Originally Posted by iloseagain
oh ok. Cool... thx
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05-01-14 11:58 PM #1366
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05-02-14 12:14 AM #1367
just my luck Archer gives up a 2 out hit in the bottom of the 5th while up 2-1 Originally Posted by Big Bear
and then Rays come back to win the game.
So frustrating
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05-02-14 12:34 AM #1368
i took rays FF as well, if thats what youre talking about.. frustrating. Originally Posted by Big Bear
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05-02-14 05:32 AM #1369
Thursday 5.1.2014 final card
1* Dodgers/Twins over 8' (-105) - WINNER
1* Braves ML (-124) - LOSER
1* Brewers ML (+107) - LOSER
1* Mets/Rockies over 9 (-125) - WINNER
2-2 -0.24u
73-54-8 +20.59u MLB to date
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05-02-14 05:32 AM #1370
Originally Posted by brucethebear
You know, it is nice to get the "down to one out" 3 run blast go your way occasionally.
Yes, feeling veeeeerry fortunate to have won that one and escape with just a slight negative day. Originally Posted by iloseagain
oh its very nice
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05-02-14 05:54 AM #1371
Hmmm.... lots of over wind today
Weather Dashboard
for Fri, May 02Click on any game heading to see the underlying forecast details at weather.com.
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs – 1:20 PM CDT - Wrigley Field Wind:
From WSW
13 mph
Time: 10 am 11 am 12 pm 1 pm 2 pm 3 pm 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm Temp: 49°F 50°F 52°F 53°F 54°F 55°F 56°F 56°F 55°F Humidity: 71% 68% 64% 61% 59% 57% 55% 55% 59% Feels like: 45°F 46°F 48°F 49°F 50°F 51°F 52°F 53°F 52°F Condition: Cloudy Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy Precip%: 0% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 20% Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians – 7:05 PM EDT - Progressive Field Wind:
From SW
8 mph
Time: 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am Temp: 52°F 53°F 53°F 53°F 53°F 52°F 52°F 51°F 50°F Humidity: 66% 64% 66% 69% 69% 69% 69% 69% 71% Feels like: 49°F 50°F 50°F 50°F 50°F 49°F 49°F 48°F 47°F Condition: Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Precip%: 10% 10% 10% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees – 7:05 PM EDT - Yankee Stadium Wind:
From WSW
11 mph
Time: 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am Temp: 67°F 67°F 66°F 64°F 62°F 60°F 59°F 58°F 57°F Humidity: 39% 39% 40% 43% 46% 49% 51% 53% 55% Feels like: 67°F 67°F 66°F 64°F 62°F 58°F 58°F 57°F 56°F Condition: Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Precip%: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies – 7:05 PM EDT - Citizens Bank Park Wind:
From WSW
7 mphTime: 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am Temp: 67°F 67°F 66°F 65°F 64°F 62°F 60°F 58°F 56°F Humidity: 39% 39% 40% 43% 46% 52% 58% 62% 67% Feels like: 67°F 67°F 66°F 65°F 64°F 62°F 60°F 58°F 56°F Condition: Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Precip%: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates – 7:05 PM EDT - PNC Park Wind:
From SW
7 mph
Time: 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am Temp: 58°F 58°F 58°F 57°F 56°F 55°F 53°F 52°F 51°F Humidity: 49% 49% 51% 53% 57% 59% 64% 66% 69% Feels like: 55°F 55°F 56°F 55°F 54°F 54°F 51°F 51°F 49°F Condition: Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Precip%: 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 10% Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox – 7:10 PM EDT - Fenway Park Wind:
From WSW
9 mph
Time: 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am Temp: 65°F 64°F 62°F 59°F 57°F 55°F 55°F 54°F 53°F Humidity: 41% 45% 50% 57% 62% 66% 64% 64% 64% Feels like: 65°F 64°F 62°F 57°F 55°F 53°F 53°F 52°F 51°F Condition: Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Precip%: 0% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds – 7:10 PM EDT - Great American Ball Park Wind:
From SW
