[Shagdogy]

The thing about Efrain keeping it standing is that Oliveira will be one of the few MMA fighters to pull guard if he can't get it to the ground. Common sense says that the wrestler wins by decision via lay-n-pray, or the BJJ guy subs him. IMO this fight WILL hit the mat. We know Oliveira will be busy, the question is whether or not Efrain will be. Now that he's 4 lbs. over, I'm like your strategy more Vaughany. If he gasses, he will go to his bread and butter and wrestle without causing any damage.

[Shagdogy]

Joined you on both the Oliveira/Escudero and Pearson TKO/Pearson decision straddles. Added Palhares by TKO/KO at +2075. Total long shot, but he's heavy handed. I expect to lose that one, but if I win it.... hell yeah. Good luck!

[Vaughany]

Joined you on both the Oliveira/Escudero and Pearson TKO/Pearson decision straddles. Added Palhares by TKO/KO at +2075. Total long shot, but he's heavy handed. I expect to lose that one, but if I win it.... hell yeah. Good luck!

Nice one, yee you never know, Palhares might catch him and TKO him, definite value at +2000 range!

[Eccocide]

Nice one, yee you never know, Palhares might catch him and TKO him, definite value at +2000 range!

Not sure why ppl see value in this play. Palhares has 1 TKO in his career and it was because his opponent was injured and couldnt continue and Marquardt has been TKOed once by Anderson Silva....Palhares has some power but its not flash KO power and Marquardt has a solid chin. Sure anything can happen but I just can't see it. Now that I say that it will prolly happen .

[koscheckbaby]

The thing about that Palhares by TKO/KO wager is Palhares doesn't even try strikes or ground and pound. I can see why the odds are that high

[Vaughany]

Not sure why ppl see value in this play. Palhares has 1 TKO in his career and it was because his opponent was injured and couldnt continue and Marquardt has been TKOed once by Anderson Silva....Palhares has some power but its not flash KO power and Marquardt has a solid chin. Sure anything can happen but I just can't see it. Now that I say that it will prolly happen .

Yee I wouldnt make the play personally and wen I say great value I mean that if u put a dollar on u could win 20 back and its not gonna matter if u lose the dollar so worth a pop! There probly is less than 10% chance of it happening tho.

[lasker]

Less than 10% is still excellent value as long as it's at least 5%.

[Shagdogy]

Agree with all of you here. Like I said on my thread, my hopes lie with Oliveira and Pearson. The Palhares TKO bet was simply because that fight has me confused, I didn't like any of the lines really, and it gives me a long shot to hope for. More for entertainment value and hope than my actually aspiration of cashing on it.

[Vaughany]

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 22 PLAYS:

Straddle 1: 2 units on Palhares at +200 to win 4 units (plus stake); and 1.15 units on Marquardt by decision at +175 to win 2 units (plus stake)

Straddle 2: 2 units on Gleison Tibau at +137.5 to win 2.75 units (plus stake); and 2.5 units on Jim Miller by decision at +200 to win 5 units (plus stake)

Straddle 3: 1.7 units on Charles Oliveira by submission at +550 to win 9.35 units (plus stake); and 1 unit on Efrain Escudero by decision at +275 to win 2.75 units (plus stake)

Straddle 4: 1.5 units on Ross Pearson by TKO/KO at +300 to win 4.5 units (plus stake); and 0.9 units on Ross Pearson to win by decision at +175 to win 1.575 units.

Best case scenario for me would be Palhares winning, J.Miller winning by decision, Oliveira submission win, and Pearson winning by TKO/KO.

Wow really didnt expect that Pearson outcome, and just can't believe what Paul Harris did...seriously dumb! Fortunately ended up in positive units thanks to 'Da Bronx' Oliveira but no way near what I was hoping for and expecting!...

Total Stake: 13 units
Total Return: 18.55 units
Profit: 5.55 units

[Eccocide]

Can never complain about a positive night, GJ!

