[cheeese]

Also pretty hard to take you seriously without the highlander video at the end of every post.

[Vaughany]

lol

[Noleafclover]

Need to have more chalky -500 plays MD, all about the chalk!

With this card, pretty much no other options.

[Sykes]

Luca had a bad night too dont take it to tough he sure dont, shrugs them off like a pro.

[Catchn_Picks]

I'm running pretty cold at the moment, on a pretty big downswing. Part of it is variance (though I was running ahead of EV previously, so I can't complain too much), as there have been at least six decisions that were either 50/50 or should definitely have gone my way in the last few cards. Made some -EV plays, too, though, so I probably need to step my game up. I have a lot of growing room as a handicapper, so I'm not too worried about it, as I know I've improved significantly since January, but it does suck. I definitely have room to work hard; lately, I've been putting in half the time I normally do, and it shows. Some of this is due to personal issues, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a lazy Dark Souls-playing degen. Luckily I have good bankroll management so I could suffer 3x this downswing without breaking a sweat. The next card doesn't look like a good rebound card, though.

Just an update. Gonna start putting more work in and stop wasting so much of my time.

Wow MD, a whole new level of props for this posting. It doesn't have the normal tone that you usually reflect. It also shows a fair degree of personal honesty that belies some of the recent stuff being bantered about regarding your "record keeping" model.

I think you are an outstanding MMA handicapper. One of the best around. Your digestion and use of information is very helpful to me and I rely upon your stronger considerations. The act of betting and profit/loss is sometimes a whole new dynamic...variance and all.

BOL

[MD]

Luca had a bad night too dont take it to tough he sure dont, shrugs them off like a pro.

Last I checked Luca's twitter, he was taking it preeeeetty hard. I guess since he has commitments to win, he'll naturally take it harder than I will, though. If he loses he has to answer to a lot of people. I just have to answer to myself and On2TheNext1.

Wow MD, a whole new level of props for this posting. It doesn't have the normal tone that you usually reflect. It also shows a fair degree of personal honesty that belies some of the recent stuff being bantered about regarding your "record keeping" model.

I think you are an outstanding MMA handicapper. One of the best around. Your digestion and use of information is very helpful to me and I rely upon your stronger considerations. The act of betting and profit/loss is sometimes a whole new dynamic...variance and all.

BOL

Thank you, I appreciate that. It's good to know that not everyone reading my thread is here just to see me fail. They're just the most vocal.

[MD]

Betting Hernandez pretty heavily at the moment. Unfortunately missed the insane opener, but still a lot of value.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Also pretty hard to take you seriously without the highlander video at the end of every post.

Yesterday's plays. Here you go son. This quickening is just for you.

Rothwell @ +120 parlayed with Mendes @ -450 1% of Bank Roll Profit = 168.89

Bendo @ -115 parlayed with Mendes @ -375 2% of Bank Roll. Profit = 273.62

Mendez straight @ -375 50% of Bank Roll. Profit = 1333.33

Couture @ +200 parlayed with Mendez @ -450 1% of Bank Roll. Profit = 266.67

Palelei @ +180 parlayed with Mendez @ -450 1% of Bank Roll. Profit = 242.22

Barnett-O @ -155 parlayed with Mendez @ -455 5% of Bank Roll. Profit = 503.37

10,000 Bank Roll. Do the math after the event to see my profit after this event.



Keep your nose clean kiddo & maybe I'll give ya a tip or two.

Oh & these plays were shared with BigDay, Dwil, & Sato before the event with best wishes to them.

[MD]

Where is it, exactly, that you managed to get $5000 down on Mendes at -375?

[Noleafclover]

It's good to know that not everyone reading my thread is here just to see me fail. They're just the most vocal.

Same as it ever was. FWIW, I couldn't give a shit if you succeed or fail

Where is it, exactly, that you managed to get $5000 down on Mendes at -375?

Would love to hear a response to this. Also curious how he managed to profit on Couture, but that's probably a typo.

[Educ8d Degener8]

So RP cashed Bendo and Couture parlays, huh...

[Vaughany]

So RP cashed Bendo and Couture parlays, huh...

Cos he's tht damn good brahz,

[Grabaka]

Airbet.com graded him as a winner

[The iron sheik]

brb refilling my account

[Vaughany]

hehe

[Vaughany]

Airbet.com graded him as a winner

Got a free $1000 air-bet from a local cuz

[Beelzebubzy]

Ron Paul. You are my favorite poster.

I need a new Mercedes. I'm going to tail you next event.

We putting 70% on Benavidez

[Vaughany]

Make it 95% like a true Alpha

[The iron sheik]

Going to go 100% on joeben. Been watching tape and listening to the macgyver theme on repeat for hours. Hell, I'm going to switch to the karate kid tournament theme (you know, Joe Esposito's You're the best around) and might up the bet to 130% if it goes way under -700. I know this method is not for everyone, it takes a true professional to reach these analytical heights.

