 SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks |
Best Sportsbooks List
|
|
| |||||
| #1 FanDuel | SBR rating 4.8/5 | Review | #6 BetRivers | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review | #2 Caesars | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #7 Fanatics | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review |
| #3 DraftKings | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #8 Betway | SBR rating 3.8/5 | Review | ||
| #4 BetMGM | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #9 Borgata | SBR rating 3.5/5 | Review | ||
| #5 bet365 | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #10 ClutchBet | SBR rating 2.9/5 | Review | ||
What is the best approach for money management?
How do you maximize "hot streaks" from sources I pick from and minimize choppy or unproductive streaks?
Up one unit after a win and down one after a loss? While "targeting" a set amount.
The goal is to make a set amount of units and then reset all variables to the begining.
Is there a approach that can help?
Alas and alack, one never knows when a hot or a cold streak is about to begin or about to stop.......
Originally Posted by Peep
There is always spring time and one can setup qualifying filters to see wihich flowers will grow the fastest to a peak......
"You can never squeeze every drop of juice out of an orange. Enjoy the nice full glass you do have."--MadTiger 3:16
And you could never worry about anything and not ever get anywhere.....
Be over-cautious and be very, very afraid of losing.
I guess theres twoways of looking at everything.....
Buy CDs, stay away from stocks or this stuff.How do you maximize "hot streaks" from sources I pick from and minimize choppy or unproductive streaks?
Up one unit after a win and down one after a loss? While "targeting" a set amount.
The goal is to make a set amount of units and then reset all variables to the begining.
Is there a approach that can help?
|
|
Damn Lou you could switch that picture...
Lou you look like the kind of guy who places bet sizes anywhere from 1 dime to 10 dimes on a regular basesHow do you maximize "hot streaks" from sources I pick from and minimize choppy or unproductive streaks?
Up one unit after a win and down one after a loss? While "targeting" a set amount.
The goal is to make a set amount of units and then reset all variables to the begining.
Is there a approach that can help?
Don't do that
Flat Staking + Bet Single.
That's it!
This is not Players Talk.Flat Staking + Bet Single.
That's it!
By the way, how many people believe hot and cold streaks actually exist?
Depends on what you're talking about. I don't think you can have "hot streak" in multiple sports, i.e. you're doing well in NBA which means you should bet more on your NHL selections. But I certainly believe in hot streaks if you win 5 hands in a row in a single deck blackjack game with a high count.
Source- Jeff Benton Free plays I would consider this a hot streak how about you???
FREE-PLAY SCORECARD
51-23-2 last 76 days
41-18-2 last 61 days
38-16-2 last 56 days
32-13-2 last 47 days
12-1 last 13 days
Why do you ask questions if you only want your answers?
You cannot predict cold streaks or hot streaks. Your filter idea is better used for things like away games, home games, back to back games, ect where you can instead get a clue on the probability of your bet winning, and wagering the proper amount.
Why do you chime in when you have nothing productive to say
Certainly you cannot predict streaks but you can anticipate them since they surely happen.
The definition of hot or cold streak is usually where the debate is. Having someone pick 5 winners in a row (on a 50-50 proposition) can be defined as a hot streak. In this definition then they do exist.
But that's not useful unless having picked 5 in a row implies that they are more likely to get the 6th pick correct. That is what I'd call a hot streak. This I've never been able to verify.
I have seen a few studies where people have attempted to spot hot streaks and conclude they can't. The earliest of these was about 40 years ago in Scientific Magazine. A guy charted free throws shot by players on the Philadelphia 76ers in an attempt to show that some players got hot. He failed.
Ever since then I've wanted to find some documentation that streaks exist (because I intuitively believe it I guess), but haven't. hence the question.
I think I know the article you are talking about. I agree with you intuitively - having played sports, you definitely "feel" like you can get hot and cold. I've really wondered about it ever since seeing this video of Lebron just become unconscious: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyd4NPvzKQg
How can you tell me that he wasn't on a hot streak there? But the statistical analysis doesn't seem to agree.
re: sports betting, I think that if you have a model that gets "hot" during certain stretches for various reasons. But if you're just picking games out of the air like most people, then no - I don't believe streaks exist.
