Originally Posted by
MD
'Sup buddehs? Not gonna lie and say I've spent as much time studying this week as I did playing Mass Effect, but here are my plays, regardless.
I'm large on Lyoto Machida. I think he's far too slick for Henderson, and I find a Henderson KO to be extremely unlikely. I think Henderson can win a decision, in the same vein as Rampage, but Machida just wins this fight too often for anything short of a large play. I also have a small-moderate play on Machida by decision +132 and +115.
Schaub moderate. I'd be moderate-large or large on this if it weren't a heavyweight fight; Schaub can take Lavar down, and he can submit him. It's as simple as that. A larger bet isn't warranted at near-even odds simply because Schaub may choose not to do so. His fight IQ isn't the best. Also, he looked out of shape at the weigh ins. I hit Schaub by sub small, in the +800 range, also.
Nah-Shon Burrell small-moderate. I was a lot bigger on this (to the point where it seemed like I was the only one betting on this fight), until the weigh-ins; I even considered going large on it at one point. He has better cardio, he's more athletic, he's bigger, he's stronger, he's faster, and he's a better striker. They both have God-awful defence, but Burrell certainly has the more tested chin. Villefort's cardio is dogshit, and his only clear route to victory is really to take Burrell down and submit him in the first. There's a chance he could ground Burrell for two rounds and take a decision, but I doubt it. I just see Burrell being too slick for him. With how short notice the fight is, and the horrendous amount by which Burrell missed weight, I lost a lot of my confidence in this pick. Villefort is extremely overhyped, though. He's no big prospect.
Neil Magney moderate -145. Everyone talks about how Manley's clearest path to victory is to lay all over Magney, but Magney is a wrestler by trade, and is the clearly superior athlete. Given how much time he's had to improve, I see this as an easy bet.
Lawler/Koscheck goes the distance small-moderate -115, Kuivanen/Chiesa under 2.5 rounds -115 small.
Tiny prop plays are Machida wins KO of the night +1300, Lawler wins inside distance +485, Carmouche +900, Machida wins in round 2 +775, Faber by KO/McGee decision parlay +1000< . Nothing really substantial on any of them. I feel like Lawler is severely underrated tonight, though. Koscheck's fight IQ is low enough for me to think that he has a very decent chance of getting KO'd tonight.
Doing some study on the Robertson/Jardine fight, and I may add a play on that before the night is over.