[mirinquads]

ALL IN on JoeBone when he gets to -500, just not enough damn chalk for an all in bet otherwise, NOT ENOUGH DAMN CHALK

[Vaughany]

Slamming him has hard as the manlet slams Megan Olivi

[Rubber Guard]

Looking at your twitter and I am with Gabe, I am baffled as to why you didn't play Barnett? You were all over him when the fight was announced. You seemed to like him at the start and then he dropped like 200 points. How did you not like him and play him at -155 or there bouts? What did you see in Mir that held you off that? Before you posted plays I figured Barnett would of been your biggest play, yet you didn't even play him (on your twitter plays)

[Vaughany]

Probably because of the weigh-ins, it's not unusual to have your outlook completely changed after seeing what a fighter looks like during fight week and weigh-ins....I had a play on Cerrone months out and was reasonably confident he'd win. Then I watched his intereviews during fight week and heard about the arrest and lost all confidence in my initial cappin' of the fight so I arbed out while I still could a couple days before the weigh-ins. Many thought Barnett looked podgey at the weigh-ins while Mir looked in great shape

[Beelzebubzy]

He played early lines and might not hVe wanted more risk on Barnett

alll he had to do was throw it in a parlay
hell my parlay of mendes jobe Faber Barnett has me winning enough air for one day of breath

[Rubber Guard]

Meh, I don't see how it changes that much, especially for a guy like Barnett. You think he trashes Mir at first and like it at what? Lets say -280. Then it gets to -155 and you don't play because he looks a little extra fat? I can see if you expect injury is the reason, but no one thought that. I could maybe see if it looks like a TERRIBLE weight cut for a guy. But Barnett is always fat, he just looked a tad extra fat. A fat Barnett still would hold a big cardio advantage over Mir. Barnett is a professional guy who has done this a few times, far different from a young fighter who misses weight or has a bad cut. Barnett has always been the fat guy at the weigh ins. I just don't see how it changes that much when MD seemed to like him at the huge price he started out as. I personally saw little difference in his physique.

[Rubber Guard]

He played early lines and might not hVe wanted more risk on Barnett

alll he had to do was throw it in a parlay
hell my parlay of mendes jobe Faber Barnett has me winning enough air for one day of breath

Just figured it would be in the twitter plays. He played a few limit lines early and that was enough for him? When the price dropped by more than half? I just don't buy it.

[MD]

Had no interest in risking more on Barnett after seeing those weigh-ins. Barnett looked by far the worst I had ever seen him, and Mir looked much better than I expected. Barnett didn't look focused at all. I maxed Barnett at -230 and -270 expecting it to get worse and close around -350. I was way off, apparently. I don't recommend every play I make on my Twitter, I have a lot of plays on each card, so I just recommend the ones I like the most. I thought it would be disingenuous of me to post a play that I no longer feel comfortable making myself.

[MD]

I actually covered this earlier in the thread, by the way.

How heavy are you on Barnett MD?

Heavier than I want to be, that's for sure. Won't be crushed if he loses, but it would hurt.

What changed between then and now? I'm on Barnett fairly heavily as well.

Watched a lot of tape. Barnett looked like shit at the weigh-ins. Mir looked unbelievably good at the weigh-ins.

Nothing more to it than that. Still give Barnett the edge, but it was foolish for me to take Barnett -230. Never expected this kind of line movement.

Seriously. Don't just read my thread selectively.

[Beelzebubzy]

Why do ou think it was foolish to play -230?
Mirs line got better for dos santos and Cormier.

I too thought it would hover around -350. Ok more like -360

but Mirs chances were a crazy sub or out wrestling barnett ala the roy Nelson fight. Fwiw Nelson had the flu that event. I really didnt see him avoidin the clinch with barnett to win rounds striking convincingly. Moreover despite my nut hugging of mir I think his chin is now poopie

[MD]

Why do ou think it was foolish to play -230?
Mirs line got better for dos santos and Cormier.

I too thought it would hover around -350. Ok more like -360

but Mirs chances were a crazy sub or out wrestling barnett ala the roy Nelson fight. Fwiw Nelson had the flu that event. I really didnt see him avoidin the clinch with barnett to win rounds striking convincingly. Moreover despite my nut hugging of mir I think his chin is now poopie

I think that if I had a better grasp on public perception of that fight, I could have anticipated that line movement. Granted, I think most expected Barnett to close as a big favourite, but that just means we're all failing together.

I feel the same way about Mir's chances, but my biggest concern was that the fight would degenerate into a sloppy, lazy kickboxing match. I thought the only way that would happen was if Barnett chose not to push the action, force the clinch or pursue takedowns. A seemingly undertrained Barnett with a questionable mindframe was the worst thing that could have happened, with how I 'capped the fight.

[MD]

Here's the real question: What the f-ck is that Lucas Martins kid doing? I feel like he's going to show up to a fight some day with the ability to avoid punches, and then he'll be a monster (especially considering his plans to Rumblecut to 135), but right now he's a complete joke. And not just skill-wise. What a befuddling individual.

[Rubber Guard]

Was just looking for more insight/answer than he looked a little extra fat at weigh ins. As loving a guy at -300, and changing your mind at -155 because of weigh ins is unbelievable to me.

But if that is all it was then that is all I was wondering.

[MD]

Was just looking for more insight/answer than he looked a little extra fat at weigh ins. As loving a guy at -300, and changing your mind at -155 because of weigh ins is unbelievable to me.

But if that is all it was then that is all I was wondering.

I didn't say there wasn't value at -155, I think there definitely was. Just not going to tell people to play a line that I myself am not playing because of how I felt about the weigh-ins. I would feel pretty disingenuous if I did that.

[Beelzebubzy]

How much value is on jones?

I think this will be a horrible beating.

Iirc te Huna and diabete took Gus down from te clinch. Yes I know ages ago.

[Vaughany]

Bones sub will be tempting probably