[str]

5. Catalytic- only 3 starts and will have a bunch of traffic to overcome.
It would be incredible if he can do that.
A pass for me.

[str]

6. Just Steel- I think the race would have to set up perfectly for him to be there. And I’m not even sure what would need to happen to help him. I prefer others.

[Easy-Rider 66]

when you reveal your top plays will shoot over the Predicteform take on them. Interested to see how you compare with their take.

[str]

7.Honor Marie - I would not be surprised if he ran very well. Needs the pace collapse like several in here. It he is pretty solid in my book. A contender.

[str]

8. Just a Touch. - nice horse. A lot of upside it looks like. My problem is only 3 starts in a field where many seem to have a chance. Certainly not a shock if he wins but I will pass

[str]

10.-TO Password - I have no Clue on the 10 as I did not in the last Bc classic with the Japanese horse. One of these days one will win but without data, I’m lost so I will toss.

[str]

11. Forever Young - same thing here. Adding to that the difficulty of coming from Dubai that others have had, I will pass and hope this isn’t the year a Japanese horse wins.

They will at some point.

[str]

12. Track Phantom-A speed horse with burners on both sides leaving the gate, and adds Blinkers. Whew.
If he wires these it would be incredible. Or will Rosario take him back and try and lay 4th with the blinkers and get first jump around the far turn?
Too many questions I can’t answer so I will pass.

[str]

13.West Saratoga - it would take a huge step forward to compete in here.
You never know but I will pass.

[str]

14. Endlessly- Never run on the dirt. He is 5 for 6 but I will pass without a dirt effort to lean on.

[str]

15. Domestic Product- I’m not shocked if he wins. In a year with speed a plenty and solid deep closers he could be 7th through 12th early and with a clean trip why not at a big price. I think he has a better chance than his numbers might show.

[str]

16. Grand Mo The First -a win here would certainly surprise me. Doesn’t mean he can’t but I can’t see it.

[str]

17. Fierceness- Fastest horse in here when he runs. Will he with all the speed inside? As good as he is, I don’t think he will make the lead and I can’t trust him from previous races that he will not sulk a little as he has done previously. If he stalks happily it’s his to lose. But as the favorite in a race with plenty of legit contenders I will skip 3-1 and assume he plays the every other race game.
Tough to do because I see him as the best in here but he has to overcome something before I can trust him stalking. So far he has not.

[str]

18. Stronghold- very consistent and he has won over the track.
Nobody is talking about him and all he does is run. Would not shock but I will use others in my top4 picks.

[str]

19. Resilience- would be cool to see a Wood winner run big in the Derby.
Not a shock but I can’t use them all. So I will pass and hope.

[Easy-Rider 66]

my 2 leans 18/19.

[str]

20. Society Man- just too many others to consider. I’ll pass.

[str]

21.Epic Ride- in this game anything can happen but this is another one that I will not use simply because I prefer others

[str]

If I pick four horses I will do so like this

(17. Fierceness no doubt a monster but I will take a hot pace view and assume this will be an off race for the horse who I see as clearly the best.)

Top 4:

2. Sierra Leon
7.Honor Marie
4. Catching Freedom
15. Domestic Product

All deep closers.
I’m betting on a 46 or faster first 1/2 mile and a 1:09 and change or 10 flat 3/4 time. If so, I’ve got a shot.
A slow early pace and my tickets will land on the floor before they reach the stretch. Lol.

Good luck everyone. Enjoy the race.
.

[Easy-Rider 66]

