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Originally Posted by FUqer
Saturday Plays 5/6
--> Royals +110
--> Phillies -105
--> Cardinals +104
--> Indians/Royals Under 8 -105
--> Blue Jays Rays Over 8 -105
--> Cardinals/Braves Over 8 -120
--> White Sox/Orioles Under 9 +100
--> Tigers/Athletics Over 8 -120
--> D-Backs/Rockies Under 11.5 -110
--> Marlins/Mets Over 9 -105
_______________________________
Added: Marlins/Mets Over
Sunday Plays 5/7
--> White Sox +114
--> Phillies +120
--> Twins +161
--> Tigers +100
--> Giants -108
--> D-Backs +108
--> Pirates -110
--> Giants/Reds Over 8.5 -108
--> Marlins/Mets Over 8.5 -108 (No Action)
--> Cardinals/Braves Over 8.5 -108
--> Nationals/Phillies Under 8.5 -110
--> Indians/Royals Under 8.5 -110
--> White Sox/Orioles Under 8.5 -110
--> Blue Jays/Rays Over 8 -104
--> Tigers/Athletics Over 8.5 +100
_________________________
Yesterday
MLB = 5-4-1 = +0.94
___________________________
MLB Season
ALL = 66-77 for -9.38
S/U = 44-53 for -7.32
O/U = 17-18 for -2.17
R/L = 5-6 for +0.11
---------------
Dogs = 23-24 for +4.18
Favs = 21-29 for -11.50
----------------
Over = 10-9 for +0.45
Under = 7-9 for -2.62
----------------
April = 42-55 for -12.69
May = 24-22 for +3.31
___________________________
ALL PICKS 5/7
SU = Yesterday 5-6 for -1.12 (Total 91-85 for -0.44)
OU = Yesterday 6-8 for -2.55 (Total 80-83 for -1.95)
RL = Yesterday 3-1 for +2.38 (Total 8-8 for +0.08)
TT = Yesterday 2-3 for -1.05 (Total 5-5 for -0.25)
----------------------------------
SU
White Sox +114
Phillies +120
Twins +161
Tigers +100
Giants -110
Yankees +118
D-Backs +108
Mariners -128
Indians -110
Braves +108
Pirates -110
Marlins +101
--------------
OU
Giants/Reds Over 8.5 -108
Marlins/Mets Over 8.5 -108
Cardinals/Braves Over 8.5 -108
Nationals/Phillies Under 8.5 -110
Indians/Royals Under 8.5 -110
White Sox/Orioles Under 8.5 -110
Tigers/Athletics Over 8.5 -125
Astros/Angels Under 8.5 +100
Blue Jays/Rays Over 8 -104
Rangers/Mariners Over 8.5 -110
D-Backs/Rockies Under 11.5 -110
Brewers/Pirates Under 8.5 -120
Yankees/Cubs Over 7.5 -115
Dodgers/Padres Over 7 -120
Red Sox/Twins Over 7.5 +110
---------------
RL
Angels -1 +125
Dodgers -1 -109
Rays -1 +100
---------------
TT
_________________________________
Last edited by FUqer; 05-07-17 at 02:53 PM. Reason: Added Tigers/Athletics Over
Monday Plays 5/8
--> Indians +106
--> Marlins +121
--> Reds +138
--> Indians/Blue Jays Under 8.5 -110
--> Royals/Rays Under 8 -120
_________________________
Yesterday
MLB = 5-9 = -4.20
___________________________
MLB Season
ALL = 71-86 for -13.58
S/U = 45-59 for -12.30
O/U = 21-21 for -1.39
R/L = 5-6 for +0.11
---------------
Dogs = 24-28 for +1.38
Favs = 21-31 for -13.68
----------------
Over = 12-11 for +0.33
Under = 9-10 for -1.52
----------------
April = 42-55 for -12.69
May = 29-31 for -0.89
___________________________
ALL PICKS 5/8
SU = Yesterday 5-7 for -2.79 (Total 96-92 for -3.23)
OU = Yesterday 9-4 for +4.78 (Total 80-83 for -2.83)
RL = Yesterday 0-2 for -2.00 (Total 8-10 for -1.92)
TT = Yesterday 0-0 for +0.00 (Total 5-5 for -0.25)
----------------------------------
SU
Indians +106
Marlins +121
Reds +138
Rockies +120
Angels +110
Orioles -115
Rangers -120
Pirates +183
Giants +150
--------------
OU
Indians/Blue Jays Under 8.5 -110
Nationals/Orioles Over 9 -105
Cardinals/Marlins Over 8 +105
Yankees/Reds Over 9 +105
Royals/Rays Under 8 -120
Giants/Mets Over 7.5 -105
Cubs/Rockies Under 11 -115
Angels/Athletics Under 8 -110
Pirates/Dodgers Under 8 -110
Rangers/Padres Over 7.5 -115
---------------
RL
Rays -1.5 +145
---------------
TT
_________________________________
Last edited by FUqer; 05-08-17 at 06:04 PM.
