[larry040681]

Record 14-10 (+7.76 U )
5/28 : Pitt RL +145, BOL to ALL !!

* Pitchers up from minors in both WSox/Balt games, also for Boston, and for Detroit today ... any I'm missing?? Any prediction trends there?

my 2nd choice.. BOL

[2daBank]

It has nothing to do with the "due" fallacy and more to do with normal regression expected due to Paxson outperforming his peripherals to this point. The dude has a weak command ratio of 6.88 strikeouts vs. 3.52 walks per nine innings, he has benefited from a .252 BABIP and he has only a 4.22 FIP and 4.35 xFIP. His ZiPs has him going 5-6 with a 4.04 ERA the rest of the season.

i just dont expect the kind of regression out of him that his peripherals suggest, probably away more than home but in that park and when he gets teams that dont hit lefties as well i generally expect him to preform, as in give me a quality start at least. his walk rate is certainly a issue and has been throughout his career but again in such a pitcher friendly park it easier to compensate.

im not sure bout paxton as i am with a handful of pitchers where i think there a very specific reason they will continue to outperform their peripherals. in his case i tend to think the park and who he faces have a great deal more to do with it than the way he pitches. i do love identifying such pitchers as i believe it gives them added value, wacha being a great example and a guy ive said many times why he will outperform the advanced stats throughout the season. im certainly not ready to say any such thing with mr. paxton, he is much more a case by case basis for me. today id expect him to have a solid outing but again that at home against a team who's lineup i feel is much better suited to face rhp (although tribes numbers vs lefties arnt bad and they certainly better w gomes back)..

[2daBank]

I was so close to playing Rockies as my DoD yesterday instead pulled trigger on Dbacks and got railroaded by Cards.

I've been eyeballing the Clev/Sea under all week. I'm not going to let the movement to play mind games with me. I'm sticking to my guns so I'll gladly accept the movement in my favor.

i rarely let moves sway me, hell half my plays in here are against sizable moves. it certainly surprising to me we gonna be able to get un 7 at ev tho, and while normally im happy to get the extra perceived value in this case i cant help but realize we on the absolute square side of this one. not exactly something i get all that worried about but gotta admit every sucker in the world is prob in agreement here..

[SilverTongueFox]

i rarely let moves sway me, hell half my plays in here are against sizable moves. it certainly surprising to me we gonna be able to get un 7 at ev tho, and while normally im happy to get the extra perceived value in this case i cant help but realize we on the absolute square side of this one. not exactly something i get all that worried about but gotta admit every sucker in the world is prob in agreement here..

Sharp or Square? Lets just cash this beyotch!!!

[2daBank]

pads certainly becoming the most attractive option far as a doggie that fits our criteria.

i just cant bring myself to get behind the shelby miller bandwagon, obviously has cost me thus far but i still see a guy that throws mostly fbs and right or wrong a guy ive never thought of having the mental capability to pitch well when things are not going his way. his season thus far is highlighted by pitching against mostly light hitting cream puff lineups, fish 3x, phils 2x, cincy 2x, his only outing i felt was that impressive was at tor.

i just dont think this keeps up long term, id love for him to see a couple good hitting lineups and a ump that squeezes him a little bit. sf playing really good ball, he has yet to have a good outing there that i can recall (while heston been much better at home), and bravos just arnt hitting. i should have played sf early as now i dont feel there much of any value but i do think g-men continue their winning ways here..

[2buckluck]

my 2nd choice.. BOL

Ride the hot streaks, right (haha, amongst other indicators hopefully)? Cheers, BOL on SF as well!

[TheDoctorr]

anyone like the angels -1 RL +110?

[robbeduagain]

pads certainly becoming the most attractive option far as a doggie that fits our criteria.

i just cant bring myself to get behind the shelby miller bandwagon, obviously has cost me thus far but i still see a guy that throws mostly fbs and right or wrong a guy ive never thought of having the mental capability to pitch well when things are not going his way. his season thus far is highlighted by pitching against mostly light hitting cream puff lineups, fish 3x, phils 2x, cincy 2x, his only outing i felt was that impressive was at tor.

i just dont think this keeps up long term, id love for him to see a couple good hitting lineups and a ump that squeezes him a little bit. sf playing really good ball, he has yet to have a good outing there that i can recall (while heston been much better at home), and bravos just arnt hitting. i should have played sf early as now i dont feel there much of any value but i do think g-men continue their winning ways here..

As near as I can tell, Miller is 15-10 on the road in his career and 2-0 against Sf. While Heston has pitched better at home, his record doesn't show it as he is 1-2 and his last few outings haven't been anything to write home about. Anyway, that was my take on the game and why I took the Braves on the rrl. Good luck to everyone no matter what you choose.

