I was disappointed in his breakdown. I need him to include some medical terms
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10-12-12 12:18 PM #8191
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10-12-12 09:16 PM #8192
I don't think everyone thinks he will kill him, but he should win this fight and in my opinion should be over -300. Nog could literally pull guard and sub Herman whenever he wants. Herman is one of the worst UFC fighters I have ever seen on the ground. That Struve fight was a joke the way he flopped around when he was mounted. You could tell he had no idea how to even attempt to get out. The guy gasses after the first round, has beat up cans in regional and weaker promotions, throws heavy punches but with poor technique. Herman has a puncher's chance in the first 1:30 in this fight and that is about it.
Originally Posted by NunyaBidness
I have a feeling this fight was Dana killing two birds with one stone. Give Big Nog a favorable fight with a high probability of winning in his home country and send Herman packing. Herman comes across as a stoner who doesn't give a fukk. Guy shows up to weigh ins and what not looking ridiculous and has only put on one good showing in 3 UFC fights. Herman has stated in numerous interviews that he's most looking forward to staying the week after the fight and enjoying Brazil. The guy has shown zero intensity and has joked about everything. He also took this fight on 4 weeks notice. While he didn't have to cut weight, he cannot possibly be in peak fighting shape.
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10-13-12 05:12 AM #8193
silva vs fitch - your thoughts?
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10-13-12 06:04 AM #8194
Nog should definitely win this fight, but people are sleeping on Herman. He's definitely better than Schaub (that's not saying a lot). There's a very real chance that he wins. Originally Posted by El Nino
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10-13-12 09:04 AM #8195
what are we thinking V?
UFC 153 - Fight of the Night
Winnerall 12 fights must occur for action Sat 10/13 10001 Bonner/Silva award winner +300 7:00PM 10002 Any other bout is Fight of the Night -420 all 12 fights must occur for action Sat 10/13 10003 Herman/Nogueira award winner +350 7:00PM 10004 Any other bout is Fight of the Night -530 all 12 fights must occur for action Sat 10/13 10005 Maldonado/Teixeira award winner +400 7:00PM 10006 Any other bout is Fight of the Night -600 all 12 fights must occur for action Sat 10/13 10007 Silva/Fitch award winner +600 7:00PM 10008 Any other bout is Fight of the Night -1200 all 12 fights must occur for action Sat 10/13 10009 Prado/Davis award winner +900 7:00PM 10010 Any other bout is Fight of the Night -1850 all 12 fights must occur for action Sat 10/13 10011 Story/Maia award winner +800 7:00PM 10012 Any other bout is Fight of the Night -1700 all 12 fights must occur for action Sat 10/13 10013 Sicilia/Bezerra award winner +2500 7:00PM 10014 Any other bout is Fight of the Night -7500 all 12 fights must occur for action Sat 10/13 10015 Trinaldo/Tibau award winner +1800 7:00PM 10016 Any other bout is Fight of the Night -5400 all 12 fights must occur for action Sat 10/13 10017 Gambino/Brandao award winner +1000 7:00PM 10018 Any other bout is Fight of the Night -2000 all 12 fights must occur for action Sat 10/13 10019 Forte/Moraes award winner +2000 7:00PM 10020 Any other bout is Fight of the Night -6000 all 12 fights must occur for action Sat 10/13 10021 Camozzi/Cane award winner +1800 7:00PM 10022 Any other bout is Fight of the Night -5400 all 12 fights must occur for action Sat 10/13 10023 Marcello/Madadi award winner +1700 7:00PM 10024 Any other bout is Fight of the Night -5100
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10-13-12 09:32 AM #8196
Glover and cane fights Originally Posted by PunisherIND
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10-13-12 09:36 AM #8197
Dana is gonna be desperate to give his boy Bonnar a bonus so good chance that gets FOTN if half entertaining! Dave Herman can make fights entertaining as he is pretty wild and has zero defense so gets hit a lot, and Maldonado is always in entertaining fights so will probably be one of those 3 (so odds are spot on IMO) Originally Posted by PunisherIND
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10-13-12 09:37 AM #8198
And yeah Cane and Camozzi is a candidate but being on facebook it's obviously at a big disadvantage
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10-13-12 09:39 AM #8199
I agree that silva Bonnar wil win as long as Bonnar doesn't lnp and it lasts past half of round 1
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10-13-12 10:08 AM #8200
Silva/Fitch only +600?!?!? AWWWW INNNNNN!