8 mphTime: 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am Temp: 60°F 60°F 59°F 58°F 57°F 55°F 54°F 52°F 50°F Humidity: 49% 49% 51% 55% 57% 62% 66% 71% 77% Feels like: 58°F 58°F 57°F 56°F 55°F 53°F 52°F 50°F 48°F Condition: Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Precip%: 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins – 7:10 PM EDT - Marlins Park (Note: retractable roof may neutralize some weather conditions.) Wind:
From S
10 mph
Time: 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am Temp: 86°F 85°F 84°F 82°F 81°F 80°F 80°F 80°F 79°F Humidity: 57% 59% 60% 67% 69% 71% 74% 74% 76% Feels like: 90°F 89°F 88°F 86°F 84°F 83°F 83°F 83°F 82°F Condition: Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Clear Clear Clear Precip%: 0% 0% 10% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves – 7:35 PM EDT - Turner Field Wind:
From WNW
5 mph
Time: 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am Temp: 70°F 70°F 69°F 68°F 66°F 64°F 62°F 61°F 60°F Humidity: 35% 36% 39% 40% 45% 48% 54% 56% 58% Feels like: 70°F 70°F 69°F 68°F 66°F 64°F 62°F 61°F 60°F Condition: Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Precip%: 0% 0% 0% 10% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals – 7:10 PM CDT - Kauffman Stadium Wind:
From SW
9 mph
Time: 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am Temp: 66°F 67°F 67°F 66°F 64°F 61°F 59°F 57°F 57°F Humidity: 33% 33% 33% 36% 38% 41% 42% 45% 45% Feels like: 66°F 67°F 67°F 66°F 64°F 61°F 58°F 55°F 56°F Condition: Mostly Sunny Mostly Sunny Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Precip%: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins – 7:10 PM CDT - Target Field Wind:
From WNW
14 mph
Time: 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am Temp: 57°F 56°F 55°F 54°F 53°F 51°F 50°F 48°F 47°F Humidity: 59% 62% 62% 61% 64% 69% 71% 77% 80% Feels like: 53°F 52°F 51°F 50°F 49°F 47°F 46°F 44°F 43°F Condition: Few Showers Few Showers Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Precip%: 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros – 7:10 PM CDT - Minute Maid Park (Note: retractable roof may neutralize some weather conditions.) Wind:
From SSW
7 mphTime: 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am Temp: 79°F 79°F 79°F 78°F 75°F 72°F 69°F 67°F 66°F Humidity: 29% 30% 31% 32% 36% 38% 42% 47% 52% Feels like: 78°F 78°F 78°F 77°F 75°F 72°F 69°F 67°F 66°F Condition: Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Clear Clear Clear Clear Precip%: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% New York Mets at Colorado Rockies – 6:40 PM MDT - Coors Field Wind:
From WNW
12 mph
Time: 3 pm 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm Temp: 75°F 75°F 74°F 72°F 70°F 67°F 64°F 61°F 58°F Humidity: 25% 25% 25% 26% 28% 31% 34% 36% 39% Feels like: 75°F 75°F 74°F 72°F 70°F 67°F 64°F 61°F 56°F Condition: Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Mostly Sunny Mostly Sunny Mostly Sunny Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Precip%: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels – 7:05 PM PDT - Angel Stadium Wind:
From WSW
6 mphTime: 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am Temp: 93°F 91°F 88°F 83°F 79°F 76°F 73°F 71°F 69°F Humidity: 21% 23% 23% 25% 28% 32% 38% 42% 45% Feels like: 90°F 88°F 85°F 81°F 78°F 76°F 73°F 71°F 69°F Condition: Sunny Sunny Sunny Sunny Clear Clear Clear Clear Clear Precip%: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres – 10:10 PM EDT - Petco Park Wind:
From SSW
2 mphTime: 7 pm 8 pm 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 am 1 am 2 am 3 am Temp: 75°F 73°F 72°F 71°F 70°F 69°F 67°F 66°F 65°F Humidity: 41% 44% 47% 49% 53% 55% 56% 54% 50% Feels like: 75°F 73°F 72°F 71°F 70°F 69°F 67°F 66°F 65°F Condition: Sunny Clear Clear Clear Clear Clear Clear Clear Clear Precip%: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
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05-02-14 07:16 AM #1372
Thanks, Biff. I see the only two totals not posted yet are the Chubs and the Yanks. Make sure you jump on them as soon as they come out, because I'm sure they'll go up. Good luck, today!
