[Wallco99]

WALLCO, taking a step back and looking at this system with a shortened season, would you agree that it is in everyone's best interest to proceed with caution?

Since this is your system, and you are the most experienced with it, what will you be betting in terms of unit size? I know we are all excited that the NHL is back, but we don't want to go blowing our load over something we weren't sure about to begin with.. Great system here, hope she exceeds our expectations

Absolutely! I will be playing my normal unit size, because I just can't help myself. But I would strongly suggest 1/2 units this year because of the lack of plays, if 100-140 is a lack of plays. Hockey lines do get high, and some losses could be costly, but this system, during FULL regular seasons usually holds it's own. Post #1161 has a recap of last season. The loss amonts for each loss are shown there. The system actually finished at +67 units, the last loss wasn't represented in that post because the series was still active at the time.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

I'm starting at a half unit, until I'm playing with a good size of "house money" as they say.

Wallco, as far as the post in the other thread, you took a slight swipe at a post of mine (or maybe I read it wrong) and I was pissed from other posters. I try and help out where I can but the moaning and groaning about D bets was killing me. Last I'll say about it. Hopefully it stays quiet in here. This thread is nearly a year older than the other thread, with half the posts.
Now I'm done.

[Wallco99]

I'm starting at a half unit, until I'm playing with a good size of "house money" as they say.

Wallco, as far as the post in the other thread, you took a slight swipe at a post of mine (or maybe I read it wrong) and I was pissed from other posters. I try and help out where I can but the moaning and groaning about D bets was killing me. Last I'll say about it. Hopefully it stays quiet in here. This thread is nearly a year older than the other thread, with half the posts.
Now I'm done.

Actually, I don't remember doing that, so I believe you did read it wrong. I thought I answered any questions you had whenever you asked, never negative tone toward you. If you got caught in crossfire of me and the whiney A-hole J.M. Disciple, then I apologize. Other than that, I don't know when this swipe took place.

[twobelowpar]

Come on Florida! Score another goal!

[CrazyCarl]

Here is the problem I have. When I opened the JM NBA thread this year and the MLB thread in the Spring, for some reason I can no longer cut and paste anything from Microsoft Word to SBR's new threads with their new format. It gives me an error message every time, it says I have 100 images as part of my post when I actually have none. For some reason, I can still cut and paste to this thread and any thread opened before this, then copy it from here and paste it in the appropriate thread. I have no idea why, but that is how it is. I was posting the Chase 110 plays in here for a while, since I had to paste them here anyway, I figured I would just leave them posted for everyone's covenience. Until some whiney little bitch went crying to the mods about NBA plays being posted in an NHL thread, which I created mind you, when at the time there wasn't even a hockey season going on. Since this is the only thread I can successfully post updates in, I have to leave it open, and there is no sense in having two active threads with very similar names. Also, the entire history of this system will be in one thread now instaed of being scattered all over SBR. Hopefully it's not inconvenient for anyone, but at this time, it is my only option.

Huh, that's pretty weird that it doesn't let you copy it.

Appreciate the explanation, and like I said, I couldn't really come up with any good reason as to why a new thread would be beneficial to me at least. I think it would be helpful to some newcomers possibly, was the only thing I could think of -- other than that, entirely stylistic preference.

[noveggies]

Come on Florida! Score another goal!

I blame the ambiguity in this post in not specifying which team from Florida should score another goal for this initial loss.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2012-13 System to date: 0-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +0.00 units(fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-2.10 units)

(1/29/13):
#1 Florida (+1½) v2 (A) - Loss

v1 Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0

v2 Plays
(A) 0-1
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0


Games for (1/30/13):
#1 Resumes (B) on 1/31/13
#2 Chicago @ Minnesota (+1½)v1 (A) (8:05 pm EDT)


Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. You may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2.

[Grinder12000]

So let me get this straight (first time betting on hockey).

#2 Chicago @ Minnesota (+1½)v1 (A) (8:05 pm EDT)

The play is Minnesota I see Minnesota as +1.5 -270 so IF I was betting $100 to win (I'm not) it would be $270 to win $100 in this game one.

HOWEVER - if the play was Chicago which has a M/L of -125 I would be $125 to win 100 right??

Hockey is weird!

[Mrscofield25]

So let me get this straight (first time betting on hockey).

#2 Chicago @ Minnesota (+1½)v1 (A) (8:05 pm EDT)

The play is Minnesota I see Minnesota as +1.5 -270 so IF I was betting $100 to win (I'm not) it would be $270 to win $100 in this game one.