[larry040681]

Ride the hot streaks, right (haha, amongst other indicators hopefully)? Cheers, BOL on SF as well!

you said it!

[SilverTongueFox]

i just dont expect the kind of regression out of him that his peripherals suggest, probably away more than home but in that park and when he gets teams that dont hit lefties as well i generally expect him to preform, as in give me a quality start at least. his walk rate is certainly a issue and has been throughout his career but again in such a pitcher friendly park it easier to compensate.

im not sure bout paxton as i am with a handful of pitchers where i think there a very specific reason they will continue to outperform their peripherals. in his case i tend to think the park and who he faces have a great deal more to do with it than the way he pitches. i do love identifying such pitchers as i believe it gives them added value, wacha being a great example and a guy ive said many times why he will outperform the advanced stats throughout the season. im certainly not ready to say any such thing with mr. paxton, he is much more a case by case basis for me. today id expect him to have a solid outing but again that at home against a team who's lineup i feel is much better suited to face rhp (although tribes numbers vs lefties arnt bad and they certainly better w gomes back)..

I'm not deep diving into stats on this one. For me it's much simpler.
1. Both teams last day off May 11th so 17 straight games.
2. Both teams going east to west.
3. Kluber has been getting back to strong form. Paxton has been really good at home. Even if we see some regression with Paxton, I agree with banker it's more likely to be road starts. Plus I think Kluber more than capable shutting down this line up if regression shows ugly face tonight. Easily see 2-1; 3-1 type game or even a Kluber shutout

BOL boyz

[2daBank]

As near as I can tell, Miller is 15-10 on the road in his career and 2-0 against Sf. While Heston has pitched better at home, his record doesn't show it as he is 1-2 and his last few outings haven't been anything to write home about. Anyway, that was my take on the game and why I took the Braves on the rrl. Good luck to everyone no matter what you choose.

almost positive his wins vs sf came at Busch. scratch that, he did get a W at AT&T in '13 but it was a gm he only lasted 5.1 innings and cards gave him 6 runs of support. records mean little to nothing to me as there so much circumstance behind them, i dont recall shelby being drastically different home/away in his time in stl so not suggesting that, just mentioning i dont recall him having success in this particular park (obviously 2 starts isnt enough to make much a case one way or the other). my biggest gripe w shelby is ive watched him a ton and while he has great life on his fb and has devoloped a effective cutter this is still a kid ive never seen learn any type of secondary pitch he can locate, no matter the quality of your heater it not easy to pitch to the era he currently has when big league hitters know they are gonna see several fb per ab. which i think speaks to the quality (or lack there of) of the lineups he has had the good fortune to face this season. ive been wrong plenty in my life tho, so if im wrong about this fukker it wont be the 1st and most def not the last.

far as heston goes he has had the misfortune of having several starts in coors where clearly he doesnt succeed (obviously he isnt the only one), and a place that is good for skewing a guys numbers. at home i see a guy that has had 3 quality starts and 1 bad outing on the season. he facing a lineup that isnt hitting particularly well and hasnt seen him. my biggest worry with him is he hasnt shown the ability to get out lhb at all and braves have several.

wish id have looked at this gm sooner but as is i dont think i can do anything but pass. there just not much sense imo to bet a line after a move like that where my win percentage would have to be a great deal higher to justify the play. maybe atl takes on some more money at some point and i can get sf around -125. w/o that happening it a pass for me and i hope im wrong.. gl

[red12sox]

Winner 8-8 +4.34

Oakland +111 just hate CC

[badgerguy]

05/28 Texas RL -1.5 +190 betonline


6-5 +2.97u ytd

[2daBank]

Originally Posted by AchillesTG
Everywhere I look, shows Sale/Wilson in the 1rst game. I hope so. I played CWS -1.5.

that what im seeing everywhere as well, cant disagree. not great spot for chisox but i mean it sale vs a minor league pitcher, and at pretty decent odds. think ill join you (which unfortunately means chisox win by 1, lol).

i almost feel responsible for this one buddy.. how any of you guys hit rls is beyond me?!?!??!!? never fails for me

[Buckandadime]

5/28
Atlanta +124

YTD
6-6
+.16

[Artieaa]

A gem by Archer then this punk screwed thing up!! smh

6-20 -12.62 YTD

Padres +116

GLTA!!!