These first few inside slots are considered a tough draw but the running style of this one as a deep closer pretty much negates those worries for me.When it comes to getting buried behind flights, this one was going to do that anyways. Even if he he drew more to the outside, he'd be looking to work hisway over and end up in this spot anyways. With the #1 horse poised to go fast, he should get a stress-free start on the rail and save ground before thework begins of choosing whether to fight through traffic or go inside to out circling the field. When it comes to closers in general, we always consider thatfundamentally dirt racing is all about deceleration (or lack thereof) and as visually impressive as it is to see a runner overtake a field in stretch, it's rarely atrue statement they are "taking the race away" from their rivals completely against their will. It's much more likely there's an element of help involved withan honest race flow causing the better-positioned runners to be backing up. So, he can't spot this field too much leniency as the risk exists of a moreforwardly-placed runner (or more) getting brave late after getting a clean enough trip. With all that said, the $2.3 million purchase is bred and trained torelish the "classic distance" and more often than not, the Derby produces a favorable pace scenario for closers (whether or not they take advantage). Asoft pace on slop should scream forwardly-placed winner all day so the Risen Star win looks very impressive with the 56h/71h score. Stepped it up evenmore in last to trigger a DTOP and even while running fastest 4F/6F of lifetime, still had reserve in the tank to blow by rivals like they were standing stilllate. DTOP is a regressive pattern in general but can often be assessed differently on 3-year olds who are given leniency as the DTOP has a betterchance of signalling peak condition that can be more likely sustained since they are still developing runners and don't yet have an established ceiling likeolder horses do. There's probably little chance this runner isn't storming down the stretch for at least a piece.

Sierrra Leone take from predicteform

[Easy-Rider 66]

Makes his return to the oval that gave him his maiden score as well as notched him a Graded Stakes victory. All of his dirt routes feature double-digitspreads which figures to make him one to watch in stretch. On one hand he's done well to be consistently passing a lot of rivals late despite modest 4F/6Frace flows so a projected hotter pace today is to his advantage fundamentally. On the flipside, you worry how much further out of touch early might thatscenario put him today. This year's edition of the Derby features a lot of strong stretch-running candidates so the prospect of taking advantage of apotential hot pace won't be a hope relegated to his advantage alone, but rather he'd have plenty of competition looking to weave through traffic in thatevent. Does know this oval well though.

Honor Marie take

[Easy-Rider 66]

THX STR going to add Honor Marie to the 19 play.

[str]

These first few inside slots are considered a tough draw but the running style of this one as a deep closer pretty much negates those worries for me.When it comes to getting buried behind flights, this one was going to do that anyways. Even if he he drew more to the outside, he'd be looking to work hisway over and end up in this spot anyways. With the #1 horse poised to go fast, he should get a stress-free start on the rail and save ground before thework begins of choosing whether to fight through traffic or go inside to out circling the field. When it comes to closers in general, we always consider thatfundamentally dirt racing is all about deceleration (or lack thereof) and as visually impressive as it is to see a runner overtake a field in stretch, it's rarely atrue statement they are "taking the race away" from their rivals completely against their will. It's much more likely there's an element of help involved withan honest race flow causing the better-positioned runners to be backing up. So, he can't spot this field too much leniency as the risk exists of a moreforwardly-placed runner (or more) getting brave late after getting a clean enough trip. With all that said, the $2.3 million purchase is bred and trained torelish the "classic distance" and more often than not, the Derby produces a favorable pace scenario for closers (whether or not they take advantage). Asoft pace on slop should scream forwardly-placed winner all day so the Risen Star win looks very impressive with the 56h/71h score. Stepped it up evenmore in last to trigger a DTOP and even while running fastest 4F/6F of lifetime, still had reserve in the tank to blow by rivals like they were standing stilllate. DTOP is a regressive pattern in general but can often be assessed differently on 3-year olds who are given leniency as the DTOP has a betterchance of signalling peak condition that can be more likely sustained since they are still developing runners and don't yet have an established ceiling likeolder horses do. There's probably little chance this runner isn't storming down the stretch for at least a piece.

Sierrra Leone take from predicteform

Makes his return to the oval that gave him his maiden score as well as notched him a Graded Stakes victory. All of his dirt routes feature double-digitspreads which figures to make him one to watch in stretch. On one hand he's done well to be consistently passing a lot of rivals late despite modest 4F/6Frace flows so a projected hotter pace today is to his advantage fundamentally. On the flipside, you worry how much further out of touch early might thatscenario put him today. This year's edition of the Derby features a lot of strong stretch-running candidates so the prospect of taking advantage of apotential hot pace won't be a hope relegated to his advantage alone, but rather he'd have plenty of competition looking to weave through traffic in thatevent. Does know this oval well though.

