[Hman]

Best bets for Leo Santa Cruz vs. Abner Mares

Johnny Wilds
ESPN INSIDER

Leo Santa Cruz (34-1-1 19 KOs) will defend his "super" WBA featherweight championship against Abner Mares (31-2-1 12 KOs) from the Staples Center in Los Angeles on June 9.Here's a look from Vegas bookmakers, along with opinions from boxing experts, boxers, trainers and my prediction for the fight.

Where's the money going?

Jeff Sherman, Race and Sportsbook Manager of the Westgate Las Vegas, opened the fight with Santa Cruz -400 and Mares +300 on Monday. Amazingly, he has not seen action on this fight, which appears to be a highly competitive bout, and has since adjusted the line to -500/+375 based on the market price.

Odds for Santa Cruz-Mares

	Opening Odds	Current Odds
Santa Cruz	-400	-500
Mares	+300	+375
Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of June 6.

At William Hill US, senior trader Adam Pullen also opened the fight Monday with the same line, Santa Cruz -400 and Mares +300.

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The panel

• Colin Morrison (boxing sharp): "A rematch almost three years in the making. While Santa Cruz won a majority decision in 2015, I'm selecting Mares, now trained by Robert Garcia, to outwork and outsmart his California rival and take this one on a close, possibly split decision. Trilogy anyone?"

• Jamel Herring (ranked lightweight boxer): "Even though they haven't been as active, and many would say the rematch is overdue, I will admit that if it turns out like the first fight, it'll be really good. I could be wrong, but something is telling me that Mares just may edge this one out. I just feel Mares has more dog in him at times. Leo is a really good boxer, but Mares just has that chip on his shoulder. In the end I wouldn't mind seeing a trilogy as long as we don't have to wait another few years."

• Abraham Gonzalez (boxing sharp): "The battle for the right to be called the 'King of L.A' will be sure to live up to that title. Mares will come out boxing more this time around and will be successful early as he is able to move on his feet a little better than Santa Cruz. As we get into the middle rounds, that's where the real battle will occur with Santa Cruz making the appropriate adjustments and baiting Mares into an all-out war. In the end, I think Santa Cruz does just enough to win by decision. Santa Cruz by split decision."

Stephen "Breadman" Edwards (boxing trainer): "This fight looks like a draw, but the Santa Cruz jab and 1-2 earns him a split decision."

• Michelle Joy Phelps (boxing sharp): "In their first fight, these two threw 2,037 punches, landing 600. Without question, fight fans will be watching a fight of the year candidate at the Staples Center on June 9. Abner Mares has not only improved under the guidance of Robert Garcia, but Leo Santa Cruz is more mentally equipped going into the rematch now that his father has knocked out cancer. Both feel mentally stronger and both have big plans in their division should they win. In my opinion, it's going to come down to who wants it more than the other, because we already know both are coming with the kitchen sinks! Too close to call."

• Rich Marotta (Hall of Fame sportscaster): "The first fight with Leo and Abner was so good, I'd take anything close to it this time around. It's a good fan's fight. However, I suspect both fighters will attempt to be more disciplined and a little smarter this time around. I pick Santa Cruz to win a unanimous decision because he is still at the top of his game, is quicker, rangier and sharper. I look for the straight right of Santa Cruz to land often and be a decisive punch in this fight following his jab. In the end it will be too many sharp shots by Terremoto for the courageous Mares to handle and he will slow down perceptibly in the late rounds."

• John "Iceman" Scully (Boxing trainer): "I'm picking Abner to come back strong and do his thing. I think he knows he's on the spot and he's going to put up a good performance and win a decision."

• Marcos Figueroa (boxing sharp): "This should be a competitive, foul-filled fight. Santa Cruz by unanimous decision."
• Evan Young (boxing sharp) "This is a rematch of a competitive contest but one that was won clearly by Santa Cruz. I see a similar outcome in the rematch. Mares is a good little fighter but doesn't have the firepower to discourage Santa Cruz. Santa Cruz is the longer, busier and more dogged fighter. He seems to have an unlimited engine. The Santa Cruz express rolls on as he outworks and outpunches Mares again in an entertaining bout. Santa Cruz by decision or possibly a late-rounds stoppage."

