Thanks Stifler, I was lost!
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06-08-13 09:50 AM #1191
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06-08-13 04:37 PM #1192
- SF line added + S3 LAA fade moves to B bet
08.06.2013
S1
(B Bet) Col fade: San Diego 2,51 0,662u | San Diego 2,20 1,385u
S2
(C Bet) KC fade:Minnesota 2,33 0,752u | Houston 3,11 0,83u | Houston 2,70 1,519u
(B Bet) LAA: LA Angels 2,26 0,794u | LA Angels 2,36 1,319u
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cubs 1,847 1,18u
S3
(B Bet) LAA fade: Boston 1,676 1,48u | Boston 1,61 4,066u
P3
(D Bet) M.Bumgarner: SF 1,943 1,06u | SF 1,877 2,349u | SF 2,32 3,34u | SF 1,99 7,827u
(A Bet) M.Bumgarner fade: Arizona 1,917 1,09u
(A Bet) C.Wilson fade: Boston 1,694 1,44u
(A Bet) M.Latos: Cincinnati 1,649 1,54u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
jesramos gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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06-08-13 08:24 PM #1193
Stifler,
Are you playing SF or Arizona on today's match?
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06-09-13 05:03 AM #1194
records:
Originally Posted by Stifler
S1: W 20 | L 0 (+20,00 units)
S2: W 15 | L 1 (-5,909 units)
S3: W 101 | L 4 (-21,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 16 | L 1 (+3,676 units)
P3: W 17 | L 0 (+17,00 units)
pending:
- P3 J.Vargas fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, C Bet on next start
- P3 M.Scherzer, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 B.Norris fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 G.Gonzalez, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil fade, D Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 17.06.2013
- S2 KC fade, D Bet on 09.06.2013
- S2 Pit fade, B Bet on 09.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-09-13 05:04 AM #1195
im always playing both sides... Originally Posted by jesramos
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06-09-13 05:40 AM #1196
@ExeRok
I do like the idea of making some live changing during the season, if the spot looks uncomfortable. Still its not easy to make the decision right before the series starts. Ofc its easy coming in afterwards talking about what u should have done in those situations. Honestly taking out the Hou fade series. A+B Bet was lost on Colorado, C+D bet on LAA. To be honest LAA looks like getting hot at the moment winning alot over a span of like 12 games. The only reason skipping them would be on the high odds, cause they seem to be playable in this situation, especially playing @ home vs houston.
If i dont like a spot or if its getting to juicy im always keeping a parlay in mind, cause i feel i can pick a good soccer spot with small odds. The Spain U21 game would have been a winner on the D bet lately aswell. So what im trying to say is, the whole system has basic rules, but if i feel its needed im going to make adjustments or changings. All that matters is making money for the season.
I dont like the point with the single bets. Ofc u picked out the best records for the system and live season, but those stats will even long run.
Thats just my point of view. I dont wanna start an endless discussion here...
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06-09-13 06:05 AM #1197
09.06.2013
S2
(D Bet) KC fade:Min 2,33 0,752u | Hou 3,11 0,83u | Hou 2,70 1,519u | Houston - waiting on line movement
(B Bet) Pit fade: Cubs 1,847 1,18u | Cubs 2,08 2,019u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
comala57 gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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06-09-13 10:59 AM #1198
- Houston line added.
09.06.2013
S2
(D Bet) KC fade:Min 2,33 0,752u | Hou 3,11 0,83u | Hou 2,70 1,519u | Houston 2,56 2,629u
(B Bet) Pit fade: Cubs 1,847 1,18u | Cubs 2,08 2,019u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-09-13 11:04 AM #1199
Many of the points you mentioned, I already mentioned too. But since we are 2 foreigners talking, it's hard to fully understand each other Originally Posted by Stifler
Whole purpose of my post was to make suggestion about how to improve your main goal of "making money for the season". Nothing more. Forget single bets, it's just part of my routine and not an alternative of any kind. As I mentioned before they were not checked with odds, so it can be -EV to bet even the 70+% ones. But 70% of right side can be usefull information, that's why I posted those stats. And this is not the case of bashing after result is known. Again I wrote that if there was 1 lose to date, nobody would even care about prices. But losses happened with LA, and I'm sure there are some more "overpriced Angels" left in the system, other than actual Angels.