[illmatick]

Yep this is true and the reason why I put less than 2 units on Oliveira by sub even tho ther was great value at +550. My concern is that Efrain may want to keep this standing after what happened in the Dunham fight and after seeing how easily Oliveira subbed Elkins...the problem with this happening is a) like u said Efrain could end up TKO'ing Oliveira which would screw the straddle or b) for all we know Oliveira might be more elusive and may utilise jabs and leg kicks on the outside (he has strong leg kicks and he wont mind being taken down if Escudero catches a kick as he'll be full of confidence from his back after the Elkins win) and may end up winning a decision himself which would also screw the straddle! However, that KO of Cole Miller was the first TKO/KO of his career and IMO Cole Miller has terrible stand up, especially defensively, while Oliveira has never lost by TKO/KO or in any other way! In the Edu Pachu fight - his toughest test yet, he showed that he can take some heavy shots.

great job vaughany, you nailed this one

I was most impressed with Oliveira's striking defense, the way he was deflecting most of Efrain's hooks caught me by surprise....covered up real well

kid's gonna be beast in another few years

[snake11eyes]

Total Stake: 13 units
Total Return: 18.55 units
Profit: 5.55 units

Nice job Vaughany, keep up the good work.

[BIGDAY]

Nicely done Vaughany!

[Vaughany]

Cheers guys!

Looking forward to 119 now, the main card is one of the best of the year IMO. Especially cant wait for Stephens vs Guillard and Cro-Cop vs Mir. Still not sure whether Im going to make a play on Mir, I told myself a while ago that Id never bet on Mir again as Im self-admittedly a Mir 'fanboy' but I truly believe that this is Mir's fight to lose. I dont think the stand up advantage is very great at all for Cro-Cop, my only worry is tht Mirko has a vicious short left uppercut that he likes to throw when in the clinch which Mir is rather susceptible to as we saw in the Carwin fight. Already have Mir in two parlays so may jus leave it at that, enjoy the fight without much at stake and put more money on fights that im more certain on. At the moment my biggest play will be Sherk/Dunham to decision if I can get it better than Evens on paddypower. Also, Lytle/Serra to decision, which I expect to be 5/6 on PP but might get lucky and get it at Evens. Guillard by decision and Stephens to win (straddle) is also a potential bet. Regarding single bets, I'm leaning Doerksen at the +275 value, already have him in a parlay but may have to put a single bet on him at that value. Also like Tony Lopez, Bader, Grant and Mitrione.

[Shagdogy]

I'm with you on Mitrione, Sherk/Dunham to decision, and Serra/Lytle to decision. Like those three. I also like the play on Doerkson, though you might as well take him by submission IMO. We've seen that CB is open to subs, and this fight will almost definitely spend some time on the ground. Straddle that with Dollaway by TKO maybe.

I can't decide right now on Mir v. CroCop. I think positionally, Mir can dominate CroCop on the ground, however, unless he rocks him Mir probably won't sub CroCop. Give CroCop three rounds to strike and I think he could put something together for Mir for sure. Right now I don't have a strong feeling either way on this one.

[Vaughany]

I'm with you on Mitrione, Sherk/Dunham to decision, and Serra/Lytle to decision. Like those three. I also like the play on Doerkson, though you might as well take him by submission IMO. We've seen that CB is open to subs, and this fight will almost definitely spend some time on the ground. Straddle that with Dollaway by TKO maybe.

I can't decide right now on Mir v. CroCop. I think positionally, Mir can dominate CroCop on the ground, however, unless he rocks him Mir probably won't sub CroCop. Give CroCop three rounds to strike and I think he could put something together for Mir for sure. Right now I don't have a strong feeling either way on this one.

I agree that it makes sense to go with Doerkson by sub at better odds but ive only got paddypower and bet365 accounts and paddypower only does props for the main card, bet365 none at all. Otherwise Id definitely do Dolloway by decision or TKO depending on odds with Doerkson by sub.

[Vaughany]

Cheers guys!

Looking forward to 119 now, the main card is one of the best of the year IMO. Especially cant wait for Stephens vs Guillard and Cro-Cop vs Mir. Still not sure whether Im going to make a play on Mir, I told myself a while ago that Id never bet on Mir again as Im self-admittedly a Mir 'fanboy' but I truly believe that this is Mir's fight to lose. I dont think the stand up advantage is very great at all for Cro-Cop, my only worry is tht Mirko has a vicious short left uppercut that he likes to throw when in the clinch which Mir is rather susceptible to as we saw in the Carwin fight. Already have Mir in two parlays so may jus leave it at that, enjoy the fight without much at stake and put more money on fights that im more certain on. At the moment my biggest play will be Sherk/Dunham to decision if I can get it better than Evens on paddypower. Also, Lytle/Serra to decision, which I expect to be 5/6 on PP but might get lucky and get it at Evens. Guillard by decision and Stephens to win (straddle) is also a potential bet. Regarding single bets, I'm leaning Doerksen at the +275 value, already have him in a parlay but may have to put a single bet on him at that value. Also like Tony Lopez, Bader, Grant and Mitrione.