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10-13-12 10:16 AM #8201
thiis card is tough to call. nothing really stands out, but the value seems to be on the undercard. might take a stab at gambino/brandao +1000
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10-13-12 10:22 AM #8202
ah yeah tht should be a good one Originally Posted by PunisherIND
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10-13-12 10:23 AM #8203
I agree on the Silva/Bonnar thing. Dana tends to favor guys he likes with these Bonuses. Or guys who "deserve" it.
Outside of that happening I like Tex and Brandao fights. Both could be pretty back and forth.
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10-13-12 11:47 AM #8204
You think camozxi hits 150
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10-13-12 11:53 AM #8205
Just a smallish play on Camozzi at +140 tonight.
Also got small on Fitch by Decision and have Big Nog at -220 but will probably hedge these in some way.
My ramblings on Banha/Camozzi in no sort of proper order/format...
Cane’s first fight in a year and coming off surgery and making first cut to 185lbs. I can’t imagine Cane walked around more than 210, 215 perhaps max when out of shape so his cut to 205 was probably easy. Doesn’t mean that the cut to 185 will be comfortable though (although he clearly looked in great condition at the weigh-in and he has said that he feels great at this weight so far). We all know that Cane has issues with getting hit, his striking offence is a lot better than his defence (like many fighters in MMA). I don’t necessarily believe he has a glass chin like some may argue, I think it’s more of a combination of getting hit a lot and not having a great chin as such. I believe some of it may be psychological as well, he tends to panic and wilt when under pressure. In the Nedkov fight he got hit and ran away and almost tried to jump out of the cage before Nedkov landed a barrage of follow up punches that dropped him and seemed to re-wake him up! We’ve seen that Cane is equally susceptible to heavy-handed brawlers (like Nedkov) and also more technical strikers like Diabate and to certain extent Lil Nog. Camozzi has the combination IMO of being technical and a brawler (kind of like a Brad Pickett style who is a technical brawler and likes to turn it in to a dog-fight).
What we know about Camozzi is that in terms of toughness and grit he is complete opposite to Cane. I may be wrong but I don’t think Camozzi has ever been dropped from a strike? Dude got his jaw broke against O’Donnell to get in to TUF house and still fought on and won third round. His ability to take punishment and keep on pushing forward is on a whole different level and for me these may outweigh the technical advantages that Banha certainly has.
If Camozzi can keep pushing forward and put Banha on back foot he should have great success in this fight. Banha’s a lot more dangerous when moving forward, and seems a bit lost when backing up…clearly not as comfortable counter-striking. Aside from his durability, Camozzi should have a considerable cardio advantage and be the one pushing the pace and landing more combinations in latter part of the fight. We all saw how he turned it on against Catone late on in the fight. He clearly needs to take the fight to Cane as it won’t be easy to win a decision in Brazil when the crowd are constantly cheering every punch and kick that Banha throws.
The perceived “home-advantage” may not be as a big a factor as many may think IMO. Banha after all was the only Brazilian to lose against a non-Brazilian on the 134 card after Nedkov took him out. Furthermore, Camozzi has experience in being the bad guy in opposition’s back yard. Aside from the last fight against Catone where he fought in New Jersey, he also fought Jacoby in Chicago (Jacoby an Illinois native), Villasenor in New Mexico, and Noke in Australia, so although these places won’t be as fiery as Brazil, he still has more experience than most fighters in these kind of situations. It seems the UFC know that they can count on Chris to not bottle it in his opponent’s back yard and will always bring the fight.
I would guess that there are two ways Camozzi can go with regards to strategy:-
a) Push forward from the start and not give Banha any time to get himself in to the fight or give Banha a chance to push forward
or:
b) Circle a lot and clinch against cage and try and wear Banha out with view of exploiting lay-off and weight cut by pouring it on in the third round (which Camozzi tends to do as shown in Jacoby and Catone fights)
I believe the former strategy is more likely and would also be the best option based on what we’ve seen from Banha in past. Camozzi spoke about wanting to get off to a fast start in an interview I read earlier in the week as he tends to not wake up until later part of fights. This suggests to me that he does indeed intend to pressuring Banha from the start.
At +140 I think Camozzi is worth a small play, even though Cane has all the ability to make light-work of a guy like Camozzi who doesn't particularly excel at anything but is just tough and hard-working, and despite the fact that I do find it hard imagining Banha losing a second fight in front of his home crowd after the Nedkov disaster!
