1. 10-06-11 04:16 PM #1
    hels
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    helsplay 11-12 Season

    Less than 2 hours til puckdrop! This offseason has felt to go on too long but the boys on the ice are back. I'll be keeping track of my plays here. I don't use units, I'll just post cash amounts as typically I play at BetFair and always try to 'sell' the opposite play I want. This gives better odds as someone else is buying their play from you. Example for tonight. I wanted to play the Leafs/Habs U5.5 so I 'layed' a bet for someone to take the Over at odds of 2.14. Somebody took this bet so I am risking $126.54 to win $111 -- Yes I usually do use random numbers when I make a bet on betfair. Other sites I sometimes use are Pinnacle, 5dimes and Bodog so I'll be sure to post what site my plays are from.

    One final thing is betfair takes a commission on winning bets of 5%. For the amount you play you can get discounts to reduce the commission so I'm paying about 4% right now which means IF I win my balance will increase by $106.56 (that's just a guess at the moment) and I will post the after commission winnings when keeping track.

    Screen shot for my O/U play at betfair:

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  2. 10-06-11 04:20 PM #2
    hels
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    October 6, 2 plays so far and maybe a third on the Vancouver game

    Habs/Leafs U5.5 $126.54 to win $111
    Flyers in regulation $66 to win $130.68
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  3. 10-06-11 04:22 PM #3
    hels
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    One final thing, I'm still learning and get information from many sources, including other SBR posters. So let's say viperviper or DG goes on a hot streak I will most likely begin tailing them for a while and making those plays. It's smart common sense in my eyes.
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  4. 10-06-11 09:23 PM #4
    hels
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    2-0 to start the season. I'll post the $ when I'm more sober tomorrow. Hope everyone won tonight.
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  5. 10-07-11 11:28 AM #5
    hels
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    Early play:

    LA ML risking $106.92 to win $99

    BOL everyone!

    Adding Anaheim $85 to win $100
    Last edited by hels; 10-07-11 at 11:56 AM.
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  6. 10-07-11 11:35 AM #6
    hels
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    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    October 6, 2 plays so far and maybe a third on the Vancouver game

    Habs/Leafs U5.5 $126.54 to win $111
    Flyers in regulation $66 to win $130.68
    After commission: $106.56 + 125.44 =$232

    2011-2012 Season 2-0 +232
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  7. 10-07-11 12:35 PM #7
    hels
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    I will definitely be making a play in the Detroit/Ottawa game on the Wings ML. Ottawa will most likely finish in the bottom 3 in the league this year and Detroit is all around a superior team. I've layed a bet against Ottawa's ML at 2.94 to win $122. I've sold $6 at that price so far. I highly suspect that as the day goes on you'll get less and less value on the Wings.

    I know some people would play Detroit -1.5 but I don't like taking home teams at -1.5. Hopefully someone reading this thread knows what the stat is on home favourites winning by 1 compared to visiting favourites winning by greater than 1.
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  8. 10-07-11 03:40 PM #8
    hels
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    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    Early play:
    LA ML risking $106.92 to win $99 BOL everyone!
    Adding Anaheim $85 to win $100
    After commission $99 becomes $95.04 - $85 = $10.04

    YTD = +$242.04

    Pending play on the Red Wings ML tonight.
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  9. 10-07-11 06:28 PM #9
    hels
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    Here's my play on the Wings... game is still 0-0 and I mentioned much earlier so I believe this is still a valid play

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  10. 10-07-11 06:29 PM #10
    hels
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    and I copied the screen like 2 minutes ago which is why the odds are how they are.
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  11. 10-08-11 12:50 PM #11
    hels
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    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    Here's my play on the Wings... game is still 0-0 and I mentioned much earlier so I believe this is still a valid play
    Easy winner with the Wings last night. Gotta make the value plays early in the year as you won't get that kind of value later. Haven't looked at the card yet today but hopefully will have a couple plays tonight.

    After commission $122 becomes a profit of $117.12 + $242.04 = $359.16
    YTD 4-1 +359.16
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  12. 10-08-11 02:24 PM #12
    hels
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    Isles to win in regulation $70.42 to win $100. Florida is going to have a tough time beating this young team and I believe the Islanders should be able to win fairly easily.
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  13. 10-09-11 01:42 PM #13
    hels
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    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    Isles to win in regulation $70.42 to win $100. Florida is going to have a tough time beating this young team and I believe the Islanders should be able to win fairly easily.
    359.16-70.42 = $288.74
    YTD 4-2

    Anyone have thoughts on Pitts at Edm? Pittsburg has showed up to beat both Vancouver and Calgary on the road so far. Edmonton theoretically is the weakest of the 3 Western Canadian teams. Will Pittsburg be fatigued though playing 3 games in 4 nights to start the season? They have had let downs in both of their 3rd period wins so will the energy at Rexall Place give the Oilers greater energy and overwhelm the tired Pens?

    I'm already on Montreal/Peg Under 5.5 $106 to win $100
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