[thesox0311]

DId you see all 5 undercard fights on facebook now! Good stuff by Dana

[ufcmma36]

U put "Couture get's KO'd. definitely" but then say Couture inside the distance?

Sorry I wasnt all that clear I meant if he stands with him he definitely will get KO'd, him knowing that Im sure its not his gameplan to just stand in front of him and bang. I seem Randy smothering him up against the cage, maybe a 3rd rd. TKO?

[omalley21]

Randys not finishing anybody. Are you serious? Wtf. Machida inside the distance is the play.

[Vaughany]

Sorry I wasnt all that clear I meant if he stands with him he definitely will get KO'd, him knowing that Im sure its not his gameplan to just stand in front of him and bang. I seem Randy smothering him up against the cage, maybe a 3rd rd. TKO?

Randys not finishing anybody. Are you serious? Wtf. Machida inside the distance is the play.

It's not impossible but I highly doubt Randy finishes Machida. Can't knock anybody for playin Couture by decision tho, I think it's second most likely outcome after Machida by TKO/KO.

[omalley21]

Id say 3rd most likely after Machida by decision. Lets be serious, throw the name out the window, he's pushing 50. He's human. He's fighting a top guy. He should've lost to Vera a few years ago. He's not beating Machida. Ufc is using him to build Machida back up. The fact that he's hanging up the gloves shows the motivation for him is gone also.

[sideloaded]

Randys not finishing anybody. Are you serious? Wtf. Machida inside the distance is the play.

Randy has chokes that could finish anybody. ANYBODY.

[kiefynugs]

yeah Randy isn't getting this one to the ground. hedge couture by decision "wall n stall" with machida by a quick and nasty tko/ko

[omalley21]

Randy has chokes that could finish anybody. ANYBODY.

I actually do think sub defense is one of Machidas weaknesses. Tito almost triangled him.


Hey V, what do you think of Demetrious Johnson by decision over Torres ufc 130.

[ufcmma36]

either way hope its a great fight and not some b.s early stoppage

[sideloaded]

Couture is really looking in phenomenal shape for this one. Better than the last few fights at least.

[ufcmma36]

especially the whole retirement thing, its either go out a legend with some vintage randy gnp. Or go out a warrior with alot of heart (im sure Goldie will say that at least ten times). Call me crazy but I really think a 3rd rd tko is likely.

[sideloaded]

especially the whole retirement thing, its either go out a legend with some vintage randy gnp. Or go out a warrior with alot of heart (im sure Goldie will say that at least ten times). Call me crazy but I really think a 3rd rd tko is likely.

I like it and you'll probably get some good odds on it too.

[rocky mattioli]

i`m seeing ellenberger -170 vs sean pierson....

i`ve only seen him the one time in his ufc debut vs matt riddle...and he looked o.k...

but ellenberger looks on the come...he`s strong and seems to have excellent cardio...i would be surprised,in spite of the short notice,if he`s not in excellent shape....

pierson has home court....yet i still want to put something on ellenberger at -170...

opinions?.....talk me down off the ledge if you think i`m not getting it...

sucker bet?

even if i`m on the wrong side,i anm expecting this to move toward better known ellenberger....

at the very least,it may turn into a decent hedge(straddle as the european guys like to say)...

v...you see any possibilities here?

thanks

[urge2kill]

Ellenberger took the fight on 2 weeks notice.

[rocky mattioli]

Ellenberger took the fight on 2 weeks notice.

he seems like the type of guy that stays in serious shape.....but that`s a real consideration...

[Vaughany]

i`m seeing ellenberger -170 vs sean pierson....

i`ve only seen him the one time in his ufc debut vs matt riddle...and he looked o.k...

but ellenberger looks on the come...he`s strong and seems to have excellent cardio...i would be surprised,in spite of the short notice,if he`s not in excellent shape....

pierson has home court....yet i still want to put something on ellenberger at -170...

opinions?.....talk me down off the ledge if you think i`m not getting it...

sucker bet?

even if i`m on the wrong side,i anm expecting this to move toward better known ellenberger....

at the very least,it may turn into a decent hedge(straddle as the european guys like to say)...

v...you see any possibilities here?

thanks

Only got access on my blackberry at moment..
I agree don't think the line will get any better so I'd take it sooner rather than later. I'm stayin away from it because of the short notice and because I think pierson is the best wrestler ellenberger has faced in the ufc

[thesox0311]

I normally would hate a guy on short notice, but Ellenberger is always in shape and a fitness freak. I think he wins this easily.

[corcoran65]

Who do you like for ufc 129. i like

yevs Jabouin
Ivan Menjivar
Matyushenko

[bjpenn85]

Ive looked at mtyshenko, and i have read predictiors that expekt him to win. They seem to focus on two things:
- They mean matyshenko is the more experienced fighter. (hate that argument)
- That he has slightly better wrestling.