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10-13-12 12:09 PM #8206
That write up is basically my thoughts also.. I like to see this thing get to round three and watch Cane crumble. I think his only chance is to win early and that is it. When i see a fighter do what Cane did his last couple of fights it usually means his career is over. They are just to afraid to get hit anymore. Like i said Cane can start off great and if Camozzi can withstand that first two minutes i think he has this. I wish i saw some film of Camozzi against another lefty and see how he dodges those punches. Originally Posted by Vaughany
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10-13-12 12:13 PM #8207
I was all over Nog in that Schaub fight as i thought Schaub chin was awful and he might be the most overrated heavyweight out there. That being said i just can't go with Nog again. Just never seen him look that terrible at a weigh-in. Something is up with him. he still should beat this can Herman but not with my money behind him Originally Posted by NunyaBidness
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10-13-12 07:20 PM #8208
My boy Camozzi gets the win...future champ! Originally Posted by Vaughany
Hedged my Fitch by Decision at +174 play with Erick Silva at -137, and also got a risk-free play on Fitch to win £50 just to make things more interesting. Probably going to leave the Nog play as it is as only £70 or something at -215. Added a tiny play on Nog SOTN and Glover SOTN as well.
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10-14-12 06:36 AM #8209
Originally Posted by Vaughany
Solid night, should of had more faith in Fitch and not hedged it but still made a bit from it. Would of been a moderate play had it not been in Brazil, and if I'd of stayed up to watch main card would of certainly played Fitch live-in-play at end of round 2...Erick Silva was done at that point. Nog SOTN was the icing on the cake Originally Posted by Vaughany
My boy Camozzi gets the win...future champ!
Hedged my Fitch by Decision at +174 play with Erick Silva at -137, and also got a risk-free play on Fitch to win £50 just to make things more interesting. Probably going to leave the Nog play as it is as only £70 or something at -215. Added a tiny play on Nog SOTN and Glover SOTN as well.
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10-14-12 07:37 AM #8210
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10-14-12 10:46 AM #8211
can't believe how many people bought into the "bonnar has never been finished" nonsense, pushing silva by tko to -160. absolute gift.
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10-14-12 11:23 AM #8212
had under 1.5 rounds at +250
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10-14-12 12:55 PM #8213
Before the fight Silva inside distance was -180 on BETDSI. Now THAT was a gift. I was worried he would finish him by submission. Originally Posted by v1y
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10-14-12 07:54 PM #8214
Also I find it interesting how wrong the late action was for almost every fight on this card. 150 was the total opposite with Perez/Kuiper/Holloway getting all the late action.
Herman got hammered after the weigh ins (which I kind of understand based on how nog looked, although it seems hilarious in retrospect)
Erick Silva got hammered to -200
Trinaldo/Tibau went down to evens.
Jason closed about -220
Silva/Bonnar itd and related Silva itd props got massively cheaper.
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10-14-12 08:23 PM #8215
add rick story to the list! Originally Posted by v1y
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10-15-12 02:46 AM #8216
yeah your right, shows sometimes the steam isnt always right, or isnt always +EV as my friend Wannabet would say Originally Posted by v1y
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10-16-12 10:05 AM #8217
But Jason also had a pretty tough scrap with Sam Sicilia. Sicilia is no pushover, but the only fighter he's ever defeated with a Wikipedia entry is Cristiano Marcello.
-Luke Thomas
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10-16-12 02:29 PM #8218
Chael vs jones next in April
bubzy gets a house in may
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10-16-12 02:34 PM #8219
haha what a joke...only Sonnen could lose a title fight and get another shot at a different title
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10-16-12 02:39 PM #8220
At a higher weight class. Originally Posted by Vaughany
haha what a joke...only Sonnen could lose a title fight and get another shot at a different title
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10-16-12 02:47 PM #8221
shale chonan
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10-16-12 02:53 PM #8222
I guess Dana must be desperate to boost the TUF ratings and feels Sonnen is the only man who can do it. Having the winner of Gustaf/Rua as a coach wouldnt work...would be dull as fuuck, and same with Machida/Henderson.
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10-18-12 06:26 AM #8223
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10-19-12 10:23 AM #8224
sorry V... maybe we should rename your thread "Vaughany's MMA Picks and Punisher's Props"?
Nelson/Carwin won't go 5 round distance -300
Palhares/Lombard won't go 3 round distance -175
Not Lauzon by 3 round decision -1072 (parlay material)
Lauzon wins inside distance +400 (tiny value play)
Weidman wins inside distance -155
Not Boetsch inside distance -660 (parlay material)
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10-19-12 10:29 AM #8225
Velasquez wins inside distance +153
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