! So skipping cause of odds was my whole point. System is built around getting enough winners, while minimizing losses. And in some way, one more of it's purposes is to not care about the price, because it's to win 1u for chase. Losses always happen eventually, and that's when prices make their appearance. So between system producing sides, and actually putting them into play there is space for improvement on system's perfomance. You wait for line movements, re-evaluate single series, add parlays as a part of it, so you know what proccess I'm talking about. This is where "filtering by price" should happen (or list of teams should be made before season). This is where you care more about risked unites, that the fact that you actually play Angels in poor form. To hell with their form and judging after the fact. Royals were in an equally bad streak, but their series lost only 15u. Angels on last game alone were 30+. In a long run KC will lose more than Angels, but they won't need forever to break even for their personal +/- units record in systems. And with purpose being "making money this season" you can earn those 15u lost on Kansas in 2 days, nobody would even sweat about it. So I hope the point about neccesity and where it should happen is understandable.
I don't have enough knowledge to give anything close to full list of teams that should be excluded, but examples from previous post should give an idea. Big city franchises, LA franchises in particular. Their WNBA team failed to cover 11 point and 17 point spreads, and escaped with 1-1 su in overtime. But no worries, next game they will have atleast -10 again. Angels were the same in MLB, 1.5 odds with 0-3 ice cold form. Lakers were the same in NBA whole season, 8 games under .500 and getting double digit pointspreads. And Charlotte was even worse than them ATS, with a big gap. Some screaming examples like that shouldn't be hard to find. And they are worth it. In an unlucky season like this it's obvious, why you should let potential winnings of Angels for system go.
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06-09-13 12:54 PM #1200
Which Minnesota game are you playing? Originally Posted by Stifler
- Houston line added.
09.06.2013
S2
(D Bet) KC fade:Min 2,33 0,752u | Hou 3,11 0,83u | Hou 2,70 1,519u | Houston 2,56 2,629u
(B Bet) Pit fade: Cubs 1,847 1,18u | Cubs 2,08 2,019u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-09-13 12:59 PM #1201
Jesramos, can you count to potatoe?!
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06-09-13 01:04 PM #1202
I don't get your comments, Are you trying to be sarcastic or are you a comedian? Which is it captain obvious? 👏
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06-09-13 01:08 PM #1203
Here's a hint, neither. But this chase thread is on Nationals game 1, game 2 if necessary. Originally Posted by jesramos
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...-fades-p7.html
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06-09-13 01:28 PM #1204
I looked at the picks today Cubs and Houston... and said.. ok remember to place the bet on the Two worst teams...
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I made a mistake and bet on Florida and Cubs...
Florida.. damit that wasn't on the list. i messed this one up.
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06-09-13 03:08 PM #1205
Thanks for the update, I appreciate it that.👍 Originally Posted by whtsox13
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06-09-13 05:52 PM #1206
- S2 KC series lost = -5,73 units Originally Posted by Stifler
records:
S1: W 20 | L 0 (+20,00 units)
S2: W 16 | L 2 (-10,639 units)
S3: W 101 | L 4 (-21,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 16 | L 1 (+3,676 units)
P3: W 17 | L 0 (+17,00 units)
pending:
- P3 J.Vargas fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, C Bet on next start
- P3 M.Scherzer, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 B.Norris fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 G.Gonzalez, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil fade, D Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 17.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-10-13 10:11 AM #1207
10.06.2013
S3
(A Bet) Bos fade: Tampa Bay 1,758 1,32u
2u play (A Bet) Tex: Texas 1,662 3,02u
P2
(C Bet) J.Guthrie fade: St.Louis 1,61 1,64u | Minnesota 2,35 1,956u | Detroit 1,725 6,339u
P3
(A Bet) D.Fister fade: Kansas City - waiting on line movement
potential plays:
- S3 Balti, if line <+100
- S3 SD, if line <+100
- S3 Cin fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 Det fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 Tor fade, if line +100 or more
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
sportscreep1 gave Stifler 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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06-10-13 03:29 PM #1208
- KC line added.