[AchillesTG]

Originally Posted by AchillesTG
Everywhere I look, shows Sale/Wilson in the 1rst game. I hope so. I played CWS -1.5.




i almost feel responsible for this one buddy.. how any of you guys hit rls is beyond me?!?!??!!? never fails for me

9th inning BP's just drive me crazy!

[ctine2020]

DOD KC +134.

Hopefully the Royals can put the brakes on their current three game skid.

Royals burned me again.

YTD 6-2, +5.26u

No play today.

[mikey87]

Why the HELLLLLLL are the Rangers a dog today??? Seriously can someone let me know. Very Curious!

[robbeduagain]

almost positive his wins vs sf came at Busch.
scratch that, he did get a W at AT&T in '13 but it was a gm he only lasted 5.1 innings and cards gave him 6 runs of support. records mean little to nothing to me as there so much circumstance behind them, i dont recall shelby being drastically different home/away in his time in stl so not suggesting that, just mentioning i dont recall him having success in this particular park (obviously 2 starts isnt enough to make much a case one way or the other). my biggest gripe w shelby is ive watched him a ton and while he has great life on his fb and has devoloped a effective cutter this is still a kid ive never seen learn any type of secondary pitch he can locate, no matter the quality of your heater it not easy to pitch to the era he currently has when big league hitters know they are gonna see several fb per ab. which i think speaks to the quality (or lack there of) of the lineups he has had the good fortune to face this season. ive been wrong plenty in my life tho, so if im wrong about this fukker it wont be the 1st and most def not the last.

far as heston goes he has had the misfortune of having several starts in coors where clearly he doesnt succeed (obviously he isnt the only one), and a place that is good for skewing a guys numbers. at home i see a guy that has had 3 quality starts and 1 bad outing on the season. he facing a lineup that isnt hitting particularly well and hasnt seen him. my biggest worry with him is he hasnt shown the ability to get out lhb at all and braves have several.

wish id have looked at this gm sooner but as is i dont think i can do anything but pass. there just not much sense imo to bet a line after a move like that where my win percentage would have to be a great deal higher to justify the play. maybe atl takes on some more money at some point and i can get sf around -125. w/o that happening it a pass for me and i hope im wrong.. gl

Appreciate your input and see your points. You know this guy a lot better than me as you're a cards fan. This is why I love this thread. Civil conversation and good info. I'm going to agree to disagree on this one, if I'm wrong I'll know why. Thanks and good luck

[LT Profits]

Why the HELLLLLLL are the Rangers a dog today??? Seriously can someone let me know. Very Curious!

Rodriguez is probably a future stud, Martinez is probably the best candidate for regression in all of baseball. But I'd imagine the Boston money has more to do with the Rodriguez hype. I am on Boston myself at -108 for game and -110 5 innings.

[leetreaper]

Pads +117

[Smutbucket]

Detroit +115

[44 Mag]

Rodriguez is probably a future stud, Martinez is probably the best candidate for regression in all of baseball. But I'd imagine the Boston money has more to do with the Rodriguez hype. I am on Boston myself at -108 for game and -110 5 innings.

So are you being contradictory here??? You posted earlier you don't believe in the "due" theory, yet you think Martinez is due to regress??? He has looked pretty good. Is Kershaw "due" to progress??? LOL. Like he hasn't already.

[mojator]

win
ytd: 1-1 +0.45

5/27 kc +135

lost
ytd: 1-2 -.55

5/28 tex +114

[2daBank]

Appreciate your input and see your points. You know this guy a lot better than me as you're a cards fan. This is why I love this thread. Civil conversation and good info. I'm going to agree to disagree on this one, if I'm wrong I'll know why. Thanks and good luck

he has certainly changed since last pitching here. i really didnt see a ton of difference as he still doesnt have a off-speed pitch he can locate, he actually throwing the cb/change even less this yr. he has changed some tho, he has went from more than 60% of his pitches being 4 seamers to a steady mix of 4 and 2 seamers, prob more significant is his cutter which was prob a pitch he was taught here (kinda a staple of most cards pitchers) but never got it down. appears this yr he does as he throwing it a great deal more (something like 5% last year to around 20% now) and more effectively. the cutter is 7 mph less than the 4/2 seam which prob explains his ability to not have guys just sitting on the heater this yr. i really hadnt noticed this til talking about him with someone earlier. how much a difference and how much has to do with the lineups he has faced is impossible for me to say?? i do think realizing this makes me less quick to wanna fade him even if im still not a huge buyer.

