As we roll through the heart of the college football season, each team reveals more about itself by the week and each game offers a chance for the most observant bettors to take advantage of what they learn. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are the best bets for Week 8 of the college football season (All times ET): No. 16 NC State Wolfpack at No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-17.5)
3:30 p.m., Saturday, ESPN Fallica: The 5-0 Wolfpack are 17.5-point underdogs at No. 3 Clemson. History says that might not be enough points though, as dating back to 1994 none of the last eight teams that were 5-0 or better and were an underdog of more than 14 points in a road game covered the spread. I know each of the last two years have seen close games, but the NC State personnel, especially on the defensive side of the ball, is dramatically different.
Lost in all the talk of Kelly Bryantand Trevor Lawrence is the fact Travis Etienne has rushed for 163.5 yards per game and 9 touchdowns on 10.2 yards per carry over the last four games. And despite the narrative that Clemson has been disappointing, the metrics tell a different story, as the Tigers lead the nation in defensive efficiency and defensive EPA. The drive toward the College Football Playoff starts now.
12 p.m., Saturday, ESPNU Coughlin: The Bearcats are one of eight undefeated teams remaining at the FBS level, and they are getting points. That doesn't make sense. I'll take the favorite.
ATS pick: Temple Score: Temple 27, Cincinnati 19
Fallica: Cincinnati is an undefeated underdog, granted it has come against FPI's 118th-rated schedule. The Owls got a good road win at Navy last week and have a good enough defense that should be able to get enough stops against a Cincinnati offense that averages 255.5 YPG on the ground. The emergence of QB Anthony Russo since the 0-2 start has given the Owls offense a different dimension, so even if RB Ryquell Armstead can't go, Temple should put up points. Cincinnati is the first team at least 6-0 to be an underdog on the road vs a team with at least three losses since Utah was a 6-point 'dog at USC in 2015. The 3-3 Trojans beat the Utes 42-24 that night. I expect the three-loss team to emerge victorious again.
7 p.m., Saturday, ESPN2 Coughlin: We know UCF will continue to try for style points in its wins, so you figure as a 21-point favorite, the Knights will try to score as many points as possible. They come in averaging over 42 a game and ECU has given up 42 and 49 in the past two weeks to offenses that aren't on the level of McKenzie Milton& Co. Plus, ECU head coach Scottie Montgomery said true freshman quarterback Holton Ahlers will start for the first time as he led the team to two fourth-quarter scoring drives last week. We see a lot of points being scored between these two teams. Take the over.
3:30 p.m., Saturday, Big Ten Network Coughlin: This just has to happen ... doesn't it? Minnesota comes in off a game where plenty of people were impressed with how it hung with Ohio State, only to lose 30-14. On the other side, Nebraska suffered its most gut-wrenching loss of the year last week and still doesn't have a win. The Cornhuskers have the talent on offense, scoring at least 24 points in every game except one that quarterback Adrian Martinez has started. They just have below-average talent on defense. So we'll call for the Cornhuskers to win and cover in a game that goes over the total.
Picks: Nebraska and over the total 56 points Score: Nebraska 38, Minnesota 34 Auburn Tigers (-3.5) at Ole Miss Rebels
12 p.m., Saturday, ESPN Coughlin: This line just sticks out to me. The Ole Miss defense feels like the perfect thing for Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham and his offense to see a week after their worst performance and loss last week to Tennessee, which coming in had lost 11 SEC games in a row. The Tigers are off to their worst start in conference play since 2015, when they also started 1-3. I just trust Gus Malzahn and his staff can get this win and head into their bye week with a good feeling. Look for Stidham to have a monster day against a below-average Rebels secondary.
7:30 p.m., Saturday, No TV Steele: UAB is 9-0 straight up and 8-0-1 ATS at home since its return to the field last year. This game is the fourth road contest in six weeks for North Texas, and the Blazers have won four straight games, giving up only 14 total points in their past three games. Last week, the Blazers outgained Rice by nearly 300 yards (482-186) and shut out the Owls on the road to win 42-0.
UAB has now held its past two foes to a season-low in total yards. North Texas enters off a 30-7 win over Southern Miss where it led only 10-7 at the half, and its last touchdown came with 33 seconds left. Mean Green quarterback Mason Fine has completed 65 percent of his passes with a 16-to-1 ratio, but now faces a Blazers secondary that I rate as my No. 26 pass efficiency defense, as they allow opposing quarterbacks to complete only 42 percent of their passes. UAB gives up only 284 yards per game and has held foes to 156 yards per game below their season average in conference play. These teams have faced one mutual opponent: UAB beat Louisiana Tech on the road 28-7; North Texas lost to Louisiana Tech at home 29-27. UAB is the stronger team, and it will be at home.
8 p.m., Saturday, Pac-12 Network Steele: I have these teams rated almost identical on offense, defense and special team, but USC has faced the tougher schedule. I feel the spread should be three points at the most, but USC is getting almost a full touchdown. In Utah's last two games, it blew out Stanford and Arizona by a combined score of 82-31. Stanford was without running back Bryce Love, and the Cardinal had a 28-22 edge in first downs. Last week, Arizona lost quarterback Khalil Tate to injury in the first quarter.
