[MD]

Stephen Thompson -155 is my favourite play for this weekend. Burrell is a perfect fight for Thompson. I don't underestimate Burrell, as I think he's an incredibly talented athlete; I was one of the only (if not the only) people who played him against Villefort, and I recommended the play to others here, too, even after he missed weight. However, he's simply outmatched here. Thompson is a superb kicker, and his hands are actually surprisingly effective. He throws a wide variety of strikes and he's a master of controlling distance. I was actually really impressed with Thompson in the Brown fight, although I'm sure I was the only one; he showed outstanding striking, decent fight IQ and in the first round, decent counter-wrestling until he gassed, badly. I don't think Burrell has the cardio or pace to fully exploit Thompson's cardio, though. Burrell is known to gas himself, and I've never seen him attempt a take down. Burrell has solid hands, and should have a power edge. I don't think it'll amount to much, though; Thompson will pick him apart at range all night, and possibly even finish him with a head kick. Burrell has shown himself to be very susceptible to kicks in the past, and pretty much any strike he doesn't expect, and Thompson is very crafty. He should be around -300 here, and only that low because of his cardio and wrestling issues, and because of Burrell's potential. If the Thompson who fought Brown fought the Burrell who fought Villefort, Thompson could easily be -600.

This is an absolute gimme fight for Thompson and he should handily win. I'm moderate-large on Thompson hedged with Burrell by decision +429. If Burrell wins, it's a decision.

More plays to come.

[TheCalculator]

Stephen Thompson -155 is my favourite play for this weekend.

Amen. I'm actually a bit more worried that Burrell catches him with a big hook. Burrell has very good perception, timing and throws good power at odd angles. That being said -- Thompson should win this relatively easily.

[MD]

Amen. I'm actually a bit more worried that Burrell catches him with a big hook. Burrell has very good perception, timing and throws good power at odd angles. That being said -- Thompson should win this relatively easily.

I'm not too worried about Burrell's power, as Thompson's distancing and head movement should be enough to keep him out of trouble. I'm more worried that he starts spamming double legs.

[mirinquads]

He's done nothing but talk about how its going to be a standup war in interviews, but that could of course change after he's been kicked in the face a couple of times.

[ArchieUD]

Burrell is a great athlete and all, but I think his striking defense is to raw. Since I think Cain will win by GnP, JDS/Hunt to go the distance and GT to win by sub I'd say KOtN is up for grabs for Thompson at +1400.

[getlucky2win]

This is an absolute gimme fight for Thompson and he should handily win. I'm moderate-large on Thompson hedged with Burrell by decision +429. If Burrell wins, it's a decision.

More plays to come.

wouldnt not burrell itd be better?

[Vaughany]

wouldnt not burrell itd be better?

Well not if MD doesnt think he can finish ThompsoN!

[PunisherIND]

Well not if MD doesnt think he can finish ThompsoN!

vaughany, you're such goof. and your reading comprehension sucks.

[Grabaka]

[Vaughany]

vaughany, you're such goof. and your reading comprehension sucks.

lol it does

[Beelzebubzy]

You playing Kroch homie?

[MD]

Who?

[Beelzebubzy]

Froch I meant
my bad

[Sykes]

You should put a little on Ladbrokes if your going to be betting the boxing, they have an excellent live market for it, you can bet right through the fight.

[MD]

Couple more of my plays for tonight:

Payan +180. I really like this bet, but I'm hesitant to bet much as I've only seen one of Payan's fights. He has some great tools, though, and I 'cap him at around -130, factoring in how little footage I have on him and how weak his competition was. If he looked like this in all of his fights, he'd be -200 easily, I think. Moderate on this.

I'll be on Trujillo, probably small-moderate. Nurmagomedov is one of the most overrated fighters in the UFC and I don't consider him top twenty at 155. Tujillo has very good cardio, and the perfect style to beat Khabib, given his tendency to strike when pushed against the fence. His counter wrestling also looks very good. Khabib's striking is bad, but he swings with power, so he could find the knock out, but he should be out-matched here. Abel isn't a world-beater on the feet, or else I'd be larger on him. He should have the edge here though.

Maynard by decision moderate. Already summed up my thoughts on this. Hedged with Grant KO of the night +2300.

Moderate-large on Hunt/JDS starts round two at -222 and some other odds. Great prop I think.