10.06.2013
S3
(A Bet) Bos fade: Tampa Bay 1,758 1,32u
2u play (A Bet) Tex: Texas 1,662 3,02u
P2
(C Bet) J.Guthrie fade: St.Louis 1,61 1,64u | Minnesota 2,35 1,956u | Detroit 1,725 6,339u
P3
(A Bet) D.Fister fade: Kansas City 2,24 0,806u
potential plays:
- S3 Balti, if line <+100
- S3 SD, if line <+100
- S3 Cin fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 Det fade, if line +100 or more
- S3 Tor fade, if line +100 or more
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-11-13 01:58 AM #1209
records: Originally Posted by Stifler
S1: W 20 | L 0 (+20,00 units)
S2: W 16 | L 2 (-10,639 units)
S3: W 102 | L 4 (-19,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 16 | L 1 (+3,676 units)
P3: W 18 | L 0 (+18,00 units)
pending:
- P3 J.Vargas fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, D Bet on next start
- P3 M.Scherzer, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 B.Norris fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 G.Gonzalez, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil fade, D Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 17.06.2013
- S3 Bos fade, B Bet on 11.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-11-13 04:49 AM #1210
11.06.2013
S3
(B Bet) Bos fade: Tampa Bay 1,758 1,32u | Tampa Bay 2,14 2,035u
(A Bet) Pit: Pittsburgh 1,909 1,10u
P3
(C Bet) J.Vargas fade: Hou 2,36 0,735u | KC 2,05 1,652u | Baltimore 1,813 4,166u
(B Bet) M.Scherzer: Detroit 1,855 1,17u | Detroit 1,606 3,581u
(B Bet) B.Norris fade: LA Angels 1,444 2,252u | Seattle 1,649 5,011u
potential plays:
- S3 Oak, if line <+100
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
BOA12 gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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06-11-13 05:42 PM #1211
- S3 Oak series added.
11.06.2013
S3
(B Bet) Bos fade: Tampa Bay 1,758 1,32u | Tampa Bay 2,14 2,035u
(A Bet) Pit: Pittsburgh 1,909 1,10u
(A Bet) Oak: Oakland 1,87 1,15u
P3
(C Bet) J.Vargas fade: Hou 2,36 0,735u | KC 2,05 1,652u | Baltimore 1,813 4,166u
(B Bet) M.Scherzer: Detroit 1,855 1,17u | Detroit 1,606 3,581u
(B Bet) B.Norris fade: LA Angels 1,444 2,252u | Seattle 1,649 5,011u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
UrQuan gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Brunborg gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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06-12-13 02:15 AM #1212
records: Originally Posted by Stifler
S1: W 20 | L 0 (+20,00 units)
S2: W 16 | L 2 (-10,639 units)
S3: W 105 | L 4 (-16,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 16 | L 1 (+3,676 units)
P3: W 21 | L 0 (+21,00 units)
pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, D Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil fade, D Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 17.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-12-13 05:09 AM #1213
12.06.2013
S1
(A Bet) Stl: St.louis 1,599 1,67u
S2
(A Bet) Cle fade: Texas 1,787 1,27u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
Grinder12000 gave Stifler 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
jesramos gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Valand gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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06-12-13 03:45 PM #1214
Stifler....
Very nice sweep yesterday.
