So, I've been following this forum for a few months, and let me say that Wallco is amazing for keeping this up.
Now, I have some thoughts on the system. Please don't jump out and thrash me (I've seen others make suggestions and get criticized for challenging Wallco). I'm not challenging Wallco - he does know what he's doing, obviously. Just some thoughts:
This system is easy, it makes sense, and its intuitive. The only real problem is the exponential loss in units one gets as the 3 game chase goes one. If you loose a C game, you could wash away a month's worth of profit easily. There isn't really a way to get rid of that, but I think we can tilt the calculations more in our favor. The current system calls for a one unit 3 game chase. However, with every extra game the risk exponentially increases, but the payoff remains constant. With every extra game why not increase the units you aim to win to counter-balance the increased risk?
I did a simple model, assuming many constraints. The main assumption is that the line for each game is 1.5, which I made because we take more conservative bets in this system. The first excel sheet I post is the current system, under these constraints. And as Wallco noted in an earlier post, roughly 9 losses equals a loosing season.
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This next system is identical, except its a 3 game chase system where we're trying to win 1 additional unit for each game in the chase (i.e., A games = 1 unit win, B games = 2 unit win, and C games = 3 unit win).
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Notice how we just bought ourselves an extra 2 system losses. And it also makes it theoretically possible to win the season with a 2 game chase, which might be less scary for people with smaller bank rolls.
It becomes even more profitably using a linear multiple of 2.
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This is all theoretical right now, just wondering if others have had these ideas. I'm also not saying that a 1 or 2 unit increase is optimal, just throwing out an idea...
Wallco, I don't know if you can/want to send me your backtesting data, so I may fool around with it. We can also fool around with the data mores in the offseason, as long as you don't mind sharing it with me. Obviously, i'm not interesting in meddling with the system mid-season.
Also, all ya'll Wallco lovers... Please don't thrash me. I enjoy Wallco's work too, and this is not meant to be a critique or a slam or a challenge. I just feel Wallco is doing a lot of work to upkeep this system, and I just didn't want to keep on taking without trying see if the hive mind could help improve.