From what i can tell matyshenko has not ever finished a fighter at the highest level (if someone try to make a case for jamal patterson i will be disappointed ), Nogueira in 2002 doesnt count, to long ago baby.

So, how can he win? damage delivered from the janitor, always happens after taken fighters down, and delivering punches. He is actually quite good doing this, against bad fighters, and i see this as his only way to win if he doesnt connect on his feet , something he never does when fighting people at the highest level. I dont think he can put on that type of onslaught on brilz if the action is taken to the ground. Ill give the advantage on the ground however to brilz, after looking at the nogueira fight, maybe i am wrong here, but brilz seems to me to be more dynamic, better in scrambles.

On the feet matyushenko, is not that active when it comes to throw punches. In the nogueira fight it took him like 3-4 minutes to even throw a punch, and he is not very good at it, from my perspective. Matyshenko has to mix punches with takedowns to win, which is what brilz does. But brilz in my opinion can also win, by just brawl for three rounds.

Matyshenko also lost against jamal patterson on the feet, and nogueira, and so on, and if this turn out as a standup fight, i think matyshenko will loose. Brilz at least actually hurt nogueira sometimes, and have decent powes, while matyshenko got KOed. I think brilz has a better ground game and is better standing, never gets finished, and hasnt lost a fight in 10 years (looking past horrible judges),

What i do grasp on in this post may be subtleties that may all be wrong. It may be more even than i like to believe, but what are youre thoughts?

[jin2daj]

i like ellenberger too. he reminds me of fitch with more power and less scrappy.

[Ladle]

Matyshenko also lost against jamal patterson on the feet, and nogueira, and so on, and if this turn out as a standup fight, i think matyshenko will loose. Brilz at least actually hurt nogueira sometimes, and have decent powes, while matyshenko got KOed. I think brilz has a better ground game and is better standing, never gets finished, and hasnt lost a fight in 10 years (looking past horrible judges),

Vlad's technique is okay but his toolbox isn't particularly deep; he has a good, stiff jab but not much else worthy of noting. I find it strange that he's professed wanting to keep the fight standing against Brilz, considering his route to victory in all of his other fights consisted of taking a guy down, controlling them and knuckle-dusting them a bit. Maybe he knows he's outmatched on the floor this time around.

[bjpenn85]

when he fought nogueira he could have exploited his wrestling defencies, but choose to get knocked out, after losing 1th round and 2th round, clearly. He just refused to take the fight to the ground, even though he lost. He might have been to overconfident, because he tkoed nogueira, but, the guy never wins without taken the fight to the ground as you said.

[koscheckbaby]

Vlad was injured badly prior to that Affliction fight and couldn't shoot. And he beat Eliot Marshall recently standing, the same Marshall who beat Brilz standing.

I'm not seeing the Brilz love. Guy isn't as good as that Nog fight would indicate. He doesn't even train full-time. He had all he could handle from guys like Marshall, Schafer, and Boetsch. Vlad beat two of those guys and had it much easier than Brilz.

[jin2daj]

interesting that so many people like matyushenko over the younger brilz. they seem like the same guy to me, except that brilz is younger.

[Ladle]

Vlad was injured badly prior to that Affliction fight and couldn't shoot. And he beat Eliot Marshall recently standing, the same Marshall who beat Brilz standing.

Vlad won that fight against Marshall predominantly with his wrestling. I had the first round dead even, but gave Matyushenko the second and third because of the takedowns he was able to secure.

I also thought Brilz won his fight against Marshall. While he struggled to get takedowns, he still landed the harder shots on the feet.

Vlad was injured badly prior to that Affliction fight and couldn't shoot.

Why would anyone take a fight if they were so badly injured that they couldn't even shoot? Sounds like hyperbole to me.

[koscheckbaby]

All I know is someone that knew Vlad personally said he was really hurt going into that fight and was gonna try and win standing. Explains his lack of wrestling pretty much.

Brilz got rocked standing by friggin Eric Schafer. Can't understand why people think so highly of him just because he fought an injured Nog who wasn't preparing for a wrestler.

The best bet for this fight is to go to decision. Neither guy fights to finish really.

[Ladle]

Brilz got rocked standing by friggin Eric Schafer. Can't understand why people think so highly of him just because he fought an injured Nog who wasn't preparing for a wrestler.

Brilz deserves to be 5-0 in the UFC and displayed some technically brilliant stuff against Rogerio on the ground. He also rocked Rogerio on the feet.

All I know is someone that knew Vlad personally said he was really hurt going into that fight and was gonna try and win standing. Explains his lack of wrestling pretty much.

I'd say that's a reflection of his inability to form a decent game plan.

The best bet for this fight is to go to decision. Neither guy fights to finish really.