Honor Marie take

That is the way I saw the race taking shape. You never know but the paper leans that way IMO.

Good luck with your plays EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Ok STR sounds good. Good luck

[mrginandtonic]

Thank you STR; and GL to all who plays!!

[Easy-Rider 66]

close STR. lost BY a whisker. good call.

[mrginandtonic]

What a ride by Brian Hernandez!!

[str]

What a ride by Brian Hernandez!!

He got through and it paid off. Great ride.
Very Nice call Mr. GandT !

[str]

Looking back at the Derby the fractions were fine early but the 1/2 went a little too slow for deep closers and the 3/4 time of 1:11 and change made it even tougher
Dornoch broke poorly and that seemed to allow the pace to not be insane.

The winner ran terrific. Got through , saved ground. Hats off to both horse and rider for running inside and moving right on cue. Also Mr . GandT who has had a couple of real nice picks in the big races lately.

Sierra Leone ran his race. The winner just got a bit too much cushion turning for home.
Sierra did his usual lugging in stuff. We knew he would . He has done it every race. Was he the best horse? Probably. But no excuses . He made his own problems and those will always be there for him to overcome it seems.
The winner took full advantage so for me, he deserved it.

Fierceness did what Fierceness does it seems. Let’s see if he doesn’t show up big next out. Have to think he will.

Both Japanese horses ran very well.
Pretty sure Japan is going to be a major player in the big name races moving forward. They are knocking on the door for sure.

All in all a very entertaining race I thought.

On to the Preakness and I’m already waiting for Mr GandT ‘s picks.
No pressure sir. Just kidding. Great job yesterday.

[mrginandtonic]

Looking back at the Derby the fractions were fine early but the 1/2 went a little too slow for deep closers and the 3/4 time of 1:11 and change made it even tougher
Dornoch broke poorly and that seemed to allow the pace to not be insane.

The winner ran terrific. Got through , saved ground. Hats off to both horse and rider for running inside and moving right on cue. Also Mr . GandT who has had a couple of real nice picks in the big races lately.

Sierra Leone ran his race. The winner just got a bit too much cushion turning for home.
Sierra did his usual lugging in stuff. We knew he would . He has done it every race. Was he the best horse? Probably. But no excuses . He made his own problems and those will always be there for him to overcome it seems.
The winner took full advantage so for me, he deserved it.

Fierceness did what Fierceness does it seems. Let’s see if he doesn’t show up big next out. Have to think he will.

Both Japanese horses ran very well.
Pretty sure Japan is going to be a major player in the big name races moving forward. They are knocking on the door for sure.

All in all a very entertaining race I thought.

On to the Preakness and I’m already waiting for Mr GandT ‘s picks.
No pressure sir. Just kidding. Great job yesterday.

Thank you Sir; I wish I had put more on him; I said it after the Ark Derby where he lost to Muth and Just Steel that he is a major player for the Derby. I thought he ran better than his 3rd placed showed. Should have stick to my guts, and hammered Mystik Dan. I always thought that Sierra Leone is at a disadvantage with his closing style. Although I still made good money with him, but it was one of those occasions where you could have made a killing. But as we all know, hindsight is always 20/20. lol

As for The Preakness, I will most likely miss it since I will be on vacation with the family to Japan and Hong Kong till end of the month. I will give my opinion (most of the time are just wild guess) and hopefully will make some money. Resilience ran 6th but I think if he drew a better post, he should make the superfecta...

Lastly, I agree, I think the Japanese will be ready soon; the way they ran for the past couple of year at Breeders Cup... look out.


GL sir and as always thanking for sharing all your knowledge.

[str]

Boy oh boy has the Preakness lost it's way.

For the triple crown to stay the triple crown, these races will need to be spaced more accurately. Times change, people change, economics of horse values change.

In baseball, there were only day games, then came the lights and just like that, baseball was a night game except for the Cubs . Then, the Cubs got lights and now the day games are usually for opening day, travel purposes, logistics and holidays.

Football expanded and today they play games several days a week, and in different countries. Used to be many fewer games. Next year, probably 18 and THEN the playoffs.