If you are not comfortable with Kelly or fractional Kelly. just used flat percentage of bankroll. That way, your bets get naturally larger when you are hot and smaller when you are cold.
All in every play is the only way
I will preface this by saying I haven't bet 1 penny on NBA this year. However, I have an NBA "method" I'm tracking that has enough plays to consider it a valid experiment. While NBA has been inticing from a W/L aspect, I've found it to be rewarding in another respect. It has allowed me to evaluate a money management system that has always intrigued me.
While tracking my "method", I've viewed it from a perspective of flat betting and progressive betting. The progressive betting included betting 8% of bankroll and increasing it on a daily basis. The Flat-betting included betting a flat $100 unit. I chose 8% because I calculated a 58% winning percentage from the onset.
After 248 wagers on both sides and totals, I'm showing a 59% winning advantage (148 wins, 100 losses). Using the "flat-betting" method show a profit of $1900. ($100 units,starting with a $1000 bankroll).
Using the same criteria of games, the progressive betting method produced $5,2163 in profit.....starting with the same bankroll.
I've come to the conclusion that anyone who uses a flat-betting method is severly limiting their abilty to increase their profits.
I'm not here to preach any particular method, but I'd encourage anyone seriously interested in making money at this, shoud investigate any method that allows progressive money management as a premise.
Last edited by ScreaminPain; 04-03-10 at 10:24 AM.
First off, hitting 59% is a guaranteed winner. The reason you have a bigger profit with the progressive system is that your average bet was bigger in the progressive system, hence bigger profits. However, if you look at the average bet sizes, you will find that your average bet is more on the losing games than it was on the winning games. This is like a reverse dollar cost averaging on the stock market.
However, if you are starting with a fixed bankroll and have a system with a positive expectation on each wager, then a progressive system like yours (or Kelly criteria) is the best way to maximize the growth. It's also the only way to keep from going bust if you truly have a fixed bankroll.
First of all, like some have said, you must define a "streak". Here is the results of my football wagers from the time I started posting here last season, until the end of my wagering last season. L-2, W-4, L-1, W-1, L-1, W-5, L-2, W-1, L-2, W-5, L-2, W-2, L-1, W-4, L-1, W-4, L-3, W-2, L-1, W-1, L-1, W-1, L-1. I dod not include the two pushes I had. So as you can see, things were very choppy at the end of the season and in the bowl games, but during the regular season, I had two 5 game in streaks, three 4 game win streaks, and one 3 game losing streak. During the regular season I had 6 streaks of winning or losing 3 games or more, and 6 times I either won or lost one at a time.
As far as a progressive money system goes, that only works IF you have a lot of long winning streaks. If you win 2, lose 1, win 2, lose one, etc...you can actually lose money even though you have a high winning percentage. By looking at my history from last year, I would have done well in th eearly part of the season using a progressibe system, but I would have lost big time at the end of the wagering season, when things got choppy.
LT has a very easy system if you are not comfortable with a sophisticaed system. Just bet a fixed percentage of your bank roll. That will fluctuate depending on if you are winning or losing.
Never bet more than 3% of your roll on any game, unless the game is a LOCK, then you can go up to 50% of your roll on it.
|
|
You earned a point for having the stupidest post of the day.
You earned a point for having little to no sense of humor.
You didn't really earn a point, I'm keeping it.
Arr in every time!!!
oh man! hurry up and sign me up for this one
For 7 points a day I will be sure to send it you you via PM so you won't miss out.... Ok?
1) The wheel
2) Statistics
One of these 2 important discoveries occurred 10,000 years before the other. Why? Because one of them is tricky and hard to see for us humans. There are now books to help one understand that which we cannot clearly see and which is not intuitive to our species. Or you can go ride a bike.
1) No +800
2) Yes -1300
One of these 2 scenerios occurred tonight. odds on this guy passing out with a beer in his hand tonight.
Good one sir, fair enough, I'll anticipate the next beer tonight while you can anticipate the next winning streak
Reply With Quote
IrishTim gave Wrecktangle 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