UFC 119 Plays:

Prop: 2 units on Lytle/Serra to decision at Evens to win 2 units (plus stake);

I see this fight being similar to the first one except with a few more punches being thrown. Both fighters have been saying in interviews that they are going to put on a stand-up show, go for broke, brawl etc... but I'm not convinced. Both fighters are proud veterans who will not be as wild as ther pre-fight hype may suggest. I could see a lot of jostling for position against the cage or it could be similar to Lytle vs Davis with a lot of heavy shots but neither getting TKO'd or KO'd. If it goes to the ground they both have high levels of BJJ and which should cancel eachother out. Obviously a flash KO could happen (more inclined to think that it would be Serra KOing Lytle if anything) which is why im not putting too much on the prop, however Lytle has only ever been TKO'd once in his career and that was against Thiago Alves, whilst Serra has only been TKO/KO'd once as well which was the crazy random spinning backfist from Shonie Carter a while ago. May add another unit closer to the fight if odds are still at EVENS.



Straddle: 2.1 units on Stephens at +125, & 1 unit on Guillard by decision at +200 to win;

This is a fight I'm really looking forward to and am pulling for a Lil' Heathen victory. The question I asked myself was although I like Stephens to win, am I confident enough to just place a single bet on him at +125? The answer is no so have decided to straddle it with Guillard by decision! I was originally thinking of doing a Stephens by TKO/KO at +250 and Guillard by dec prop but I cant rule out Stephens possibly winning by decision or even sub if he can knock Guillard down then follow up with a rear-naked or guillotine (as me and Lasker talked about on his thread)...also Guillard has never lost by TKO/KO in his career. Paddypower have Stephens by sub at +750 which I also considered. If Stephens does win I will end up with just over 4 units (with the 1 unit on Guillard by dec taken away = 3 units overall return and 1.6 units profit). If Guillard wins by decision I will end up gettin back my stake of 2.1 units on Stephens winning. So I only lose money (3.1 units) if Guillard wins by TKO/KO or Sub which I don't foresee happening although of course isn't out of the question. Firstly, a Guillard submission is unlikely because a) this should predominantly be a stand-up war; b) Guillard has not submitted a fighter since 2003 (whilst the majority of his losses have been from submission); c) Stephens has equal if not better BJJ IMO. With regards to a possible TKO/KO, Stephens is one of the toughest dudes in the UFC and is massively hyped up for this fight (see his blogs on youtube), plus has never been TKO'd or KO'd in his career. Perhaps Saturday night will be the first time were one of them gets KO'd, there is a good chance that this will happen, I just dont think it will be Guillard KO'ing Stephens. Add to this the fact that he is training with Jackson MMA so is likely to have a set game plan which may involve a lot of hugging and looking for the decision...I can only foresee a Guillard decision win if he does manage win at all.


Those are my only two plays for now plus a couple of ongoing parlays that involve Mir, Bader, and Doerksen. Still contemplating whether to add a unit or two on Doerksen at +250 and Mitrione (at -162 at moment on bet365 and -175 on paddypower so resisting currently), but will probably wait until the weigh-ins. Was also intending to make a big play on Sherk/Dunham going to decision however the odds were 8/11 which I didn't see being worthwhile, and has now gone up to 8/13 so definitely not making a play even though I'm 80% sure that it will go to decision...I have a general rule that I will only do prop plays if the odds are EVENS or better!

[lasker]

I like the Serra/Lytle decision play, but I'm less keen on the straddle as I think Guillard could definitely win by TKO/KO (even though I'm backing Stephens, as you know). Guillard has serious knockout power for a lightweight fighter, and he should have a speed advantage as well. It's true that Stephens has never been TKO/KO'd, but I don't know how many guys he fought with the knockout power that Guillard has. Regardless, good luck!

[Vaughany]

Additional UFC 119 Plays:

Couldn't resist a play on Mir!...