Doing some betting on lines today with Giants, >30% Public and AD >+130. Will look at Pirates tonight also.
Well, I can't pick them worth shit so far, I've been a little better at picking all games, so for now, I'm going to decrease play % and increase plays, at least I will have plenty of action. Fade at will.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday Plays 5/9
LOSS - »-Nationals -148
WIN - »-Indians -162
WIN - »-Rangers -136
LOSS - »-Yankees -108
LOSS - »-Athletics -1.5 +150
WIN - »-Tigers -103
WIN - »-Twins -101
LOSS - »-Marlins -113
LOSS - »-Giants +105
WIN - »-Rockies +125 (#1)
LOSS - »-Phillies +101
WIN - »-Brewers +130
LOSS - »-Braves +173
LOSS - »-Pirates +172
WIN - »-Royals +147
WIN - »-Indians/Blue Jays Under 8 -110
LOSS - »-Pirates/Dodgers Over 7.5 +105
LOSS - »-Red Sox/Brewers Under 8.5 +105
LOSS - »-Rangers/Padres Under 8.5 -110
WIN - »-Mariners/Phillies Over 8 -110
LOSS - »-Twins/White Sox Under 8.5 -105
PUSH - »-Giants/Mets Under 7 -110
LOSS - »-Tigers/D-Backs Under 8.5 -105
WIN - »-Angels/Athletics Over 8.5 -110
WIN - »-Yankees/Reds Under 9 -105
WIN - »-Braves/Astros Over 8.5 -110
WIN - »-Royals/Rays Over 8 -115
WIN -»-Cardinals/Marlins Over 8 -115
LOSS - »-Nationals/Orioles Under 8.5 +100
WIN -»-Cubs/Rockies Under 11 -105 (#2)
_________________________
Yesterday
MLB = 2-5 = -3.20
___________________________
Season
ALL = 73-91 for -16.78
S/U = 46-63 for -15.30
O/U = 22-22 for -1.59
R/L = 5-6 for +0.11
---------------
Dogs = 24-32 for -2.62
Favs = 22-31 for -12.68
----------------
Over = 12-11 for +0.33
Under = 10-11 for -1.72
----------------
April = 42-55 for -12.69
May = 31-36 for -4.09
___________________________
Last edited by FUqer; 05-10-17 at 02:49 AM. Reason: results
Wednesday Plays 5/10
»-Cardinals -112
»-Athletics -122
»-Phillies +102
»-Red Sox +110
»-Tigers +111
»-Twins +118
»-Blue Jays +143
»-Braves +165
»-Royals +183
»-Mets -1 +105
»-Dodgers RL +100
»-Rangers RL +100
»-Nationals RL +120
»-Cubs RL +120
»-Braves/Astros Over 9 +100
»-Pirates/Dodgers Over 7.5 +100
»-Tigers/D-Backs Over 10 -105
»-Royals/Rays Over 8 -105
»-Cardinals/Marlins Over 8.5 -115
»-Mariners/Phillies Over 9 -115
»-Red Sox/Brewers Over 9 -120
»-Giants/Mets Under 8 +105
»-Twins/White Sox Under 8 +100
»-Padres/Rangers Under 8 -105
»-Indians/Blue Jays Under 8 -115
»-Angels/Athletics Under 8 -115
»-Nationals TT O4 +115
»-Cubs TT O6 +105
_________________________
Yesterday
MLB = 15-14 = +1.13
___________________________
MLB Season
ALL = 88-105 for -15.65
S/U = 53-70 for -14.97
O/U = 30-28 for +0.21
R/L = 5-7 for -0.89
---------------
Dogs = 27-36 for -2.60
Favs = 26-34 for -12.37
----------------
Over = 17-12 for +4.33
Under = 13-16 for -3.92