[2daBank]

So are you being contradictory here??? You posted earlier you don't believe in the "due" theory, yet you think Martinez is due to regress??? He has looked pretty good. Is Kershaw "due" to progress??? LOL. Like he hasn't already.

ive never thought saying someone was "due to regress" and the due theory were the same, if that makes sense. lol... i think it does as "due to regress" is much more something said about guys that are vastly outperforming their peripherals, while "due theory" more times than not seems to be someone expecting different simply because most teams/players simply dont perform the same consistently. subtle differences maybe? beats me, lol. i take them different anyways.

in martinez case it is more drastic than most. his xfip and siera are that of a guy with a era closer to 5 than his current era of less than 2. i think there exceptions to every rule and ive never believed in treating anything as the be all end all but writing is on the wall with this guy in several ways.

[LT Profits]

So are you being contradictory here??? You posted earlier you don't believe in the "due" theory, yet you think Martinez is due to regress??? He has looked pretty good. Is Kershaw "due" to progress??? LOL. Like he hasn't already.

NO. Big difference between being "due" and expecting natural regression when outperforming your peripheral numbers, which is the case with both Martinez and Paxson tonight, ESPECIALLY Martinez.

[LT Profits]

ive never thought saying someone was "due to regress" and the due theory were the same, if that makes sense. lol... i think it does as "due to regress" is much more something said about guys that are vastly outperforming their peripherals, while "due theory" more times than not seems to be someone expecting different simply because most teams/players simply dont perform the same consistently. subtle differences maybe? beats me, lol. i take them different anyways.

Beat me to the punch.

[44 Mag]

ive never thought saying someone was "due to regress" and the due theory were the same, if that makes sense. lol... i think it does as "due to regress" is much more something said about guys that are vastly outperforming their peripherals, while "due theory" more times than not seems to be someone expecting different simply because most teams/players simply dont perform the same consistently. subtle differences maybe? beats me, lol. i take them different anyways.

in martinez case it is more drastic than most. his xfip and siera are that of a guy with a era closer to 5 than his current era of less than 2. i think there exceptions to every rule and ive never believed in treating anything as the be all end all but writing is on the wall with this guy in several ways.

NO. Big difference between being "due" and expecting natural regression when outperforming your peripheral numbers, which is the case with both Martinez and Paxson tonight, ESPECIALLY Martinez.

Well, I am happy to see you are both against me here. I didn't know I was up against a "duet" . BOL to you both, but your theories don't make any sense to me at this time. What's next, Bucholtz starts throwing no hitters??? Kershaw is done???? Kluber wins the Cy Young??? LOL.

[2daBank]

Well, I am happy to see you are both against me here. I didn't know I was up against a "duet" . BOL to you both, but your theories don't make any sense to me at this time. What's next, Bucholtz starts throwing no hitters??? Kershaw is done???? Kluber wins the Cy Young??? LOL.

lol. only in terminology my friend (sounds as if my feelings about tex starter may differ as well). like most gms today i didnt pay attention till after the line move so im not on either side. i kinda like the over 5 ff. maybe ov 9 for gm if i can get it w/o any juice. i honestly dont trust 1st time pitchers real often anyways. rangers been raking lhp so i figure between both these pitchers at least 1 outta get hit..gl buddy

really a shame i had so much time today and this the card we have to work with, sea was closest thing to a doggie i liked but dont love them and they dropped out of range for our purposes.. seems like they begging for us to bet pads at this point and cant decide if i wanna be talked into it? looks like mostly favs i missed the price on and totals i feel ok bout. lol..

[Holdin Aces]

Not sure of my record, got tired of digging.

Today's pick - Braves +121

[LT Profits]

Well, I am happy to see you are both against me here. I didn't know I was up against a "duet" . BOL to you both, but your theories don't make any sense to me at this time. What's next, Bucholtz starts throwing no hitters??? Kershaw is done???? Kluber wins the Cy Young??? LOL.

You seem to still be misinterpretting what I am trying to say so hopefully this response I posted in another thread will clear things up:

Not "due", it is natural regression expected. BIG Difference.

"Due" means a pitcher has been pitching very well and now may be the chance to throw in an inevitable stinker. I do NOT believe in the "Due Theory" because of a pitcher has strong peripherals, there is no reason to suddenly expect a bad outing this time.

Natural regression is a pitcher that has been pitching well but has been outperforming his peripheral stats, as generally speaking, mainstream numbers will converge to peripherals. THAT is the case with Martinez, who has awful peripherals.

[mrginandtonic]

missed out on the day games.....

5/27

can lester out duel mad max??......

Chi @ +114

ytd 17-21 @ +3.30

5/28

atl @ +121

ytd 17-22 +2.30

[44 Mag]

Not sure of my record, got tired of digging.

Today's pick - Braves +121

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