Just stirring the statistics pot. Those games are over so its irrelevant. DET -1 was my spot play, not chasing.Originally Posted by skyscrapers
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06-27-13 11:30 AM #1296
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06-27-13 03:27 PM #1297
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06-27-13 03:35 PM #1298
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06-27-13 06:20 PM #1299
Originally Posted by whtsox13
Those games are very Relevant. Just about Each game we've played on the the Angels where they are a heavy favorite they lose. And when playing against them with a heavy favourite we also lose.
It means a few things. 1- value is not to be found on the heavy favorite here. Infact, think about how much money would have been won if it were vice versa. One thing is for sure, I'll pick the side that has +150 on a game between these two because the lines aren't accurate and are being fueled by ...who knows what.
2- Strip LAA from the chase model. Personal move here.
I had DET -1 . I figure if they win, they'll win by two runs. I was wrong, but didn't wanna lay the heavy juice on a fake favourite.
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06-28-13 03:01 AM #1300
Originally Posted by Stifler
records:
S1: W 25 | L 0 (+25,00 units)
S2: W 21 | L 3 (-12,001 units)
S3: W 125 | L 4 (+3,898 units)
P1: W 14 | L 1 (+5,971 units)
P2: W 20 | L 1 (+7,676 units)
P3: W 31 | L 0 (+31,00 units)
pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, D Bet on next start
- P2 CJ Wilson fade, D Bet on next start
- P3 Z.Greinke fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P1 B.Norris fade, B Bet on next start
- P2 B.Norris fade, B Bet on next start
- P1 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez fade, B Bet on next start @home
- S3 LAA fade, D Bet on 28.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-28-13 04:37 AM #1301
28.06.2013
S1
(A Bet) Col fade: San Francisco 2,36 0,735u
S2
(A Bet) Ari fade: Atlanta 1,699 1,43u
S3
(D Bet) LAA fade: Det 1,704 1,42u | Det 1,704 3,438u | Det 1,725 8,08u | Houston - waiting on lm
(A Bet) Tex: Texas 1,962 1,04u
(A Bet) Pit: Pittsburgh 1,595 1,68u
P1
(B Bet) B.Norris fade: Cubs -1,5 2,54 0,649u | LA Angels -1,5 2,23 1,341u
P2
(B Bet) B.Norris fade: Cubs 1,662 1,51u | LA Angels 1,787 3,189u
potential plays:
- S3 NYY fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 SD fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 Det fade, if line +100 or more
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
BOA12 gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
shysta gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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06-28-13 09:29 AM #1302
- Houston line added.
28.06.2013
S1
(A Bet) Col fade: San Francisco 2,36 0,735u
S2
(A Bet) Ari fade: Atlanta 1,699 1,43u
S3
(D Bet) LAA fade: Det 1,704 1,42u | Det 1,704 3,438u | Det 1,725 8,08u | Houston 2,20 11,615u
(A Bet) Tex: Texas 1,962 1,04u
(A Bet) Pit: Pittsburgh 1,595 1,68u
P1
(B Bet) B.Norris fade: Cubs -1,5 2,54 0,649u | LA Angels -1,5 2,23 1,341u
P2
(B Bet) B.Norris fade: Cubs 1,662 1,51u | LA Angels 1,787 3,189u
potential plays:
- S3 NYY fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 SD fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 Det fade, if line +100 or more
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-28-13 11:27 AM #1303
HI STIFFLER
I'm a newbie around here and I usually gamble on Hockey and Football and hardly ever on baseball.
To fill in some summer hours and have some fun, I am looking to 'tail someone [some people ]on Baseball. Your selectins look pretty good , regular and consistent. So I'm going to tail you.
However looking at your historical records, wouldn't one be best off just playing the S3 system and using an appropriate unit value, rather than spreading one's time and money over 6 systems? Or am I missing soething?
[ And I like system s3 as its easier to implement].