USC suffered blowout road losses this year at Stanford and Texas, but despite losing by a combined 54-17 in those games, it was only minus-two on first downs. Those two early losses were the first two road starts for true freshman quarterback JT Daniels, and this will be his fourth road start. Those are the reasons we are getting extra line value here. USC has won five of the eight meetings between the two, and Utah's three wins in the series were all by four points or fewer. I will take the line value on USC in what looks like a toss-up game.
8 p.m., Saturday, Pac-12 Network Steele: I have these teams rated almost identical on offense, defense and special team, but USC has faced the tougher schedule. I feel the spread should be three points at the most, but USC is getting almost a full touchdown. In Utah's last two games, it blew out Stanford and Arizona by a combined score of 82-31. Stanford was without running back Bryce Love, and the Cardinal had a 28-22 edge in first downs. Last week, Arizona lost quarterback Khalil Tate to injury in the first quarter.
USC suffered blowout road losses this year at Stanford and Texas, but despite losing by a combined 54-17 in those games, it was only minus-two on first downs. Those two early losses were the first two road starts for true freshman quarterback JT Daniels, and this will be his fourth road start. Those are the reasons we are getting extra line value here. USC has won five of the eight meetings between the two, and Utah's three wins in the series were all by four points or fewer. I will take the line value on USC in what looks like a toss-up game.
2:30 p.m., Saturday, No TV Steele: Last year Marshall was minus-four in turnovers and lost by five points on the road to the Owls. Florida Atlantic is 0-3 on the road this year, including a loss at Middle Tennessee State as a favorite. Marshall running back Tyler Kinghas rushed for 530 yards, and his 6.1 yards per carry is better than the more highly touted Devin Singletary, who rushes for 4.8 YPC this year. Marshall head coach Doc Holiday is 37-15 straight up at home, and FAU is 7-21 SU on the road the past five years.
Marshall has the stronger defense, giving up just 3.0 YPC and a 57 percent completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. FAU's defense checks in at 4.7 YPC and 69.8 percent completions allowed. My power ratings have Marshall favored at home, and the Thundering Herd are getting a full field goal, making them a home underdog with the stronger defense.
7:30 p.m., Saturday, SEC Network Steele: Kentucky won on the road 44-21 last year in a game it led 34-7 as an underdog. This Kentucky team is the strongest I have seen in quite some time, and it dominated Florida, Mississippi State and South Carolina at the line of scrimmage with an average rushing yard edge of 242-104. Vanderbilt faced Florida, Georgia and South Carolina and was outgained by an average of 261-112 on the ground. The Commodores were also outgained by 243 yards per game overall in those games.
Vanderbilt is on a 1-10 ATS run versus SEC teams. Kentucky is at home and coming off an overtime loss to Texas A&M and figures to be in a vengeful mood. Look for Kentucky to dominate the line of scrimmage as the Wildcats are fresh off a bye. Vanderbilt is playing for an eighth straight week, is coming off two physical beatdowns by ranked opponents and now has to travel.
3:30 p.m., Saturday, CBS Sports Network Steele: Last year, Houston came in after its bye to face option-offense teams, Tulane and Navy, in consecutive weeks. The Cougars held Navy to a season-low 291 total yards but only won 24-14 at home. Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo is 46-12 SU at home, and the home team is 3-0 ATS in this series as AAC rivals. Houston is now on the second week of back-to-back away games, is seeing the option for the first time this year and is coming off a game where its defense faced 63 pass attempts against East Carolina. The Pirates also gained nine more first downs than Houston (27-18) last week, but the Cougars benefited from plus-four in turnovers to win by 22 points.
Even with that win, Houston is 2-8 ATS as a road favorite, and this is the second straight long trip to the East Coast for the Cougars. Navy is also 5-1-1 ATS as a home underdog. Houston trailed Rice in the third quarter and trailed Tulsa 26-17 in the fourth quarter. Navy's defense is holding teams to 19 yards per game below their season average, and even with defensive tackle Ed Oliver, Houston is allowing teams 100 yards per game above their season average. With a 2-4 record, Navy has its back against the wall in a must-win game and could very well pull off the upset.
Fallica: Can Arizona State win on first down? Stanford is averaging just 3.35 yards per carry on first down this year, which is 121st in the country. The Cardinal really should be entering this game on a three-game losing streak and have been pushed around and committed unaccustomed turnovers the last couple of weeks. But ASU has been a tough out all season long, and at home after an off week following a tough loss in Boulder, I like the Sun Devils here. They have already beaten a defensive-minded team that has struggled to run the ball this season (Michigan State) and have a great shot to pick up win No. 4 on the year with Manny Wilkins and the passing game.
ATS pick: Arizona State Score: Arizona State 26, Stanford 24
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