HOWEVER - if the play was Chicago which has a M/L of -125 I would be $125 to win 100 right??

Hockey is weird!

Yes. Juicy.

[AstroTexAg]

Just read the entire thread. Good read.

With the short season how many loses (not looses) can the system afford and still be proftable?

[CrazyCarl]

Just read the entire thread. Good read.

With the short season how many loses (not looses) can the system afford and still be proftable?

Not possible to give you a straight answer, as there's no way of knowing ahead of time how many plays there will be or what the price of those plays will be.

Your best guess would be to simply take the amount of the average loss from last year, and then however many units that is, you know you would need that many system wins to make up for each loss (approximately). Even this guess would not be even close to perfect, as the system losses are much worse if you bet on a very juicy puckline in multiple games, etc., and would be much cheaper if you bet a -120 favorite and lost that 3 times in a row.

[AstroTexAg]

Wallco said in earlier posts that he expects 100-140 plays and that the average loss is 20 units. 5-7?

[CrazyCarl]

Wallco said in earlier posts that he expects 100-140 plays and that the average loss is 20 units. 5-7?

I don't think he truly calculated an average, and that 20 units was just his own guesstimate. So, yes, what you said would be a fairly decent estimation, but extremely far from perfect. We could unluckily have 5 losses that are all -270 juicy plays, and then it would be much much more expensive than your guess. Likewise, we could have all cheap losses.

[njb5572]

Good luck!

Degen, sent you a PM

[nrok2118]

I don't think some newcomers know what they are getting into. Chasing a mediocre team of all PL with say -220 juice loses almost 32 units if not successful. I followed this system the second half of the season last year and didn't have a single loss. I was doing $20 units, and remember one game I was risking around $600 on the C bet, not even factoring in all the money I had already lost on A and B. Talk about sweating a game out, holy shit! I remember explaining to my buddy I had this $600 bet just to win $20 This isn't for the faint of heart, and your unit size should be no more than 1% of your bankroll, which you should be OK with losing. If you did 2% bankroll unit, for example, you might not even handle 2 consecutive losses! And its even more dangerous this year with the shortened season, that's why Ill keep my eye on this but most likely not participating. Good Luck to everyone, but know what your getting into!!

[BuckeyeKaptn]

So let me get this straight (first time betting on hockey).

#2 Chicago @ Minnesota (+1½)v1 (A) (8:05 pm EDT)

The play is Minnesota I see Minnesota as +1.5 -270 so IF I was betting $100 to win (I'm not) it would be $270 to win $100 in this game one.

HOWEVER - if the play was Chicago which has a M/L of -125 I would be $125 to win 100 right??

Hockey is weird!

MLB is the same except it's called a RUN LINE instead of PUCK LINE...or just SPREAD...(that's what my site calls it).

[Grinder12000]

When you guys are talking losing 30 units that's for the entire chase or of the last game of that chase. A chase is just the framework for individual wagers, if I get hit by a truck those A and B games are gone

When I lose a chase in Stiflers NBA. I lose 10.85 units, not the 18 for the whole chase. I lost those extra units already.

Saying you are betting 600 to win 20 is a very bad thing to say to anybody and is just incorrect. Sure inside the framework of a chase yes but in reality it's just one wager.

[Wallco99]

When you guys are talking losing 30 units that's for the entire chase or of the last game of that chase. A chase is just the framework for individual wagers, if I get hit by a truck those A and B games are gone

When I lose a chase in Stiflers NBA. I lose 10.85 units, not the 18 for the whole chase. I lost those extra units already.

Saying you are betting 600 to win 20 is a very bad thing to say to anybody and is just incorrect. Sure inside the framework of a chase yes but in reality it's just one wager.

Last years losses are in post #1161. Amount lost is posted next to the team.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2012-13 System to date: 1-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +1.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-2.10 units)

(1/30/13):
#2 Minnesota (+1½) v1 (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 1-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0

v2 Plays
(A) 0-1
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0


Games for (1/31/13):
#1 Winnipeg @ Florida (M/L) v2 (B) (7:35 pm EST)
#3 St. Louis @ Columbus (+1½) v1 (A) (7:05 pm EST)
#4 Buffalo (+1½) @ Boston v1 (A) (7:05 pm EST)
#5 Nashville (+1½) @ L.A. Kings v2 (A) (10:35 pm EST)
#6 Colorado (+1½) @ Calgary v2 (A) (9:05 pm EST)
#7 Edmonton (+1½) @ San Jose v1 (A) (10:35 pm EST)


Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. You may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2.