Agreed, but the odds will probably reflect that.

[koscheckbaby]

It would just seem weird to me if Vlad gets outwrestled/grappled by Brilz. Vlad has years more MMA and international wrestling experience. Plus, he trains full-time. Brilz has a full-time job and has no interest in training full-time. He also is coming off an injury and bit of a layoff, so don't overlook ringrust. He's not really young either, so Vlad being old doesn't really mean much to me. Vlad should put Brilz where he's unused to being, his back. He can likely outstrike him too, but I think Vlad's best bet to not get screwed out of a decision is the takedown.

[Ladle]

It would just seem weird to me if Vlad gets outwrestled/grappled by Brilz. Vlad has years more MMA and international wrestling experience. Plus, he trains full-time. Brilz has a full-time job and has no interest in training full-time. He also is coming off an injury and bit of a layoff, so don't overlook ringrust. He's not really young either, so Vlad being old doesn't really mean much to me. Vlad should put Brilz where he's unused to being, his back. He can likely outstrike him too, but I think Vlad's best bet to not get screwed out of a decision is the takedown.

Vlad has stated that he intends to keep the fight standing against Brilz.

Even if that turns out not to be the case, don't forget that Brilz is decent off of his back; as we saw in the Rogerio fight, he has good hips and is difficult to hold down. If Vlad does take him down, I don't think he keeps him there for long.

[koscheckbaby]

Vlad probably would just help seal the round in the judge's eyes with the takedowns at minimum. I mean, he IS the better wrestler. Vlad was a very respected international wrestler at one point. Brilz has no such credentials and doesn't exactly have great takedowns(see Marshall fight) And both guys are pretty slow-paced strikers, who the judges have trouble scoring for. Might as well help seal the deal with a meaningless takedown at worst.

Where's Vaughany and his opinion on this fight?

[Ladle]

Might as well help seal the deal with a meaningless takedown at worst.

I'm not discrediting that as a viable strategy. It's a matter of whether or not he can take Brilz down in the first instance. Brilz hasn't really had his defensive wrestling tested, so we don't know if Matyushenko can take him down at all, let alone take him down at the end of each round.

I mean, he IS the better wrestler. Vlad was a very respected international wrestler at one point.

How can you be so sure? Matyushenko is well regarded abroad, but Brilz is NCAA Division 2 (keep in mind that a Division 2 wrestler was regarded as the best wrestler in the world a while back). I don't think we can decisively say that one is better at wrestling than the other.

[Vaughany]

Currently travelling a lot and not got access to laptop but will respond properly and post my plays before Sat!

[Vaughany]

Some plays I've added recently for 129:


2.667 units on Henderson by TKO/KO or Decision at +187.5 to win 5 units; Hedged with:-

2.5 units on Bocek at +110 to win 2.75 units;


5.667 units on Bocek/Henderson to go the distance at Evens to win 5.667 units;


0.288 units on Macdonald by decision at +500 to win 1.44 units.

[asiangambler]

best of luck buddy

[aznufcguy]

Pick: Bocek to win straight up
Why: People say Henderson is not submittable, but yet he always get himself caught in submission attempts. That's dangerous against a guy like Bocek, who is probably a top 5 UFC BBJ Lightweight guy in terms of functional BBJ. Henderson' s striking is a little better than Boceks, but Bocek has a 4 inch reach advantage which means Henderson needs to come in to strike, and this allows Bocek to get takedowns easier. Given near Even odds, Bocek.

Pick: Bocek and Henderson not a decision
Why: At+120, decent bet. Both guys go for a lot of submission attempts, and both guys are not known to do boring Couture Clinching on the fence or Fitch actionless on top action. I see a finish over a decision 50% of the time between these two, so +120 is good odds.

Pick: Ellenberger
Why: Pierson, despite having a wrestling background, did not use his wrestling a lot against Riddle. In fact, he outstruck Riddle. Ellenberger is a take down machine and is relentless w/ G+P. Plus Riddle did quite well in the 2nd half of the fight as he probably was caught off guard against a Pierson that people did not scount since that was his 1st time in the UFC. Pierson also gassed, whereas Ellenberger is in great shape despite taking this on 2 weeks notice. Odds aren't great at -200, but I actually think this is an easy fight for Ellenberger.

Pick: Patrick
Why: Roberts has some Gracie hype on him, but his striking is mediocre. I would say both guys' jiu-jitsu cancel out, and Patrick actually took down Wilks with ease and completed outgrappled him. Patrick has better striking, and has better gas tank. Canada crowd will help. At -150, not bad odds.

Picks: Garza and Valencia
Why: I would say a good rule of thumb is wrestler/grapplers beat pure strikers 75% of the time. Garza ia +140 and Valencia is +160. I just need one of thse two srestler/grappling guys to win, to come out ahead.