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Using standard deviation is NOT overanalysing a system. IT SHOULD BE USUAL as Risk of Ruin, Expected Value, and many more...
But since you don't like fancy words, let's keep it simple. Of course, you are not on Wall Street. Sports Betting can profit WAY MORE than Wall Street. But for this you will need basic statistics and probability concepts like standar....
An average of 80 units can come from:
Example A: 3 seasons of 91, 71 and 78 units.
Example B: 3 seasons of 72, -120 and 288 units
System A is stable. System B is not. They both generated the same average.
Your 2006 MLB season (
-147 units) was desastrous for anyone playing it at more than 0.5% for 1 unit. Anyone at 0.75% or 1% would have
GONE BROKE. One at 0.5% would have lost 73% of his roll !!!
That season affected terribly the mean vs standard deviation equilibrium. ( wooo...fancy words again)
What about 2011? Put your ego aside and give me the numbers. I just want to know where this system stands.
You are a great system builder. Again your NHL GOLD and CHASE 110 are more than impressive when analysed with all the fancy concepts you don't want to ear about.
But you already know that...just don't get blinded by your ego.
Try to protect yourself from high volatility.
If you think I bring complex analysis here...take a look at this:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...on-part-i.html
Again, I would appreciate the 2011 season record. MLB is coming and WE ALL are looking to make money.
Only our paths are different.