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06-13-13 04:23 AM #1215
records: Originally Posted by Stifler
S1: W 20 | L 0 (+20,00 units)
S2: W 16 | L 2 (-10,639 units)
S3: W 105 | L 4 (-16,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 16 | L 1 (+3,676 units)
P3: W 21 | L 0 (+21,00 units)
pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, D Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil fade, D Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Stl, B Bet on 13.06.2013
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 24.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-13-13 05:35 AM #1216
13.06.2013
S1
(B Bet) Stl: St.louis 1,599 1,67u | St.Louis 1,725 3,683u
P3
H.Kuroda fade: Oakland 1,87 1,15u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
Points Awarded:
Lakey gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Brunborg gave Stifler 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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06-14-13 02:22 AM #1217
records: Originally Posted by Stifler
S1: W 21 | L 0 (+21,00 units)
S2: W 16 | L 2 (-10,639 units)
S3: W 105 | L 4 (-16,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 16 | L 1 (+3,676 units)
P3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, D Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez, B Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil fade, D Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 17.06.2013
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 24.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-14-13 03:34 AM #1218
14.06.2013
S2
(A Bet) Phil fade: Colorado 1,752 1,33u
S3
(A Bet) Cubs fade: NY Mets 1,787 1,27u
(A Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,69 1,45u
(A Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,709 1,41u
P2
(A Bet) CJ Wilson fade: NY Yankees 2,30 0,769u
(A Bet) G.Gonzalez fade: Cleveland 1,741 1,35u
P3
(B Bet) M.Bumgarner fade: Arizona 1,917 1,09u | Atlanta 1,735 2,844u
(B Bet) G.Gonzalez: Washington 2,26 0,794u | Washington 2,25 1,435u
(A Bet) J.Saunders fade: Oakland 1,503 1,988u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-14-13 11:58 PM #1219
Why are you playing the LAA under S3, but your playing the NYY under P2.. They are playing each other.. Why would you cough up juice?
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06-15-13 05:50 AM #1220
records: Originally Posted by Stifler
S1: W 21 | L 0 (+21,00 units)
S2: W 16 | L 2 (-10,639 units)
S3: W 107 | L 4 (-14,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 17 | L 1 (+4,676 units)
P3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, D Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P2 CJ Wilson fade, B Bet on next start
- P3 J.Saunders fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil fade, D Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 17.06.2013
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 24.06.2013
- S2 Phil fade, B Bet on 15.06.2013
- S3 Cubs fade, B Bet on 15.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-15-13 05:57 AM #1221
Just skip if u want to. NYY were dogs, so im not fully playing the B Bet on CJ Wilson fade to win 2 units like u would be doing now. Im going to play the B Bet to win 1,769 units, while u should play the next B Bet to win 2 units. If NYY would have won ur version would be the better one. In the end juice just gets important for the losing series, u dont pay juice on winning series. Originally Posted by Minnesota Niice
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06-15-13 06:58 AM #1222
15.06.2013
S2
(B Bet) Phil fade: Colorado 1,752 1,33u | Colorado 1,704 3,31u
S3
(B Bet) Cubs fade: NY Mets 1,787 1,27u | NY Mets 1,826 2,748u
P2
(D Bet) J.Guthrie fade: Stl 1,61 1,64u | Min 2,35 1,956u | Det 1,725 6,339u| Tampa 1,606 18,045u
(A Bet) J.Guthrie:Kansas City 2,52 0,658u
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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06-16-13 12:04 AM #1223
Hi Stiff,
Long time follower and fan. System did great last year and ... obviously not as strong this year. hopefully it turns around.
That said, I've always been a bit of a critic of risking 20 units to win 1 unit. I've always though, heck if you are throwing 20 units at a game to make 1 unit profit, why not throw 21 units at the game and make 2 units profit. 2 units profit is 100% more profit.
And should you lose, well you lost 21 units instead of 20.
I mean the thought is that the odds are less likely of a C or D loss, so why don't we cater to that. Obviously, to increase the bet sizes extremely will not be beneficial. but i think a certain balance might be efficient at Increasing profit.
Let me explain:
z cashflow.jpg
z chart.jpg
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06-16-13 12:09 AM #1224
OK I wanted to post it as pictures in my post. I see thats not working, but Stiffler I hope you look at it and tell me your feedback.
(THIS IS actually based off of a recent D bet with SF)
Here you see the Standard bet (what we have been doing) wins you ONE unit for any win.
The Incremental Bet, adjust this ... so that you risk MARGINALLY more, and profit much more. This can be adjusted by a factor.Last edited by illisdre; 06-16-13 at 12:14 AM.
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06-16-13 06:02 AM #1225
records: Originally Posted by Stifler
S1: W 21 | L 0 (+21,00 units)
S2: W 17 | L 2 (-9,639 units)
S3: W 107 | L 4 (-14,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 18 | L 1 (+5,676 units)
P3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, B Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P2 CJ Wilson fade, B Bet on next start
- P3 J.Saunders fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil fade, D Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 17.06.2013
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 24.06.2013
- S3 Cubs fade, C Bet on 16.06.2013
________________________________________ _____________________________________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
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