----------------
April = 42-55 for -12.69
May = 46-50 for -2.96
___________________________
Thursday Plays 5/11
»-Brewers +121
»-Royals +104
»-Astros +113
»-Orioles -100
»-Mariners +122
»-Rangers -133
»-White Sox -115
»-Rockies -109
»-Pirates +123
»-Tigers +110
»-Giants -120
»-Red Sox/Brewers Under 9 -105
»-Royals/Rays Under 7 +107
»-Astros/Yankees Over 7.5 -105
»-Orioles/Nationals Over 8.5 -105
»-Padres/Rangers Over 9.5 -110
»-Mariners/Blue Jays Over 9 +105
»-Twins/White Sox Under 8.5 -105
»-Dodgers/Rockies Under 10.5 -105
»-Pirates/D-Backs Under 8.5 -110
»-Tigers/Angels Under 7 +105
»-Reds/Giants Over 8 -115
_________________________
Yesterday
MLB = 11-15 = -3.62
___________________________
MLB Season
ALL = 99-120 for -19.27
S/U = 56-75 for -16.54
O/U = 37-34 for +1.16
R/L = 6-11 for -3.89
---------------
Dogs = 28-41 for -6.17
Favs = 28-34 for -10.37
----------------
Over = 22-16 for +5.38
Under = 15-18 for -4.07
----------------
April = 42-55 for -12.69
May = 57-65 for -6.58
___________________________
Brewers have a Triple-A lineup today, which is why Boston skyrocketed.
Thanks for the info. That's a problem when betting early. I would consider backing out of it, but I'm not risking a lot right now, just trying to find my strengths. Rodriguez looks good to get his 12th str8 Under on the Road though.
I know you play early, how do you usually deal with major lineup changes after a play?
I just let play ride, can't get too worked up about it when I have such heavy volume. BTW, Boston line has dropped back down a bit.
Friday Plays 5/12
»-White Sox -127 (1-6)
»-Cardinals -129 (5-2)
»-Blue Jays -125 (3-2)
»-Rangers -119 (3-6)
»-Braves +120 (0-3)
»-Twins +128 (3-3)
»-Pirates +129 (0-3)
»-Phillies +168 (2-3)
»-Royals -105 (4-6)
»-Cubs/Cardinals Over 8.5 +100 (22-18)
»-Reds/Giants Under 7 +113 (18-20)
»-Tigers/Angels Under 8 +105 (18-20)
»-Padres/White Sox Under 8 -105 (18-20)
»-Orioles/Royals Under 8 +100 (18-20)
_________________________
Yesterday
MLB = 6-9 = -3.26
___________________________
MLB Season
ALL = 105-129 for -22.53
S/U = 59-80 for -18.62
O/U = 40-38 for -0.02
R/L = 6-11 for -3.89
---------------
Dogs = 31-44 for -5.90
Favs = 28-36 for -12.72
----------------
Over = 22-18 for +3.18
Under = 18-20 for -3.05
----------------
April = 42-55 for -12.69
May = 63-74 for -9.84
___________________________
I had a quite a few plays canceled yesterday, obviously the Nationals game was ppd., and the had changes in Rockies and Rangers, which canceled, I would of went 2-2 anyway. I'm backing off from playing every game, we all knew it wasn't smart, but I was ready to try anything. There is just some games I have no clue either way, it was fun while it lasted.