Chalky, but I pounded Not Stevens Submission -750. Should be closer to the -2500 range. I love Whittaker ITD +525, amazing value, as it's a much closer fight than others seem to think. I have a lot of prop plays on this card and I'm starting to worry about it; I made many of them without considering how the lines would move, and ended up betting more props than I wanted to. I really like Cain/Bigfoot u1.5, moderate on that, and moderate on Bowles ITD, as I doubt he wins a decision here. I have a bet on Colton by decision, too.

I have some tiny plays on Te Huna by decision +650, and Cerrone by sub.

That's not it for my plays, but it's most of them. Will post the rest later when I've gotten more work done; a bit late getting stuff done for this card. A bit unhappy with some of my prop choices.

[MD]

Froch I meant
my bad

I like Froch a lot in that fight, but I haven't looked into it. I've never been too impressed with Kessler, I think Froch is too tough to be finished most of the time here and too powerful for Kessler to do anything with.

[Sykes]

I like Whittaker too hes like a mini Te Huna - I didn't know who he was until the weigh-ins he was one of the best on that TUF.

[MD]

I like Whittaker too hes like a mini Te Huna - I didn't know who he was until the weigh-ins he was one of the best on that TUF.

I'll go ahead and add that I think Whittaker is one of the most athletically gifted prospects in the UFC right now. He's technically poor but he has good timing and insane athletic ability. Good cardio and counter-wrestling, too. He will bully Smith if he can't get the takedown. I actually think Whittaker's going to get the upset but I haven't done enough work to make the play yet.

[DonnyMcslick]

You think KJ has any chance of beating Cerrone if it stays standing? Cowboy seems like even when he's getting battered he has no intention of bringing it to the ground

[MD]

You think KJ has any chance of beating Cerrone if it stays standing? Cowboy seems like even when he's getting battered he has no intention of bringing it to the ground

I do think he has a chance. Cerrone is at his best when his opponent is tentative and allows him to throw combinations without fear of the counter, as otherwise his poor head movement can get him in trouble. His best striking performance is arguably the Stephens fight, and by the second round Stephens was so afraid of Cerrone that he refused to even try to counter. He even almost quit in round three. KJ probably won't do that.

[MD]

Ouch, ugly night so far. Thompson can put me in the green though.

I may have a few more plays as the night goes on by the way. I forgot to post my Cain plays; large on Cain and moderate on Cain TKO/KO. Never underestimating Bigfoot, but this should be a slaughter.

[visualrealism]

Stephen Thompson cashed!!!

[MD]

Small on Trujillo +255 here. I think he's overrated and his striking isn't exactly great, but he stands a pretty good shot here. I 'cap Nurmagomedov at around -150 for his aggression alone.

[MD]

Stephen Thompson cashed!!!

No prob. Hope you didn't tail me on Payan though.

[visualrealism]

Lol same as last week, I didnt get to bet your first bet of the card. Maybe I blessed. I took a nap Lol

[tbird509]

i took md's advice on thompson,m.d is the best ive seen,i owe you,ill be in touch

[Beelzebubzy]

Two points for Froch homie. Put an extra hundo on it

[MD]

I took Smith decision and Whittaker KO + ITD here. Hopefully Whittaker gets the KO for some serious $$$, but I'll be up with either result. I really like Whittaker, so hopefully Colton isn't too much too soon.

[Sykes]

Took Witt ITD - sweet dude has good hands

[MD]

I love Whittaker ITD +525, amazing value, as it's a much closer fight than others seem to think.

Awwww yeeeeeah.

[Beelzebubzy]

I was going to play fight ends in 3rd round during the start of the third round but the woman had me carry crap for her.

Nice hit.

[MD]

Live betting Holloway +125, -150, -175, -200.

[MD]

wat

[matt05man]

wat

Agreed

[MD]

Remaining plays:

Moderate-large on Hunt/JDS starts round two -222, large on Velasquez, moderate on Velasquez TKO, Grant/Maynard distance -145, Maynard hedged with Grant KO +1000 and a very tiny play on Grant KO of the night +2300. Also got a tiny play on Te Huna decision +650, and this parlay:

Pending	5 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/25/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1041 Velasquez wins by TKO/KO -365* vs Any other result
				Pending	5/25/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1132 Any other result -569* vs Dos Santos wins by submission
				Pending	5/25/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1428 Any other result -8725* vs Noons wins by submission
				Win	5/25/13 7:30pm Props Fighting 1922 Any other result -505* vs Burrell wins by TKO/KO
				Win	5/25/13 6:30pm Props Fighting 2116 Any other result -750* vs Stephens wins by submission

EDIT: Velasquez TKO/KO is at -225 by the way, played it on Paddy.