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Dodgers at Padres……
Padres on the radar.
Gonsolin had 16 wins and 1 loss this year. It’s a mirage.
Snell stunk up the joint his last outing.
The recs are pounding Tony G and the world beater Dodgers as a thin favorite.
Haven’t pulled the Padres trigger yet but it’s shaping up that way.
It’s always the opposite or at least most of the time gambling
Man, here we go again. Last time we had this game I was saying I saw so much value on SD there had to be a mistake.
Now it has flipped.
I have a no vig line here of -139.6/+139.6, call -/+ 140.
That 20 cents of value we got on SD is now 20 cents on LAD.
I've been on, with my opening predictions, line movement, accurate lines to the market close and we've even been seeing the value side of that no vig line winning.
On top of that, it's the Dodgers. I hate when they are selling the Dodgers and a value line like this that just paid as a +160 dog is good first step to selling the Dodgers, lol.
I've checked, over and over, for errors, and you guys know I've been scarce with sharing my numbers until a couple of days ago, and if I weren't on such a roll with all I mentioned above I might not even be posting this.
I can't find errors but the market is what the market is.
It's Friday night, value has been paying, and it's the Dodgers at stake in the swing game.
I can 100% respect you veterans for seeing SD here. Sometimes that "line seems low something's up" mentality has a ring of truth to it.
I have Fund, that is up, that will take the Dodgers. It must, and I have another that makes a darn fine attempt at trying to quantify that those intagibles of this kind of wacky Friday or Saturday night, and unfortunately it doesn't say SD.
It says to pass here. Both Funds will win in the end, I am conifident, so I might have been on both sides here, in different formulas, had I seen value on SD. Not going to share my no vig line in that second, basically Contrarian Fund, but suffice to say it almost takes SD here.
Almost. If they start trying to run some Dodger steam by game time, pushing toward the no vig line I posted, I could see a SD trigger on top of that LAD value already seen.
This is the reality of looking at the markets from multiple, very different, lenses but using the backdrop of some pretty good numbers I can work with.
Combine what I said above with Lock's radar and Lakeshow's post, you can see why I can already see this "value" Dodger play being a tough one to get.
We haven't even started and I'm bringing out the sharks...
Actually, because of the situation I describe above, we've gone to the early lead bets, because "KVB hates to lead early" but the numbers are often off for us and the pile can get splashed before halftime.Originally Posted by RangeFinder
The thing is, "KVB hates to lead early" in the contrarian plays.
If we can get some movement on SD I can pick them up pre game as dogs. Next, I'll be watching the LIVE markets closely using a whole different index to define value, but they will include pregame numbers. Going to add to the position to allow for a decent sell back LIVE and still be in a position, if possible.
It doesn't always work out ideally but if I'm paying attention I can avoid getting caught naked. It's a methodology of trading that we have been able to uncover to help stabilize profit or loss, whichever comes from it. We get the value of the early SD lead, if any, and you get the 1st five when they splash before halfitme.
Starting to think my no vig Contrarian Market Adjusted line is what is being treated as the sharp number in the market. And that's why I'm on the number, for the most part, in that Fund and can't get the overlay.
Effectively, going back to my first post about the market, we get inherent value reasons to buy the Dodgers but clearly to get that for SD we are being sidelined.
I've talked about the purpose of the line to be to attract, detract, and to even sideline groups of bettors.
Forgive my long posts, but I'm trying to let the Forum into my office, to get a view how we use numbers, experience, and adjusted numbers based on that experience to formulate our view of the market.
Could the market be sidelining those guys looking for just a slightly better number on purpose?
We are watching closely, not only with multiple different types of services, but computer scripts logging in from different locales studying the offered real time lines.
All this shit over an MLB game.
No wonder I'm getting grey hairs...
One more thing, if somehow this line adjusts downward, and it's SD that appears to be getting the action, that would be, effectively, an RLM situation and while that is not always a predictor, it would likely bode well for SD in this spot.
The vibe is telling me Padres
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Market moving against the Pads a little 17 min before 1st pitch….
Don’t love the move from 110 to 114
Let’s see what materializes over the next 9 minutes
113
do not like the texture of this line move
If we go back to +110 it may upgrade to 2 units.