Tx for doing this
barryt
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06-28-13 01:46 PM #1304
You are missing this: Historical record: S-1 +207 units, S-2 +177 units. P-1 +161 units, P-2 +242 units, P-3 +200 units. Total of +987 units. Originally Posted by barryt
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06-28-13 02:17 PM #1305
barryt - this is a quantity system and not a quality system. Like a casino - more games means more $$
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06-28-13 05:18 PM #1306
- S3 NYY fade & SD fade series added.
28.06.2013
S1
(A Bet) Col fade: San Francisco 2,36 0,735u
S2
(A Bet) Ari fade: Atlanta 1,699 1,43u
S3
(D Bet) LAA fade: Det 1,704 1,42u | Det 1,704 3,438u | Det 1,725 8,08u | Houston 2,20 11,615u
(A Bet) Tex: Texas 1,962 1,04u
(A Bet) Pit: Pittsburgh 1,595 1,68u
(A Bet) NYY fade: Baltimore 1,917 1,09u
(A Bet) SD fade: Miami 1,82 1,22u
P1
(B Bet) B.Norris fade: Cubs -1,5 2,54 0,649u | LA Angels -1,5 2,23 1,341u
P2
(B Bet) B.Norris fade: Cubs 1,662 1,51u | LA Angels 1,787 3,189u
potential plays:
- S3 Det fade, if line +100 or more
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-29-13 03:10 AM #1307
Otherwise a successful day. I didn't betHouston ..just 2 units
Laa should be revoked from the system .. Not because of the superstition
But because they prove ti be too chaotic, they will lose 4 games straight ez. I'll write more about it later but stiff please consider they have proven to have fallen our of the system
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06-29-13 05:05 AM #1308
S3 LAA fade series lost = -24,553 units Originally Posted by Stifler
records:
S1: W 25 | L 0 (+25,00 units)
S2: W 22 | L 3 (-11,001 units)
S3: W 128 | L 5 (-17,655 units)
P1: W 15 | L 1 (+6,971 units)
P2: W 21 | L 1 (+8,676 units)
P3: W 31 | L 0 (+31,00 units)
pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, D Bet on next start
- P2 CJ Wilson fade, D Bet on next start
- P3 Z.Greinke fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P1 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez fade, B Bet on next start @home
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 29.06.2013
- S3 SD fade , B Bet on 29.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-29-13 05:07 AM #1309
everyone can consider skipping those LAA series, so do i when it comes up to their next series. I probably will still post the series, maybe with a small note on how this team is the only one doing damage to the system so far. Originally Posted by illisdre
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06-29-13 05:37 AM #1310
29.06.2013
S1
(B Bet) Col fade: San Francisco 2,36 0,735u | San Francisco - waiting on line movement
S2
(A Bet) KC fade: Minnesota 1,87 1,15u
S3
(B Bet) SD fade: Miami 1,82 1,22u | Miami - waiting on line movement
P1
(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland -1,5 2,46 0,685u
P2
(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland 1,909 1,10u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-29-13 10:34 AM #1311
- SF & Miami line added.
29.06.2013
S1
(B Bet) Col fade: San Francisco 2,36 0,735u | San Francisco 1,962 1,804u
S2
(A Bet) KC fade: Minnesota 1,87 1,15u
S3
(B Bet) SD fade: Miami 1,82 1,22u | Miami 2,06 2,094u
P1
(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland -1,5 2,46 0,685u
P2
(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland 1,909 1,10u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
Grinder12000 gave Stifler 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
doin gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
olmec gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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06-29-13 10:51 AM #1312
Why would anyone even consider skipping LAA!! There are better series to skip if if people are stressed. LAA was an anomaly!!
BTW - Toronto is a nice play in my chase at +135 - people are so fixated on the Sox winning 4 in a row they forget Toronto has won 10 of the last 15 but lost 2 in a row.
OH - I see - the LAA fade. sorry - didn't play that one! I understand now! My bad.
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06-30-13 04:01 AM #1313
to keep the losses small, it makes sense to play each bet with minimum -110 without / with runline. most wins, just by favos, end up with space 2 or more runs. have you checked higher odds for all systems? Originally Posted by Stifler
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06-30-13 04:04 AM #1314
if im reading that right you going to a c bet on sf today? based of fading rox? man that can be rough when you get a team come in that on a serious cold streak, i hope rox play someone better for yo next gm cause i think there a good shot yo going d there..
