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Bellator 222: MacDonald vs. Gracie (June 14, 2019)
DAZN 9:00 pm ET
Rory Macdonald vs Neiman Gracie (for welterweight title)
Lyoto Machida vs Chael Sonnen
Dillion Danis vs Max Humphrey
Ricky Bandejas vs Patrick Mix
Juan Archuleta vs Eduardo Dantas
Darrion Caldwell vs Kyoji Horiguchi (for bantamweight title)
Prelims
Adam Borics vs Aaron Pico
Heather Hardy vs Taylor Turner
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Machida + Danis parlay
You don't think Chael will wrestlefuck Machida?Originally Posted by bjpenn85
He looks so old and stiff in his movements, perhaps he may be able to steal rounds with grappling, but Machida isnt that easily taken down. I think Machida looks quite fresh. Age hasnt really taken its tole on Machida i think he will hurt Sonnen, and sonnens durability isnt really there, if you hurt him hes done.
Sonnen has always been a quitter but I wouldn’t recommend laying big chalk on Machida at this point in his career
Machida fought great wrestlers like Phil Davis.
This is not recommended play, Machida can easily have a bad performance, age can catch up, im willing to take the chance, its not a bet i love, but i think it will cash.
Caldwell should smother Horiguchi for the first 2 rounds, maybe 3. Even with Guchi's movement and a big round cage to work with, he has great control. Horiguchi does have a shot to win, so maybe look to play him after Round 2 as a big dog if live bet is available. At -125, I took a little Caldwell and may buy out live.
Rory appears to be done and his TDD and distance management against a 41 year old Fitch looked pretty bad. If he doesn't turn the ship around, I think Gracie has the control and cardio to win.
Color me pessimistic but the only way I see Chael beating Machida is if Chael takes Machida down 2 out of 3 rounds and lies on him for the majority of 10 minutes. Any other scenario is one that ends with Chael losing imo.
Chael is far more skilled as a talker and promo guy than he is as a fighter.
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I respect your guys' analysis and opinions but I'm gonna take a small parlay of Sonnen and Archuleta. Or maybe Rory instead of Archuleta because I'm rooting for him to win. Just hope he shows up.
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Gracie is a no brainer for me, hope to play at plus odds by fight day. Might just have to lock it in by Thursday's weigh-ins. Just basing off Rory's last performance against a washed up Fitch. Was not impressed at all. While Gracie seems very hungry for that belt. Don't think anyone in the division can beat Gracie in Bellator right now. I have Gracie submitting Rory within the 3rd round. The wrong fighter is favored here, Rory is only favored due to him being the champ. I personally capped Gracie at -175.
Kyoji Horiguchi is the other play. Horiguchi has more paths to victory as evident with his submission win already over Caldwell. He has KO power as well. The only disadvantage I see for Horiguchi is the wrestling/ground game. Still I like Horiguchi to keep it standing and he will win the stand up exchanges. This probably goes to a decision. Horiguchi at plus money is another steal, IMO.
- Let's not forget Rory's post-fight interview after his fight against Fitch...
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Yeah he might be mentally broken at this point
Did Rory pullout? Jon Fitch is saying he's on the card in my training room right now
Last edited by UncleChael; 06-12-19 at 12:11 AM.
https://twitter.com/jonfitchdotnet/s...76092452126722
If you have access to live betting for the fight, I would wait to hit Horiguchi after a round or two. If Caldwell controls Horiguchi for the first two rounds like he should, you might see Horiguchi at +300. Caldwell slows a bit, and with Horiguchi's movement and quickness, Caldwell will have probably spent a lot of energy to hang onto him in the first couple rounds. In later rounds, Guchi should be able to keep the distance even better. I wanted Guchi as a bigger dog, so for now I'm going to wait for lines to widen or for live lines.
I wonder if Bellator prelims will have odds released, anyone have it by chance? Looking to make some bets on prelim action. Curious to see the odds for Pico and Rena.
