1. #211
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hannibal View Post
    yasa exactly! to show you i have more betpoints than you have real money
    how else would you see if i didnt move it dumbass?
    LOL.

    Like an internet peacock uploading its feathers. That is pathetic.

  2. #212
    Dwil125
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hannibal View Post
    you went 2/8 so far out of your 9 total bets..
    but you're still good cause you'll be up if you manage to hit your last bet and go 3/9
    you're a joke buddy
    Who are these guys, and where do they come from? I never see them posting their analysis or picks, but they come on other bettors pages who there not as good as bashing picks

  3. #213
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dwil125 View Post
    Who are these guys, and where do they come from? I never see them posting their analysis or picks, but they come on other bettors pages who there not as good as bashing picks
    How dare you. I'll have you know that Hannibal has won almost 10000 betpoints, a figure which most of us can only dream of. At this rate, he'll be able to afford a Playstation Vita by the end of February.

    In seriousness, he got upset in another thread because I said that Glover is a mediocre striker, and now he's doing the whole "bring up our argument in every thread" thing that is so popular amongst the lower levels of internet forums. Sad, but we've all got to occupy our time somehow.

  4. #214
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    A

    In other news, contemplating playing Rashad by decision, also. May wait for a drop in odds
    Love this play. Got the opener at -125. Dont think the odds will get much better though.

  5. #215
    MD
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    I've been working more on my general gambling game recently so I haven't had much time to study this card. Pretty much all prop plays:

    Evans wins by 3 round decision* -144
    Fitch wins by 3 round decision* -107
    Benavidez points handicap* -3½ +125
    Hieron wins by 3 round decision* +222
    Overeem wins in round 1* +135
    Aldo wins by 5 round decision* +220

    Risky, but I expect value.

    The fight I studied the most is Hieron vs Woodley and that fight is a killer to call. Hieron's takedown defence is outstanding, but he's a very passive striker and it tends to cost him rounds. His passiveness and his willingness to let Askren throw looping punches in round one of their fight cost him the Bellator championship. Woodley probably can't take Hieron down and hold him there for three rounds, but he's athletic enough, powerful enough and, most importantly, fast enough to pin Hieron against the cage, do enough to remain competitive on the feet and win a decision. The fight is as close to 50/50 as any I've seen recently. I don't think Hieron will finish Woodley, so +220 on an event I see happening 50% of the time is pretty good.

    McCall's motivation coming into this fight is in question again, and he's a fighter who has a tendency to under-perform when he's not at his best mentally. Against Joseph Benavidez, that could very well lead to him being finished. The points handicap is the best prop for this fight by a mile. That, and the extremely questionable +900~ TKO line.

    Fitch will Fitch, Reem bettors should play this prop as he hasn't finished an opponent outside of the first round in a very long time. The only time in his last dozen or so fights where the fight has made it out of the first was against Werdum. Aldo play is risky, especially given Edgar's tendency to steal decisions, but I think Aldo wins a very large percentage of the time, so getting those odds on a decision prop is gold.

    Can't be assed listing my bet sizing for props, as it's hard to get much money down on them anyway, but the Fitch prop and the points handicap are the biggest, then Overeem, then Evans, who honestly is horrendously overvalued in this fight against a superior boxer with rapidly growing takedown defence, but I'm not going to bet on Nogueira with a small chance of a return, even if there's value there, simply due to my time constraints. I bought the card on UFC.com for €12.99. Unreal. Enjoy the fights, brosephs.
    Last edited by MD; 02-01-13 at 02:53 PM.

  6. #216
    Grabaka
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    Youll be a minute behind on UFC.tv
    Take it into mind if live betting
    I have Fitch Dec and Hieron Dec too
    GL
    Points Awarded:

    MD gave Grabaka 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  7. #217
    Dwil125
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    I agree with you on hieron, I think I'm going to add more on him.

  8. #218
    MD
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    Thanks G, I wasn't aware of that. Much obliged.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwil125 View Post
    I agree with you on hieron, I think I'm going to add more on him.
    I wouldn't recommend it. I think Hieron has the skills to win, but his passiveness is worrying. Woodley has a couple of clear paths to victory, and I smell a questionable decision in this fight.

  9. #219
    vikesbills24
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    Hieron is way to passive on his feet. Good wrestling TD, but he doesn't have enough skill to win standing up. Woodley's the more explosive puncher and I expect him to use that. It's going to be a close fight, but Woodley has enough flashy boxing skill to beat Hieron on the feet. I also don't really think he deserves to be in the UFC....Woodley does in my estimation.

    This fight going 3 rounds is my best estimation. Wouldn't bet anything on Hieron winning by dec. however. If he is going to win, it's going to be by decision, however.

