[tsilvetti]

Wanted to see who you guys are liking in this fight. Im getting the odds currently at Diaz -130 Guida +100. Guida is from my hometown and Ive talked to him at a few bars recently, so I have to root for him, but hes up against a well rounded young fighter here in Diaz. Guidas last loss came to Huerta in the 3rd due to a choke, Guida had Huerta almost finished in that fight when he landed a viscious right that put Huerta on his back. As always anything can happen and Guida was submitted. I like Guidas style , posses great standing game aswell as takedowns, very quick like Uriah Faber type. The majority of Diaz wins have came from submission and thats where I think he will run into a roadblock with Guida as it will be hard enough keeping up with Guidas pace. I feel Guida should be the favorite here but I will tak him and the even money to the bank on this one.

[supershark]

I wouldn't say that Diaz has a well rounded game but his strengths make up for his weaknesses. His wrestling (both offensively and defensively) is poor, he's easily taken down, although that isn't the best place to put him as he is a phenom off his back.
Just looking at this fight I would give the edge in strength, and cardio to Guida; however they have equivalent "heart" in my opinion which is normally Guida's strongpoint. Guida is also proboply a little more dangerous on the feet then Diaz ,who lacks power, but I dont see this fight ending in a knockout for either fighter.
Im fairly confident that this fight ends in a decision win for Guida, followed up by a barrage of post fight swearing and debauchery by the diaz corner.

[tsilvetti]

Completely agree with you supershark. Guidas wrestling is superior , but they may get him in trouble as Diaz is great on the ground , but I highly doubt Diaz will go in for many takedowns. Are you betting Guida?

[onemorebet]

You have to go with Diaz in this fight but it is cool that you have spoken with Guida. If you watch Guida's fight with Danzig you can see he had trouble on his feet and is clearly a wrestler who wants to take the fight to the ground but that is where the problem was... He had trouble keeping Danzig on his back and didn't look efficient with his ground and pound which he should use as his strategy in all of his fights. Guida certainly is in great shape but his wild and fast paced tempo will leave him vulnerable again and I am not betting that he has improved much in the four months to prevent himself from tapping again. He likes to please the crowd with his takedowns and slams rather than actually winning the fight. Again in his last fight with Danzig, instead of taking advantage of taking Danzig's back, Clay opted for a sloppy suplex that did nothing but deplete energy-
Best bet Nate otherwise you are praying for a KO or hoping for a decision. With Nate a submission is a real threat and could win a decision just as easily.

[Bread]

tsilvetti...I am totally looking forward to this fight. Almost as much as the main event. That Huerta fight was awesome, and yes, Guida looked to have had it won several times. I lost $$ that fight, but was highly entertained. Just like I lost $$ on the Tyson Griffin fight...but one of the best fights I've ever seen.

I'm going heavy on Guida here. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD! PLEASE! GUIDA!!!!

[The HOFF]

Even if Diaz wins, we might be in luck here guys.
hits from the bong

This retarded thug will most likely fail a drug test like his idiot older brother and then have the fight ruled a no contest. HA!

[tsilvetti]

Bread , im with you as well , except my bankroll took a 80% hit last night in NCCA action , so im pretty bummed , it will be a game time decision on this one if I choose to put some more bucks on. As of now im taking him at +100 , for 350 , I wantd to double that. I also wanted action on the GSP fight but its at -200 so its all in Guidas Fists for me , Have faith bread! And Hoff your exactly right , Sad thing is these atheletes gain all this stardom and can blow it just like that.

Also did any of you see the video of Diaz and why he wouldnt do an interview. talk about no class makes me not like him even more.

[onemorebet]

If you just took a hit man seriously this is the best event to make it back. GSP is no lock he can't win with subs or on his feet. Instead go with a parlay with Jon Fitch, Jake O'Brien, and Matt Arroyo. These are all locks and Arroyo is good value. Watch Cramers loss on TUF and see how sloppy and bad he was. Then throw another couple of units on Jon Jones this play won't miss and reminds me of the Ben Henderson line on WEC 38. Go to MMAvideolinks.com and you can watch any fight you are unsure on. Favorites almost always hit in MMA lines, and I think these are the strongest locks. I think Jon Jones and BJ Penn will be the only 2 upsets on this card, but regardless don't take too many dogs because history shows they more than likely won't hit.

[tsilvetti]

onemorebet , on my site i am unable to parlay fights or else I would be all over it. O'brien and Arroyo arent even on the ticket with my site which im upset about. I do like Jones for the upset aswell. and reat site , thanks for the link.

[Bread]

tsilvetti..I just mentioned in another thread about Diaz not doing the interview. Just watching this guy makes me insane with anger. I become livid and my shoes fly off.

If he beats Guida, I'm not making love to my wife til 2010.

[poetwarrior41]

[tsilvetti]

Nice post Poet , no class , I wanna see Guida pound this guy and put him in his place.

Bread hahahahhahahhahahahhahahhahhahahahhaha , enough said. lol

[brooks85]

...if he beats Guida, I'm not making love to my wife til 2010.

Well, you better get one of these.

[j0hnnyv]

diaz will win this easy via whatever he wants. guida is very very overrated. my money would never be on that caveman. nasty nate diaz will either make him tapout or it would be a unanimous decision.

be very very careful, i recommend locking in diaz now at -130 or -140ishhh before it moves tomorrow night to like -170.

[tsilvetti]

I would love to see the line jump that big! Guida overrated? I think the other way around , Diaz just hasn't been punched in his mouth hard enough , those are powerful words to say he will easily lol silly.

[brooks85]

wont be easy, but look at Guida record 50% are from submission and their is very little chance he will submit or knock diaz out. Franca only person to submit him so far. 5 out of 9 of Guida's loses have come by submission, however, only one in the ufc too Huerta. I like Diaz straight up but not im my parlay, too close. Either Diaz wins by submission, might be able to get the decision with his striking but if it goes to decision it will be guida's.

[tsilvetti]

I think Guida will be ready for the ground game as Diaz is his biggest test submission wise yet.

Brooks who you tossing in your parlay?

[brooks85]

I have 100 bucks left at my first sportsbook after my withdrawal so Im going out with a bang

I think these guys have huge advantages
O'brien
Fitch
Wilson
Machida

I also think Manny will be way to much for Thiago to handle.
Arroyo, who is very good at BJJ, is fighting Cramer is very bad at BJJ and is literally a rookie.
And im going to do a 50/50 on GSP/Penn on my parlays so

Obrien
Fitch
Wilson
Machida
Manny
Arroyo
Penn/GSP

I would include bonnar but its to risky and Karo, normally, would destroy this guy but I dont know what is up with him. So, im going to keep those two guys straight up bets. Same with Diaz.

[MilfDriller]

anybody know the result of the katsidis/ramirez fight in the philiphines?

thx

[brooks85]

You could even add Velasquez to the parlay. He fights next weekend.

[keitht]

love the carpenter

[j0hnnyv]

Nate Diaz -120 it is!!!!!

[tsilvetti]

GUIDA BABY!!! amazing fight , diaz threw more punches but had an 8 inch reach on him , Guida controlled that fight with superior wrestling and takedowns , wow !!

[Bread]

I finally saw Diaz lose. Praise DMX it finally happened.