[Grinder12000]

Last years losses are in post #1161. Amount lost is posted next to the team.

Losses: OTT (-10.96 u), EDM (-14.96 u), DET (-22.03 u), MIN (-15.02 u), PHO (-9.61 u)

So those losses are from the entire 3 game chase? Seems low compared to Stiflers NBA but this is only a 3 game as opposed to a 4 game. If those are the entire chase that's not bad at all.(knowing they can go higher but . . . )

[knugen]

Ohlala alot of plays tonight

[Andy3568]

Hey, Wallco. Just checking the scores, Scores & Odds had Nashville as the underdog on the 1/26/13 game against Anaheim, so according to that, they did not lose ATS. Are they still a V2 play? Just wanted to make sure I'm understanding the system.

[samrock67]

Losses: OTT (-10.96 u), EDM (-14.96 u), DET (-22.03 u), MIN (-15.02 u), PHO (-9.61 u)

So those losses are from the entire 3 game chase? Seems low compared to Stiflers NBA but this is only a 3 game as opposed to a 4 game. If those are the entire chase that's not bad at all.(knowing they can go higher but . . . )

It varies from year to year...there are a couple of 30+ unit losses over the course of the backtested results. I believe Wallco said that the average is 20.

[Grinder12000]

I believe Wallco said that the average is 20.

So the average is ABOUT -20 for the ENTIRE Chase then. OK - no worries! It's -18 in Stiflers NBA - you just get to -20 a lot faster in the NHL. Thanks!

[CrazyCarl]

Hey, Wallco. Just checking the scores, Scores & Odds had Nashville as the underdog on the 1/26/13 game against Anaheim, so according to that, they did not lose ATS. Are they still a V2 play? Just wanted to make sure I'm understanding the system.

Thanks Andy.

[merikson]

Hey, Wallco. Just checking the scores, Scores & Odds had Nashville as the underdog on the 1/26/13 game against Anaheim, so according to that, they did not lose ATS. Are they still a V2 play? Just wanted to make sure I'm understanding the system.

I'm showing on Scores & Odds that Nashville was a favorite (M/L -120) against Anaheim on 1/26/13.

01/26

at ANAHEIM

-120

5.5

2-3

L

L

Un

21

3 - 0

22

4 - 0

RINNE

[Andy3568]

Interesting. I see that now on the Nashville page at Scores and Odds. I was looking on the 1/26/13 summary page for all sports, and it showed the M/L as -115 and the P/L as +1.5 (-340).

http://www.scoresandodds.com/grid_20130126.html

[CrazyCarl]

I'm showing on Scores & Odds that Nashville was a favorite (M/L -120) against Anaheim on 1/26/13.

-120

5.5

2-3

L

L

Un

21

3 - 0

22

4 - 0

RINNE

Thanks Merrikson.

[Wallco99]

Losses: OTT (-10.96 u), EDM (-14.96 u), DET (-22.03 u), MIN (-15.02 u), PHO (-9.61 u)

So those losses are from the entire 3 game chase? Seems low compared to Stiflers NBA but this is only a 3 game as opposed to a 4 game. If those are the entire chase that's not bad at all.(knowing they can go higher but . . . )

Yes, three game chase amounts. But as you said, there is always the chance of a much higher loss in NHL and MLB.

[Wallco99]

Hey, Wallco. Just checking the scores, Scores & Odds had Nashville as the underdog on the 1/26/13 game against Anaheim, so according to that, they did not lose ATS. Are they still a V2 play? Just wanted to make sure I'm understanding the system.

Yes it is a play. Thet were favorite (-115) on 1/26/13, regardless of who was getting the +1 1/2.

[Alwarrete]

Hi guys, im new here and im interested in follow this system, but i have a doubt about the odds.
First of all i have to apologize because english is not my mother language (you will see xD) and i will make several mistakes. I hope you can understand it.

If i'm right, this system, the amount depends on the odds since the goal of the system is make the bet to get a unit of profit. But now im checking the odds and i see that almost all of the games have odds around 1.3 - 1.4 (-333.33 - -250). This means that the bet has to be quite big to make a single unit of profit (even more if theres a B or C bet). In NBA the Handicap (ATS) odds always go around the 1.9 (-110) and its quite easier and less risky.
Maybe my error is looking the odds now and not before in the morning. I wanna know if is there this big difference depending on the moment of the day.