1 unit on Mir by submission at +110 to win 1.1 units (plus stake);


1 unit on TJ Grant at -175 to win 0.57 units (plus stake).

[Vaughany]

Against my better judgement I've added some further plays for 119:

Parlay: 0.25 units on TJ Grant, Mitrione and Guillard to win 0.78 units (plus stake);

0.25 units on Guillard/Stephens being Fight of the Night at +350 to win 0.875 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Doerkson getting Submission of the Night at +2000 to win 2 units (plus stake).

[Shagdogy]

What do you like about the TJ Grant matchup? I don't know too much about him, but I know I'm not impressed with Paulhino. Wish 5 dimes offered the award of the night props. I like the Guillard/stephens pick, though I could also see that going to Bader/lil Nog.

I also must say I really like your Stephens/Guillard straddle, but I'm terrified of the Melvin TKO victory. I know Stephens has never been TKO'd but he's never fought anyone even close to as explosive as Melvin on the feet. Perhaps the two toughest guys he's faced on the feet would be Fisher and Stout and neither of those guys puts anyone to sleep. I highly doubt Melvin will sub him, but the possibility of a TKO lingers in my mind. Haven't decided yet. I like the play, but I'm scared of the possibility. Can't bet scared though, I know that.

[lasker]

0.25 units on Guillard/Stephens being Fight of the Night at +350 to win 0.875 units (plus stake);

[Vaughany]

What do you like about the TJ Grant matchup? I don't know too much about him, but I know I'm not impressed with Paulhino. Wish 5 dimes offered the award of the night props. I like the Guillard/stephens pick, though I could also see that going to Bader/lil Nog.

I also must say I really like your Stephens/Guillard straddle, but I'm terrified of the Melvin TKO victory. I know Stephens has never been TKO'd but he's never fought anyone even close to as explosive as Melvin on the feet. Perhaps the two toughest guys he's faced on the feet would be Fisher and Stout and neither of those guys puts anyone to sleep. I highly doubt Melvin will sub him, but the possibility of a TKO lingers in my mind. Haven't decided yet. I like the play, but I'm scared of the possibility. Can't bet scared though, I know that.

I thought 5 dimes did offer those type of props...thought they offered more than any other site? Or is it sportsbook or something else? Anyway, I think TJ Grant has the advantage in every area of this fight, he showed that he can get up off his back if he is taken down against Hendricks (he wasn't totally dominated, and won the first round IMO). Also showed good stand-up in tht fight and obviously got KO of the Night against Kevin Burns before that. If I could get Grant at -150 which he was at on Bodog I believe I'd of put at least 3 units on him. But at -175 Im loathe to make a big play so have just put a unit on him and added him to the parlay with Mitrione and Guillard.

Im not ruling out the possibility of Guillard winning by TKO/KO but I dont see it happening. Firstly, now that he is with Jackson MMA I think he may be more conservative and not as aggressive as usual with a set-game plan in mind. Secondly, Stephens has said that he's going to look to push the pace and attack Guillard...if this does happen and Guillard ends up backing up, Im not sure that Guillard is an amazingly powerful counter puncher. Thirdly, Stephens is just a tough dude and from listening to interviews and from his video blogs he is massively hyped up for this fight and is talking a big game...how he is going to break Guillard down and destroy him mentally. Nonetheless, after going back and forth, I decided to add Guillard to a parlay with Mitrione and Grant as a semi-backup in case he does end up TKO/KOing Stephens. With Mitrione even though Im pretty confident he'll get the win, I don't see value in a single bet on him at paddypower's -175 but feel he's worth adding to a parlay.

Bader/Lil Nog could well end up being fight of the Night if Bader decides to stand with Nog and trade, and cant rule out Lytle/Serra being FOTN if they do throw-down, plus Lytle is the hometown hero and Serra is a company favourite so wouldnt be surprised if they got FOTN even if other fights wer as good or slightly better.

[Vaughany]

Also added:

0.5 units on Dunham by decision at +137.5 to win 0.688 units (plus stake);

If Sherk hadn't been off for so long I probably wouldn't make this play, however ring-rust is a real thing and even with a cardio-beast like Sherk I think the 16 month lay-off will still have an impact. Add the fact that Dunham has the reach advantage against Sherk's T-Rex arms, has solid wrestling and a black belt BJJ I just dont see Sherk winning this fight, thought may well take Dunham to a split decision.

