some say thanks if they win. Some lose, and I will get grief, which I know goes with the territory. I hardly think that's worship, that's just being human. What a Fool.Last edited by Wallco99; 02-07-13 at 06:51 PM.
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02-07-13 06:37 PM #1465
Waiting on Wild line if it move up. not sure I wanna pay -300 juice.
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02-07-13 06:55 PM #1466
I think I need a hockey line for Dummies. If the Kings are getting the +1.5 aren't they still considered the dog? Originally Posted by Wallco99
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02-07-13 06:56 PM #1467
Not if the M/L is -110 or higher, then we don't care who is getting the goals, we are playing the M/L. The favorite/dog in this system is based on the M/L, not the team getting the 1.5 goals. Originally Posted by OFS
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02-07-13 06:57 PM #1468
Kings will be M/L
Wild +1.5 (-300)
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02-07-13 07:06 PM #1469
Finally, Wild/Nucks is -105/-105
I'm on Wild M/L
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02-07-13 07:33 PM #1470
Lol wsh.....
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