  10. #220
    Dwil125
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    Woodleys not going to use anything but wrestling in that fight, I think im going to do a straight play on the over 2.5 also. It was -190 last i checked.

  11. #221
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by vikesbills24 View Post
    Hieron is way to passive on his feet. Good wrestling TD, but he doesn't have enough skill to win standing up. Woodley's the more explosive puncher and I expect him to use that. It's going to be a close fight, but Woodley has enough flashy boxing skill to beat Hieron on the feet. I also don't really think he deserves to be in the UFC....Woodley does in my estimation.

    This fight going 3 rounds is my best estimation. Wouldn't bet anything on Hieron winning by dec. however. If he is going to win, it's going to be by decision, however.
    Hieron is the far more skilled striker. Woodley's power, speed and athleticism combined with Hieron's unwillingness to push the pace are the only reason this fight is as close as it is. Hieron certainly belongs in the UFC, I thought he beat Ellenberger.

  12. #222
    MD
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    I've posted these parlays before, or most of them at least, so posting here again just to have them on this page:


    Win 1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -220* vs John Dodson
    Pending 2/2/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Alistair Overeem -350* vs Antonio Silva
    Pending 2/23/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -1175* vs Liz Carmouche
    Pending 2/23/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -225* vs Dan Henderson
    Pending 3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -450* vs Nick Diaz
    Pending 3/16/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rory MacDonald -195* vs Carlos Condit
    Pending 4/20/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ben Henderson -210* vs Gilbert Melendez
    Pending 4/20/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Daniel Cormier -350* vs Frank Mir
    Pending 4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen


    +1000~


    Win 12/15/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Hector Lombard -230* vs Rousimar Palhares
    Cancelled 12/29/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Chris Weidman -400* vs Tim Boetsch
    Win 1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -230* vs John Dodson
    Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -265* vs Frankie Edgar
    Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -475* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
    Pending 4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
    Win 11/17/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. -160* vs Any other result
    Win 12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision
    Win 12/8/12 10:30pm Props Fighting 1107 Gustafsson wins by 3 round decision +155* vs Not Gustafsson by 3 round decision


    +4100


    Win 12/8/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Alexander Gustafsson -210* vs Mauricio Rua
    Cancelled 12/29/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Chris Weidman -400* vs Tim Boetsch
    Win 1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -230* vs John Dodson
    Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -265* vs Frankie Edgar
    Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -475* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
    Pending 4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
    Win 11/17/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. -160* vs Any other result
    Win 12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision


    Just under +1600.


    Pending 4/27/13 5:00pm Boxing Fighting 602 Sergio Gabriel Martinez -1050* vs Martin Murray
    Win 1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -225* vs John Dodson
    Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -260* vs Frankie Edgar
    Pending 2/2/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -425* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
    Pending 2/2/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Alistair Overeem -300* vs Antonio Silva
    Pending 2/23/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -1175* vs Liz Carmouche
    Pending 2/23/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -225* vs Dan Henderson
    Pending 3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -450* vs Nick Diaz
    Pending 4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen


    +650.

    The first two parlays have some serious scratch on them.

  13. #223
    MD
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    Pending 2/2/13 11:59pm Props Fighting 1006 Not Edgar inside distance -925* vs Edgar wins inside distance
    Pending 2/2/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1110 Not Evans inside distance -262* vs Evans wins inside distance
    Pending 2/2/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1410 Not McCall inside distance -1525* vs McCall wins inside distance
    Pending 2/2/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1510 Not Tibau inside distance -550* vs Tibau wins inside distance
    Pending 2/2/13 9:00pm Props Fighting 1606 Not Hieron inside distance -585* vs Hieron wins inside distance
    Pending 2/2/13 7:00pm Props Fighting 2006 Not Figueroa inside distance -590* vs Figueroa wins inside distance

    +160

  14. #224
    Sacrelicious
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    Excellent plays MD, I'm staying away from the props and betting straight up but it looks like are on several of the same fighters. Lets get er done!

  15. #225
    MD
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    1. 2/2/2013 11:59 PM UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo* -170 vs Frankie Edgar
    2. 2/2/2013 9:30 PM Props Fighting 1503 Dunham/Tibau goes 3 round distance* -195 vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

    +140. Should be all for tonight, unless I decide to play Aldo straight.

  16. #226
    Bradbatross
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dwil125 View Post
    Woodleys not going to use anything but wrestling in that fight, I think im going to do a straight play on the over 2.5 also. It was -190 last i checked.
    Woodley's striking looked pretty good against Marquardt. He's going to clip Heiron with some hard shots.

  17. #227
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bradbatross View Post
    Woodley's striking looked pretty good against Marquardt.
    It really, really didn't. Marquardt is very hittable. I think the striking will be competitive, although Hieron has a huge technical edge.

