Polson What plays do You see Today??(Wed)
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10-28-09 10:45 AM #246
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10-28-09 04:20 PM #247
I think that it could also work for any game no matter if it's a televised game or not.. I don't want to hurt nobody here, I'm also new to this forum and I respect all of you guys, sometimes no matter what you say, because this is a culture for you.. you practically burned already knowing what was a favorite and an underdog.. or a money line or point spread...
I had to learn everything but, I thing that it wasn't that bad because that way, you'll always be impartial with your thoughts regarding any any program at the moment you're going to make a pick.. I think that the main problem why we haven't create yet, an accurate way to beat the books, has more to be with the fanaticism.
Some of you that want to be recognized as great handicappers, but sometimes you don't have the balls to bet against YOUR favorite teams..
I like this method.. actually I've being practicing so far during all this season and It has worked for me, not exactly for all my parlays but I just wanted to detect like the climax day from the lines for me to better make my final picks.. That way I would make a lot of money, what is the main reason why we're all here, right??
I use to wait until Friday and then as the line moves I use to make the picks.. now I'll try to pick them on Wednesday to see if I could be even more accurate as I'm now..
You see; you can always learn something new..
Cheers and best of luck to all of you
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10-28-09 05:01 PM #248
i'll have a look at brodds.com for picks.
yes, the 11-4 record last week assumed you watched like a hawk and there was no "JUMP" in the line. and it also assumes the line doesn't move one point and then go back two more points and play in the opposite direction.
i don't know how much traffic there is on ball state-bowling green (hypothetical game), but i don't think it would take too many people to take the excess profit out of this strategy (if any exists to start with)
i hate to say this, but with some people highly skeptical of this strategy (which is fair), i've thought of just tracking it myself and not contributing here. in fact, if it's a great strategy, that would be probably be optimal personally.. but i do like to share and appreciate all the assistance i've had on this forum (especially cakasmalloy starting this thread)
obviously when i go on sbrodds now, we may have missed the 1 point movement. mostly i've been tracking this to see if it works and make a few small bets on it.
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10-28-09 05:06 PM #249
not too many plays right now if you apply the strict criteria (not totally sure what the all original criteria were though... do we play any 1+ point move)
so i think you have to play bigger moves or be creative and play 0.5 point moves. i think eventually you have to apply some judgement to these types of systems. tailor it for your own use.
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10-28-09 05:30 PM #250
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10-28-09 08:06 PM #251
This thread is a very interesting read. Look forward to tracking this along with y'all.
Thanks for the input...DB
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10-29-09 08:55 AM #252
N.Ill
Kent St
AirForce
FresnoSt
NTexas
These are the plays for this week (I am using 1.5pt shift or more in one direction with no opposite line movement after initial 1.5). I would still suggest taking them at the current lines if you have not already. Good luck.
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10-29-09 09:08 AM #253
N.Ill
Kent St
AirForce
FresnoSt
NTexas
These are the plays for this week (I am using 1.5pt shift or more in one direction with no opposite line movement after initial 1.5). I would still suggest taking them at the current lines if you have not already. Good luck.
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10-29-09 05:32 PM #254
Ye I have always loved hitting those lines that the avaerge bettors and amateurs stay away from. With most newbies, they love to be able to watch big BCS teams duke it out on national tv. The big money is in these much smaller games that go under the radar. Lets see what you have planned for this week?
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10-31-09 09:20 PM #255
N.Ill
Kent St
AirForce
FresnoSt
NTexasPoints Awarded:
ACoochy gave cakasmaloy 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.hunter8720 gave cakasmaloy 8 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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10-31-09 09:49 PM #256
cakas, great stuff........ it's working very well, seemingly every week...
anyway, when i was doing my own calculations last week, i think i forgot something. are you putting great emphasis on early move vs. later move? i think i forgot that you put alot of emphasis on the early move.
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10-31-09 11:27 PM #257
playing against western kentucky seems to be a play every week
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11-01-09 12:07 AM #258
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11-01-09 04:33 AM #259
For the record, i am using 1.5+ pt movements. i posted that earlier but im just clarifying.
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11-01-09 03:23 PM #260
I'm trying to back test this, but can't find historical intra-week line movements. The best I can find are opening and closing spreads which doesn't help for this strategy. WagerTracker is incomplete and I only see 2009 data on that site. Anyone know where I can find intra-week line change data for the past few years?
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11-01-09 07:50 PM #261
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11-01-09 08:00 PM #262
i'd be up for a a little backtesting i can find the historical daily line data
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11-02-09 07:50 AM #263
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11-02-09 08:00 AM #264
I'm not sure if this is what you mean but take a look here:
Originally Posted by JGun
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Scores/NCAAF+Odds/20061014.aspx
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11-02-09 11:21 AM #265
N.Texas PICK or -1 if u missed the boat.
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11-02-09 11:27 AM #266
yeah that link should provide all the info needed to back test. Originally Posted by smitch124
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11-03-09 12:11 PM #267
UAB
ArkSt
UNLV
NTexas
Take them all at current lines.Points Awarded:birdman779 gave cakasmaloy 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.keyboarding gave cakasmaloy 10 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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11-03-09 12:57 PM #268
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11-03-09 01:19 PM #269
I put some money on these games. Best of luck, everyone. Originally Posted by cakasmaloy
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11-03-09 01:25 PM #270
I'll tail. Good Luck Guys!
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11-03-09 01:36 PM #271
I'm aboard, just for fun
GL ALL.
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11-03-09 02:03 PM #272
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11-03-09 03:02 PM #273
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11-03-09 03:34 PM #274
THKS CAKA, I'm in ,let's make some bucks this week!
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11-03-09 08:27 PM #275
caka,
I've played your picks for the past two weeks and cashed. Thanks alot. Alot of people would love to find something like this and keep it to themselves. why did you want to share it with others, and do you think if enough people start following this will it effect the spread?Points Awarded:Cubs2240 gave mulligann1 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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11-03-09 10:13 PM #276
I have been following his advice for the last 3 weeks and have done very well myself.
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11-04-09 03:06 AM #277
Originally Posted by smitch124
Excellent -- I'm done with 2007 and half way through 2008. I will post my results here when I complete the backtesting. So far it is above 50% historically, however, it doesn't seem to be as winning a strategy in the past years as it is this season.
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11-04-09 03:07 AM #278
This game is nationally televised Sunday night on ESPN... Originally Posted by cakasmaloy
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11-04-09 06:44 AM #279
you are basing that on the closing lines. these bets are being placed on early line moves by wednesday. The results can not be accurately measured using closing lines
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11-04-09 07:14 AM #280
Originally Posted by JGun
you are basing that on the closing lines. these bets are being placed on early line moves by wednesday. The results can not be accurately measured using closing lines
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