• Luke Chapman (boxing sharp): "I'm backing Santa Cruz. This goes the distance, but Leo wins it. He likes to get inside and engage but he's a better boxer than most give him credit for. I love the way he made adjustments going into the second Carl Frampton fight. This will be competitive and close, but Santa Cruz will remain the 'King Of L.A.'"

• Gabe Oppenheim (boxing sharp): "Leo keeps stating he's in a better frame of mind because his father has conquered cancer. But he also has mentioned Jose's unfortunate post-cancer symptoms (extreme nausea being just one). So again, his camp hasn't been devoid of distraction, sadly. Meanwhile, I like Mares' pairing with Robert Garcia. I'm left with two fighters of very similar ability in different circumstances. I'd like to say that difference alone will decide the match, but I can't -- because Mares is a bit older, his fights inevitably are decided by cuts and fouls, and the PBC is more invested (if for those reasons alone) in Santa Cruz's career. Santa Cruz by super-thin decision unless a crazy cut derails the fight."

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Tale of the tape

Looking at the numbers

	Santa Cruz	Mares
Fights	36	34
Wins	34	31
Losses	1	2
Draws	1	1
KOs	19	12
KO%	53 percent	47 percent
Age	29	32
Height	5-7	5-5
Reach	70 inches	66 inches
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox

Leo Santa Cruz

"El Terremoto," which means "the earthquake," seems to be a fitting moniker as he has shaken up 34 of his 36 opponents. He is the WBA super featherweight champion and a three-weight class champion, winning belts also in the bantamweight and super bantamweight divisions. Since a draw in his second professional fight, he has only lost once and that was to Carl Frampton in July of 2016, but he eradicated that defeat in the rematch with a unanimous decision win in January of 2017.Santa Cruz relies on relentless pressure from the opening seconds of the fight until the final bell, if needed. He has a very good chin, fast hands and great ring IQ. His boxing hero, Julio Cesar Chavez, resembles his very own work ethic in the ring.

Abner Mares

The 32-year-old had a tough childhood on the streets of Mexico, engulfed by poverty and gangs. His family moved to Hawaiian Gardens, Calif. when he was 7 and life was much the same. He turned to boxing as a teenager but was sent back to Mexico at age 15 by his father so he could compete for a chance to represent Mexico's Olympic boxing team. He did earn a spot on the 2004 Athens team.Although he lost his first fight in Athens to Zsolt Bedak by a 27-24 controversial decision, he turned pro with a 112-8 amateur record with 84 KOs. He is a four-time champion in three weight classes. He has two losses on his resume, one shocking first round KO to Jhonny Gonzalez in 2013 and to his LA rival Santa Cruz in 2015. Mares brings impressive talent to the ring with good hand speed, movement and ring IQ. His boxing hero is Julio Cesar Chavez, whose work ethic he mirrors in each fight.

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Who will win?

The panel is picking Santa Cruz 7-3 with one "too close to call" from Michelle Joy Phelps. I have watched the first fight five times and my card was much closer to the 114-114 of Max Deluca than the 117-111 of Jesse Reyes and Steve Morrow. Fast forward nearly three years and I see the same Santa Cruz, who is a fine fighter, but I see a more complete fighter in Mares since his pairing with top-notch trainer Robert Garcia. I see solid value in Mares +400.

Pick: Mares +400 or better

[Grits n' Gravy]

Going to be a great fight. Going to see Crawford demolish Horn tonight.

[Broxbomber]

I like the draw at +2200. Going the distance is likely as neither guy is a big puncher / finisher, and it should be close.

Boxing has a much higher chance of a draw than MMA as boxing has an even number of rounds.

I also put a small bet on Mares by decision at +750.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like the draw at +2200. Going the distance is likely as neither guy is a big puncher / finisher, and it should be close.

Boxing has a much higher chance of a draw than MMA as boxing has an even number of rounds.

I also put a small bet on Mares by decision at +750.

Me too. On it!