The record in () after the team is my record with that team so far this season.
Last edited by FUqer; 05-12-17 at 11:08 AM. Reason: Added Royals SU and Under
Saturday Plays 5/13
»-Rockies +108 (4-2)
»-Orioles -105 (3-0)
»-Cubs/Cardinals Under 7.5 -110 (21-21)
»-Tigers/Angels Over 8.5 -105 (22-19)
_________________________
Yesterday = 8-5 = +3.05
_________________________
Season
ALL = 113-134 for -19.48
S/U = 64-83 for -16.70
O/U = 43-40 for +1.11
R/L = 6-11 for -3.89
---------------
Dogs = 33-45 for -5.42
Favs = 31-38 for -12.28
----------------
Over = 22-19 for +2.18
Under = 21-21 for -0.92
----------------
April = 42-55 for -12.69
May = 71-79 for -6.79
___________________________
The Pirates are in the same spot as the Braves was yesterday, but D-Backs aren't as cold as Marlins were, so I'm not sure yet. If the Rangers are dogs, then I may play Athletics, based on ROI similar to the Braves example and fading/playing certain streaks.
|
|
Lets see how this tracks today.
Cubs/Cardinals Under 7.5 (6.39)
Tigers/Angels Over 8.5 (9.78)
Phillies/Nationals Over 8.5 (9.78)
Padres/White Sox Over 9 (10.00)
Orioles/Royals Over 8.5 (9.27)
Mets/Brewers Over 9 (9.74)
Rays/Red Sox Under 7.5 (7.18)
Dodgers/Rockies Under 10.5 (10.20)
Braves/Marlins Under 8.5 (8.21)
Athletics/Rangers Over 10 (10.16)
___________________________________
And this is what I got for lines, pretty new model though with some major discrepancies in a couple games.
(Update: Found out where I made an error, not so off now.)
Rockies -122
Orioles -107
Athletics -102
Cubs -118
Angels -133
Marlins -122
Brewers -139
White Sox -117
Nationals -147
Red Sox -232
Last edited by FUqer; 05-13-17 at 01:29 PM. Reason: Fixed errors, off by 0.17
Additions
Can't resist price on Cubs now even though they are missing some guys, I'm hoping Lester's success vs Cardinals and Cardinals weakness vs lefties continues. Twins less than 30% public backing, at least +130 dog. Marlins 1-13 L14 vs Righties. Mets now without Familla. Rangers moved to favorites, so no play on A's. Still don't trust the Pirates.
Added Phillies
Saturday Plays 5/13
»-Rockies +108 (4-2)
»-Orioles -105 (3-0)
»-Cubs +111 (1-1)
»-Twins +143 (4-3)
»-Braves +114 (1-3)
»-Brewers -113 (4-2)
»-Phillies +160 (2-3)
»-Cubs/Cardinals Under 7.5 -110 (21-21)
»-Tigers/Angels Over 8.5 -105 (22-19)
__________________________________
Another <30% and >+130. I had this game yesterday, but it got canceled. Rangers are back as dogs also.
