Originally Posted by
MD
Couple more of my plays for tonight:
Payan +180. I really like this bet, but I'm hesitant to bet much as I've only seen one of Payan's fights. He has some great tools, though, and I 'cap him at around -130, factoring in how little footage I have on him and how weak his competition was. If he looked like this in all of his fights, he'd be -200 easily, I think. Moderate on this.
I'll be on Trujillo, probably small-moderate. Nurmagomedov is one of the most overrated fighters in the UFC and I don't consider him top twenty at 155. Tujillo has very good cardio, and the perfect style to beat Khabib, given his tendency to strike when pushed against the fence. His counter wrestling also looks very good. Khabib's striking is bad, but he swings with power, so he could find the knock out, but he should be out-matched here. Abel isn't a world-beater on the feet, or else I'd be larger on him. He should have the edge here though.
Maynard by decision moderate. Already summed up my thoughts on this. Hedged with Grant KO of the night +2300.
Moderate-large on Hunt/JDS starts round two at -222 and some other odds. Great prop I think.
Chalky, but I pounded Not Stevens Submission -750. Should be closer to the -2500 range. I love Whittaker ITD +525, amazing value, as it's a much closer fight than others seem to think. I have a lot of prop plays on this card and I'm starting to worry about it; I made many of them without considering how the lines would move, and ended up betting more props than I wanted to. I really like Cain/Bigfoot u1.5, moderate on that, and moderate on Bowles ITD, as I doubt he wins a decision here. I have a bet on Colton by decision, too.
I have some tiny plays on Te Huna by decision +650, and Cerrone by sub.
That's not it for my plays, but it's most of them. Will post the rest later when I've gotten more work done; a bit late getting stuff done for this card. A bit unhappy with some of my prop choices.