0.5 units on Bader by decision at +175 to win 0.875 units (plus stake).

I expect a Bader TKO/KO or decision win in this fight. Im hoping however that Nog still has the chin that Big Nog used to have so will be able take some shots and survive. Also hoping that Bader takes Nog down and scores point through take-downs and control. If he does take Nog down I think he will be conservative and dare I say it utilise a 'lay n pray' approach in order to show control but minimise the risk of a submission (smother tactics).

[lasker]

You found Dunham by decision at +137.5, or did you mean -137.5? At 5dimes it was -137 yesterday, and today it's -114. Bader by decision is just at +122 on 5dimes. What book are you using, paddypower?

[Vaughany]

You found Dunham by decision at +137.5, or did you mean -137.5? At 5dimes it was -137 yesterday, and today it's -114. Bader by decision is just at +122 on 5dimes. What book are you using, paddypower?

Yee plus odds on paddypower, Dunham by dec is still 11/8 and Bader by dec is 7/4....good to know that they're better than 5dimes are offering because I thought paddypower had tightened up on ther props for this event and was worried that I wasnt gettin value!

[BIGDAY]

Love Bader by dec +175!

[Vaughany]

And another play:

Straddle: 1 unit on CB Dolloway by decision at +175, & 0.225 units on Doerkson by sub at +450;

Parlay (2 from 3 folds): 0.3 units on Kong Watson, Miyata, & Grove to win 1.27 units (plus stake);

Parlay (2 from 3 folds): 0.3 units on Aurelio, Mayhem Miller, & McCorkle to win 1.68 units (plus stake);

0.1 units on Lytle/Serra being Fight of the Night at +400 to win 0.4 units (plus stake).

[Fiasco01]

So far the only plays I've locked in are

1u on Serra at +115
1u on Sherk by Dec +378
2.2 u on Mir at -220

I think I might put a small wager on Stephens/Melvin for FOTN

[Vaughany]

So far the only plays I've locked in are

1u on Serra at +115
1u on Sherk by Dec +378
2.2 u on Mir at -220

I think I might put a small wager on Stephens/Melvin for FOTN

Im pulling for Serra as well but not confident enough to make a single play on him when Lytle is in his home town with the hunger to make up for their first fight. Hope I dont regret not having Sherk in a play as well.

One more play:

0.075 units on Doerkson by TKO/KO at +1600 to win 1.2 units (plus stake).

[Eccocide]

GL tomorrow man. We are on a couple of the same plays. Wish I could get Serra/Lytle to a decision at that price! -175 on 5 dimes lol. And i think you mean +1600 on the Doerksen TKO prop....unless Paddypower is smoking some crazy shit! lol.

[Vaughany]

GL tomorrow man. We are on a couple of the same plays. Wish I could get Serra/Lytle to a decision at that price! -175 on 5 dimes lol. And i think you mean +1600 on the Doerksen TKO prop....unless Paddypower is smoking some crazy shit! lol.

haha so I did...got a bit carried away with the zeros! Yee looks like we're both relying on decisions tomorrow and Doerkson submission. Think you're on for a winner with the Mitrione/Beltran starts round 3, I was tempted to bet on it going to decision but paddypower released the props for that fight after Id blown my budget! Also pretty sure Grant will pull of the win and I think your Mir/Cro-Cop bet is looking good as I'm predicting it will end in round 2 (hopefully a Mir submission!). Wish paddypower would offer those type of bets. GL bro

[spargament]

Doerkson has no shot in this match imho it was booked strictly to boost CB's profile (granted if he manages to bungle this up his days in the UFC are near numbered) so I love Dolloway for parlays....Grant is gonna dominate...those are the two strongest plays besides Mir and Dunham on the card..

[Vaughany]

Doerkson has no shot in this match imho it was booked strictly to boost CB's profile (granted if he manages to bungle this up his days in the UFC are near numbered) so I love Dolloway for parlays....Grant is gonna dominate...those are the two strongest plays besides Mir and Dunham on the card..

I'm not sure it was booked to boost CB's profile...he not exactly a company favourite who can be a marketable star! Im sure many said similar things before the Lawlor fight. Nontheless, I'm expecting a Dolloway Unaminous decision win, just hoping Doerkson can pull off a sub.

[Poppa Catfish]

Bader by decision is now +200, how can I resist?