Sunday Plays 5/14
»-Astros +149 (1-2) GM #1
»-Yankees -117 (2-2) GM #2
»-Phillies +155 (2-4) GM #1
»-Rays +163 (0-1)
»-Mariners +130 (0-5)
»-Athletics +118 (2-1)
»-Braves +123 (2-3)
»-Brewers +135 (5-2)
»-Athletics/Rangers Under 9.5 -105 (9.43)
»-Padres/White Sox Under 9 -105 (7.80)
»-Phillies/Nationals Over 8.5 +100 GM #1 (8.52)
»-Astros/Yankees Under 8.5 +100 GM #1 (8.22)
»-Astros/Yankees Under 8 +100 GM #2 (7.70)
------------------------------
Yesterday
MLB = 3-6 = -2.63
___________________________
MLB Season
ALL = 116-140 for -22.11
S/U = 67-87 for -17.18
O/U = 43-42 for -1.04
R/L = 6-11 for -3.89
---------------
Dogs = 35-48 for -5.85
Favs = 32-39 for -12.33
----------------
Over = 22-20 for +1.13
Under = 21-22 for -2.02
----------------
April = 42-55 for -12.69
May = 74-85 for -9.42
___________________________
I'm a little late getting things out this morning, had a late night. I'll update my record and DOD shortly. I basically just tailed LT's O'U picks if I agreed with them. I know I got a lot of dogs today, but I have good reason for all of them.
Last edited by FUqer; 05-14-17 at 12:54 PM. Reason: records added
Monday Plays 5/15
»-Braves +125 (2-4)
»-Brewers +106 (6-2)
»-Indians -150 (2-2)
»-Astros/Marlins Under 9 -115 (7.71)
_________________________
Last edited by FUqer; 05-14-17 at 11:57 PM. Reason: Added Indians
Added two more totals.
Tuesday's Line Projections
WAS -131 at PIT +121 (Total = 7.88)
CHC -154 vs CIN +144 (Total = 7.14)
ARI -203 vs NYM +193 (Total = 7.80)
MIL -109 at SD -101 (Total = 8.87)
LAD -113 at SF +103 (Total = 8.26)
CLE -137 vs TB +127 (Total = 6.02)
BAL -117 at DET +107 (Total = 8.17)
NYY +100 at KC -110 (Total = 6.94)
CHW -102 at LAA -112 (Total = 8.16)
OAK +110 at SEA -120 (Total = 9.85)
TOR -168 vs ATL +158 (Total = 7.00)
HOU -127 at MIA +117 (Total = 6.55)
PHI +117 at TEX -127 (Total = 7.89)
COL +110 at MIN -120 (Total = 9.10)
BOS +100 at STL -110 (Total = 7.92)
Last edited by FUqer; 05-16-17 at 03:23 AM. Reason: highlighted - as expected way off on some of the higher lined games
Tuesday Plays 5/16
»-Yankees -110 (2-3)
»-Twins -110 (5-3)
»-Red Sox +105 (0-4)
»-Yankees/Royals Under 9.5 -110 (6.94)
»-Red Sox/Cardinals Under 8.5 -117 (7.92)
»-Athletics/Mariners Over 8 -107 (9.85)
_________________________
Yesterday = 4-1-1 = +3.30
___________________________
Wednesday's Projections
CHC -181 (64.4%) Total = (7.52)
CLE -160 (61.5%) Total = (8.65)
LAD -159 (61.4%) Total = (5.49)
HOU -150 (60.0%) Total = (9.73)
MIN -144 (59.1%) Total = (8.98)
LAA -143 (58.8%) Total = (7.69)
TEX -141 (58.5%) Total = (9.96)
DET -131 (56.7%) Total = (8.80)
ARI -130 (56.5%) Total = (10.25)
NYY -126 (55.7%) Total = (8.42)
SD -124 (55.3%) Total = (10.28)
ATL -121 (54.7%) Total = (10.22)
SEA -114 (53.2%) Total = (10.96)
BOS -107 (51.6%) Total = (6.95)
Added Brewers.
Wednesday Plays 5/17
»-Mets +112 (3-2)
»-Yankees/Royals Under 9 -110 (8.42)
»-White Sox/Angels Under 7.5 -105 (7.69) SDQL
»-Athletics/Mariners Over 8.5 -105 (10.96)
»-Brewers/Padres Over 7.5 +100 (10.28)
_________________________
Yesterday = 5-2 = +2.92
___________________________
»-Braves -112 (3-4)
»-Pirates -1 +108
»-Twins -1 +103
»-Cubs -1.5 +105
----------------------------------
Going with the Mets today as team on 6 game losing streaks as Road Dogs are +5.1% ROI and +35.6% ROI since 2015 and it's an angle that has been working for me. Harvey has had a week to refocus and has had success vs the D-Backs while Corbin has not been as good vs the Mets.
