Originally Posted by
Flight
I use the first approach all the time, albeit only for Yes/No will he score a TD. Since it's against Boldin, you will need to measure against him somehow (probably using the same approach). And then I'm not sure how you would handle the "who scores first" part of the prop, perhaps just discard it and compare directly each players probability of scoring at all.
I recommend only using data from this season. I would also look to see if anyone scored 2 TDs in a game and only count it as 1.
In your second method you take 8/8=1 and then discard it.... were you planning on using that for something?