I was wondering if any can provide an educated guess as to how much advantage is gained in 1st quarter wagering depending on who gets the ball first.
Suppose Team A is +0.5 -110, and Team B is -0.5 -110 and that the lines accurately reflect a 50% chance of winning on each side.
What I would like to know is about how much the chances of winning increase if you know they are getting the ball first. My guess (without any supporting data) would be around a 10% increase to 60% for the team getting the ball first.
This is based on a 50% probability of the team getting the ball first having an extra COMPLETED drive by the end of the quarter.
Does my number sound reasonable, or do you think it's too high or too low? Does anyone have any actual data to support their number? Of course, this also applies to 3rd quarter betting.