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05-02-14 07:34 AM #1373
why are the cubs games last to post odds?
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05-02-14 08:05 AM #1374
Hey Biff, been tailing for a while, keep up the great work! I did have a question for you though:
How exactly do you account for weather, wind specifically. For instance, a 10mph wind to straight center would account for how many more runs than no wind (in a standard ballpark)?
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05-02-14 08:16 AM #1375
I can't speak for Biff since he probably knows this stuff better than I do. A 15mph wind blowing center field can carry an extra ~40-50 feet from a ball hit 400 feet on a calm day. But the thing about weather is that it is no secret, and books study it just as much as anyone else does. And line shifts according to it.
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05-02-14 08:38 AM #1376
Yes biff does a great job and knows his stuff.! Everyone capps to his own way, but from my experiences wind blowing in/out @15 mph or less has very little effect on a total.....unless it's Wrigley field, a day game @ Chavez, or it's hot & humid on the" south side"...............gl to all Originally Posted by actafoolzz
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05-02-14 08:59 AM #1377
Thanks, pal. I actually am not that into either of those totals today, but you are right, if you want to play them, be ready for the open as they will move. BOL today. Originally Posted by inZane
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05-02-14 09:02 AM #1378
Friday 5.2.2014
1* Orioles/Twins over 8' (-115)
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05-02-14 09:08 AM #1379
Booked O's/Twins over now even though i don't know ump as i think that it will rise and model likes it a lot. Of the 13 umps who are out there for tonight, only three are under umps (Cooper, Carapazza, Kellogg). Cooper just worked Rats/O's series, so he won't follow O's to Minnesota, and Carapazza has been on a bit of an over streak (11-3 over his last 14 games), so i'm really only worried about Kellogg. Even if i plug in Kellogg, model still has 8.9 runs here. With neutral ump, i get over 9.5 and with over ump it only gets better obviously, so that's why i'm pulling trigger now notwithstanding fact that i don't know ump (don't normally play totals without knowing ump).
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05-02-14 09:09 AM #1380
Because the weather/wind at Wrigley is so unpredictable and has such a significant impact. Wind makes all the difference there, so books generally don't open totals until about three hours before first pitch for games at Wrigley (same with runlines). Originally Posted by Fabiodog
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05-02-14 09:20 AM #1381
Thank you. Every factor that i use (park factor, ump factor, weather factor) is an overlay in the model that equates to a percentage. So, if I have 7 runs for a game, and an ump with an ump factor of 1.05, that changes projection to 7.35 (adds 5%). I don't really assign value to anything unless i think that it's worth at least 3% plus/minus, as in my experience, adjusting total by 1-2% doesn't change it much. Model calculates sides and totals separately - attempts to project score differential of game, then adds both together for total. Total overlays then go on top of that. Originally Posted by RackBall
For wind alone (i.e., not accounting for temp/humidity), at lower levels, i generally equate each mph on the wind to 1/4%, so 1% for each 4 mph. However, once it gets to around 15 mph plus, i think that it matters more and it's probably more like 1% for each 2-3 mph. 30 mph wind for me is 10% adjustment. Thumbnail sketch, i'm probably at about 2.5% for 10 mph, 4% for 15 mph, 5-6% for 20 mph, 7-8% for 25 mph, 10% for 30 mph. Bottom-line, it's not a number-of-runs adjustment, but rather a percentage overlay on the number of runs that i projected in a vacuum.
However, two important things to remember: (1) this assumes that wind is straight in or straight out, which is not always the case (and directional wind plays differently at different parks), and (2) wind can often changes over the course of a game.