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06-30-13 06:07 AM #1315
records: Originally Posted by Stifler
S1: W 25 | L 0 (+25,00 units)
S2: W 23 | L 3 (-10,001 units)
S3: W 129 | L 5 (-16,655 units)
P1: W 15 | L 1 (+6,971 units)
P2: W 22 | L 1 (+9,676 units)
P3: W 31 | L 0 (+31,00 units)
pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, D Bet on next start
- P2 CJ Wilson fade, D Bet on next start
- P3 Z.Greinke fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P1 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, B Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez fade, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 U.Jimenez, B Bet on next start
- S1 Col fade, C Bet on 30.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-30-13 07:03 AM #1316
30.06.2013
S1
(C Bet) Col fade: SF 2,36 0,735u | SF 1,962 1,804u | San Francisco 1,893 3,963u
P1
(B Bet) M.Buerhle: Toronto 2,20 0,833u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
P2
(D Bet) CJ Wilson fade: NYY 2,30 0,769u | Sea 3,08 0,851u | Det 1,704 3,722u| Houston 2,67 3,798u
(B Bet) M.Buerhle: Toronto 2,20 0,833u| Toronto - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) CJ Wilson: LA Angels 1,549 1,821u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
GeorgeLynch gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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06-30-13 08:53 AM #1317
- Toronto line added.
30.06.2013
S1
(C Bet) Col fade: SF 2,36 0,735u | SF 1,962 1,804u | San Francisco 1,893 3,963u
P1
(B Bet) M.Buerhle: Toronto 2,20 0,833u | Toronto 2,27 1,443u
P2
(D Bet) CJ Wilson fade: NYY 2,30 0,769u | Sea 3,08 0,851u | Det 1,704 3,722u| Houston 2,67 3,798u
(B Bet) M.Buerhle: Toronto 2,20 0,833u| Toronto 2,27 1,443u
(A Bet) CJ Wilson: LA Angels 1,549 1,821u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
illisdre gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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06-30-13 09:33 AM #1318
Yes I see that. Originally Posted by TidesRoln
Looking at just the S series, the sum of S1 and S2 is +385 units and S3 on its own is +969.
Is it too simple to say due to S3 being much more efficient than the other 2, with your starting BR of ,say, 100 units, instead of betting to make 1 unit on each of S1,S2,S3 bet the equivalent of 3 units on S3 for a historical profit 969*3=2907 ?
I'm not being 'smart', I just think it would be better, but is there a catch I'm not seeing?. tx
barryt
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06-30-13 10:47 AM #1319
Hi. I have a question: Did we skip fade LAA in the S1...why aren't they a play there? They lost 4 in a row on the road, streak over, skip 2....looks like it should be a "D" bet today. I looked back and saw something about skipping LAA but wasn't clear because also saw you may put it up with asterisk. Please advise. Sorry if this issue was already addressed (I look back but didn't see anything about it)
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06-30-13 12:09 PM #1320
Why is anyone following this road to ruin?
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06-30-13 04:21 PM #1321
Great system but fukk LA Angels
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06-30-13 04:49 PM #1322
LAA isnt even part of S1. They are just part of S2, but only for winning streaks. Originally Posted by Mr. Green
S3 has the most games, thats why...Why not playing every system for like 20 units each. That will turn a profit over 20.000 units. I will tell u why. Those are just historical stats and dont guarantee future winnings. Thats why i dont look at those historical unit winnings when it comes to a live season. Im not setting my personal goal for the whole system @ +300 units, which would be a realistic goal by just looking @ historical S1-S3 and P1-P3 stats. Its hard enough to win in sports betting. Thats what matters the most. Every season above +100 units is a monster season, everyone should keep that in mind.Looking at just the S series, the sum of S1 and S2 is +385 units and S3 on its own is +969.