  18. #228
    Bradbatross
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    Heiron definitely has the technical edge but Woodley has the power edge and Heiron is definitely hittable when he's worrying about defending the take down.

  19. #229
    MD
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    Playing Dunham straight.

  20. #230
    Sacrelicious
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Playing Dunham straight.
    I like it.

  21. #231
    Mercersux
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Playing Dunham straight.
    Was thinking of dunham but now that ive seen Your on it...POUND TOWN !!!

  22. #232
    MD
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    ^ It's a pretty close fight, I just think Dunham has more ways to win. I was originally going to avoid, but the talk of Tibau getting married tonight and his always-tough weight cut, combined with Dunham's unreal cardio... enough to push me towards a play.

  23. #233
    MD
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    I have Isaac +160 in live. Pretty decent chance Yves gets an undeserved decision here.

  24. #234
    MD
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    Lucky me.

  25. #235
    MD
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    Another note on the Dunham fight: I expect it to be ultra-competitive, with Dunham's speed and ability to avoid the clinch, combined with his cardio, leading him to a decision win, but it really is a close fight. Lots of room for robbery. Luckily for us, Tibau has a supsect chin, and Dunham has no problem throwing huge knees and kicks. Dunham probably has the ground advantage, also. If the fight is finished, I'd expect it to be on Dunham's terms. I'll spend most of the fight expecting Dunham to blast Tibau with a head kick and finish him on the ground. Still, close, and I'm not overly confident.

  26. #236
    Bradbatross
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bradbatross View Post
    Woodley's striking looked pretty good against Marquardt. He's going to clip Heiron with some hard shots.
    Ended pretty much how I thought.

  27. #237
    MD
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    2/2/13 11:28pm $50.00 $550.00 $600.00 Win 2/2/13 11:00pm Live In-Play Fighting 1202 Antonio Silva +1100* vs Alistair Overeem

    Was +1100, not +1500. Oops.

    All of the mad, and all of the moniez.

    My other two live bets:

    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    I played over 2.5 at -260 at the end of round one to hedge out of my Fitch bet. If Maia finishes I'll be burnt.
    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Playing Green +480. Not expecting it to cash, but good value in a close fight.
    Posted during the fights, Hannibro, just incase you want to come at me again. You can go check the timestamps in the UFC 156 thread.

    Also, need Not Evans Inside Distance to effectively seal my parlay.
    Last edited by MD; 02-02-13 at 10:42 PM.

  28. #238
    MD
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    Lost these hedges:

    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Playing Edgar +350 live in play.
    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Very small bet on Frankie +700, just incase.
    And these parlays crashed and burned:


    Win 1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -220* vs John Dodson
    Pending 2/2/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Alistair Overeem -350* vs Antonio Silva
    Pending 2/23/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -1175* vs Liz Carmouche
    Pending 2/23/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -225* vs Dan Henderson
    Pending 3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -450* vs Nick Diaz
    Pending 3/16/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rory MacDonald -195* vs Carlos Condit
    Pending 4/20/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ben Henderson -210* vs Gilbert Melendez
    Pending 4/20/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Daniel Cormier -350* vs Frank Mir
    Pending 4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen

    Win 12/15/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Hector Lombard -230* vs Rousimar Palhares
    Cancelled 12/29/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Chris Weidman -400* vs Tim Boetsch
    Win 1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -230* vs John Dodson
    Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -265* vs Frankie Edgar
    Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -475* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
    Pending 4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
    Win 11/17/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. -160* vs Any other result
    Win 12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision
    Win 12/8/12 10:30pm Props Fighting 1107 Gustafsson wins by 3 round decision +155* vs Not Gustafsson by 3 round decision


    Win 12/8/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Alexander Gustafsson -210* vs Mauricio Rua
    Cancelled 12/29/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Chris Weidman -400* vs Tim Boetsch
    Win 1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -230* vs John Dodson
    Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -265* vs Frankie Edgar
    Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -475* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
    Pending 4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
    Win 11/17/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. -160* vs Any other result
    Win 12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision


    Pending 4/27/13 5:00pm Boxing Fighting 602 Sergio Gabriel Martinez -1050* vs Martin Murray
    Win 1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -225* vs John Dodson
    Pending 2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -260* vs Frankie Edgar
    Pending 2/2/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -425* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
    Pending 2/2/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Alistair Overeem -300* vs Antonio Silva
    Pending 2/23/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -1175* vs Liz Carmouche
    Pending 2/23/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -225* vs Dan Henderson
    Pending 3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -450* vs Nick Diaz
    Pending 4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen

    Lost these prop plays:

    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Evans wins by 3 round decision* -144
    Fitch wins by 3 round decision* -107
    Benavidez points handicap* -3½ +125
    Hieron wins by 3 round decision* +222
    Overeem wins in round 1* +135
    And cashed the following:

    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Playing Aldo -200 moderate-large.
    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Putting a little on Nog +440 live. Not much, it won't affect my night if I lose, but I thought Nog won that round.
    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    More on Nog +250. I think he's up two rounds, at least one for sure.
    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    2/2/13 11:28pm $50.00 $550.00 $600.00 Win 2/2/13 11:00pm Live In-Play Fighting 1202 Antonio Silva +1100* vs Alistair Overeem
    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    I played over 2.5 at -260 at the end of round one to hedge out of my Fitch bet. If Maia finishes I'll be burnt.
    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Playing Green +480. Not expecting it to cash, but good value in a close fight.
    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    I have Isaac +160 in live. Pretty decent chance Yves gets an undeserved decision here.

    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Playing Dunham straight.
    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    1. 2/2/2013 11:59 PM UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo* -170 vs Frankie Edgar
    2. 2/2/2013 9:30 PM Props Fighting 1503 Dunham/Tibau goes 3 round distance* -195 vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Pending 2/2/13 11:59pm Props Fighting 1006 Not Edgar inside distance -925* vs Edgar wins inside distance
    Pending 2/2/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1110 Not Evans inside distance -262* vs Evans wins inside distance
    Pending 2/2/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1410 Not McCall inside distance -1525* vs McCall wins inside distance
    Pending 2/2/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1510 Not Tibau inside distance -550* vs Tibau wins inside distance
    Pending 2/2/13 9:00pm Props Fighting 1606 Not Hieron inside distance -585* vs Hieron wins inside distance
    Pending 2/2/13 7:00pm Props Fighting 2006 Not Figueroa inside distance -590* vs Figueroa wins inside distance

    +160
    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    Aldo wins by 5 round decision* +220
    I basically printed money tonight. Extremely profitable night pulled out of my ass when I was expecting to finish poorly after the first couple of main card fights. Also, I scored the main event 49-46 Aldo, for what it's worth. Excellent card and excellent results.

  29. #239
    Hannibal
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    I've been working more on my general gambling game recently so I haven't had much time to study this card. Pretty much all prop plays:

    Evans wins by 3 round decision* -144
    Fitch wins by 3 round decision* -107
    Benavidez points handicap* -3½ +125
    Hieron wins by 3 round decision* +222
    Overeem wins in round 1* +135
    Aldo wins by 5 round decision* +220

    Risky, but I expect value.
    once again you get worked on the majority of your bets posted before the event
    but still you've had another great night!

  30. #240
    MMAbetMASTA
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    man majority of your initial plays bust and live betting somehow sets you in profit, wish I had them live options....

    Sounds like live betting was a goldmine and savior for people tonight, books done fuckkked up with those settings seems like there was some ridiculous value.

  31. #241
    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hannibal View Post
    once again you get worked on the majority of your bets posted before the event
    but still you've had another great night!
    You can feel free to check the time stamps on my posts; click the blue arrows next to them. The only one posted after the fact was the Bigfoot play, and that was because I didn't make it in time. Anyone actively posting in the thread, and especially the live bettors, would be able to confirm this. Most of my live plays were also posted by others in the thread. Beelze was on a lot of the same plays I was.

    You sound bitter as hell. What's wrong brah? You have a rough night?

  32. #242
    face
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    good thread. will check this thread next time






    got shit pushed in like every other square.

  33. #243
    MD
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    ^Thanks bro.

    Oh, also, Hannibal, my biggest play of the night was Aldo moderate-large, which I posted before the fight started.

    Watching the post-fight; is the scoring really that controversial? Most seem to agree Aldo won.

  34. #244
    Hannibal
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    i'm just busting your balls
    I feel you're off sometimes but you do have some moments of insight

    it's not like you're sacrilicious or that pouyopopopop guy

  35. #245
    DeFactoCrippler
    DEFACTO© SAVES IDIOTS AND GONZOIDS
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    You can feel free to check the time stamps on my posts; click the blue arrows next to them. The only one posted after the fact was the Bigfoot play, and that was because I didn't make it in time. Anyone actively posting in the thread, and especially the live bettors, would be able to confirm this. Most of my live plays were also posted by others in the thread. Beelze was on a lot of the same plays I was.
    I can confirm that it is difficult to post the live bets in time.

    but if you couldnt post it in time why past post it

    and make a big deal out of it

    you certainly didnt help anyone by doing so

    not to mention that it is rather "convenient"

    that you past post big live wager

    recouping all the losses from your pre posted losers

    but who am i to question

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