But, ya, Jaker, it could also turn into a no play at 113
Back to 110 @ BM
Holding pattern for another 60 seconds
Gonna be a 3-0 type game to either side
Under 5.5
7/4
LA Dodgers @ SD Padres 15/10/2022
Alternative Game Totals
To Run
Single 1 x £50.00
Total Stake £50.00 To Return £137.50
I am in at +110 for a unit.
I think all these little moves we've been watching were pretty nominal and maybe meaningless in terms of texture; maybe. Just couldn't get the push one way or the other.
If it is the Padres then fukk those fukkers for pinching some of us out.
lol
Guys we know what Blake Snell is capable of in the past
CRIS and CIRCA may have had a nice little drop towards SD though.
So there's that.
If I wrote all that, I'd be as bald as jj.Actually, because of the situation I describe above, we've gone to the early lead bets, because "KVB hates to lead early" but the numbers are often off for us and the pile can get splashed before halftime.
The thing is, "KVB hates to lead early" in the contrarian plays.
If we can get some movement on SD I can pick them up pre game as dogs. Next, I'll be watching the LIVE markets closely using a whole different index to define value, but they will include pregame numbers. Going to add to the position to allow for a decent sell back LIVE and still be in a position, if possible.
It doesn't always work out ideally but if I'm paying attention I can avoid getting caught naked. It's a methodology of trading that we have been able to uncover to help stabilize profit or loss, whichever comes from it. We get the value of the early SD lead, if any, and you get the 1st five when they splash before halfitme.
Starting to think my no vig Contrarian Market Adjusted line is what is being treated as the sharp number in the market. And that's why I'm on the number, for the most part, in that Fund and can't get the overlay.
Effectively, going back to my first post about the market, we get inherent value reasons to buy the Dodgers but clearly to get that for SD we are being sidelined.
I've talked about the purpose of the line to be to attract, detract, and to even sideline groups of bettors.
Forgive my long posts, but I'm trying to let the Forum into my office, to get a view how we use numbers, experience, and adjusted numbers based on that experience to formulate our view of the market.
Could the market be sidelining those guys looking for just a slightly better number on purpose?
We are watching closely, not only with multiple different types of services, but computer scripts logging in from different locales studying the offered real time lines.
All this shit over an MLB game.
No wonder I'm getting grey hairs...
One more thing, if somehow this line adjusts downward, and it's SD that appears to be getting the action, that would be, effectively, an RLM situation and while that is not always a predictor, it would likely bode well for SD in this spot.
I think at least one of your funds has a play.
LMAO of course the Padres scored first.
At this point they really are selling the Dodgers and have been.
Dodgers could be in bigger and bigger trouble as the night moves on.
Then again, we've seen this contrarian dog take the early lead only to give it up.
I don't think that happens tonight, that's the stand I'm taking. Now when I can't find any live numbers to support any SD bets, and only ones that only beg us to take the Dodgers, then I'll have that confirmation...lol.
Continue to sideline the winning bet and continue to take the LA action.
When you know what the market should be, even live, then you know when they are fukkin with whomever they are fukking with.
Snell has that playoff pedigree
Dodgers LIVE might a poker suck a long hand.
I don't have to be right, we are still dealing in probabilities, but this is an all too familiar scene.
can get dodgers at a real nice live $$ now. admire gonzo for tryinggot 4-outs before he exited
Kinda wild the Padres didn’t push a run across there
can get dodgers at a real nice live $$ now. admire gonzo for tryingDodgers going to look like a good deal all night long, I think.
one of us will be happy. I’m on Friars, I passed on the +$200-plus live “hedge opportunity”
But if the Padres create a margin gap, then the bettors might fold on the suck a long bets.
I believe tonight's winner is going to be SD, you got this. Dodgers could be a dead end.
I took Pad's TT over 3.5. Just thought they're bats will stay hot.
I’m also holding two series prices on the FriarsI believe tonight's winner is going to be SD, you got this. Dodgers could be a dead end.
betts kill the rally?
big fish free agent fails, stay tuned
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KVB gave Nate rasta 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