Is it too simple to say due to S3 being much more efficient than the other 2, with your starting BR of ,say, 100 units, instead of betting to make 1 unit on each of S1,S2,S3 bet the equivalent of 3 units on S3 for a historical profit 969*3=2907 ?
I'm not being 'smart', I just think it would be better, but is there a catch I'm not seeing?. tx
barryt
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07-01-13 12:28 AM #1323
if you have enough money and time i would say NO. but it could give a bad season without profits, don't think this will crash if you bet all three S systems together. it only makes much work each day. Originally Posted by barryt
@ stifler, could you please post an example sheet to sort out the games self each day?
btw, have you checked your systems with higher odds of minimum -110?Last edited by Kevin Garnett; 07-01-13 at 12:41 AM.
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07-01-13 02:35 AM #1324
1. rules are listed, teams are listed. Go to covers and the daily scoreboard and look at any team individually. If ur doing this daily u already know which team fits for every S1-S3 system. Thats it, simple as. the important thing is to understand the rules ofc. After that im watching at the daily pitchers and look who is listed under P1-P3 and look at past results of the pitcher. Again, if ur doing this daily u already know which pitcher belongs to the systems. Originally Posted by Kevin Garnett
Hard to post an example sheet of that...Best way is to understand the rules and check the plays on ur own and compare it with the games im going to list. There are some guys out there who are doing this on their own (i would probably do the same). I think Lakey knows the system pretty well as far as i can judge it.
2. No! U can do lots of things additional. Im going with the rules like listed and keep those things yearly backtested. Im also working on my own NBA database at the moment and recently finished backtesting a lot of chase systems for soccer im willing to start playing as soon as the new seasons arrive. But im not going to post those soccer systems, i wanna see how this works out without having any public being involved. I also have to re-check the NBA chase system i posted here and start focusing on the new season already.
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07-01-13 02:42 AM #1325
- P2 CJ Wilson fade series lost = -9,14 units Originally Posted by Stifler
records:
S1: W 26 | L 0 (+26,00 units)
S2: W 23 | L 3 (-10,001 units)
S3: W 129 | L 5 (-16,655 units)
P1: W 15 | L 1 (+6,971 units)
P2: W 23 | L 2 (+1,536 units)
P3: W 31 | L 0 (+31,00 units)
pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, D Bet on next start
- P3 Z.Greinke fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P1 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez fade, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 U.Jimenez, B Bet on next start
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
olmec gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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07-01-13 05:09 AM #1326
01.07.2013
S3
(A Bet) Tor: Toronto 1,694 1,44u
(A Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,588 1,70u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
GeorgeLynch gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
shysta gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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07-01-13 09:40 AM #1327
Thx, it reachs me to bet the s1-3 systems. It's not so difficult I mean the hard work is to sort each serie out each day. How is it easy to sort out? Also in s1+2 you have to mark the wins and losses to check the streaks. Would be great you could give a screenshot of your sheet with the parameters. Originally Posted by Stifler
Where I can read after which criteria the teams are chosen?Last edited by Kevin Garnett; 07-01-13 at 09:55 AM.
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07-01-13 10:31 AM #1328
Just have looked through the games and wonder. Why have you faded Phil in s2? There was no streak before. Originally Posted by Stifler
26.06.2013
S1
(A Bet) Col fade: Boston 1,578 1,32u
S2
(A Bet) Phil fade: San Diego 2,08 0,926u
S3
(B Bet) LAA fade: Detroit 1,704 1,42u | Detroit 1,704 3,438u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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07-01-13 11:03 AM #1329
which parameter? The rules are listed in post #1. Just use them daily to sort out the games. Originally Posted by Kevin Garnett
Divide the streaks in home/road games and u will most likely found the 3 games losing streak before.Just have looked through the games and wonder. Why have you faded Phil in s2? There was no streak before.
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07-01-13 02:18 PM #1330
All right, under the s2 rules doesn't stand something of home/road games to separate them so I haven't use it. Originally Posted by Stifler
Yes, but why you use these teams in s1, s2 and s3, no info of that.
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