BM doesn't offer live odds, seems like I would have to deposit in 5D as that's the only other book I've used in the past with live MMA odds. I'll consider it, thanks for the head's up Turbozed.
Last time around, only BetDSI offered live lines on Bellator. So you'd have to sign up for that.
I thought about that then realized the line for Pico could easily be -1000 to -2000 and wouldn't be worth it.
Any thoughts on Juan Archuleta vs Eduardo Dantas?
Some live updaters (like sherdog) scored Archuleta's last fight 29-28 in Ricky Bandejas favor. I don't remember watching that fight and couldn't say who won, Archuleta might be a bit overvalued coming into it.
Eduardo Dantas might also have lost his motivation for fighting. He's not as professional or focused as he was earlier in his career. Those would seem to be the main intangibles
Pico is fighting an undefeated prospect with all 3-0 Bellator wins by finishes. I'd figured the odds would be much lower but definitely no more than a 3-1 favorite. I do agree Pico will likely be the favorite here though. My guess is Pico -250 range.
57/43 Machida fight. Lots of value on Sonnen in my opinion.
Also, leaning towards a Neiman Gracie submission win. I'll take dog, and under when the line comes out.
This is gonna be a one-sided pounding with Uncle Chael swinging the hammer... how have you guys learned nothing yet?
You believe Sonnen will hold Machida down for a 3rd decision win?
Anyone know if this Max Humphrey character is legitimately so bad that Danis should be this big of a favourite? Don't know anything about Humphrey but Danis looked very hittable in his debut fight.
Hes really really bad. Robotic movement, poor striking and ground game. Had a loosing record as an amateur. Just why would anyone with this limited skillset try to go in the ring Why do you want to be a prof fighter when you clearly doesnt have the genetics, or capability? Its very hard to understand. Hes god awful, but he still ha punchers chance obviously, but hes way worse than mike jackson whos 1-1 in the ufc, the guy who fought CM punk.
Idk odds are probably inflated, sometimes bettors need a safe parlay filler for instance in lack of other options, so i dont know if the odds are perfectly correct atm, but yeah, this guy is as bad as the odds indicate. With 6 month of training i would have smoke this dude. He shouldnt be in Bellator.
Thanks, brother. Was half thinking of a small bet on Humphrey on the off chance of an upset but he sounds genuinely dreadful. Will avoid.
BJJ guys are hard to TKO as well...they get dropped, they can just lay on their backs and collect themselves. If you choose to go to the ground with them, they will submit you. Danis is actually better both striking and on the ground, and if he fakks up, this idiot cant go to the ground with him. Danis is like a Charles Oliveira type of sub guy. He will setup an ancle lock within 3 sec. Just no fakking way betting on this idiot is justified from a logical view point, pre fight watching tape, knowing how these type of matchups work etc. Ill say this guy looses 10 out of 10 matches...but maybe he wins the 35 or 36th time they fight....Im tempted to say theres actually value at -1400. hahaThanks, brother. Was half thinking of a small bet on Humphrey on the off chance of an upset but he sounds genuinely dreadful. Will avoid.
Would actually like to see Danis win a few fights. Guy doesn't come across well in interviews, trying too hard to be Conor and all that, but I did think he stood up well to Khabib after the fence jump and it looked to me like his first instinct was to go for Khabib whereas Khabib seemed fairly eager to back off and let a few others get between him and Danis.
-1500 parlayed with a -400......toss the house on it LOL...
Mix should beat Ricky at +120......also like Caldwell (bigger stronger)-hopefully smarter by now LOL....--Arch-same thing---guys a 145 and will be top HEAVY----like Machida and McDonald but lil juicey=parlay stuff.....Rory seems more focused now-head in a better (still not great) place....I expect him to perform tonight....
Rampage almost avoided it--Machida should be 30-27 here with ease......
bjpenn85 gave THE_LOCKSMITH 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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