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05-02-14 09:25 AM #1382
Agree re: extra carry. I'm not so sure that books adjust much for wind, at least not at open (open is all about ERA, one of the dumbest stats in sports, which is why there is value in MLB totals - past performance =/= future results). When lines open 24 hours before a given game, it's difficult to know in places like Chicago, Cleveland, San Fran, Detroit, etc. exactly what the weather will be doing the following night. I think that the books adjust to the weather report gradually because i think that the market adjusts to it, but i think that it would be dangerous for them to make significant adjustments based upon weather that long before first pitch (which is precisely why Wrigley totals open so late). Originally Posted by actafoolzz
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05-02-14 09:27 AM #1383
I would generally agree. At less than 15 mph, it's probably a 2-3% adjustment, 4% max, and a totals doesn't become a good/bad play based upon 2-3% adjustment. Now, add three of such adjustments together for 6-9% cumulative adjustment and it could become significant. Originally Posted by CappinTerp
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05-02-14 09:31 AM #1384
Hey Biff, what about umps -- do the books adjust their totals depending on who's behind the plate? Originally Posted by BiffTFinancial
Great work you do, thanks!
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05-02-14 09:35 AM #1385
@Biff thanks man that was very helpful! I've been working on an over/under model and wasn't confident in how I was factoring in wind
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05-02-14 09:45 AM #1386
Interesting that the total for the Cubs opened at 9, and dropped to 8', even with a good wind out to center. Wainwright is 9-2 his last 11 here. The under is 5-2 the last 7 here, but that wind made my mind up. I took the Cards on the run line,-1' (-105) and the over. I'm thinking it'll probably go back up to 9 by game time. BOL to all...
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05-02-14 10:05 AM #1387
I honestly wonder about that. I would say probably, at least for the outlier types like Tim McClelland. I have seen totals move around the time that ump announcements are made for certain guys, but who moves that line - the books or people betting based upon that announcement? No way to know. Originally Posted by Down_Goes Bookie
Hey Biff, what about umps -- do the books adjust their totals depending on who's behind the plate?
Great work you do, thanks!
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05-02-14 10:07 AM #1388
You're quite welcome. I don't recall the source, but I read the 1/4% per mph rule somewhere years ago, and the manner in which I use it has worked reasonably well for me. Originally Posted by RackBall
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05-02-14 10:08 AM #1389
I lean under here, not by a ton, but passing on that game. Originally Posted by inZane
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05-02-14 10:41 AM #1390
I feel like any game at wrigley, where the wind is blowing out, and the total drops, is almost a guarantee to go under Originally Posted by inZane
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05-02-14 10:47 AM #1391
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05-02-14 11:28 AM #1392
Originally Posted by BiffTFinancial
Now sitting at -125 OVER 8 1/2...ugh
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05-02-14 11:48 AM #1393
this total worries me that its ONLY 8.5 haha.. with these two scrubs goin it should be 9.5 at least! Originally Posted by AndrewMcCutchen
Edit: AND the wind is blowing out to left center at 14 MPH?? this looks too good to be true.. looks like free money to me haha.. im all over it!
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05-02-14 12:01 PM #1394
adding
1* A's team total over 4.5 (-105)
Friday 5.2.2014 updated card
1* A's TT over 4' (-105)
1* Orioles/Twins over 8' (-115)
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05-02-14 01:10 PM #1395
Biff, a stadium-specific weather analyzer to check out.
http://www.baseball-weather.com/index.htmlNomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: upscope
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05-02-14 02:47 PM #1396
Thank you! Originally Posted by whtsox13
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05-02-14 03:56 PM #1397
Leans still considering (waiting for umps, lineups and such)
Nats
Nats/Phils over 6'
Marlins
Dodgers/Marlins over 7'
Brewers
Brewers/Reds under 7'
Rangers
Dbacks/Padres under 7
Mariners + Padres ML parlay
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05-02-14 04:44 PM #1398
Quick question.. just curious why the umps matter? Originally Posted by BiffTFinancial
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05-02-14 05:17 PM #1399
adding
1* Brewers ML (+108)
Friday 5.2.2014 updated card
1* Brewers ML (+108)
1* A's TT over 4' (-105)
1* Orioles/Twins over 8' (-115)
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05-02-14 05:17 PM #1400
Different umps have different strike zones. Doesn't necessarily matter for every play, but important, particularly for totals. Originally Posted by Nick Nacho
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