For example. Lets says that i wanna make 1€ of profit in any chase.
St. Louis @ Columbus (+1½) .
In bet365 (this is where i bet) the Handicap is 1.52 . So i have to bet 2€ and if the pick goes wrong, the next bet (B bet) will depend on the odd too + the 2€ i've lost in the first bet and the same in case of a C bet.

I wanna know if im right in this example and the first doubt about the odds variaty depending on the moment of the day.


Thanks guys and please excuse my english, im trying to improve.

[ZigZagMan]

Hey Wallco, new to the chase and looking forward to a profitable half season.

I am a bit confused by the betting amounts.

Here's the snippet from the original post:

If your team wins the first bet ((A) bet)), the series is over. If it loses, you will proceed to a (B) bet, wagering the amount you lost in (A) plus whatever profit you were trying to achieve in (A). If (B) bet loses, your (C) bet will be losses from (A) + (B) + profit. If (C) loses, the series is over and we take a loss. Hockey betting can be one of the most expensive sports to lose a 3 game chase, so adjust your wagers accordingly. Generally a loss is around 20 units, many are lower, and some are larger (could be upwards of 30 units). There are generally 150-170 plays in the v1 system, and from my backtesting I have noticed that it is usually around 9 losses before we take a negative for the season. This has only happened once.

So from my understanding, let's say I'm betting on a Flyers chase. In game 1 I bet $50 on the Flyers at +1.5 for -170. They lose.

A Bet Lost: $17
Profit Lost in Bet A: $10

According to the snippet above for my B bet, it'd be the 'amount you lost in (A)' which would be $17, plus 'whatever profit you were trying to achieve in (A)' which would be $10. $17 + $10 = $27.

So according to the above snippet my bet would be $27.

OK, Game 2 I bet $27 on the Flyers +1.5 at -200. I won that game and I take $13.50.

So basically after winning game two you're down $3.50 as you only recovered $13.50 of the $17.50 lost in your A-bet.

Should the original post say wagering to win the amount you lost in (A) plus whatever profit you were trying to achieve in (A)?

[illisdre]

So the average is ABOUT -20 for the ENTIRE Chase then. OK - no worries! It's -18 in Stiflers NBA - you just get to -20 a lot faster in the NHL. Thanks!

interesting thing is it seems games odds are low, ie 1.5+ brings 1.500 odds, or -200
So... you do wager quite a bit for a little return.

Probably already said,, but what unit size are people playing?

[Apathy31]

Hey Wallco, new to the chase and looking forward to a profitable half season.

I am a bit confused by the betting amounts.

Here's the snippet from the original post:

If your team wins the first bet ((A) bet)), the series is over. If it loses, you will proceed to a (B) bet, wagering the amount you lost in (A) plus whatever profit you were trying to achieve in (A). If (B) bet loses, your (C) bet will be losses from (A) + (B) + profit. If (C) loses, the series is over and we take a loss. Hockey betting can be one of the most expensive sports to lose a 3 game chase, so adjust your wagers accordingly. Generally a loss is around 20 units, many are lower, and some are larger (could be upwards of 30 units). There are generally 150-170 plays in the v1 system, and from my backtesting I have noticed that it is usually around 9 losses before we take a negative for the season. This has only happened once.

So from my understanding, let's say I'm betting on a Flyers chase. In game 1 I bet $50 on the Flyers at +1.5 for -170. They lose.

A Bet Lost: $17
Profit Lost in Bet A: $10

According to the snippet above for my B bet, it'd be the 'amount you lost in (A)' which would be $17, plus 'whatever profit you were trying to achieve in (A)' which would be $10. $17 + $10 = $27.

So according to the above snippet my bet would be $27.

OK, Game 2 I bet $27 on the Flyers +1.5 at -200. I won that game and I take $13.50.

So basically after winning game two you're down $3.50 as you only recovered $13.50 of the $17.50 lost in your A-bet.

Should the original post say wagering to win the amount you lost in (A) plus whatever profit you were trying to achieve in (A)?

you bet to win $27 not risk $27

[CrazyCarl]

It's simply a chase, or a 3 game martingale, or whatever you want to call it. No reason to make it complicated. You bet to recover all of your losses as well as one unit, until you are willing to accept a loss (third game).

That is all.