[Pauulzcappin]

over 65% of the public on San Francisco and the line has been steady since opening

[hawley]

i like the under to, check it out

not that i want to play totals for a while

[Angela]

I like it....Zito has been not that flash hot lately and Hudson shut them down once already

[Fishscale]

Take the runline @ +160. Zito will get lit up early, he's got dead arm.

But the real POD is Houston.

[Kraghen]

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants +120 odds
Visit Touthouse.com for more MLB picks from Matt Fargo

This line is based on the starting pitching matchup and nothing else. While the pitching makes up a big part of the number, looking at the overall team is just as big and the Giants clearly have a significant edge. San Francisco has won four straight games to remain only a game back of the Padres in the National League West. This recent run has put the Giants two games over .500 away from home on the year and while that isn’t spectacular, it is better than the Diamondbacks home record.

While the Giants have won four in a row, Arizona has dropped four in a row and with the first two losses in this series, it dropped to 2-10 over the last 12 meetings on the season. While the pitching has been the big problem all season, the offense has shut down during this skid as the Diamondbacks have averaged only 2.5 rpg over the last four contests. Overall Arizona is 22 games worse than San Francisco on the season and it is sitting at 34-40 at home.

The pitching is where the Diamondbacks have the advantage but a contrarian look gives us value on the underdog.

Barry Zito has struggled of late and for the Giants to make a run, he needs to get back on track. Zito is 0-7 with a 5.79 ERA in his last 10 games including a 9.51 ERA in his last six games. He hasn’t won a road game since May 5th at Florida, so he’s more than due. Playing the due card is never the way to go but this is a good spot as the Giants are 23-8 in Zito’s last 31 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game.

The Diamondbacks counter with Daniel Hudson who has bee the complete opposite of Zito. Since coming over from Chicago in the Edwin Jackson deal, he is 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA and Hudson was named the NL Rookie of the Month for August. That is some pressure added to the table now. All seven of his starts with Arizona have been quality outings including one against the Giants. However, this is the first time in these games that he will see a team for the second time and that is an edge for the offense.

San Francisco falls into a great contrarian situation as well. Play on National League underdogs with a moneyline between +100 and +150 that have an on-base percentage of .350 or less and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.25 or worse over his last three starts going up against a team with a bullpen whose season WHIP is 1.55 or worse. This situation is 31-11 (73.8 percent) since 1997. 3* San Francisco Giants

At this price, I'm taking the Giants... who knows? They can sweep the Diamondsback tonight.

[ROFLcopter]

I agree. The line has not budged AT ALL

[Metalhead]

Arizona looks good as long as Reynolds and Upton play.

[Pauulzcappin]

Arizona looks good as long as Reynolds and Upton play.

Yea, you are probably right. Reynolds is 8 for 17 against Zito with 3 homers.

[smitch124]

Zito has been awful and Giants looking to skip his next start with a day off on Monday (that's definitely not a sign of faith).

[sfisher7]

I'm on Arizona, probably should have just gone ff with the Ari bp, hopefully hudson goes deep into the game

[texhooper]

i think i like this play too. nice find. i'll be watching this one until gametime and make a decision.

[hawley]

Yea, you are probably right. Reynolds is 8 for 17 against Zito with 3 homers.

i see reynolds in but not upton

i still like the play

[NYSportsGuy210]

I like Oakland Athletics and Gio Gonzalez today. I am already locked into the Yankees RL, Phillies (-1.5), Texas (-1.5) and Braves RL for today.

[Gee]

agree with d-backs.

also like the rockies and st louis in the games starting soon based on the line movement and public betting across a number of books.

[bhssoccer89]

rockies and dbacks also look like the play for me

[texhooper]

1-0 early. bring it on san fran!!! pansies.

holding -130...

[texhooper]

dbags tied it up, 1-1...did anyone else actually take them?

[hawley]

2 - 1

i took them and their TT

[texhooper]

heck yeah man.

hold em dbags, hold em!!!

[lakerboy]

i have them for 2 bills and giants tt under 4 for a bill. i really need them both to hit to salvage my night. hudson can pitch 8 innings tonight.

[cala56]

i put 5 units ti arizona to avoid the swep whit hudson, he is pitching great

[texhooper]

nice lb i just checked your thread after you posted and saw that. you're too damn popular man, i can't keep up with you or paco's baseball threads.

paulz we're chilling in here sippin 40s man. where are you?

[Pauulzcappin]

I was slitting my wrist as I saw Matt Capps make my -1 be a push on Minnesota

[Pauulzcappin]

Just cashed em first five, now I need them for the game and TT over 4.

[texhooper]

jesus, you had three bets on them? you baseball guys kill me.

3 more innings and some insurance with hudson pitching and you might cash all three.

[texhooper]

pauulz i'm rooting yours and lb's tt over to come through. let's go dbacks!

[Pauulzcappin]

If they get one run I'll be happy with a push as long as the closer doesn't screw up.

[Pauulzcappin]

f\*\*k you Mark Reynolds.

[hawley]

reynolds is a POS

[hawley]

scrub swings at the first pitch

i swear whenever i bet against arizona this guy hits the ball long all the time

[hawley]

im not even confident 2 runs is enough for gutierrez either

[texhooper]

well that sucks about the int walk to get the dp. but this might be the game, and if the g-men take it to extras i hope we all win and push on those tt's.

[texhooper]

im not even confident 2 runs is enough for gutierrez either

husssshhhhhh.....

[hawley]

husssshhhhhh.....

im on arizona to dont worry

[Pauulzcappin]

Gutierrez isn't bad, I believe he can close this game.