A gentleman at the bar bet me $1000 on the patriots straight up, he's taking the Pats. I could play the pats for $700 and guarantee short money or rebet the $1k on the spread and hope for the four point middle. Lands 3 ten percent of the time and this is even better. Gut tells me bet $1k spread> ride $1k ml ev> go for the skinny arb. Any thoughts on this? Thanks.