The other games I'm going with some value plays but I don't do many high favorites so I'm going -1 or -1.5, as I have Cubs and Pirates winning by more than 1.5 and Twins are very close. Wednesdays are also the 2nd best day for Home teams at +2.8% ROI, compared to yesterday's angle of fading home teams on Tuesday with a -10.4 ROI%.
I'm hoping the Braves stay hot and the wind blowing in should help Folty keep them in the ball park.
Gerrit Cole has finally started to look like himself the last few games and it appears the Nationals are starting a gas can, so Pirates may actually be able to get some runs.
Hopefully German Marquez last start was a fluke and he goes back to sucking, which would give the Twins a big advantage with Santana going.
The wind is crazy again in Chicago and I don't think it will be a one run game.
I'm again going with the Under in a game in Kansas City where a Lefty is pitching, doesn't help the wind is blowing out at 22 mph though.
I'm going against my model prediction in the White Sox/Angels game because one of the SDQL trends on my other thread. (287-196 +12.9% ROI)
The other two total plays are based on my model numbers and past performances.
------------------------------------------------
I may play the White Sox later tonight, I been wanting to all series, I know they are hurt, but the price just doesn't seem to match, I'm glad I held off so far, but tonight may be the night.
I like the Under in the Red Sox/Cardinals game until I seen the weather.
The Rangers are in a bad spot on a 7 game win streak as a Home Favorite, -6.2% ROI and -18.0% ROI since 2015, but I should of played the Phillies last night, the value is gone.
Assuming it the wind that bothering you for under in stl? If so I don't blame you it is really really windy here today. That 20 mph it shows doesn't even do it justice, I'm assuming the 20mph is what it doing constantly and gusting much harder than that at times!!
yea, windy as hell here too, and I wish I would of checked the Kansas City weather beforehand also.
Like cards now that they plus money as I think the wind blowing out hard a big advantage here with leake's ground ball inducing style vs porcello who has morphed into a fly ball pitcher since his transformation. Big disadvantage today for the fly ball pitcher!
Even with the wind I think you on right side with under in kc. Seems like another game where wind gives one team distinct advantage as Pineda has the sick k rate and also keeps ball on the ground while generally playing in kc helps Vargas who more a fly ball pitcher. I'm practically allergic to juice but Yankees are tempting. I will say what Vargas has done to reinvent himself this year incredibly impressive.
I do like the Under when a Lefty is pitching in KC and two are going tomorrow. I had 3 teams winning by more than 1.5 tonight, Yankees, Pirates and Cubs. Yanks 6-2 vs Lefties this season. I think Vargas and KC being a Lefty ballpark and the price getting away from me is why I didn't play it.
Thursday Projections
WAS -125 (55.6%) Total = (8.36)
CHC -194 (66.0%) Total = (10.39)
MIL -102 (50.5%) Total = (8.71)
MIA +147 (40.5%) Total = (8.09)
BAL -106 (51.6%) Total = (9.42)
KC -105 (51.4%) Total = (7.78)
OAK -103 (50.9%) Total = (9.76)
CHW +137 (42.1%) Total = (9.59)
COL -103 (50.7%) Total = (8.26)
ATL -105 (51.2%) Total = (8.06)
TEX -137 (57.8%) Total = (10.26)
Cardinals do good in the 2nd game of a series, better on the road, but good at Home after losing the 1st one since 2015. When I was more of a rookie my first two seasons in 2015 and 2016, I would play on that a lot alone. They helped me win over +20 units in 2015, beginner's luck, I guess.
Yea that line has shot way up.. hate when I'm slipping like that and don't get to the card night before for at least my 1st go thru
Pitching change for Padres from Cahill to Cosart, changed predicted line from MIL -102 to -111 and total from 8.71 to 9.07.
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