Let's face reality. Owners and trainers attitudes about running every two or three weeks has changed. Maryland has to get rid of the current ownership, which is in the making, get with NY racing, and devise a strategy to rewrite the dates of the triple crown races.

I know this sounds very difficult, but umm , I have thought about it for 10 minutes tops and have come up with

First Saturday in May
First Saturday in June
And July 4th weekend

Now that wasn't so hard was it. This still leaves plenty of time for the Saratoga historic racing as well as the Breeders Cup which could slide one more week it seems.

Is this so hard ??? It still has the effort of stamina and soundness within the dates as well as more time in between races.

If Md. racing keeps it up, the Preakness will risk losing it's G-1 ranking over time. And don't think NY racing wouldn't love to eliminate the Preakness and add the Travers to the select 3 triple crown races. Have you seen the date change of the Belmont that NY racing has proposed? HELLO???

So Maryland, I think you are better than this and racing needs to catch up to the rest of the world. If not, Md. racing might just be on the clock in a not so good way. Here is hoping for the saving of a racing product I loved so much that I spent damn near everyday there for 29 years. Md. Racing. C'mon Man !

[Jellymancan]

Everything changes. The sport needs to adapt like every other sport. Traditions ae great but it's a pretty simple solution as you mentioned str. Space them out.

[Easy-Rider 66]

^Agreed gentlemen. The connections of Mystik Dan on the fence about running him in the Preakness. 4 week lead from Derby and maybe rest is not an issue and he for sure would run. It tarnishes the Process a bit when the Derby winner skips the Preakness. IMO. Let's hope the powers that be listen to the trainers and change the protocols for the Triple Crown.

[JBEX]

Boy oh boy has the Preakness lost it's way.

For the triple crown to stay the triple crown, these races will need to be spaced more accurately. Times change, people change, economics of horse values change.

In baseball, there were only day games, then came the lights and just like that, baseball was a night game except for the Cubs . Then, the Cubs got lights and now the day games are usually for opening day, travel purposes, logistics and holidays.

Football expanded and today they play games several days a week, and in different countries. Used to be many fewer games. Next year, probably 18 and THEN the playoffs.

Let's face reality. Owners and trainers attitudes about running every two or three weeks has changed. Maryland has to get rid of the current ownership, which is in the making, get with NY racing, and devise a strategy to rewrite the dates of the triple crown races.

I know this sounds very difficult, but umm , I have thought about it for 10 minutes tops and have come up with

First Saturday in May
First Saturday in June
And July 4th weekend

Now that wasn't so hard was it. This still leaves plenty of time for the Saratoga historic racing as well as the Breeders Cup which could slide one more week it seems.

Is this so hard ??? It still has the effort of stamina and soundness within the dates as well as more time in between races.

If Md. racing keeps it up, the Preakness will risk losing it's G-1 ranking over time. And don't think NY racing wouldn't love to eliminate the Preakness and add the Travers to the select 3 triple crown races. Have you seen the date change of the Belmont that NY racing has proposed? HELLO???

So Maryland, I think you are better than this and racing needs to catch up to the rest of the world. If not, Md. racing might just be on the clock in a not so good way. Here is hoping for the saving of a racing product I loved so much that I spent damn near everyday there for 29 years. Md. Racing. C'mon Man !

agree 100% str..it hasn't been a race every 2 or 3 week game for I'd say at least 30 years..2 weeks maybe 40 or 50..mean much more if it reflected today's spacing of races and your schedule would work well..I think the series should be called something to reflect the changes ..maybe "the big 3" to reflect 3 races for 3yo..another thought if practical to do would be a compromise in timing..make the preakness 3 weeks after and keep the same spacing to the belmont
..so it means something to run again less than what's normal but not the unrealistic 2 week break..3 race series , 3 weeks apart for 3yo's..like all the 3's and maybe some marketability if they rename the series like suggested above..whatever they'd decide to call it

[JBEX]

you may have seen that deterministic is running in the peter pan on saturday (R6 #7 @ 5-1 ml).. i think this would be the time to play off what you saw in his last race and our overall feeling about the horse..might be a little value there also ..some rain on friday
but looks like it'll be a fast track on saturday