Originally Posted by
MMAbetMASTA
He has the best takedown % (its like 85% or something) in the division and has taken down every opponent he's faced outside of the russian (who tibau got robbed against imo). He also has a solid 65 % tdd - his wrestling and top control is prob the most underrated in the divison. He's fought some legit grapplers and outside of shooting in and getting sucked into a guilotine via dumb mistake against joe daddy, I can see him controlling evan on the ground and fending off subs. He fought some pretty solid sub grappelrs. and when looking at his last 3 losses, they were all close very debatle fights. Personally I can't see how any sane person scored the guillard fight anything other than 29-28 tibau, rusky fight was disgusting, and even against Jim miller it was tooth and nail and not what I'd call a clear UD. Considering dunham was taking down more than once against lentz, aurelio, escudero and sherk, I have a hard time imagining tibau not getting him down a couple times. However, if tibua doesn't plan to use a heavy wrestling approach and plans to stand and bang, I agree this fight is more up in the air.
I agree he's slow, but his striking fundamentals are legit and I wouldn't say dunham has an advantage there. I can't call the stand up with confidence, and dunham can dance around and loop around the ring with strikes too quick for tibau, but I'm not sold on that and can't say either guy has the edge there (I do give tibau a power / ko edge).
Dunham is gonna have to excute a pretty incredible gameplan to win - he's gonna have to fend off tds, reverse clinches against the most massive lw in the divison, and outstrike a guy who I don't think anyone can say with certainty is worse than dunham at striking.
I'm not going big on tibau but I like the cheap price and will be taking him. Hopefully no one is going big on either guy cause its a tough nut to crack.