[trytrytry]

this prop is at sportbet.. is this free money or is this challenge skipping something??



NCAA Basketball - ESPN Tournament Challenge 2015
Thu 3/19 28991 Anyone on ESPN.com has a perfect bracket +2000
12:00PM 28992 No one on ESPN.com has a perfect bracket -6000

[yisman]

apparently people are actually betting it and tying their money up

it went from 1/60 to 1/200

[trytrytry]

best you can tell is that actually a perfect bracket the one in a trillion chance?? or is the espn challenge some other format???

[yisman]

best you can tell is that actually a perfect bracket the one in a trillion chance?? or is the espn challenge some other format???

it's just about a regular perfect bracket, which is impossible

if you want to know why it specifies ESPN it's because ESPN has the most brackets entered of any site by far

[MCherry281]

The odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion. So that's 1 in 9,200,000,000,000,000,000 I'm pretty sure we will never see one. Great odds for billionaires that want to collect free interest.

[playersonly69]

Well the implied odds are a lot better than 1 in a trillion. First of all, if you assume that no #16 will win their first game then eliminates a couple of million possibilities right there.


then if you take out any team higher than a 12 seed making the final 4, you could pare it down a lot more.


But the main thing is that if the max is $50, how much do you have to risk to win $50?? Well you wouldn't get paid until after the whole tournament is complete. So that is a while to have money tied up to only win $50

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

The odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion. So that's 1 in 9,200,000,000,000,000,000 I'm pretty sure we will never see one. Great odds for billionaires that want to collect free interest.

Those odds suggest that each game was a 50/50

The top 16 seeds' first round games are all probably closer to 85/15

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

Playersonly and I basically post the same thought at the same time lol

[goofyre]

Warren Buffet not doin the Billion dollar bracket this year. Maybe Kentucky being so much better than others scared him off.

[playersonly69]

With Kentucky being such a big favorite ABSOLUTELY increases the odds greatly in favor of completing the bracket.


Basically, you need to pick 65 games in a row to win it all.


1. Now if you eliminate all 16 seed of winning, then you need to win 61 games.

2. Lets go ahead and put Kentucky in the final 8. So that gives you 2 more wins. Now you need 59 wins

3. Lets go ahead and assume that the other #1 seeds advance to sweet 16. Now that would be 3 more wins. Now we need 56 wins.

4. Tough call here, but lets assume that all #15 seeds lose first round and that all 2 seeds make it to final 16. That very well might not happen, but the odds are there for it to happen. Then we can eliminate another 8 games. Now down to 48 wins needed


And we could easily pare down another 16-20 games based on what should happen in the first and second round. Even though we would still need 30 wins or so, most of those wouldn't exactly be 50/50 either

[playersonly69]

I ****** up the post above, I put the wrong amount of wins needed. You only need 63 wins. So every example above needs to subtract 2 wins

[trytrytry]

po are you on drugs?